A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

A Realistic View of 2021 is no more. It's been replaced by an endless discussion of how to define Porcello statistically.

 

dgalehouse's discussion on how to improve on ERA, ERA+, etc is spot on.

 

Meanwhile, Verdugo is being interviewed on mlb tv, and his tattoos are in full array.

 

And the realistic view of the Sox? They won again, again coming from behind, and are 1.5 ahead of the Rays and leading the winningest conference in MLB. They will likely be tied by the Astros for the best W-L record in the AL.

[moonslav59]

As you said, that is a flawed method. I think I told you before. For instance a career 2.6 fWAR pitcher can't be a No. 1 by any means.

 

This is why fangraphs, baseball reference and other sources have their rule-of-thumb charts for each stat which actually consider large samples.

 

In those charts Porcello consistently ranks in most of them, between the Average-Below Average level as I have been presented.

 

Let's go over every pitcher from 2009-2020, season by season. That's 12 seasons x 150 pitchers (5 per team x 30 teams.)

 

That's 1800 sample sizes of the top 150 pitchers over 12 years.

 

Guess how many had a 2.6 fWAR out of over 1800 samples?

 

It's 555. So a 2.6 fWAR would place you in the upper third tier (600-600-600).

 

If being in the upper third is mediocre, then our issue is not with Porcello. It's what you and others see as being mediocre vs good.

 

Here's the breakdown

 

Top 3rd

150 samples at 4.4 and above

150 from 3.4 to 4.4

150 from 2.8 to 3.4

150 from 2.4 to 2.8

 

Middle 3rd:

150 from 2.1 to 2.4

150 from 1.7 to 2.1

150 from 1.4 to 1.7

150 from 1.1 to 1.4 Middle of the middle 1.1 to 1.7

 

Lower 3rd:

0.7 to 1.1

0.3 to 0.7

0.0 to 0.3

-1.6 to 0.0

[moonslav59]

With the exception of his Cy Young season, I don’t think you could find any stats over his last 6 years that could convince me that he wasn’t a borderline bum.

 

He certainly was not good if you combined those 5 of 6 years.

[moonslav59]

Also in terms of bWAR, he is a 1.7 bWAR pitcher through 11.4 years. The bWAR average is 1.9 bWAR. He is below average in that category as well.

 

Where do you get the average or 1.9 BWAR?

 

Just curious.

[iortiz]

Let's go over every pitcher from 2009-2020, season by season. That's 12 seasons x 150 pitchers (5 per team x 30 teams.)

 

That's 1800 sample sizes of the top 150 pitchers over 12 years.

 

Guess how many had a 2.6 fWAR out of over 1800 samples?

 

It's 555. So a 2.6 fWAR would place you in the upper third tier (600-600-600).

 

If being in the upper third is mediocre, then our issue is not with Porcello. It's what you and others see as being mediocre vs good.

 

Here's the breakdown

 

Top 3rd

150 samples at 4.4 and above

150 from 3.4 to 4.4

150 from 2.8 to 3.4

150 from 2.4 to 2.8

 

Middle 3rd:

150 from 2.1 to 2.4

150 from 1.7 to 2.1

150 from 1.4 to 1.7

150 from 1.1 to 1.4 Middle of the middle 1.1 to 1.7

 

Lower 3rd:

0.7 to 1.1

0.3 to 0.7

0.0 to 0.3

-1.6 to 0.0

Again, look at the charts. He is something between average and below average. I understand what you are trying to do here, but it doesn’t work that way.

 

Also if you have more bad years than good in most of your career you can’t be a good pitcher. It’s that simple.

Edited July 27, 2021 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Where do you get the average or 1.9 BWAR?

 

Just curious.

 

He is actually at reserve level based on the BBR chart. Between 0-2.

 

He is not even at the Starter level (average) —2+ bWAR.

[iortiz]

Wins Above Replacement for Pitchers

From BBR

 

“A single number that presents the number of wins the player added

to the team above what a replacement player (think AAA or AAAA) would add. This value includes defensive support and includes additional value for high leverage situations.

