Clutch vs. choke - do these numbers mean anything?

[Bellhorn04]

Oddly enough it's the Yankees who inspired this thread.

 

I was reading a column by Joel Sherman on the acquisition of Gallo, and he mentioned that Gallo had some bad numbers in high leverage situations, and that he had this in common with Judge. So I went and looked it up and here's what I found (well, updated to August 8, 2021):

 

These numbers are all for regular season career:

 

PA/OPS

 

Gallo

 

Low leverage 988/824

Medium leverage 813/895

High leverage 416/710

 

Judge

 

Low leverage 1102/947

Medium leverage 793/966

High leverage 353/809

 

I also remembered iortiz talking about Montgomery, so here are his numbers:

 

Low leverage 542/544

Medium leverage 693/793

High leverage 214/707

 

Now for some Red Sox comps:

 

JD Martinez

 

Low leverage 2219/880

Medium leverage 1878/883

High leverage 1018/893

 

Now that's consistency!

 

Big Papi

 

Low leverage 4172/898

Medium leverage 3921/959

High leverage 1998/943

 

Could he possibly have focused harder in those bigger moments?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clutch vs. choke - do these numbers mean anything?

[dgalehouse]

I think it would be hard to get a consensus on what actually constitutes high leverage.

[Bellhorn04]

I think it would be hard to get a consensus on what actually constitutes high leverage.

 

This is a mathematical calculation based on the game situation-how close the score is, inning, men on base-which determines how much impact the at-bat has on the probable outcome of the game.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think it would be hard to get a consensus on what actually constitutes high leverage.

 

Game Seven ALCS: the visitors' go-ahead run gets gunned down at the plate and the home crowd is rocking in glee like it's 2003... but it was 2004. The very next batter pushes the mute button, bombing a home run to put the good guys ahead for good.

 

David Ortiz, top of the first inning, Yankee Stadium...

[dgalehouse]

Game Seven ALCS: the visitors' go-ahead run gets gunned down at the plate and the home crowd is rocking in glee like it's 2003... but it was 2004. The very next batter pushes the mute button, bombing a home run to put the good guys ahead for good.

 

David Ortiz, top of the first inning, Yankee Stadium...

 

I remember that well. And occasionally still watch the DVD.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I remember that well. And occasionally still watch the DVD.

 

Ortiz' two-run HR in the top of the first in Game 7 of the '04 ALCS is the most underrated and generally forgotten clutch moment in this Red Sox century. It wasn't a walk-off, and the game became a blow-out, but in that time and setting, it instantly changed a bloodthirsty crowd's maniacal mayhem into total dead silence.

[Bellhorn04]

Ortiz' two-run HR in the top of the first in Game 7 of the '04 ALCS is the most underrated and generally forgotten clutch moment in this Red Sox century. It wasn't a walk-off, and the game became a blow-out, but in that time and setting, it instantly changed a bloodthirsty crowd's maniacal mayhem into total dead silence.

 

Good call. I always count that as one of Big Papi's big moments too.

[Kimmi]

Bell, you are providing anecdotal evidence. You are always going to be able to find players who are seemingly clutch or seemingly chokers, but the data shows that there is no statistical significance to that data.

 

There is very little or no correlation in clutch or choking statistics from season to season.

[notin]

Game Seven ALCS: the visitors' go-ahead run gets gunned down at the plate and the home crowd is rocking in glee like it's 2003... but it was 2004. The very next batter pushes the mute button, bombing a home run to put the good guys ahead for good.

 

David Ortiz, top of the first inning, Yankee Stadium...

 

In many ways it was similar to JD’s grand slam. Obviously the effect on the crowd was different…

[notin]

Ortiz’ numbers in high leverage actually get a slight increase (about .011) from all the international walks. His rate of IBB in high leverage is nearly double his rate in other situations, although his unintentional walk rate is actually less.

