trade deadline

[dgalehouse]

If you don't want to spend or give up prospects, you are probably not going to make a major acquisition. The good news is we may not need a major acquisition to compete for the title. Just add Sale and perhaps Houck to the rotation, and pick up a good lefty ( Chafin ? ) for the pen. Edited July 20, 2021 by dgalehouse

[moonslav59]

If you don't want to spend or give up prospects, you are probably not going to make a major acquisition. The good news is we may not need a major acquisition to compete for the title. Just add Sale and perhaps Houck to the rotation, and pick up a good lefty ( Chafin ? ) for the pen.

 

Nobody thought trading for Eovaldi or Pearce was going to be a big difference maker.

[mvp 78]

358 PAs just doesn't mean all that much, to me.

 

My issue with Gallo is the up and down not the mean.

 

.312

.389

.301

.391

 

That and the cost needed to get him.

 

If the guy had a .391 OBP over the past 2-4 years, I'm interested.

 

 

He's cost prohibitive for sure. It's just up to you if you want to ride the lightning.

[moonslav59]

He's cost prohibitive for sure. It's just up to you if you want to ride the lightning.

 

I'd love to win it all this year, but to me, you only trade away some of the most promising future when the timing is just right.

 

I don't think this is the time. I think we'll be better in the next year or two, and that should be the time we think about sacrificing some of the future for "lightening."

 

I think we can make a couple lesser but impactful deals, this summer that keep us under the tax line while keeping the future team intact.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'd love to win it all this year, but to me, you only trade away some of the most promising future when the timing is just right.

 

I don't think this is the time. I think we'll be better in the next year or two, and that should be the time we think about sacrificing some of the future for "lightening."

 

I think we can make a couple lesser but impactful deals, this summer that keep us under the tax line while keeping the future team intact.

 

So... to get Jose Berrios, you wouldn't give up Verdugo, Casas and Downs? That's the kind of haul The Athletic reported today as the Twins' asking price: one pre-arb player and two Top 100 prospects.

 

Chief Baseball Officer says, "Me neither" (private baseball watcher thirds the motion).

 

Berrios' most Similar Pitchers all-time, baseball history (according to baseball-reference): 1. Zach Davies; 2. Eduardo Rodriguez.

[Swiharts Ghost]

So... to get Jose Berrios, you wouldn't give up Verdugo, Casas and Downs? That's the kind of haul The Athletic reported today as the Twins' asking price: one pre-arb player and two Top 100 prospects.

 

Chief Baseball Officer says, "Me neither" (private baseball watcher thirds the motion).

 

Berrios' most Similar Pitchers all-time, baseball history (according to baseball-reference): 1. Zach Davies; 2. Eduardo Rodriguez.

I think they would do Dugo strait up ,

[oldtimer]

I'd love to win it all this year, but to me, you only trade away some of the most promising future when the timing is just right.

 

I don't think this is the time. I think we'll be better in the next year or two, and that should be the time we think about sacrificing some of the future for "lightening."

 

I think we can make a couple lesser but impactful deals, this summer that keep us under the tax line while keeping the future team intact.

 

The idea of lightening up has been talked about since the Sox have too many prospects to keep over the winter. Throwing in an outfield prospect like Wilson with a ML guy who isn't in our long term plan makes some sense. Chavis, Dalbec and perhaps Cordero all are possibilities and there are many other prospects we could trade without much impact.

 

What we could use is an upgrade in the RP area to replace Andriese, Workman or possibly Rios. If we can get one with an additional year of control it would be better. It is the kind of move that would help the team competitiveness without going over the CBT. Of course we could use help at 1b. Cron might make sense as Casa is still a full year away.

[Larry Cook]

When sale returns, someone goes to the bullpen and we get to jettison Rios.

 

We are still left with andriese and workman. I think Hang’em Chaim can upgrade two spots in the bullpen without sacrificing the present or future.

[Swiharts Ghost]

When sale returns, someone goes to the bullpen and we get to jettison Rios.

 

We are still left with andriese and workman. I think Hang’em Chaim can upgrade two spots in the bullpen without sacrificing the present or future.

 

Just asking but why do you think Andgreesy sticks ? Guys a dumpster fire .I think I keep Workman as the mop up guy .

[mvp 78]

Just asking but why do you think Andgreesy sticks ? Guys a dumpster fire .I think I keep Workman as the mop up guy .

 

Workman can’t pitch more than one inning.

[moonslav59]

The idea of lightening up has been talked about since the Sox have too many prospects to keep over the winter. Throwing in an outfield prospect like Wilson with a ML guy who isn't in our long term plan makes some sense. Chavis, Dalbec and perhaps Cordero all are possibilities and there are many other prospects we could trade without much impact.