Scale: 8+ MVP Quality, 5+ All-Star Quality, 2+ Starter,

0-2 Reserve,

Developed by Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com”

[moonslav59]

Again, look at the charts. He is something between average and below average. I understand what you are trying to do here, but it doesn’t work that way.

 

Also if you have more bad years than good in most of your career you can’t be a good pitcher. It’s that simple.

 

When you say below average, I look to see if there are about as many pitchers ahead as behind.

 

Only counting 150 starters a year is being generous to all the SPers that were worse- so bad they never reached enough inning to qualify. When you compare him to other starters of his era, he was average in some categories and above average in others and top tier in fwAR.

 

Average does not mean 2 out of 3 pitchers are worse than you. IMO.

 

We’ve beaten this subject to death.

[moonslav59]

He is actually at reserve level based on the BBR chart. Between 0-2.

 

He is not even at the Starter level (average) —2+ bWAR.

Can you try to answer my question?

[iortiz]

When you say below average, I look to see if there are about as many pitchers ahead as behind.

 

Only counting 150 starters a year is being generous to all the SPers that were worse- so bad they never reached enough inning to qualify. When you compare him to other starters of his era, he was average in some categories and above average in others and top tier in fwAR.

 

Average does not mean 2 out of 3 pitchers are worse than you. IMO.

 

We’ve beaten this subject to death.

 

I’m just pointing out what FG and BBR call a pitcher something between average and below average based on Porcello’s career numbers.

Edited July 27, 2021 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Can you try to answer my question?

 

It was my bad.

 

The 1.9 bWAR represents his average bWAR through 162 games, BBR say “This is an attempt to condense each pitcher's career into a single season's worth of stats. With batters this is easy. Just take their career games played and divide by 162 and then divide their career totals by that factor. For pitchers, this is more difficult. What we have done is treat a pitcher season as having Games Pitched + Games Started = 68 as a single-season. So we normalize everything, so a pitcher has Games + Games Started = 68. So an average season is 34 starts or 68 relief appearances”

 

OTOH if you divide his 20.1 bWAR/11.4 years he averages 1.7 bWAR/year.

 

In any case he is a career Reserve Level Pitcher based on bWAR— below average.

[iortiz]

Let's go over every pitcher from 2009-2020, season by season. That's 12 seasons x 150 pitchers (5 per team x 30 teams.)

 

That's 1800 sample sizes of the top 150 pitchers over 12 years.

 

Guess how many had a 2.6 fWAR out of over 1800 samples?

 

It's 555. So a 2.6 fWAR would place you in the upper third tier (600-600-600).

 

If being in the upper third is mediocre, then our issue is not with Porcello. It's what you and others see as being mediocre vs good.

 

Here's the breakdown

 

Top 3rd

150 samples at 4.4 and above

150 from 3.4 to 4.4

150 from 2.8 to 3.4

150 from 2.4 to 2.8

 

Middle 3rd:

150 from 2.1 to 2.4

150 from 1.7 to 2.1

150 from 1.4 to 1.7

150 from 1.1 to 1.4 Middle of the middle 1.1 to 1.7

 

Lower 3rd:

0.7 to 1.1

0.3 to 0.7

0.0 to 0.3

-1.6 to 0.0

 

The issue moon is that FG and BR don’t use your scale in their charts. This is why your analysis is wrong and flawed.

 

In FG for instance, they have 7 levels in every chart for each stat in order to rate a player. Also, those levels and thresholds change depending on the stat.

 

Said that, this is why your analysis don’t apply to rate players. Take a look at the charts.

Edited July 27, 2021 by iortiz

[a700hitter]

The best verdict on Porcello is the verdict of 30 GMs who all need pitching. None of them are knocking on Porcello’s door who is only 31 years old and healthy. That speaks volumes.

[iortiz]

The best verdict on Porcello is the verdict of 30 GMs who all need pitching. None of them are knocking on Porcello’s door who is only 31 years old and healthy. That speaks volumes.

 

LOL as always you have better and easier answers than me compadre.

 

Yeah, some 31 yo players are still in their prime but he looks like he is done.

