trade deadline

[Hugh2]

Houck has great stuff and could be a meaningful starter going forward. He does need to get his stuff over more to last more than 5 innings and the announcers mentioned he throws his warmup pitches every inning at full velocity, which further shortens his stay. Like a lot of less experienced pitchers, he has to pitch instead of just throw. He could be a #2 starter on the team if he makes that jump.

 

What we saw from Houk last night is exactly what the scouting says about him, and EXACTLY what we saw happen down in Worcester. He's only a two-pitch guy, but those two pitches are REALLY good. Problem is, 2nd time through the order he starts getting hit. It happened in Worcester and it happened last night.

 

They even had Houck stop throwing his other pitches, he's all fastball-slider now. That's a reliever profile. I think Houk gets more spot starts this year like he did last night, he may even stay in the rotation for a few more cycles down this rough stretch of few days off and heavy RHH lineups. But I think we see him in the bullpen quick, and I think he's going to excel there.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

It was only one game, but last night's game definitely provided some support to the idea that the Red Sox need to trade for a relief arm more than a starting pitcher. 1. Houck is not fully stretched out, but he looked good, and you have to wonder if there is an SP on the trade market who is better than Houck? Or better than E-Rod? Or better than Pivetta? Berrios and S.Gray are going to be almost impossible to acquire and so who is left that profiles as much better than Houck, E-Rod, Pivetta? Are people sold on Kyle Gibson? 2. Ottavino has a history of late season decline, and he has a history of sucking in the playoffs. Accordingly, maybe a 7th or 8th inning relief pitcher is a high priority. Just because the Red Sox bullpen has been awesome doesn't mean it will continue to be awesome.

 

For those who want a starter, the challenge is still there: name the starter and tell us how that starter is better than Houck, E-Rod, Pivetta? I've played around with the idea too, but I can't find anyone who would be a clear and definitive rotation upgrade over what the Red Sox already have for rotation spots three and four.

Edited July 23, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Hugh2]

It was only one game, but last night's game definitely provided some support to the idea that the Red Sox need to trade for a relief arm more than a SP. 1. Houck is not fully stretched out, but he looked good, and you have to wonder if there is an SP on the trade market who is better than Houck? Or better than E-Rod? Or better than Pivetta? Berrios and S.Gray are going to be almost impossible to acquire and so who is left that profiles as much better than Houck, E-Rod, Pivetta? Are people sold on Kyle Gibson? 2. Ottavino has a history of late season decline, and he has a history of sucking in the playoffs. Accordingly, maybe a 7th or 8th inning relief pitcher is a high priority. Just because the Red Sox bullpen has been awesome doesn't mean it will continue to be awesome.

 

For those who want a starter, the challenge is still there: name the starter and tell us how that starter is better than Houck, E-Rod, Pivetta? I've played around with the starter idea too, but I can't find anyone who fits the profile of a clear rotation upgrade, and the Red Sox aren't getting Berrios or S.Gray.

 

Houck can turn a lineup around a second time, you can remove him from that list. But I think you're 100% spot on with the spirit of this comment. The Sox pitching has been great but it's been great because the bottom of our rotation is good. It's almost like we've been pitching with 5 #3 starters all year, with some guys pitching a little better than that at times.

 

It feels like every more we could make on the trade market would just be a sideways move. It makes no sense to trade for a starter.

 

I think they get a 1Bman, and maybe a bullpen arm, but they might like what they have coming up in the bullpen and what starters can solidify the pen when Sale is back.

[Bellhorn04]

You “pink hats” want to win this thing you move on Scherzer if available?

Scherzer wins you a ring! End of story

 

Solidify the Pen

Upgrade at 1b

Find a bench bat

 

You're still a tool!

[dgalehouse]

Houck looks like the real deal. He belongs in the rotation. Along with Sale , he will really help to solidify things.

[mvp 78]

 

Agreed.

[notin]

The needs are clearly 1b, RP and maybe a SP. Some blogs say leadoff hitter, but I’d be surprised.

 

The bigger question to me is - who do the Sox have to give up? Who do you suppose is available?

[Kimmi]

Cruz to the Rays.. Will the Sox counter by making a move for Rizzo?

 

Nice pick up for the Rays.

 

The Sox will and should do whatever they were planning to do before the Rays acquired Cruz.

[Hugh2]

Houck looks like the real deal. He belongs in the rotation. Along with Sale , he will really help to solidify things.

