A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[oldtimer]

The way the pen looks, now, keeping Whitlock there, next year makes sense.

 

I also think Houck's current profile projects better in the pen, maybe even as our closer.

 

That's why I'd like to see us sign 2 SP'er: one a solid #2 and the other one for depth, in case someone gets hurt or Seabold disappoints.

 

Even with Whitlock and Houck in next year's pen, we may still want to add another decent pen arm to make it 3 pitching additions to go along with a 1Bman.

 

 

I question Houck as a closer as his command under pressure may be a problem. Whitlock seems to be cooler under pressure and has excellent stuff, but both Whitlock and Houck may be better handling longer relief stints. Seabold remains to be proven.

I was thinking one left handed starter and one solid setup man/Closer. I too would look for a first baseman with good defensive skills and also for a catcher although they are hard to come by at a decent cost.

[Nick]

The way the pen looks, now, keeping Whitlock there, next year makes sense.

 

I also think Houck's current profile projects better in the pen, maybe even as our closer.

 

That's why I'd like to see us sign 2 SP'er: one a solid #2 and the other one for depth, in case someone gets hurt or Seabold disappoints.

 

Even with Whitlock and Houck in next year's pen, we may still want to add another decent pen arm to make it 3 pitching additions to go along with a 1Bman.

 

 

Absolutely no way in hell.

 

If you have a starter quality pitcher, you let him start. Whitlock is such a pitcher. That's what the management has stated they want to do. He's under team control for another 5 years. If a guy can take the ball every 5th day, 32 times a year, then that's what you do with him.

 

Starting pitching is more expensive than relievers. We can have cheap options in Pivetta and Whitlock.

 

 

Sale

Eovaldi

Pivetta

 

add

Whitlock

Houck

 

If we find others in our system, then you let them compete for either as a starter or as a reliever.

[mvp 78]

Absolutely no way in hell.

 

If you have a starter quality pitcher, you let him start. Whitlock is such a pitcher. That's what the management has stated they want to do. He's under team control for another 5 years. If a guy can take the ball every 5th day, 32 times a year, then that's what you do with him.

 

Starting pitching is more expensive than relievers. We can have cheap options in Pivetta and Whitlock.

 

 

Sale

Eovaldi

Pivetta

 

add

Whitlock

Houck

 

If we find others in our system, then you let them compete for either as a starter or as a reliever.

 

Houck isn't a starter. He needs to go to the pen.

[oldtimer]

Looking at our top ten prospect list and finding Downs fairly high doesn't agree with his stats at AAA. Nor does Groome, who hasn't been very effective ,up so high.

[a700hitter]

Think of all the viking helmets this ownership group could sell...

They could recoup the money they lost on all those Panda hats that they had to shred.

[Nick]

Houck isn't a starter. He needs to go to the pen.

 

He's done a pretty good imitating as a starter as he is now pitching in front of Richards and Perez.

[Bellhorn04]

He's done a pretty good imitating as a starter as he is now pitching in front of Richards and Perez.

 

At this point he's a starter who consistently gives between 4 and 5 good innings. Which is valuable, but not ideal, because it leaves a lot for the pen to cover every game.

[mvp 78]

At this point he's a starter who consistently gives between 4 and 5 good innings. Which is valuable, but not ideal, because it leaves a lot for the pen to cover every game.

 

Until he can get past the 18th batter, he's not someone I want to keep in the rotation. His ceiling in the pen as a lights out closer. I'm fine with him going there.

[notin]

Looking at our top ten prospect list and finding Downs fairly high doesn't agree with his stats at AAA. Nor does Groome, who hasn't been very effective ,up so high.

 

Downs is struggling in AAA, but he is also only 22, which makes him about 4.5 years younger than league average, and he also skipped AA and didn’t have a season in 2020. He’s got excuses…

[mvp 78]

Downs is struggling in AAA, but he is also only 22, which makes him about 4.5 years younger than league average, and he also skipped AA and didn’t have a season in 2020. He’s got excuses…

 

Groome has also dealt with so many injuries, that him just staying healthy and being relatively successful is a major win.

[notin]

Groome has also dealt with so many injuries, that him just staying healthy and being relatively successful is a major win.