Edited July 27, 2021 by iortiz

[harmony]

The best verdict on Porcello is the verdict of 30 GMs who all need pitching. None of them are knocking on Porcello’s door who is only 31 years old and healthy. That speaks volumes.

Perhaps 30 general managers "are knocking on Porcello’s door" but the righthander's asking price is too high or his list of destinations is too short.

 

Or not.

[iortiz]

Perhaps 30 general managers "are knocking on Porcello’s door" but the righthander's asking price is too high or his list of destinations is too short.

 

Or not.

 

Probably he is trying to sell that he is still a good pitcher (No. 3), but most managers think he is nothing but a No. 5 these days at best.

 

Last year he was destroyed in the NL. The year before that he was destroyed in Boston.

[moonslav59]

The issue moon is that FG and BR don’t use your scale in their charts. This is why your analysis is wrong and flawed.

 

In FG for instance, they have 7 levels in every chart for each stat in order to rate a player. Also, those levels and thresholds change depending on the stat.

 

Said that, this is why your analysis don’t apply to rate players. Take a look at the charts.

 

Why do you assume I don’t look at the charts?

 

I don’t have to agree with everything fangraphs and br print, lord knows you don’t, otherwise you’d more respect Porcello’s 19th place ranking.

 

We both have different views. I’m not inventing my own way of rating anyone. I’ve always looked in context.

[moonslav59]

Probably he is trying to sell that he is still a good pitcher (No. 3), but most managers think he is nothing but a No. 5 these days at best.

 

Last year he was destroyed in the NL. The year before that he was destroyed in Boston.

 

Moving goalposts again.

 

Just stop.

 

Let’s get back to the 2021 Sox.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure our pen needs tweaking. With Valdez and Houck back in the fold and Sawamura coming back at some point, we may be fine, here. Plus, when Sale comes back, a starter will be pushed to the pen or maybe even traded.

 

I think our biggest need is SP'er with 1B a second priority. Even with Sale added, the questions surrounding ERod and his head aches and COVID recovery linger, but perhaps the biggest worry is what we expect from Perez & Richards (and to some extent Pivetta) going forward.

 

Here are the pessimistic, cherry-picked numbers on these 3 starters:

 

After first 11 starts (1/3 season)

 

Perez

5.94 ERA/ 1.003 OPS Against in last 9 starts

(3.09/.658 first 11 starts)

(1.98/.587 in 7 starts 4/24 to 6/7)

 

Richards

6.99 ERA/.990 OPS Against in last 8 starts

(3.75/.749 first 11 starts)

 

Pivetta

5.44 ERA/ .853 OPS Againstin last 9 starts)

(3.77/.657 in first 11 starts)

 

I think we can stick with Pivetta as our #4 or #5, but I think Richards and/or Perez should be demoted to the pen or traded to make room for Sale and a pitcher we acquire by trade. I'm not for trimming our pitcher choices: I'm for improving them. We should not count on Sale as being our ace in August or September. We should cover our bases with ERod. We should improve on Richards and/or Perez.

 

I'm not thinking we will shoot for the moon on someone like Scherzer or Berrios, but we should be able to get someone who is an upgrade over the recent productivity we've gotten fro Richards and Perez.

 

Reaching for some sort of bright spot on these two, I can come up with this:

 

5.17/.824 Richards in his last 3 starts.

 

3.55/.845 Perez in his last 7 starts, but 4.74/.937 last 4 starts.

 

The deadline is 4 pm on the 30th. How much more will we find out about these two, before it's too late?

 

We should make a move to replace at least one of these two- maybe both. Putting one in the pen may help, but who get's squeezed out? Houck could start, but he looks like a great pen piece.

 

Our 100% Healthy Staff:

 

Sale

Eovaldi

ERod

Pivetta

Perez

Richards

 

Barnes

Ottavino

Whitlock

Houck

Taylor

DHern

Valdez

Sawamura (14th pitcher)

Rios

Andriese

Workman

Bazardo

Brasier

Seabold

 

If we add a pitcher without dealing one, who goes? I realize someone may be on the IL, but it looks like we need to find a place for 2-3 pitchers, once we add Sale and a traded pitcher.

