Clutch vs. choke - do these numbers mean anything?

[moonslav59]

No one ever denied clutch exists, just that “clutch players” exist…

 

It seems like some people imply those who think it is not a repeatable skill deny even the existence of the concept.

 

(Haven't heard that in a while, though, so maybe they have realized the folly.)

[Bellhorn04]

It seems like some people imply those who think it is not a repeatable skill deny even the existence of the concept.

 

(Haven't heard that in a while, though, so maybe they have realized the folly.)

 

"Repeatable skill" is somewhat problematic terminology, IMO. What does it mean?

[moonslav59]

"Repeatable skill" is somewhat problematic terminology, IMO. What does it mean?

 

Good point. Just the word skill is enough.

 

Can a player repeat the skill in clutch situations in a better manner he does in non clutch situations.

 

It's really the same as saying it is a skill.

 

Papi had better hitting skills than most players and hit better in the clutch than most players by about the same amount. If his clutch stats were better than his non-clutch stats, could he sustain that over a long period of time?

 

With randomly generated numbers, would we see more than the expected amount of players with very good or very bad stats in the clutch? If yes, that would be evidence it is a sustainable skill. If not, it is evidence, but not conclusive proof, that clutch is not a skill.

[Bellhorn04]

Schilling vs. Kershaw

 

Schilling

Regular season ERA 3.46

Postseason ERA 2.23

Postseason 1.23 runs, or 36% better

 

Kershaw

Regular season ERA 2.48

Postseason ERA 4.19

Postseason 1.71 runs, or 69% worse

[moonslav59]

Schilling vs. Kershaw

 

Schilling

Regular season ERA 3.46

Postseason ERA 2.23

Postseason 1.23 runs, or 36% better

 

Kershaw

Regular season ERA 2.48

Postseason ERA 4.19

Postseason 1.71 runs, or 69% worse

 

Wouldn't you expect these types of variances by randomly generating numbers based on the playoff sample sizes and regular season stats?

 

How does just showing one pitcher did way better than another prove it is because the sample size was mostly clutch.

 

If you looked at pitcher stats for Monday vs Tuesday or the moth of June vs the month of July, you'd see similar variances, but you'd probably not claim Kershaw has a special Monday or June skill that others do not possess, right?

[iortiz]

Schilling vs. Kershaw

 

Schilling

Regular season ERA 3.46

Postseason ERA 2.23

Postseason 1.23 runs, or 36% better

 

Kershaw

Regular season ERA 2.48

Postseason ERA 4.19

Postseason 1.71 runs, or 69% worse

This!

 

As I said it before, Kershaw hasn't been good in POs. He is a different pitcher in POs. His skill handling pressure is mediocre. Numbers don't lie and his POs appearances are not small.

[moonslav59]

This!

 

As I said it before, Kershaw hasn't been good in POs. He is a different pitcher in POs. His skill handling pressure is mediocre. Numbers don't lie and his POs appearances are not small.

 

His Tuesday sample size is large, too.

[Bellhorn04]

Wouldn't you expect these types of variances by randomly generating numbers based on the playoff sample sizes and regular season stats?

 

How does just showing one pitcher did way better than another prove it is because the sample size was mostly clutch.

 

If you looked at pitcher stats for Monday vs Tuesday or the moth of June vs the month of July, you'd see similar variances, but you'd probably not claim Kershaw has a special Monday or June skill that others do not possess, right?

 

Kershaw's highest monthly ERA is 2.84.

 

I think you would have to do an awful lot of digging to find that random sample you're looking for.

[moonslav59]

Kershaw's highest monthly ERA is 2.84.

 

I think you would have to do an awful lot of digging to find that random sample you're looking for.

 

I believe studies have shown that randomly generated samples mirror almost exactly what happens in reality. Kimmi knows more about this, but I do remember reading the linked articles she provided, long ago.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I believe studies have shown that randomly generated samples mirror almost exactly what happens in reality. Kimmi knows more about this, but I do remember reading the linked articles she provided, long ago.