 

What we could use is an upgrade in the RP area to replace Andriese, Workman or possibly Rios. If we can get one with an additional year of control it would be better. It is the kind of move that would help the team competitiveness without going over the CBT. Of course we could use help at 1b. Cron might make sense as Casa is still a full year away.

 

I don't see trading away guys like Wilson, Potts, Rosario or maybe even Ward or Groome as hurting the farm all that much.

 

When we traded Beeks, did anyone think he was all that promising?

 

I'm hoping we don't have to trade prospects as good as Groome, but that's about as high as I go, this summer.

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

This one got 6 likes and 0 dislikes for the Sox and 6 likes and 2 dislikes for DET:

 

Ro Hernandez, Groome, Ward & Chavis

for

Boyd, Cisnero & Schoop

 

I just put this one through...

 

Ro Hernandez & Ward

for

Boyd & Schoop

 

It also accepted Bobby Dee straight up for the two.

 

Groome, Ward & Chavis, too.

 

Ward, Rosario, Decker & Chavis, but they'd laugh at this one.

The Tigers won't be interested in R.Hernandez -- they already have an excellent catching prospect, a player who is much better than Hernandez.

 

I'm hoping the Red Sox can trade Dalbec somewhere, he isn't worth a 40 man roster spot next year, and a rebuilding team might be willing to give Dalbec a look. I think he has limited trade value, though. He is not much more than a throw in, he can't be the centerpiece of a trade.

 

I think the Red Sox should pursue a Boyd/Schoop package -- the price will be high but the Red Sox need to upgrade and it would be a mistake to go into October with the current roster construction.

 

If the Sox are in the WS, I could see them going away from shaky Kimbrel and back to Sale again.

 

Kimbrel hasn't been shaky this year, but dominant. Moreover, the Red Sox's closer is Barnes and I think Barnes remains the closer throughout the rest of the season and into October with or without Kimbrel. Also, based on what Cora is saying, the plan is for Sale to return as a starting pitcher. Assuming Sale does indeed start, there is zero chance the Red Sox would also give him bullpen duty in October. Since he is coming off TJ Surgery, the Red Sox will manage Sale conservatively.

Edited July 21, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I just think the pen is the cheapest way to upgrade without giving up core prospects. The rotation expands to seven guys with Houck and Sale spot-starting -- in that order, because they're asking for trouble if Sale looks good early and they give him a regular turn at a pedal-to-the-metal pace.

[oldtimer]

I still believe Cron might be a good pickup at fairly low cost.

 

1B: C.J. Cron, Rockies

The Rockies signed Cron to a one-year, $1 million contract this offseason, a deal that has paid off for Colorado. Cron has 10 home runs and an .804 OPS through 64 games, providing solid production at a bargain price. For a team in need of help at first base, Cron could be one of the best -- and most affordable -- options.

 

Trevor Story is the Rockies big trade chip but we don't need him.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Two trades:

1. Downs and R.Hernandez (based on my look at the Rockies team and farm system, they have a need for a young catcher) to the Rockies for J.Gray. The Red Sox try to extend Gray prior to free agency.

2. J.Winckowski and H.Potts to the Tigers for J.Schoop.

 

Lineup after trade:

Hernandez 2b

Duran CF

Bogaerts SS

Devers 3b

Martinez DH

Schoop 1b

Verdugo LF

Renfroe RF

Vazquez C

 

Postseason rotation:

Eovaldi

Sale

Gray

E-Rod or Pivetta

 

Postseason Bullpen:

Barnes

Ottavino

Whitlock

Houck

Taylor

Sawamura

E-Rod or Pivetta

Perez or Richards

Hernandez???

Edited July 21, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[notin]

The Tigers won't be interested in R.Hernandez -- they already have an excellent catching prospect, a player who is much better than Hernandez

 

Who?

 

Catching is actually a massive void in their system.

 

Unless you were referring to Dillon Dingler, the only catcher BA had in their top 30 prospects as of May. However, the 23yo former Ohio State Buckeye is struggling in AA and is considered to be at least 2 years away.

 

Or were you referring to 2021 #1 overall draft pick Henry Davis? Probably worth noting 1) he hasn’t signed yet and 2) he was drafted by the Pirates, not the Tigers.

[mvp 78]

Two trades:

1. Downs and R.Hernandez (based on my look at the Rockies team and farm system, they have a need for a young catcher) to the Rockies for J.Gray. The Red Sox try to extend Gray prior to free agency.