 

While this doesn’t mean anything with regards to the existence of clutch (beyond maybe narrowing the gap a little) it does indicate a lot of MLB managers had some serious faith in him as a hitter in those high leverage spots, as they should have…

[notin]

Game Seven ALCS: the visitors' go-ahead run gets gunned down at the plate and the home crowd is rocking in glee like it's 2003... but it was 2004. The very next batter pushes the mute button, bombing a home run to put the good guys ahead for good.

 

David Ortiz, top of the first inning, Yankee Stadium...

 

My favorite Ortiz postseason story is that in that he actually got two walk off hits in that same series on the same day!!

 

His home run in game 4 came well past midnight, even out here in the Central Time Zone. And then later that day, he singled in Damon, who was able to “run all the way to New York!”

 

Two walkoff postseason hits on the same day - that has to be a record.

 

(If memory serves, the NLCS game that day between Houston and St. Louis also ended in a walkoff hit. 3 LCS walkoffs on the same day is just flat out awesome baseball.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In many ways it was similar to JD’s grand slam. Obviously the effect on the crowd was different…

 

Are you referring to JD's three-run HR in the bottom of the first in Game 1 of the 2018 ALDS? That was definitely a great moment for Sox fans watching in the stands or in front of TV sets.

 

To me, it wasn't so much a Sox-Yanks response -- even though after 3 Sox WS titles, Fox was still showing a million clips of Dent, Boone and Buckner for every Tek mitt-sandwich to ARod's puss. That shot was more like a clarion call to the MLB that Boston, with its new star clean-up man, was again a serious threat, after quick playoff exits the previous two years.

 

In '18 Martinez definitely delivered, leading the big leagues with 130 RBI in the regular season, and again in the postseason, with 14 RBI in 14 games.

[Bellhorn04]

Bell, you are providing anecdotal evidence.

 

Sorry, what anecdotal evidence did I provide?

[notin]

Are you referring to JD's three-run HR in the bottom of the first in Game 1 of the 2018 ALDS? That was definitely a great moment for Sox fans watching in the stands or in front of TV sets.

 

To me, it wasn't so much a Sox-Yanks response -- even though after 3 Sox WS titles, Fox was still showing a million clips of Dent, Boone and Buckner for every Tek mitt-sandwich to ARod's puss. That shot was more like a clarion call to the MLB that Boston, with its new star clean-up man, was again a serious threat, after quick playoff exits the previous two years.

 

In '18 Martinez definitely delivered, leading the big leagues with 130 RBI in the regular season, and again in the postseason, with 14 RBI in 14 games.

 

Wrong JD and wrong season. But I think you knew that…

[notin]

Are you referring to JD's three-run HR in the bottom of the first in Game 1 of the 2018 ALDS? That was definitely a great moment for Sox fans watching in the stands or in front of TV sets.

 

To me, it wasn't so much a Sox-Yanks response -- even though after 3 Sox WS titles, Fox was still showing a million clips of Dent, Boone and Buckner for every Tek mitt-sandwich to ARod's puss. That shot was more like a clarion call to the MLB that Boston, with its new star clean-up man, was again a serious threat, after quick playoff exits the previous two years.

 

In '18 Martinez definitely delivered, leading the big leagues with 130 RBI in the regular season, and again in the postseason, with 14 RBI in 14 games.

 

Unrelated follow up, but on the date (10/18/2004) Ortiz had two walk off postseason hit, the Astros also won their game by a score of 3-0 on a 3 run walkoff home run by Jeff Kent

 

Amazing day for baseball…

[dgalehouse]

We will never resolve these things. The analytic people will deny the existence of clutch, hot/cold , momentum, etc. all day. But it seems that the players, managers, coaches, etc. all believe in these things. Who is right? I don't know.

[iortiz]

Oddly enough it's the Yankees who inspired this thread.

