A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[notin]

mmm not sure what yo mean with goalpost but it was a honest answer.

 

Probably it is what is happening. Probably he is trying to sell himself higher. I don't blame him, but I don't blame GMs for not buying either.

 

Am I the only one who found it surprising that Trevor Williams, Matt Moore and Jose Urena got MLB contracts and Porcello didn’t even get a minor league deal?

 

I’m sure money was a factor at some point. But Matt Moore?

[Maxbialystock]

Pitching is a great topic for resuming A Realistic View of 2021, part deux.

 

Dgalehouse is adamant that the Sox have too many pitchers: right now they do in fact have 12 position players and 14 pitchers (6 starters and 8 relievers).

 

But I think that is the right mix because you can never have too much pitching, especially when the Sox need quantity to make up for a shortfall in quality starters. In the latest (4 games) Yankees series the only starter to get a win was the Yankees Taillon. The bullpen got all 3 of the Sox wins--and last night Ottavino got the win vs. Toronto.

 

The six starters address moonslav's big point about getting another one because, even with Sale returning (mid-August?), Eovaldi a semi-ace (WAR 3.0), and Houck looking pretty good this time up, the other four--Pivetta (the best of the worst), Perez, ERod, and Richards--do not inspire confidence. Thus too the 8 relievers (currently without Sawamura, WAR .6): Barnes (WAR 1.8), Whitlock (WAR 1.8), Ottavino (WAR .9), Valdez (WAR .5); backed up by two lefties, Taylor and Hernandez (WAR's .7 and .6), and two last resorts, Rios and Workman (.4 and .2).

 

Plus don't forget that Cora's managing of the 2018 postseason demonstrated how starters, regardless of stature, can quickly become relievers with the only criterion being, "can he get guys out?"

 

Also a word about the lineup. Even with a bare bones 12 position players, Cora has been able to rest all his best players and rotate beaucoup guys through CF, 2b, and 1b in an effort to find and keep the best bats and to compensate for Arroyo going on and off the IL. Right now Duran with his speed and lefty bat and reputed potential is getting a shot, just as Dalbec has all season long, Chavis has now and then, etc.

 

But the simple fact is that Cora wants these seven (7) bats in the lineup as much as possible: Devers, JDM, Bogey, Hernandez, Verdugo, Renfroe, and Arroyo. And the 8th bat belongs to Vazquez, who has a lock on catcher (4 of 5 games) because his DWAR is 1.2 (only Hernandez's 1.5 is higher) and his OPS of .645 is par for a catcher.

 

Thus Chavis, Dalbec, Duran, Gonzalez, Santana, and Cordero have all basically been trying out to become the 9th bat and/or fill in for Arroyo. And Hernandez, easily our best centerfielder at bat and in centerfield, gets jerked around so that Cora can keep searching for that 9th bat.

Edited July 27, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[iortiz]

He signed with the Mets in 2020 for $9 million. I can’t imagine that he would be asking for more than that after s***ing the bed in 2020. That is short money for a #3. I guess the GM’s don’t think he is a #3.

 

Speaking for myself I think some managers asked him to go to the BP while making RP money and see what is left in that tank. Probably he didn't want to accept the role; after all he is already a millionaire and won CY.

[iortiz]

Am I the only one who found it surprising that Trevor Williams, Matt Moore and Jose Urena got MLB contracts and Porcello didn’t even get a minor league deal?

 

I’m sure money was a factor at some point. But Matt Moore?

 

 

Yeah it is surprising. There's only two options. He is asking way more of what his recent value says or GMs don't see anything left in that tank.

[moonslav59]

Moon, putting Porcello in the same tier of very good & HOF pitchers in terms of WAR (for instance) doesn't make sense at all, reason why your analysis is flawed and out of context to start off.

 

FG & BR built several levels with different thresholds in every stat in order to differentiate pedigrees. In almost every stat based on those charts, he ranks between average and below average in his career. Both sources can't be wrong of what they see in Porcello.