[oldtimer]

I'm not sure our pen needs tweaking. With Valdez and Houck back in the fold and Sawamura coming back at some point, we may be fine, here. Plus, when Sale comes back, a starter will be pushed to the pen or maybe even traded.

 

I think our biggest need is SP'er with 1B a second priority. Even with Sale added, the questions surrounding ERod and his head aches and COVID recovery linger, but perhaps the biggest worry is what we expect from Perez & Richards (and to some extent Pivetta) going forward.

 

Here are the pessimistic, cherry-picked numbers on these 3 starters:

 

After first 11 starts (1/3 season)

 

Perez

5.94 ERA/ 1.003 OPS Against in last 9 starts

(3.09/.658 first 11 starts)

(1.98/.587 in 7 starts 4/24 to 6/7)

 

Richards

6.99 ERA/.990 OPS Against in last 8 starts

(3.75/.749 first 11 starts)

 

Pivetta

5.44 ERA/ .853 OPS Againstin last 9 starts)

(3.77/.657 in first 11 starts)

 

I think we can stick with Pivetta as our #4 or #5, but I think Richards and/or Perez should be demoted to the pen or traded to make room for Sale and a pitcher we acquire by trade. I'm not for trimming our pitcher choices: I'm for improving them. We should not count on Sale as being our ace in August or September. We should cover our bases with ERod. We should improve on Richards and/or Perez.

 

I'm not thinking we will shoot for the moon on someone like Scherzer or Berrios, but we should be able to get someone who is an upgrade over the recent productivity we've gotten fro Richards and Perez.

 

Reaching for some sort of bright spot on these two, I can come up with this:

 

5.17/.824 Richards in his last 3 starts.

 

3.55/.845 Perez in his last 7 starts, but 4.74/.937 last 4 starts.

 

The deadline is 4 pm on the 30th. How much more will we find out about these two, before it's too late?

 

We should make a move to replace at least one of these two- maybe both. Putting one in the pen may help, but who get's squeezed out? Houck could start, but he looks like a great pen piece.

 

Our 100% Healthy Staff:

 

Sale

Eovaldi

ERod

Pivetta

Perez

Richards

 

Barnes

Ottavino

Whitlock

Houck

Taylor

DHern

Valdez

Sawamura (14th pitcher)

Rios

Andriese

Workman

Bazardo

Brasier

Seabold

 

If we add a pitcher without dealing one, who goes? I realize someone may be on the IL, but it looks like we need to find a place for 2-3 pitchers, once we add Sale and a traded pitcher.

 

The question is whether do we need a starter or a reliever. I would think Houck is a wild card here for the regular season. Should we use him as a starter or long reliever? If we have Sale, Eovaldi, E-Rod and Pivetta as starters and use Houck as our 5th, Then trade Richards and assume Brasier will only make it back to fill an injury slot, We have Perez as a 6th starter or long reliever. The question is whether we can find a better starter/reliever that can make a difference and whether it's worth exceeding the CBT to do so. I believe Richards is tradeable and we really do need a firstbaseman.

[moonslav59]

The question is whether do we need a starter or a reliever. I would think Houck is a wild card here for the regular season. Should we use him as a starter or long reliever? If we have Sale, Eovaldi, E-Rod and Pivetta as starters and use Houck as our 5th, Then trade Richards and assume Brasier will only make it back to fill an injury slot, We have Perez as a 6th starter or long reliever. The question is whether we can find a better starter/reliever that can make a difference and whether it's worth exceeding the CBT to do so. I believe Richards is tradeable and we really do need a firstbaseman.

 

I'd trade Richards with some cash for scraps. Save a little money.

 

Trade some prospects we don't think fit our long term plans for a a decent SP'er (better than Perez/Richards).

 

If we have some cash left over, try and pick up a cheap 1Bman that can improve on Dalbec or platoon with him.

 

I think we can do all this and stay under the tax line, but going over would not hurt us, too much.