 

 

It makes no sense with respect to Kershaw's numbers. Not with a disparity that big.

[moonslav59]

It makes no sense with respect to Kershaw's numbers. Not with a disparity that big.

 

You don't think, if you flip a coin in 100 times sample sizes- a million times, one or two might come up 75 heads?

[Bellhorn04]

You don't think, if you flip a coin in 100 times sample sizes- a million times, one or two might come up 75 heads?

 

According to this site, the chance of flipping 75 heads out of 100 is 0.0000001913, i.e. infinitesimal.

 

https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/coin-flip-probability

[moonslav59]

According to this site, the chance of flipping 75 heads out of 100 is 0.0000001913, i.e. infinitesimal.

 

https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/coin-flip-probability

 

How about 73 Heads?

 

LOL

[mvp 78]

It makes no sense with respect to Kershaw's numbers. Not with a disparity that big.

 

And with him, his Sept/Oct numbers are in line with the rest of his career, so it's not like he is wearing down at the end of the season. HIS OPSa in high leverage situations is pretty good too.

[moonslav59]

According to this site, the chance of flipping 75 heads out of 100 is 0.0000001913, i.e. infinitesimal.

 

https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/coin-flip-probability

 

So you'd expect about 1 time of 74 heads per 1 million sample sizes.

 

~2 per million at 73.

 

~1 per 100K at 72 (or 6 per million).

 

2 per 100K at 71 (16 per million).

4 per 100K at 70.

 

Maybe had I said 70, my point would have been more realistic.

 

Edited August 16, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

If it's a skill, what happened to Josh Beckett in 2008-2009?

 

His regular season ERA those 2 years was 3.93. His career was 3.88.

 

Before 2008, he was on pace to become one of the most "clutch" pitchers in the history of MLB.

 

The rest of his post season saw him have a 7.71 ERA (18 ERs in 21 IP)

 

How about Mr. Choke Barry Bonds?

[dgalehouse]

It's questionable if most post season stats are a large enough sample to form any conclusions.

[Bellhorn04]

If it's a skill, what happened to Josh Beckett in 2008-2009?

 

His regular season ERA those 2 years was 3.93. His career was 3.88.

 

Before 2008, he was on pace to become one of the most "clutch" pitchers in the history of MLB.

 

The rest of his post season saw him have a 7.71 ERA (18 ERs in 21 IP)

 

Now you're the one trying to chop it up into tiny samples.

 

At least with Kershaw and Schilling the samples are a decent size.

[moonslav59]

Now you're the one trying to chop it up into tiny samples.

 

At least with Kershaw and Schilling the samples are a decent size.

 

Yes, both have pitched a lot of playoff innings: close to a full season, each.

 

189 Kershaw 4.19 ERA/1.074 WHIP

His worst ERA was 4.26 in 108 IP, then 3.39 in 2021 and he's had 3 seasons with a worse WHIP than 1.074 and a couple more rather close.

 

133 Schilling 2.23 ERA/0.968 WHIP

His best season ERA was 2.35 and 2.54 and WHIP 0.968 and 0.990

 

These two certainly look like evidence to support the "clutch" player claim, but it does not prove it.

 

It can't be proved, either side.

 

[moonslav59]

Now you're the one trying to chop it up into tiny samples.

 

At least with Kershaw and Schilling the samples are a decent size.

 

Schilling never had 2 series in a row with awful numbers, let alone 3, like Beckett.

 

Beckett's 73+ IP sample size was pretty significant, before the boom came down.

 

How about Mr. October, himself? Reggie Jackson. No denying the guy went on a rampage in the playoffs for quite some time, but then what happened?

 

He went about 218 PAs being "da man," but then went 20 for 91 (.220) over his last 100 PAs.