2. J.Winckowski and H.Potts to the Tigers for J.Schoop.

 

Lineup after trade:

Hernandez 2b

Duran CF

Bogaerts SS

Devers 3b

Martinez DH

Schoop 1b

Verdugo LF

Renfroe RF

Vazquez C

 

Postseason rotation:

Eovaldi

Sale

Gray

E-Rod or Pivetta

 

Postseason Bullpen:

Barnes

Ottavino

Whitlock

Houck

Taylor

Sawamura

E-Rod or Pivetta

Perez or Richards

Hernandez???

 

Per BTV, R Hernandez alone should be enough to get Gray. Gray is a FA after this season. Adding Downs to that is not ideal.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Who?

 

Catching is actually a massive void in their system.

 

Unless you were referring to Dillon Dingler, the only catcher BA had in their top 30 prospects as of May. However, the 23yo former Ohio State Buckeye is struggling in AA and is considered to be at least 2 years away.

 

Or were you referring to 2021 #1 overall draft pick Henry Davis? Probably worth noting 1) he hasn’t signed yet and 2) he was drafted by the Pirates, not the Tigers.

 

The Tigers are high on Dingler and have been ever since they invested 2 million in him. I have him at 22 years old, not 23, and he is hitting for power at AA. His BA AVG was better a few weeks ago, but has now dropped to .255. He still has 10 HR in a little over 200 at bats. The Tigers like his defense too.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Forget Matt Boyd:

 

Boyd (triceps) has been steadily increasing his throwing distance off flat ground, but he has yet to be cleared for mound work since being placed on the 10-day injured list June 15, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.

 

While it's a positive sign that Boyd isn't shut down, the Tigers aren't counting on him to return from the injured list before the end of July. A firmer target date for Boyd's reinstatement should come once he's sent out on a minor-league rehab assignment, but he has multiple hurdles to clear in the recovery process before he reaches that point.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/tigers-matthew-boyd-limited-to-flat-ground-throwing/

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Per BTV, R Hernandez alone should be enough to get Gray. Gray is a FA after this season. Adding Downs to that is not ideal.

 

Yeah, I thought it was an overpay. On second thought, I'm not sure if I want Gray anymore. While his slider is an elite pitch, his 4-seamer isn't anything great, and has never been a big pitch for him. I'm not sure if Gray would be a huge upgrade over what the Red Sox already have.....

 

Oh well, there is always Kyle Gibson. LOL.

 

The Dodgers and Rays are reportedly interested in Gray, two organizations that probably think they can fix Gray, improve his 4-seamer somehow. I can understand the interest in Gray--an improved 4-seamer together with his plus slider would turn him into an excellent starter. Problem is, his 4-seamer has always been a below average pitch and so I'm not sure how to improve Gray. You would think Gray would develop a cutter or something like that, but he would need a spring training to work on and develop another pitch.

 

Moreover, the Dodgers and Rays' interest in Gray might be due to the paucity of quality starting pitchers on the trade market.

 

If we decide that there is no starting pitcher on the trade market that is significantly better than the E-Rod, Pivetta, Houck group, then maybe the Red Sox should try to acquire the best relief arm possible, along with a starting 1b.

Edited July 21, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[mvp 78]

Yeah, I thought it was an overpay. On second thought, I'm not sure if I want Gray anymore. While his slider is an elite pitch, his 4-seamer isn't anything great, and has never been a big pitch for him. I'm not sure if Gray would be a huge upgrade over what the Red Sox already have.....

 

Oh well, there is always Kyle Gibson. LOL.

 

The Dodgers and Rays are reportedly interested in Gray, two organizations that probably think they can fix Gray, improve his 4-seamer somehow. I can understand the interest in Gray--an improved 4-seamer together with his plus slider would turn him into an excellent starter. Problem is, his 4-seamer has always been a below average pitch and so I'm not sure how to improve Gray. You would think Gray would develop a cutter or something like that, but he would need a spring training to work on and develop another pitch.

 

Moreover, the Dodgers and Rays' interest in Gray might be due to the paucity of quality starting pitchers on the trade market.

 

If we decide that there is no starting pitcher on the trade market that is significantly better than the E-Rod, Pivetta, Houck group, then maybe the Red Sox should try to acquire the best relief arm possible, along with a starting 1b.

 

In a playoff setting, upgrading your 4th and 5th starters doesn't really matter anyway. I agree that bolstering the relieving corps could be a better bet.

 

I also just don't like Gray because his stats away from home are atrocious. He has a weird reverse Coors split.

[moonslav59]

I can see why some posters are not high on Downs, but he is still one of our best prospects. One not so good Hal season is not reason enough to trade a top prospect for a decent rental.

 

Plus, it’s not going to happen. Zero chance. Nada.

[mvp 78]

I can see why some posters are not high on Downs, but he is still one of our best prospects. One not so good Hal season is not reason enough to trade a top prospect for a decent rental.

 

Plus, it’s not going to happen. Zero chance. Nada.