 

He only throws two pitches. If he starts, he’s going 3-4 innings.

[notin]

He only throws two pitches. If he starts, he’s going 3-4 innings.

 

I like Houck more as a high leverage reliever. If Whitlock moves to the rotation, I like Houck for his current role…

[moonslav59]

Houck looks like the real deal. He belongs in the rotation. Along with Sale , he will really help to solidify things.

 

I really like Houck, and he's upped his game a lot from 2-3 years ago, but this sample size of good pitching is still rather small.

 

I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but he needs more IP'd to know he's a certain mainstay on our staff.

 

Here are his numbers:

 

5.64 in 2017 (A- 22IP)

5.14 in 2018 (A+ 119 IP)

4.35 in 2019 (AA & AAA 108 IP)

 

0.53 in 2020 (MLB but just 21 IP)

5.14 in 2021 (AAA 21 IP- same sample size as 2020 MLB one)

2.50 in 2021 (MLB in 18 IP)

 

He's got 35 IP in MLB and a 1.54 ERA/ 1.029 WHIP

 

[moonslav59]

I like Houck more as a high leverage reliever. If Whitlock moves to the rotation, I like Houck for his current role…

 

I do, too.

 

I think Whitlock projects to be a better starter, and Houck could be a nasty set up man who can give 2 and maybe even 3 IP here and there.

[mvp 78]

I really like Houck, and he's upped his game a lot from 2-3 years ago, but this sample size of good pitching is still rather small.

 

I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but he needs more IP'd to know he's a certain mainstay on our staff.

 

Here are his numbers:

 

5.64 in 2017 (A- 22IP)

5.14 in 2018 (A+ 119 IP)

4.35 in 2019 (AA & AAA 108 IP)

 

0.53 in 2020 (MLB but just 21 IP)

5.14 in 2021 (AAA 21 IP- same sample size as 2020 MLB one)

2.50 in 2021 (MLB in 18 IP)

 

He's got 35 IP in MLB and a 1.54 ERA/ 1.029 WHIP

 

 

Earlier in his career, they were missing with his pitch mix and delivery. I think they are now just going with his more natural stuff.

[notin]

Inside info ?Give us Rizzo

 

Since 2018, Matt Beaty has a better OPS and wOBA vs RHP than Rizzo. Also probably costs a lot less in a trade…

[moonslav59]

Earlier in his career, they were missing with his pitch mix and delivery. I think they are now just going with his more natural stuff.

 

Yes, and I mentioned how he has changed from 2-3 years ago, but this is the sample size since the changes:

 

0.53 in 2020 (MLB but just 21 IP)

5.14 in 2021 (AAA 21 IP- same sample size as 2020 MLB one)

2.50 in 2021 (MLB in 18 IP)

 

The AAA sample size of 2021 (5.14 ERA) is the same ip as his 2020 MLB sample size of 0.53 and more than his 2021 MLB sample size of 18 IP and 2.50 ERA.

 

More innings are needed.

 

Batters will learn what he is about and he may need to adjust to their adjustments.

 

I'm very hopeful and don't want to sound pessimistic. I'm just being cautious- same as I am when things look bad.

[moonslav59]

Since 2018, Matt Beaty has a better OPS and wOBA vs RHP than Rizzo. Also probably costs a lot less in a trade…

 

I'm not getting all the love for Rizzo.

 

I think some Sox fans remember how good he was and how he used to be our prospect and want him back.

 

I'm not sure he's even an upgrade over Dalbec/Cordero/Arroyo/Kike/Santana/Marwin.

[notin]

I’ll throw this one out there.

 

Dodgers get RHRP Ian Kennedy

Rangers get 2b/3b Hudson Pott

Red Sox get LHH 1b Matt Beaty

 

Yes it works on BTV…

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not getting all the love for Rizzo.

 

I think some Sox fans remember how good he was and how he used to be our prospect and want him back.

 

I'm not sure he's even an upgrade over Dalbec/Cordero/Arroyo/Kike/Santana/Marwin.

 

Let's be reasonable. He seems in decline, but he's not far removed from being very good.

 

That said I have no interest in trading for him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not getting all the love for Rizzo.

 

I think some Sox fans remember how good he was and how he used to be our prospect and want him back.

 

I'm not sure he's even an upgrade over Dalbec/Cordero/Arroyo/Kike/Santana/Marwin.