 

I’ve run up the white flag in Groome. I know he’s had a slew of injuries and lost a season due to COVID, but he’s been in A ball for 5 years now. I have my doubts he’ll ever stay healthy enough to climb through the system…

[mvp 78]

I’ve run up the white flag in Groome. I know he’s had a slew of injuries and lost a season due to COVID, but he’s been in A ball for 5 years now. I have my doubts he’ll ever stay healthy enough to climb through the system…

 

He'll be in AA next year.

[notin]

He'll be in AA next year.

 

 

Unless he gets injured again..

[mvp 78]

Unless he gets injured again..

 

Forearm soreness in 2017. TJS in May 2018. Came back ready at the end of 2019 pitching decent. 2020 no season. 2021, has been healthy so far.

 

It was one injury.

[notin]

Forearm soreness in 2017. TJS in May 2018. Came back ready at the end of 2019 pitching decent. 2020 no season. 2021, has been healthy so far.

 

It was one injury.

 

Soreness isn’t an injury? Forearm soreness on a pitcher?

[mvp 78]

Soreness isn’t an injury? Forearm soreness on a pitcher?

 

It was the same injury that he had surgery for. Sox should have had him get TJS in 2017. He would have had a full season in 2019.

[notin]

It was the same injury that he had surgery for. Sox should have had him get TJS in 2017. He would have had a full season in 2019.

 

That would have been better.

 

He was the #12 overall pick who fell 11 slots due to dug ability questions. And while still in A ball, numerous players drafted before and after him are already in MLB, including other pitchers taken from high school that year…

[mvp 78]

That would have been better.

 

He was the #12 overall pick who fell 11 slots due to dug ability questions. And while still in A ball, numerous players drafted before and after him are already in MLB, including other pitchers taken from high school that year…

 

He fell because of signability concerns and questionable makeup (because of his idiot father). I don't believe durability was part of that.

[notin]

He fell because of signability concerns and questionable makeup (because of his idiot father). I don't believe durability was part of that.

 

 

Exactly. But it’s a huge factor now

[mvp 78]

Exactly. But it’s a huge factor now

 

As much of a factor as it is for Chris Bassitt, Walker Buehler, Mike Clevinger, Jacob DeGrom, Johnny Cueto, Danny Duffy, Nate Eovaldi, Tyler Glasnow, Gunner Hoglund, Michael Kopech, Dinelson Lamet, Joey Lucchesi, Lance Lynn, Steven Matz, Dustin May, Lance McCullers, Jordan Montgomery, Shohei Ohtani, Chris Paddack, Chris Sale, Ross Stripling, Noah Syndergaard, Jameson Taillon, Spencer Turnbull, Taijuan Walker, et al.

[Nick]

We just need to sign Schwarber. Team is pretty well set assuming no one gets hurt.

 

$20.000M SS Xander 2022, opt out?

$10.000M 1B Kyle FA

$07.000M CF Kike 2022

$04.575M 3B Devers A2, A3

$03.100M RF Hunter A3, A4

$00.650M LF Verdugo A1, A2, A3

$00.582M 2B Arroyo A1, A2, A3

$04.517M C Vaz 2022 team option

$22.000M DH JD 2022 he can opt out after 2021

 

That's only $75M before arbitration raises and Schwarber signing.

 

There should be enough money left over to upgrade the pitching staff.

Edited August 25, 2021 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

We just need to sign Schwarber. Team is pretty well set assuming no one gets hurt.

 

$20.000M SS Xander 2022, opt out?

$10.000M 1B Kyle FA

$07.000M CF Kike 2022

$04.575M 3B Devers A2, A3

$03.100M RF Hunter A3, A4

$00.650M LF Verdugo A1, A2, A3

$00.582M 2B Arroyo A1, A2, A3

$04.517M C Vaz 2022 team option

$22.000M DH JD 2022 he can opt out after 2021

 

That's only $75M before arbitration raises and Schwarber signing.

 

And pitchers.

[mvp 78]

We just need to sign Schwarber. Team is pretty well set assuming no one gets hurt.

 

$20.000M SS Xander 2022, opt out?

