A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

Syndergaard is risky as hell too.

 

Not only has he missed the last 2 seasons, but he also missed a pile of time in 2017-2018, making only 32 starts in those 2 seasons combined.

 

He can fix it by being mentored by Eovaldi.

[mvp 78]

I would think, if we sign Semien or Baez, we'd pass on Iggy and hope Arrojo can be the utility guy. Maybe he can stay healthy sitting on the bench.

 

I think Baez will be considerably cheaper than Semien. You could still fit Iggy in there.

[moonslav59]

I think Baez will be considerably cheaper than Semien. You could still fit Iggy in there.

 

But why?

 

If we spend all that cash on Baez, we'll need every penny left over for the staff.

 

(Arroyo should be okay as a utility man, and we have Arauz/Downs.)

[mvp 78]

But why?

 

If we spend all that cash on Baez, we'll need every penny left over for the staff.

 

(Arroyo should be okay as a utility man, and we have Arauz/Downs.)

 

How much do you think Baez will be? Why do you think ownership will try to stay under the cap?

[moonslav59]

How much do you think Baez will be? Why do you think ownership will try to stay under the cap?

 

Assuming the lux tax structure stays about the same, I think it might depend on if we win it all, or not.

 

If we win, we may try to stay under another year. If we lose, I think we go over. We may go over, no matter what.

 

Even if we go over, spending $22-26M a year on Baez will mean the rest of the budget goes all to pitching. That might already take away too much from pitching, unless we are going over by a significant amount.

 

(I'm not very good at predicting FA contracts or arb raises.)

 

[mvp 78]

Assuming the lux tax structure stays about the same, I think it might depend on if we win it all, or not.

 

If we win, we may try to stay under another year. If we lose, I think we go over. We may go over, no matter what.

 

Even if we go over, spending $22-26M a year on Baez will mean the rest of the budget goes all to pitching. That might already take away too much from pitching, unless we are going over by a significant amount.

 

(I'm not very good at predicting FA contracts or arb raises.)

 

 

Even if we win it all, shouldn't we try to extend the window we have with the Devers/JD/Xander/Eovaldi/Sale core group by going over?

[Bellhorn04]

Even if we win it all, shouldn't we try to extend the window we have with the Devers/JD/Xander/Eovaldi/Sale core group by going over?

 

This is the next best thing to being in the room with Henry, Werner and Bloom.

[mvp 78]

This is the next best thing to being in the room with Henry, Werner and Bloom.

 

Get Werner out of that room ASAP.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No doubt, it's a huge risk, but so is signing Stroman to 6-7 years.

 

I think the short contract risks are better.

 

Personally, I'd offer ERod the QO, and if he takes it, look for a $12-15M pitcher. If he says no, look for a $30M Scherzer or two for $35M + Iggy.

 

I just don't see Bloom spending big on an old pitcher (especially one who just said he had a dead arm last night -- not what you invest in for an lcs start); it just goes against his goal of "building sustained contenders". If the Sox really thought they were one key guy away, maybe they trade for an albatross contract, most likely in some three-way deal where they also get a prospect back.

[moonslav59]

Even if we win it all, shouldn't we try to extend the window we have with the Devers/JD/Xander/Eovaldi/Sale core group by going over?

 

I agree, but I'm not sure how Henry sees it.

 

He might think spending $40 should improve us, and it should.

 

If we can get this far, this year and get better next year, why spend even more?

[moonslav59]

I just don't see Bloom spending big on an old pitcher (especially one who just said he had a dead arm last night -- not what you invest in for an lcs start); it just goes against his goal of "building sustained contenders". If the Sox really thought they were one key guy away, maybe they trade for an albatross contract, most likely in some three-way deal where they also get a prospect back.

 

I didn't say he'll do it.

 

I said I'd rather have an older guy for 2-3 years than Stroman for 6-7.

 

I'm not against 6-7 year deals, but only for a select few.

[sk7326]

I just don't see Bloom spending big on an old pitcher (especially one who just said he had a dead arm last night -- not what you invest in for an lcs start); it just goes against his goal of "building sustained contenders". If the Sox really thought they were one key guy away, maybe they trade for an albatross contract, most likely in some three-way deal where they also get a prospect back.

 

With the rotation - I don't see the team spending a lot of years. Now Rodriguez to me is an easy re-sign. There is some actual upside, and if he accepts the QO, nobody is hurt. And his own physical problems might make a team friendlier deal amenable. That said, if you can get Scherzer for a year or two it would be hard to say no. Personally, regardless of Rodriguez, kicking the tires on Zack Greinke for a short deal would be interesting.

[Bellhorn04]

I didn't say he'll do it.

 

I said I'd rather have an older guy for 2-3 years than Stroman for 6-7.

 

I'm not against 6-7 year deals, but only for a select few.

 

6-7 years for Stroman would be absolute lunacy. I don't see him getting that from anyone.

[moonslav59]

6-7 years for Stroman would be absolute lunacy. I don't see him getting that from anyone.

 

He's 30 and does not have a lot of wear and tear on his arm. Sure, he hasn't gone over 200 IP since 2017, but he's the best younger pitcher on the market. I doubt he gets 5 or less years.

 

GMs desperate for pitching will bid up and up. The extra year gets him, IMO.