 

Said that, sure, you can do all the the analysis you want and believe whatever you want, but your arguments are way different of what 2 of the most respectable baseball sources see in Porcello (Between Average and Below Average)—based on their charts.

 

I never put him in a category with HOF pitchers. You keep misrepresenting my position.

 

Let's just stop the nonsense and move on.

[iortiz]

I never put him in a category with HOF pitchers. You keep misrepresenting my position.

 

Let's just stop the nonsense and move on.

 

You are putting him in a top tier in terms of WAR, aren't you? or What? do you have more tiers? lol

[moonslav59]

I highly doubt they trade Richards or Perez. Bloom acquired them, I think he likes them.

 

Bloom acquired and traded several players with TB.

 

Also, I'm not saying they will trade Richards or Perez, but I hope they trade Richards, move Perez to the pen, and acquire a decent SP'er and maybe a 1Bman, if the budget allows them to.

[Maxbialystock]

As Napoleon used to say, back to the WAR's. Here are the current WAR's of the significant and, sad to say, insignificant Sox position players:

 

Devers 3.6 (OPS .935)

Hernandez 3.3 (OPS .779)

Bogaerts 3.0 (OPS .891)

JD Martinez 3.0 (OPS .928)

Arroyo 1.5 (OPS .792)

Renfroe 1.5 (OPS .784)

Vazquez 1.4 (OPS .645)

Verdugo 1.2 (OPS .764)

 

INSERT A HUGE GULF AND THEN READ ON

 

Gonzalez .2 (OPS .583)

Wong .1 (OPS .636)

Duran 0 (OPS .522)

Plawecki -.2 (OPS .689)

Cordero -.2 (OPS .534)

Santana -.4 (OPS .554)

Chavis -.5 (OPS .532

Dalbec -1.1 (OPS .656)

Edited July 27, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[mvp 78]

Am I the only one who found it surprising that Trevor Williams, Matt Moore and Jose Urena got MLB contracts and Porcello didn’t even get a minor league deal?

 

I’m sure money was a factor at some point. But Matt Moore?

 

I do wonder if Porcello made his money and figured he'd rather spend time with his kids than get less than what he thinks he is worth.

[moonslav59]

You are putting him in a top tier in terms of WAR, aren't you? or What? do you have more tiers? lol

 

STOP! Please!

 

I posted several numbers, one being fWAR. Most showed him to be mediocre, some a bit above average and fWAR showing top 20%. From that I determined he was a good pitcher from 2009-2020.

 

You and 700 bring up nobody wanting him in 2021, so freakin' what?

 

I never said Porcello was in a class with HOF'er. I said he was good or very good not mediocre. Stop pretending I said things I did not. I'm fine with people calling him mediocre.

 

Stop the Porcello talk. What's the use?

[moonslav59]

As Napoleon used to say, back to the WAR's. Here are the current WAR's of the significant and, sad to say, insignificant Sox position players:

 

Devers 3.6 (OPS .935)

Hernandez 3.3 (OPS .779)

Bogaerts 3.0 (OPS .891)

JD Martinez 3.0 (OPS .928)

Arroyo 1.5 (OPS .792)

Renfroe 1.5 (OPS .784)

Vazquez 1.4 (OPS .645)

Verdugo 1.2 (OPS .764)

 

INSERT A HUGE GULF AND THEN READ ON

 

Gonzalez .2 (OPS .583)

Wong .1 (OPS .636)

Duran 0 (OPS .522)

Plawecki -.2 (OPS .689)

Cordero -.2 (OPS .534)

Santana -.4 (OPS .554)

Chavis -.5 (OPS .532

Dalbec -1.1 (OPS .656)

 

That's a nice 8. Most teams can't match that.

 

We have to hope we can improve 1B, either by hoping Dalbec-Cordero/Marwin/Kike/Arroyo/Plawecki do better going forward or we add a 1Bman.

[Maxbialystock]

I do wonder if Porcello made his money and figured he'd rather spend time with his kids than get less than what he thinks he is worth.