 

(We might also trade Perez for scraps, save some more money, and trade for a RP'er.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Starting to think the Sox will explore every shot at acquiring a good starting pitcher up to Friday, and if all else fails, they'll then go hard after a good bullpen arm. Most posters think there's no way Bloom will trade any top prospects to make a splash, but what if the target isn't a rental, but someone he envisions as part of that sustainable core he always discusses?

 

This deadline may not be just about going all-in for '21...

 

The Reds' Luis Castillo is 4-10 with a 4.20 ERA (and other mediocre metrics), but still holds a 79.4 trade value on the simulator. Compare that with some of the Marlins' young guns: Sanchez 56.1, Alcantara 61.9, Lopez 82.7... Jose Berrios is only 42.9.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd trade Richards with some cash for scraps. Save a little money.

 

Trade some prospects we don't think fit our long term plans for a a decent SP'er (better than Perez/Richards).

 

If we have some cash left over, try and pick up a cheap 1Bman that can improve on Dalbec or platoon with him.

 

I think we can do all this and stay under the tax line, but going over would not hurt us, too much.

 

(We might also trade Perez for scraps, save some more money, and trade for a RP'er.)

 

I highly doubt they trade Richards or Perez. Bloom acquired them, I think he likes them.

[mvp 78]

I highly doubt they trade Richards or Perez. Bloom acquired them, I think he likes them.

 

I just don't see anyone wanting them at this point.

[Bellhorn04]

I just don't see anyone wanting them at this point.

 

Bloom likes Perez enough to sign him twice, and Perez is having a Perez season. Why would Bloom trade him?

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

So happy for Verdugo, he needed that.

[notin]

Starting to think the Sox will explore every shot at acquiring a good starting pitcher up to Friday, and if all else fails, they'll then go hard after a good bullpen arm. Most posters think there's no way Bloom will trade any top prospects to make a splash, but what if the target isn't a rental, but someone he envisions as part of that sustainable core he always discusses?

 

This deadline may not be just about going all-in for '21...

 

The Reds' Luis Castillo is 4-10 with a 4.20 ERA (and other mediocre metrics), but still holds a 79.4 trade value on the simulator. Compare that with some of the Marlins' young guns: Sanchez 56.1, Alcantara 61.9, Lopez 82.7... Jose Berrios is only 42.9.

 

They've been moving the value of Castillo down for a while now. Less than 1 eyar ago, it was over 100.

 

I imagine if we look back a year from now, Alcantara and Sanchez will be reaching much higher values as they develop and get better. Berrios has just one year left after this season, while Castillo has two...

[a700hitter]

Probably he is trying to sell that he is still a good pitcher (No. 3), but most managers think he is nothing but a No. 5 these days at best.

 

Last year he was destroyed in the NL. The year before that he was destroyed in Boston.

He signed with the Mets in 2020 for $9 million. I can’t imagine that he would be asking for more than that after s***ing the bed in 2020. That is short money for a #3. I guess the GM’s don’t think he is a #3.

[iortiz]

Why do you assume I don’t look at the charts?

 

I don’t have to agree with everything fangraphs and br print, lord knows you don’t, otherwise you’d more respect Porcello’s 19th place ranking.

 

We both have different views. I’m not inventing my own way of rating anyone. I’ve always looked in context.

 

Moon, putting Porcello in the same tier of very good & HOF pitchers in terms of WAR (for instance) doesn't make sense at all, reason why your analysis is flawed and out of context to start off.

 

FG & BR built several levels with different thresholds in every stat in order to differentiate pedigrees. In almost every stat based on those charts, he ranks between average and below average in his career. Both sources can't be wrong of what they see in Porcello.

 

Said that, sure, you can do all the the analysis you want and believe whatever you want, but your arguments are way different of what 2 of the most respectable baseball sources see in Porcello (Between Average and Below Average)—based on their charts.

[iortiz]

Moving goalposts again.

 

Just stop.

 

Let’s get back to the 2021 Sox.

 

 

mmm not sure what yo mean with goalpost but it was a honest answer.

 

Probably it is what is happening. Probably he is trying to sell himself higher. I don't blame him, but I don't blame GMs for not buying either.