$10.000M 1B Kyle FA

$07.000M CF Kike 2022

$04.575M 3B Devers A2, A3

$03.100M RF Hunter A3, A4

$00.650M LF Verdugo A1, A2, A3

$00.582M 2B Arroyo A1, A2, A3

$04.517M C Vaz 2022 team option

$22.000M DH JD 2022 he can opt out after 2021

 

That's only $75M before arbitration raises and Schwarber signing.

 

There should be enough money left over to upgrade the pitching staff.

 

Schwarber's mutual option is for 11.5M. My guess is his AAV will be higher than 10.

[moonslav59]

Schwarber will get more than $10M a year.

[mvp 78]

There's already 47M tied up in two pitchers in the starting rotation. If ERod signs here, it'll be for more than his current 8.3M.

 

Contracts coming off the books:

ERod 8.3

Richards 8.5

Ottavino 7

Perez 4.5

Marwin 3

Beni 2.8

Pedroia reduced by 10

 

That's 44M to go towards FA, but need to factor in ARB raises for Devers, Pivetta and Verdugo. Maybe will have 34M to spend on FA? That can go quick if you are going for the top of the line players.

[moonslav59]

There's already 47M tied up in two pitchers in the starting rotation. If ERod signs here, it'll be for more than his current 8.3M.

 

Contracts coming off the books:

ERod 8.3

Richards 8.5

Ottavino 7

Perez 4.5

Marwin 3

Beni 2.8

Pedroia reduced by 10

 

That's 44M to go towards FA, but need to factor in ARB raises for Devers, Pivetta and Verdugo. Maybe will have 34M to spend on FA? That can go quick if you are going for the top of the line players.

 

If ERod gets and takes a QO, that eats up almost half that amount.

[moonslav59]

I have a rough estimate of about $170M before we add anyone...

 

The budget outlook is a little murky, due to JD's opt out and a few options that might be viewed as borderline (not by me). Here is a look at the lux tax numbers for 2022 (by cots):

 

Locked Up: $100.5M

25.6 Sale

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

16.0 Price

9.38 Barnes

7.00 Kike

1.50 Sawamura

 

Arbs (2021 salary) $24.5

10.5 Devers 2 of 3 (4.6) YES

5.00 Renfroe 3 of 4 (3.1)

2.50 Plawecki 4 of 4 (1.6)

1.50 Brasier 2 of 3 (1.3)

0.90 Cordero 2 of 3 (800K)

2.50 Verdugo 1 of 3 (650K)

2.50 Pivetta 1 of 3 (614K)

1.10 Arroyo 1 of 3 (582K)

1.00 Taylor 1 of 4 (581K)

 

Pre-Arb Keepers (on 40 man):

D Hernandez

P Valdez

Houck

Dalbec

Whitlock

Duran

Groome

B Mata

Y Rios

C Seabold

C Wong

 

Pre-Arb Bubblers (on 40 man):

A Davis

Arauz

Bazardo

Ro Hernandez

H Potts

J Rosario

 

Player Opt Out or Mutual Option: ($19.5M)

22.0 JD (19.4 projected no opt out)

10.0 Schwarber (11.5 m/o w 3 b/o) projected no option

 

Team Options (my projection) 2021lux tax): ($7M)

10.0 w 1.5 b/o Richards (NO) 10.0

6.0 w 500K b/o Perez (NO) 5.0

7.0 w 250K b/o Vaz (YES) 4.5

3.5 w 250K b/o Andriese (NO) 2.1

 

Free Agents (2021 $$$ lux tax):

13.8 Pedey (Retired)

8.9 Ottavino

8.3 ERod (QO????)

3.0 Marwin (DFA'd)

2.8 Beni (paid to KCR-2021)

2.0 Robles

??? Santana

(NYY paid us $1.8M for Ottavino in 2021)

 

TOTAL BUDGET:

151.5M

+ 2.5M other 40man roster players

+15.5M Player Benefits

 

$170M

 

4-5 FA Pick-ups:

SP2 (1-3 years)

RP2 (1-3 years)

1B (1-2 years)

Utility (1-2 years)

Pitcher (1-2 years)

[Nick]

If ERod gets and takes a QO, that eats up almost half that amount.

 

what do we get if he turns us down?

[Nick]

Would Schwarber go for something like 6 year $90M?

[moonslav59]

what do we get if he turns us down?

 

I think a sandwich pick.