 

Possible, but, if so, a rarity. I know we all think it's about the money, but almost everyone who gets to play at that level simply loves playing at that level.

 

His career ERA is 4.82, his 2019 ERA with the Sox was 5.89, and his ERA last year with the Mets was 5.49. So maybe he's not sure he can play at the MLB level or maybe his agent says that's what he is hearing from MLB teams.

[Kimmi]

One run lead, runners at seconds and third and no outs. If you play the infield in, you're also increasing the risk of a ground ball getting through and scoring two runs.

 

I get your argument, but I think there is an argument against it too.

 

I get the argument either way as well. I don't blame Boone for not playing the infield in. It's interesting that Boone himself did second guess that decision though.

[Kimmi]

The flaws in ERA should tend to balance out over a long career. It is still the simplest, best stat for determining a pitcher's performance. The whole idea is to not allow the opponent to score runs. Some folks want to make everything complicated. And that's okay. But I still think career ERA tells the story in an easy to compute nutshell. The other stats serve to build and explain the bottom line , which is ERA.

 

The list of the ways in which ERA is flawed goes on and on and on. Yes, it's a simple stat, but it is nowhere near the best stat for determining a pitcher's performance.

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom acquired and traded several players with TB.

 

Also, I'm not saying they will trade Richards or Perez, but I hope they trade Richards, move Perez to the pen, and acquire a decent SP'er and maybe a 1Bman, if the budget allows them to.

 

I will make a friendly wager they don't trade Richards or Perez.

[Maxbialystock]

That's a nice 8. Most teams can't match that.

 

We have to hope we can improve 1B, either by hoping Dalbec-Cordero/Marwin/Kike/Arroyo/Plawecki do better going forward or we add a 1Bman.

 

It is indeed a nice 8, which was my point. That said, it does bug me a little to realize that Cora is happy moving Hernandez and his WAR of 3.3 from position to position so Duran and others can have a shot at becoming the 9th.

 

So, even though I think 8 is enough, I agree it probably makes sense to acquire a first baseman who can hit and field. It continues to astound me that Dalbec has struggled at first base, where a zillion other Sox players, this year and in years past, have shifted into and played with ease.

[Kimmi]

We need a new , more comprehensive stat. One that takes into account not only the dimensions and particular quirks of every ballpark a guy has ever pitched in and the weather conditions on every day or night he pitched. But also , the lifetime OPS of every hitter he faced and the overall ability of every one of his pitcher teammates. Then , we need the CERA of every catcher he threw to , and the defensive ability , or lack of same , of every teammate playing behind him. Then we need an evaluation of all his managers and pitching coaches and their tendencies . And that's just for starters. We need the geek squad to get to work on this now . When they finish , they can start another web site that we can bookmark and refer to daily. Then and only then will we really be able to accurately rank every pitcher who has ever lived.

 

The geek squad is way ahead of you Denny. Believe it or not, this stat pretty much already exists (introduced in 2015), Baseball Prospectus' Deserved Run Average or DRA. It factors in almost anything you can think of, including who is umpiring the game and the weather conditions.

[Kimmi]

The best verdict on Porcello is the verdict of 30 GMs who all need pitching. None of them are knocking on Porcello’s door who is only 31 years old and healthy. That speaks volumes.

 

That doesn't necessarily say anything.

[sk7326]

It is indeed a nice 8, which was my point. That said, it does bug me a little to realize that Cora is happy moving Hernandez and his WAR of 3.3 from position to position so Duran and others can have a shot at becoming the 9th.

 

So, even though I think 8 is enough, I agree it probably makes sense to acquire a first baseman who can hit and field. It continues to astound me that Dalbec has struggled at first base, where a zillion other Sox players, this year and in years past, have shifted into and played with ease.

 

I think Dalbec's struggled have manifested everywhere. Just the nature of things. Fielding has struggled - his approach has gone to seed at the plate.