 

Not for Gray anyway. You'd have to get a Berrios type to give up a top prospect.

[moonslav59]

Not for Gray anyway. You'd have to get a Berrios type to give up a top prospect.

 

Agreed, and he's got another year of control, which is big.

 

Even him, I'm not sure Bloom is looking at trading 5 years of Downs (plus others) for 1.3 of Berrios.

Edited July 21, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

@SPChrisHatfield

Something to keep in mind as the Red Sox approach the trade deadline: In addition to whatever source you use for their current payroll, they project to add about $900k-$1.525M in performance bonuses as well, per the info at Cot's

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Agreed, and he's got another year of control, which is big.

 

Even him, I'm not sure Bloom is looking at trading 5 years of Downs (plus others) for 1.3 of Berrios.

 

It seems kind of awkward that current player values are determined more by the future than the actual present or even recent past.

 

Years of control are certainly more important than projected production, almost as if there's more value for a GM when he doesn't have to worry about replacing -- and paying for -- a new player. Ironically, unproven players with the most years of control can at least bring back the most trade value (especially for other "valuable" unprovens).

 

Baseball card collectors get it: an unopened pack is always worth more than an opened pack... unless the latter yields a Hall of Fame rookie or autograph card.

 

Chances are Downs doesn't become an All-Star or a starting player or even make the majors. But until he doesn't, there's always that chance...

[Fan_since_Boggs]

For those who want a starting pitcher at the deadline, the challenge is this: name the starting pitcher and tell us how that pitcher is clearly better than the E-Rod, Pivetta, Houck group. For Gray, I don't think he stands out enough, meaning the Red Sox should simply keep their rotation as is and target a bullpen arm. It'll be easy to find a bullpen arm better than Workman or Rios.

 

For the postseason rotation, I'm seeing this:

 

1.Eovaldi

2.Sale

3. E-Rod, Pivetta, Houck

4. E-Rod, Pivetta, Houck

 

It is hard to find an SP on the trade market who profiles as something clearly better than E-Rod, Pivetta, Houck. Jose Berrios is better but it sounds like the Twins don't plan to trade him and so he really isn't on the market. Maybe Kyle Gibson is the guy but you would need to believe that his first half numbers are real and sustainable. Who else is there and why are we convinced that that starting pitcher is an upgrade?

 

He has a weird reverse Coors split.

I noticed that too. I don't know what explains that split.

Edited July 21, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The Kyle Gibson dilemma:

 

In his ninth season in the majors, Kyle Gibson has finally emerged as an ace and made it to an All-Star Game.

 

Despite an atrocious dud on Opening Day (0.1 IP, 5 ER), Gibson entered the break with a 2.29 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. That's because he went at least five innings and allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his next 15 starts.

 

However, his "luck" rates stand out like a sore thumb compared to how he pitched prior to turning 33.

 

Gibson's BABIP (.254) is more than 50 points below what his career BABIP was at the start of the season. He's been keeping balls in play far more often than he used to, allowing only 0.71 home runs per nine innings pitched. That number was north of 1.0 in each of the previous five seasons, including a 1.60 rate last year.

 

Gibson had career marks of 4.57 ERA and 1.42 WHIP from 2013-20, but his xFIP hasn't much changed. After seven consecutive seasons in the 3.80-4.50 range, he's currently at 3.89 xFIP. That more or less suggests he should have a second half that looks more like the past few seasons as opposed to the past few months.

 

Gibson isn't an average deadline target in terms of contract status, either. His salary will go down in 2022, but he's still signed for $7.7 million next season before becoming a free agent the following winter. That's an absolute steal if he pitches like this for another season-and-a-half, but it would be a tough pill to swallow if he regresses to his normal state.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2946088-potential-2021-mlb-trade-deadline-busts-to-avoid

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Summary of starting pitchers as potential targets on the trade market:

 

D.Duffy: hurt.

M.Boyd: hurt.

J.Gray: not a clear upgrade over what the Red Sox already have.

K.Gibson: the real thing? See above post.

J.Berrios: not really on the market; a team will need to overwhelm the Twins with an offer.

M.Pineda: probably a downgrade for the Red Sox.

S.Gray: signed for two more seasons beyond this one (the second year is a team option) at an affordable price. He's been excellent for the Reds--thus, do they even want to move him? If the Reds decide to trade S.Gray, they will want a ton in return, perhaps as much as the Twins are asking for Berrios if not more (with one more year of control).

 

S.Gray and J.Berrios are two clear upgrades, but they are also the two most difficult to acquire.

[harmony]

Per BTV, R Hernandez alone should be enough to get Gray. Gray is a FA after this season. Adding Downs to that is not ideal.

Unless another team makes a more attractive offer.