[moonslav59]

With the rotation - I don't see the team spending a lot of years. Now Rodriguez to me is an easy re-sign. There is some actual upside, and if he accepts the QO, nobody is hurt. And his own physical problems might make a team friendlier deal amenable. That said, if you can get Scherzer for a year or two it would be hard to say no. Personally, regardless of Rodriguez, kicking the tires on Zack Greinke for a short deal would be interesting.

 

ERod might say no to a QO.

[Bellhorn04]

He's 30 and does not have a lot of wear and tear on his arm. Sure, he hasn't gone over 200 IP since 2017, but he's the best younger pitcher on the market. I doubt he gets 5 or less years.

 

GMs desperate for pitching will bid up and up. The extra year gets him, IMO.

 

So you're foreseeing a radical change from last offseason to this one - a guy who settled for a QO getting a megadeal after a good season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Maybe no pitcher gets an offer for as long as even five years this offseason. The market and CBA status could neutralize each other. Another factor may depend on how the rest of this postseason goes -- like if the AL team wins it all with maybe one or two good starts (which, we're not even sure any more what that looks like, statistically).

[moonslav59]

So you're foreseeing a radical change from last offseason to this one - a guy who settled for a QO getting a megadeal after a good season.

 

What's radical?

 

He's had more than one good season. He sat out 2020.

 

His 2017 and 2019 seasons were better than 2021, in some ways

 

ERA+

145 in 2017

137 in 2019

133 in 2021

 

His WHIP improved greatly in 2021, so maybe other GMs will have the same doubts I do about signing him long term.

 

If Zack Wheeler can get 5 x $24M after never going over 196 IP or an ERA+ of 112, then yes, I think someone will give Stroman 6 or more years... hopefully not us.

[mvp 78]

6-7 years for Stroman would be absolute lunacy. I don't see him getting that from anyone.

 

I'd go 5. I wouldn't go 7.

[mvp 78]

So you're foreseeing a radical change from last offseason to this one - a guy who settled for a QO getting a megadeal after a good season.

 

Settled? I think it makes sense to take the first QO and then go to FA the following offseason.

 

1. He sat out 2020 so there was question about how well he'd perform.

 

2. If you have a QO attached to you, less teams are likely to bid on you.

 

3. He was given 18.9M for one year which almost doubled his career earnings.

 

4. Now he can go into FA after pitching a full season and not having a QO attached to him.

 

Seems like a good idea to me!

Edited October 18, 2021 by mvp 78

[sk7326]

ERod might say no to a QO.

 

i think it is a nontrivial decision for him - especially with his health issues in the past. I'd be angling to try to lock him up for 3-4 years tho.

[moonslav59]

I'd go 5. I wouldn't go 7.

 

Even 5 is too much, but it always takes at least 1 more year to get the best on the market, each year.

 

To me, he's too hit and miss to give more than 3-4 years. His even years have been meh.

[moonslav59]

i think it is a nontrivial decision for him - especially with his health issues in the past. I'd be angling to try to lock him up for 3-4 years tho.

 

He had a very good second half to 2021 (3.65 ERA last 15 starts), and with the defense behind him, he could get more than many people think.

 

BAbip:

 

.279 2016

.300 2017

.301 2018

.318 2019

n/a 2020

 

.364 2021

 

[Bellhorn04]

Settled? I think it makes since to take the first QO and then go to FA the following offseason.

 

1. He sat out 2020 so there was question about how well he'd perform.

 

2. If you have a QO attached to you, less teams are likely to bid on you.

 

3. He was given 18.9M for one year which almost doubled his career earnings.

 

4. Now he can go into FA after pitching a full season and not having a QO attached to him.

 

Seems like a good idea to me!

 

Point conceded.

[mvp 78]

Even 5 is too much, but it always takes at least 1 more year to get the best on the market, each year.

 

To me, he's too hit and miss to give more than 3-4 years. His even years have been meh.

 

Even years:

2014: 3.4 fWAR

2016: 3.3 fWAR

2018: 1.4 fWAR (worst season for sure)

2020: COVID

 

14 and 16 seem ok to me.

[moonslav59]

Even years:

2014: 3.4 fWAR

2016: 3.3 fWAR

2018: 1.4 fWAR (worst season for sure)

2020: COVID

 

14 and 16 seem ok to me.

 

ERA+

104

97

77

N/a

[mvp 78]

ERA+

104

97

77

N/a

 

Still seems like 1 "off" year.

[moonslav59]

Still seems like 1 "off" year.

 

For someone looking at a mega deal, I'd say a 97 ERA+ looks "off" of his norm or expectations, but sure, it's not really a bad year.

 

His record is not like Price or Scherzer's were when they went large and long.

 

ERA- looks like this...

94 2014

41 2015

104 2016

71 2017

130 2018

73 2019

n/a 2020

77 2021

 

Edited October 18, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

Settled? I think it makes sense to take the first QO and then go to FA the following offseason.

 

1. He sat out 2020 so there was question about how well he'd perform.

 

2. If you have a QO attached to you, less teams are likely to bid on you.

 

3. He was given 18.9M for one year which almost doubled his career earnings.

 

4. Now he can go into FA after pitching a full season and not having a QO attached to him.

 

Seems like a good idea to me!

 

 

.. unless he gets hurt.

[oldtimer]

Let's try to sign Iglesias who is an unrestricted FA. He is 30 and may pull down $12 per for 3 years. Getting rid of Perez and Richards would cover it.