 

I was reading a column by Joel Sherman on the acquisition of Gallo, and he mentioned that Gallo had some bad numbers in high leverage situations, and that he had this in common with Judge. So I went and looked it up and here's what I found (well, updated to August 8, 2021):

 

These numbers are all for regular season career:

 

PA/OPS

 

Gallo

 

Low leverage 988/824

Medium leverage 813/895

High leverage 416/710

 

Judge

 

Low leverage 1102/947

Medium leverage 793/966

High leverage 353/809

 

I also remembered iortiz talking about Montgomery, so here are his numbers:

 

Low leverage 542/544

Medium leverage 693/793

High leverage 214/707

 

Now for some Red Sox comps:

 

JD Martinez

 

Low leverage 2219/880

Medium leverage 1878/883

High leverage 1018/893

 

Now that's consistency!

 

Big Papi

 

Low leverage 4172/898

Medium leverage 3921/959

High leverage 1998/943

 

Could he possibly have focused harder in those bigger moments?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clutch vs. choke - do these numbers mean anything?

Yup. it means a lot. Numbers do not lie.

 

As I have said, it is a mental skill. It applies not only for baseball but at any situation in life.

 

It's clear that some players handle better the pressure than others. The easiest analysis in baseball is to look at RPs. Some can close and some simply do not, even if you consider similar pedigrees.

 

Interesting numbers of Gallo in clutch moments. He sucks.

[mvp 78]

 

 

Choke wins this round.

[dgalehouse]

Yup. it means a lot. Numbers do not lie.

 

As I have said, it is a mental skill. It applies not only for baseball but at any situation in life.

 

It's clear that some players handle better the pressure than others. The easiest analysis in baseball is to look at RPs. Some can close and some simply do not, even if you consider similar pedigrees.

 

Interesting numbers of Gallo in clutch moments. He sucks.

 

For sure , confidence and poise are important for success in anything. If doubt starts to creep in, you are headed for trouble in baseball or most anything else.

[notin]

Yup. it means a lot. Numbers do not lie.

 

As I have said, it is a mental skill. It applies not only for baseball but at any situation in life.

 

It's clear that some players handle better the pressure than others. The easiest analysis in baseball is to look at RPs. Some can close and some simply do not, even if you consider similar pedigrees.

 

Interesting numbers of Gallo in clutch moments. He sucks.

 

To be fair to Gallo, why would anyone ever pitch to him in a high leverage situation? There’s never been anyone behind him in that lineup that you feared with men on base…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

To be fair to Gallo, why would anyone ever pitch to him in a high leverage situation? There’s never been anyone behind him in that lineup that you feared with men on base…

 

This may be one of those (non-Bogie) X-factors that affects any quantitative data that debaters point to...

 

Consider, for instance, a great, deep batting order; we'll call them the '03 Red Sox. Imagine a lineup so productive it features eight 8 regulars with 85 or more RBIs. Who do you pitch around? Who do you pitch to? Who is "clutch"?

 

Top 3 '03 Red Sox BA/OPS (source: bb-ref)

2 outs, RISP: Manny .370/1.279; Todd Walker .343/.996; Bill Mueller .333/.912

 

Late & Close: Papi .306/1.071; Trot Nixon .303/1.064; Varitek .298/1.001

 

Tie Game: Kevin Millar .348/1.104; Manny .347/1.091; Nixon .317/1.037

 

Btw: Boston's RBI leader in '03 was Nomar with 105. He hit .228/.720 with 2 outs, RISP. Unclutch? ...or the one guy opposing teams refused to let beat them?

[User Name]

Chokers exist both in pitching and hitting, imo.

[Bellhorn04]

Chokers exist both in pitching and hitting, imo.

 

So good to see you, UN.

[User Name]

You sure? That's usually not the response my presence elicits around these parts.

[a700hitter]

Chokers exist both in pitching and hitting, imo.

And this debate will exist long after we are all dead, but we will still be right.

[illinoisredsox]

"Clutch" hitters seem to be able to relax more in high leverage situations, so they better able to do what they normally do. the guys who tense up can't do that. It doesn't mean the clutch hitter will get a hit every time nor that the choker won't come through once in a while.

 

Somebody mentioned Ortiz's two walkoffs in 2004. The second was a bloop into center field. If he gets better wood on it, Bernie Williams catches it and the game goes on.