 

He still had an OPS over .810 in that time frame during the regular season, so did he just lose that "clutch skill?"

 

Maybe, he wasn't really all that clutch and just got hot in a few late season series.

 

Career

.846 OPS

.804 Late & Close

.855 High Leverage

.885 post Season

 

Edited August 16, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Speaking of Beckett, his 2 biggest clutch games were Game 6 of the 2003 WS, and Game 5 of the 2007 ALCS.

 

Now doesn't the fact that he came up clutch twice like that show that it's a 'repeatable skill'?

[moonslav59]

Speaking of Beckett, his 2 biggest clutch games were Game 6 of the 2003 WS, and Game 5 of the 2007 ALCS.

 

Now doesn't the fact that he came up clutch twice like that show that it's a 'repeatable skill'?

 

He repeated sucking many times, too.

[Bellhorn04]

He repeated sucking many times, too.

 

Most pitchers would kill for Beckett's postseason resume.

[moonslav59]

Is everyone who ever did great in a lot of clutch situations definitely clutch, or could some just have gotten lucky?

 

And, is everyone who ever did very poorly in a lot of clutch situations definitely chokes, or could some just have been unlucky?

 

If you answer yes, some can, how can you tell them apart?

 

We all know baseball is a game of streaks- good and bad. Doesn't it seem likely that some players just had a good or bad streak at the right or wrong time?

 

Few had it happen very often. Most had ups and downs. Kinda like any given point is a season or career.

 

If I just said, let's randomly choose several 2-3 week periods out of every player's career to reach the sample sizes of Schilling and Kershaw, how many sample sizes would be almost exactly like their career norm? How many would be significantly higher or lower? How many would reach the extremes they reached?

[moonslav59]

Most pitchers would kill for Beckett's postseason resume.

 

Of course, but did he lose the skill, or just have some bad luck? It's not like 4 starts is a tiny sample size, when his whole career had just 13 GS'd.

 

Which begs the question, Was the great part just good luck?

 

Maybe calling anyone with a sample size that small anything is just plain wrong.

[Bellhorn04]

Of course, but did he lose the skill, or just have some bad luck? It's not like 4 starts is a tiny sample size, when his whole career had just 13 GS'd.

 

Which begs the question, Was the great part just good luck?

 

Maybe calling anyone with a sample size that small anything is just plain wrong.

 

My recollection is that in 2008, he was pitching hurt to some degree. They didn't know if he was going to be able to start Game 6 of the ALCS, and it was obvious he was struggling, but he pitched 5 innings and got the win.

 

As I said to Kimmi earlier, I don't believe that clutch or choke are something pure and undiluted. I think it's more a belief that some guys are more confident or comfortable under pressure. Maybe the confidence factor comes from getting off to a good start in your postseason career. That would apply to guys like Schilling and Beckett. And we know that the postseason thing was a big burden on Price's head, and Kershaw's as well.

[Bellhorn04]

How about Mr. Choke Barry Bonds?

 

Barry Bonds only became clutch after he discovered the magic of steroids. The juice made him a lot stronger physically and mentally.

 

A-Rod was most likely on seriously good juice in the 2009 postseason as well.

[moonslav59]

Barry Bonds only became clutch after he discovered the magic of steroids. The juice made him a lot stronger physically and mentally.

 

A-Rod was most likely on seriously good juice in the 2009 postseason as well.

 

So, taking steroids can make you clutch?

 

Very interesting.

 

Is that because your head grows nigger, and studies show bigger heads equals intelligence, right?

[moonslav59]

My recollection is that in 2008, he was pitching hurt to some degree. They didn't know if he was going to be able to start Game 6 of the ALCS, and it was obvious he was struggling, but he pitched 5 innings and got the win.

 

 

No, it was because VMart was catching him, but then you'd have to admit CERA is real.

 

Such a conundrum.

 

lol

[User Name]

CERA is terrible.

 

Clutch is not a repeatable skill.