How will the regular season end for the 2021 Boston Red Sox

[sk7326]

FanGraphs gives the Rays, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees all better than 50 percent chances of advancing to the postseason:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

How is that possible?

No one is obligated to answer the question.

 

 

Well ... one possibility. Let's say you simulate the stretch run 10,000 times.

 

3300 times the Red Sox and Yankees make it

3300 times the Red Sox and Blue Jays make it

3400 times the Yankees and Blue Jays make it.

 

In this scenario the Red Sox make the playoffs in 66% of the scenarios while the Yankees and Blue Jays make it in 67% of them.

[moonslav59]

Well ... one possibility. Let's say you simulate the stretch run 10,000 times.

 

3300 times the Red Sox and Yankees make it

3300 times the Red Sox and Blue Jays make it

3400 times the Yankees and Blue Jays make it.

 

In this scenario the Red Sox make the playoffs in 66% of the scenarios while the Yankees and Blue Jays make it in 67% of them.

 

I know the two AL West teams have to pass 2-3 teams to make the WC slot, but they were give just 4% chances at making the playoffs:

 

73% Jays

62% Red Sox

56% Yanks

4.3% M's

4.1% A's

2.4% Rays (lose division)

 

[sk7326]

I know the two AL West teams have to pass 2-3 teams to make the WC slot, but they were give just 4% chances at making the playoffs:

 

73% Jays

62% Red Sox

56% Yanks

4.3% M's

4.1% A's

2.4% Rays (lose division)

 

 

Yeah - the Sox are in pretty good shape. If the depth continues to be tested, we'll see what happens. Brock Holt is not available - so the next ghost of Red Sox utility infielder past to sign might have to be Alex Cora himself.

[notin]

FanGraphs gives the Rays, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees all better than 50 percent chances of advancing to the postseason:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

How is that possible?

No one is obligated to answer the question.

 

Because two teams will go to the postseason, therefore the odds for all teams will add up to 200%, not 100%.

 

After all, when Team A clinches a spot and has 100% shot at making the postseason, it doesn’t eliminate the other two. One of them (or another of the unmentioned contenders) is still going to qualify…

[moonslav59]

Yes, the fact we have no sweeps aside from that ONE series is an issue as the Jay's keep winning and are 11-1 in their last 12 games

 

Maybe the Rays go 11-1, again.

 

Maybe they pull a Yankee flip.

 

I'll say it again, the last 12 games do not predict the next 12 games.

 

[harmony]

Because two teams will go to the postseason, therefore the odds for all teams will add up to 200%, not 100%.

 

After all, when Team A clinches a spot and has 100% shot at making the postseason, it doesn’t eliminate the other two. One of them (or another of the unmentioned contenders) is still going to qualify…

Good explanation. Thanks.

[moonslav59]

Cherry-picked best/worst recent sample size records out of last 31 games. (Min 8 game sample size)

 

Best

TOR: 15-2 in last 17

SEA: 8-4 in last 12

NYY: 16-12 in last 28

BOS: 15-14 in last 29

OAK: 7-7 in last 14

 

Worst:

TOR: 19-12 in last 31

SEA: 9-8 in last 17

BOS: 2-6 in last 8

NYY: 3-12 in last 15

OAK: 9-17 in last 28

 

[mvp 78]

Cherry-picked best/worst recent sample size records out of last 31 games. (Min 8 game sample size)

 

Best

TOR: 15-2 in last 17

SEA: 8-4 in last 12

NYY: 16-12 in last 28

BOS: 15-14 in last 29

OAK: 7-7 in last 14

 

Worst:

TOR: 19-12 in last 31

SEA: 9-8 in last 17

BOS: 2-6 in last 8

NYY: 3-12 in last 15

OAK: 9-17 in last 28

 

 

Really telling that the best you can do is 15-14 for the BOSOX.

[moonslav59]

Really telling that the best you can do is 15-14 for the BOSOX.

 

Indeed.

[vegasbob]

Been calling it 20-20 for the last 40 games for a month now. The reality of the 2021 Flawed Sox , excellently disguised pre A-S break. The power of the 162 game season.

[Kimmi]

I don't think the A's or the Mariners are quite as good as the three East teams. Of those three , the Yanks look the shakiest. The Jays look the strongest , but definitely have the toughest schedule. That could derail them. I still think the Sox have the clearest path to the wild card. And as we all know , from there anything can happen.

 

I fully endorse this post.

[Kimmi]

The Jays are exploding. 22 runs, today!

 

I'm not sure this is sustainable.

 

Maybe too much all at once.

 

I think they will have a rough patch like we did, and now the Yanks are having.

 

Maybe it's just hope.

 

The Jays, like the Yankees before them, are peaking too early. They, too, shall come back down to earth. In the meantime, the Sox are still pacing themselves, then BAM! The other playoff teams won't know what hit them.

[iortiz]

The Jays, like the Yankees before them, are peaking too early. They, too, shall come back down to earth. In the meantime, the Sox are still pacing themselves, then BAM! The other playoff teams won't know what hit them.

 

Toronto wont sustain this kind of hitting. They simply won't.

[notin]

Been calling it 20-20 for the last 40 games for a month now. The reality of the 2021 Flawed Sox , excellently disguised pre A-S break. The power of the 162 game season.