 

Willie McCovey came up in the 7th game of the 1962 World Series with men on 2nd and 3rd and 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th; a hit would have won the Series for the Giants. He ripped a line drive right at Bobby Richardson. McCovey failed only in that he it the ball in a bad spot.

[User Name]

"Clutch" hitters seem to be able to relax more in high leverage situations, so they better able to do what they normally do. the guys who tense up can't do that. It doesn't mean the clutch hitter will get a hit every time nor that the choker won't come through once in a while.

 

Somebody mentioned Ortiz's two walkoffs in 2004. The second was a bloop into center field. If he gets better wood on it, Bernie Williams catches it and the game goes on.

 

Willie McCovey came up in the 7th game of the 1962 World Series with men on 2nd and 3rd and 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th; a hit would have won the Series for the Giants. He ripped a line drive right at Bobby Richardson. McCovey failed only in that he it the ball in a bad spot.

 

True, which is why we try to use large samples for better context. But your point about tensing up is a good one. My mom's old timey "boyfriend" was an international level softball pitcher, and he's explained this to me many times. It's anecdotal, but it's logically sound: A lot of the times, he could see some good hitters tense and grip their bat like they were a Yankees fan trying to choke out Boone up in clutch situations. The occasion was rare when they wouldn't pop up a changeup because they were so anxious to get the ball out of the park.

[notin]

This may be one of those (non-Bogie) X-factors that affects any quantitative data that debaters point to...

 

Consider, for instance, a great, deep batting order; we'll call them the '03 Red Sox. Imagine a lineup so productive it features eight 8 regulars with 85 or more RBIs. Who do you pitch around? Who do you pitch to? Who is "clutch"?

 

Top 3 '03 Red Sox BA/OPS (source: bb-ref)

2 outs, RISP: Manny .370/1.279; Todd Walker .343/.996; Bill Mueller .333/.912

 

Late & Close: Papi .306/1.071; Trot Nixon .303/1.064; Varitek .298/1.001

 

Tie Game: Kevin Millar .348/1.104; Manny .347/1.091; Nixon .317/1.037

 

Btw: Boston's RBI leader in '03 was Nomar with 105. He hit .228/.720 with 2 outs, RISP. Unclutch? ...or the one guy opposing teams refused to let beat them?

 

The two out/RISP is the most unfair evaluation.

 

If there is less than 2 out, and a runner on third - a fairly common game situation - then the sac fly is still possible, which has two benefits. 1) the hitter drives in a run, and therefore the “choke” is not applicable. 2) the hitter is not charged with an at bat, helping the BA, and maybe even helping the OPS to a lesser degree. (Hurts the OBP, but helps the SLG).

 

But two outs RISP - it’s a hit or walk and that’s it…

[notin]

We will never resolve these things. The analytic people will deny the existence of clutch, hot/cold , momentum, etc. all day. But it seems that the players, managers, coaches, etc. all believe in these things. Who is right? I don't know.

 

The Analytical Folks pour through tons and tons of data. But the players/coaches/managers have lived through it all, which should be more valuable.

 

When asked what the most useless stat was, Torii Hunter once said “whatever one tells you Derek Jeter is a bad defender.”

 

Needless to say, not all players are on board with analytics.

 

But then, some of their beliefs are also pretty out there. Wade Boggs thought eating chicken before every game made him a better hitter. Justin Moreau believed to be at his best, he had to leave his car at exactly 13 minutes after the hour. Nuke LaLoosh thought wearing women’s underwear made him a better pitcher.

 

So yes, I can see why some players’ wisdom might not be so sagely. And in the end, in a game dominated by math, I find myself trusting the math.

 

Except when it comes to Pat Tabler. That dude was a Clutch Freak Show…

[mvp 78]

Nuke LaLoosh thought wearing women’s underwear made him a better pitcher.

 

Hard to trust that guy since he was an escaped convict who made friends with a talking duck named Howard and ended up dying in Vietnam after being given an experimental drug by the Army.