[Kimmi]

Starting to think the Sox will explore every shot at acquiring a good starting pitcher up to Friday, and if all else fails, they'll then go hard after a good bullpen arm. Most posters think there's no way Bloom will trade any top prospects to make a splash, but what if the target isn't a rental, but someone he envisions as part of that sustainable core he always discusses?

 

This deadline may not be just about going all-in for '21...

 

The Reds' Luis Castillo is 4-10 with a 4.20 ERA (and other mediocre metrics), but still holds a 79.4 trade value on the simulator. Compare that with some of the Marlins' young guns: Sanchez 56.1, Alcantara 61.9, Lopez 82.7... Jose Berrios is only 42.9.

 

I think most of us are in agreement that he might top trade prospects or go over the tax limit if it's for a move that will help us in the long term. He won't do either of those things for a rental player.

[Kimmi]

So happy for Verdugo' date=' he needed that.[/quote']

 

!!!

[iortiz]

The list of the ways in which ERA is flawed goes on and on and on. Yes, it's a simple stat, but it is nowhere near the best stat for determining a pitcher's performance.

 

mmm in large samples it is pretty decent. As dga said the flaws in ERA should tend to balance out over a long career. You can't be unlucky/lucky or whatever for a long period of time.

 

All-in-all Very Good Pitchers hold very good ERAs most of the times.

 

Which stat do you like to rate pitchers? WAR? it has its issues too. RPE? they have their issues too.

 

There's not single perfect stat.

 

I would bet you that most of those ver good pitchers you bring based on whatever stat you like hold very good ERAs.

 

I'm not saying you are, but people in baseball sometimes try to complicate things a bit to sound smarter. Stats are great but they will never tell you whole story with 100% of accuracy.

Edited July 27, 2021 by iortiz

[Maxbialystock]

The list of the ways in which ERA is flawed goes on and on and on. Yes, it's a simple stat, but it is nowhere near the best stat for determining a pitcher's performance.

 

How about WAR? Isn't it supposed to take into account all manner of pitching stats? Over 12 seasons as a starter, 2009-2020, Porcello's cumulative WAR was 20.1 and average WAR 1.675, which seems to me to be a tad on the low side. John Lackey, for example, pitched 15 seasons with cumulative WAR of 38.1 and an average of 2.54. His highest salary was $16M vs. Porcello's five years at $21M.

[Bellhorn04]

How about WAR? Isn't it supposed to take into account all manner of pitching stats? Over 12 seasons as a starter, 2009-2020, Porcello's cumulative WAR was 20.1 and average WAR 1.675, which seems to me to be a tad on the low side. John Lackey, for example, pitched 15 seasons with cumulative WAR of 38.1 and an average of 2.54. His highest salary was $16M vs. Porcello's five years at $21M.

 

So now you want to join the Porcello WARs? You also have to look at his fWAR, which is 50% higher.

[iortiz]

Possible, but, if so, a rarity. I know we all think it's about the money, but almost everyone who gets to play at that level simply loves playing at that level.

 

His career ERA is 4.82, his 2019 ERA with the Sox was 5.89, and his ERA last year with the Mets was 5.49. So maybe he's not sure he can play at the MLB level or maybe his agent says that's what he is hearing from MLB teams.

 

 

To be fair his career ERA is 4.4, but yeah maybe he's not sure he can play at the MLB level or maybe his agent says that's what he is hearing from MLB teams.

[mvp 78]

So now you want to join the Porcello WARs? You also have to look at his fWAR, which is 50% higher.

 

bWAR is fake.

[Maxbialystock]

I think Dalbec's struggled have manifested everywhere. Just the nature of things. Fielding has struggled - his approach has gone to seed at the plate.

 

I think you are right about everywhere. Indeed, it's possible, even likely, the fielding infected the hitting.

[Maxbialystock]

So now you want to join the Porcello WARs? You also have to look at his fWAR, which is 50% higher.

 

What the eff is fWAR?

[Bellhorn04]

What the eff is fWAR?

 

So you haven't actually been reading any of these posts LOL

[mvp 78]

So you haven't actually been reading any of these posts LOL

 

That's always been fairly obvious.