 

Considering a lot of people pegged them for 75 wins back in March and even lowered that total after the 0-3 start due to being swept by lowly Baltimore, that this team is going to win somewhere in between 86 and 97 games should be a victory of sorts and certainly has made them enjoyable to watch over the last 148 game stretch…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Considering a lot of people pegged them for 75 wins back in March and even lowered that total after the 0-3 start due to being swept by lowly Baltimore, that this team is going to win somewhere in between 86 and 97 games should be a victory of sorts and certainly has made them enjoyable to watch over the last 148 game stretch…

 

A LOT of us would have settled for the last-place 2020 Sox to get back in contention and play meaningful games in September. As a longtime fan, that's what I hope for every year. Summers are always better when the Red Sox still have a legitimate shot -- and that's not an elitist statement because after more than half a century of rooting, I'll never say -- like some people a few hours south of Boston -- that the season's a failure if my team doesn't win the final game (what a miserable way to go through life).

[notin]

A LOT of us would have settled for the last-place 2020 Sox to get back in contention and play meaningful games in September. As a longtime fan, that's what I hope for every year. Summers are always better when the Red Sox still have a legitimate shot -- and that's not an elitist statement because after more than half a century of rooting, I'll never say -- like some people a few hours south of Boston -- that the season's a failure if my team doesn't win the final game (what a miserable way to go through life).

 

Agreed.

 

Titles are fun. But let’s get real - not like I benefit from them beyond my viewing enjoyment. And if I enjoy July, August and September, a lousy October can’t take that away…

[moonslav59]

A LOT of us would have settled for the last-place 2020 Sox to get back in contention and play meaningful games in September. As a longtime fan, that's what I hope for every year. Summers are always better when the Red Sox still have a legitimate shot -- and that's not an elitist statement because after more than half a century of rooting, I'll never say -- like some people a few hours south of Boston -- that the season's a failure if my team doesn't win the final game (what a miserable way to go through life).

 

I hear you, and s***** seasons suck, but as a fan that went through 3 plus decades of coming up short, I'd choose A from below:

 

A) A ring every 3-5 years, some good years in between and maybe a last place or two every 4-6 years.

A ring every 8-12 years, but good teams just about every year in between and maybe 1-2 last placed every 20 years.

C) A ring every 13-20 years, competitive teams almost every year and no last place finishes in 20 years.

[mvp 78]

I hear you, and s***** seasons suck, but as a fan that went through 3 plus decades of coming up short, I'd choose A from below:

 

A) A ring every 3-5 years, some good years in between and maybe a last place or two every 4-6 years.

A ring every 8-12 years, but good teams just about every year in between and maybe 1-2 last placed every 20 years.

C) A ring every 13-20 years, competitive teams almost every year and no last place finishes in 20 years.

 

Well, we better get a ring in the next two years then!

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed.

 

Titles are fun. But let’s get real - not like I benefit from them beyond my viewing enjoyment.

 

I'm much different there. For me the 4 rings feel like a personal achievement, or at least a vindication of my fandom, after what I went through from 1969 to 2003.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I hear you, and s***** seasons suck, but as a fan that went through 3 plus decades of coming up short, I'd choose A from below:

 

A) A ring every 3-5 years, some good years in between and maybe a last place or two every 4-6 years.

A ring every 8-12 years, but good teams just about every year in between and maybe 1-2 last placed every 20 years.

C) A ring every 13-20 years, competitive teams almost every year and no last place finishes in 20 years.

 

It's ironic reading those scenarios and thinking that for fans born around the turn of the century, modern Red Sox fans are type A and Yankee fans are type B...

[mvp 78]

It's ironic reading those scenarios and thinking that for fans born around the turn of the century, modern Red Sox fans are type A and Yankee fans are type B...

 

Most Sox fans would have been delighted with winning a ring every 20 years.

[Bellhorn04]

Most Sox fans would have been delighted with winning a ring every 20 years.

 

Or at least they thought so before 2004.

[mvp 78]

I'm much different there. For me the 4 rings feel like a personal achievement, or at least a vindication of my fandom, after what I went through from 1969 to 2003.

 

2004 broke the seal. 2007 was the vindication that it wasn't a fluke. 2013 was the unexpected surprise. 2018 was the juggernaut I had never been able to route for.

[mvp 78]

Or at least they thought so before 2004.

 

Since the playoffs are a crapshoot, it's hard to sign onto any of those options.

[notin]

I'm much different there. For me the 4 rings feel like a personal achievement, or at least a vindication of my fandom, after what I went through from 1969 to 2003.

 

I’ll change my thoughts when they invite me to ride a parade float. I justify my fandom to nobody…

[Bellhorn04]

2004 broke the seal. 2007 was the vindication that it wasn't a fluke. 2013 was the unexpected surprise. 2018 was the juggernaut I had never been able to route for.

 

We've been like the San Antonio Spurs of MLB.

[Bellhorn04]

I’ll change my thoughts when they invite me to ride a parade float. I justify my fandom to nobody…

 

Do you not enjoy being able to talk smack a little better to Yankee fans now?

[mvp 78]

Do you not enjoy being able to talk smack a little better to Yankee fans now?

 

Not sure he's allowed to have fun.

[notin]

Or at least they thought so before 2004.

 

In 2003, the attitude was “just once before I die.” Bill Simmons even titled a book similarly “Now I Can Die In Peace.”

 

But after a few titles and a string of winning seasons, suddenly anything short of a title seems to be viewed as a failure to far too many…

[notin]

Do you not enjoy being able to talk smack a little better to Yankee fans now?

 

I do keep my smack talk largely based in the current season. At least until they break out that “27 rings” ********. Like those titles in the 1920s and 30s are supposed to be relevant today!? At the very least, trash talk needs to be limited to our current lifetimes, and nothing from before there were even 50 states is going to have much sting with me…