 

You think he's all done at 31? Rizzo may be a classic change-of-scenery guy, especially thrust back into a pennant race. Plus, he's the type of vet new teammates may like in the dugout and clubhouse; been there, won that.

 

I'd still prioritize bullpen help over anything as the Sox' combination of biggest need/most available/cheapest cost...

[notin]

Rich Hill to the Mets

[moonslav59]

You think he's all done at 31? Rizzo may be a classic change-of-scenery guy, especially thrust back into a pennant race. Plus, he's the type of vet new teammates may like in the dugout and clubhouse; been there, won that.

 

I'd still prioritize bullpen help over anything as the Sox' combination of biggest need/most available/cheapest cost...

 

He might be close to being "all done." I don't know.

 

I also don't know if Dalbec is "all done."

 

OPS since June 5th:

 

.733 Dalbec

.698 Rizzo

 

I'm not against trading for a 1Bman or a platoon 1Bman. I'm just not all gah-gah over Rizzo.

 

2020-2021

.756 Rizzo (22 Hrs 59 RBI in 593 PAs)

.737 Dalbec (18 HRs52 RBI in 366 PAs)

[moonslav59]

Rich Hill to the Mets

 

The Rays continue to surprise.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm not getting all the love for Rizzo.

 

I think some Sox fans remember how good he was and how he used to be our prospect and want him back.

 

I'm not sure he's even an upgrade over Dalbec/Cordero/Arroyo/Kike/Santana/Marwin.

 

Thanks for saying that. You yourself have said repeatedly that this year all the contenders have weaknesses. And right now, as you point out, Cora is not without options/alternatives at 1b.

 

That said, Nelson Cruz, age 41, to the Rays was a good move. On the other hand, we already have a terrific DH (who can also play the outfield), and finding a really good first baseman who won't break the bank or the prospects ain't easy.

[Maxbialystock]

He might be close to being "all done." I don't know.

 

I also don't know if Dalbec is "all done."

 

OPS since June 5th:

 

.733 Dalbec

.698 Rizzo

 

I'm not against trading for a 1Bman or a platoon 1Bman. I'm just not all gah-gah over Rizzo.

 

2020-2021

.756 Rizzo (22 Hrs 59 RBI in 593 PAs)

.737 Dalbec (18 HRs52 RBI in 366 PAs)

 

That's dirty pool. Seriously. Did you have to bring out those stats when the very name Rizzo has such poetry in it?

[dgalehouse]

Rizzo is a gold glove first baseman who could save a lot of infield errors. Not having a good year at bat , but certainly capable of turning that around. Not sure what it would take to get him. Meanwhile, we are doing okay. No need to rush into anything.

[Maxbialystock]

I’ll throw this one out there.

 

Dodgers get RHRP Ian Kennedy

Rangers get 2b/3b Hudson Pott

Red Sox get LHH 1b Matt Beaty

 

Yes it works on BTV…

 

Love Beaty. Such potential. Only thing is, his cumulative WAR after 3 seasons is -.3. That's better than Dalbec's cumulative (after 2 seasons) of -.5, but not by much.

[moonslav59]

That's dirty pool. Seriously. Did you have to bring out those stats when the very name Rizzo has such poetry in it?

 

In all honesty, I'd take Rizzo over a Dalbec platoon with Cordero/Arroyo, but not by all that much.

 

The cost of trading for Rizzo would make it a clear net minus.

[Maxbialystock]

Rizzo is a gold glove first baseman who could save a lot of infield errors. Not having a good year at bat , but certainly capable of turning that around. Not sure what it would take to get him. Meanwhile, we are doing okay. No need to rush into anything.

 

His DWAR this year so far is -.6 and he has more at bats than Dalbec, but only 1 more dinger and 1 fewer rbi's.

[mvp 78]

His DWAR this year so far is -.6 and he has more at bats than Dalbec, but only 1 more dinger and 1 fewer rbi's.

 

HR and RBI? Is that what we're doing here now?

[mvp 78]

Rizzo: 107 WRC+, 756 OPS, 16% k rate, 9.4% bb rate, 0.6 fWAR

Dalbec: 76 WRC+, 666 OPS, 37.2% k rate, 4.4% bb rate, -0.6 fWAR

 

Fangraphs and BaseballRef, both believe Dalbec to be less valuable than some random AAAA guy.