A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Kimmi]

Only 4 of those 7 low-inning starts were bad.

 

He was yanked one time after 3.2 innings with no earned runs allowed. Sure, it would have been nice for him to go 5, but 3.2 and 0 ER is not "bad."

 

Any starter who can have just 4 bad starts out of 19 is worth way more than $6M.

 

The problem is, his last 8 starts. If he continues at that pace, he's not worth $6M.

 

Let's see what he does over the next 10 weeks.

 

You don't have to sell me on Perez. As you said, let's see what happens over the next 10 weeks, but as of now, I would pick up his option.

[moonslav59]

Agreed.

 

Perez isn’t a long term solution (and his contracts indicate no one thinks he is). But if he’s your weak link in the rotation, things are not as bad as some might fear.

 

Depth over quality is a bigger factor for this team, even with Sale coming back at some point…

 

Richards is the weak link not Perez.

 

At times, Perez has looked like our best starter, and I'm not talking a 3-4 game stretch. From opening day to June 3rd, he was our best starter.

 

That was 11 starts or 1/3 of a season!

 

3.09 ERA

 

From 4/23 to 6/7 (8 starts) he was on fire

2.22 ERA

.614 OPS Against

 

After that 7.2 IP game in Houston, where maybe they left him in too long, he's gone ...

 

4-4

6.23 ERA

1.024 OPS Against in 8 starts.

 

That's not even worth a minor league deal.

[moonslav59]

You don't have to sell me on Perez. As you said, let's see what happens over the next 10 weeks, but as of now, I would pick up his option.

 

I know you like Perez. I just used your post to further your argument.

[moonslav59]

Porcello was a very good starting pitcher. JD Drew was a very good RFer.

 

Thank you for coming to my TedTalk.

 

I think some people have different ideas on what "mediocre," "good," and "very good" mean.

 

To me, mediocre means you have about the same amount of players better and worse than you. Clearly, Porcello had way more worse.

 

Good might mean top 40%.

 

Very good, top 25-30%.

 

Excellent, top 10-25%.

 

Elite, top 5 or 10%.

 

(IMO)

 

If I lower the IP to 300 IP to get to a 300 SP'er sample size, Porcello places 126th in SIERA at 4.10.

 

95th in xFIP- at 96.

 

The guy was a good pitcher. Not great. Not elite. Not bad. Not really mediocre, either.

 

Edited July 23, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

As a defensive RF, JD did some stuff that amazed me. Like how he never broke stride when cleanly fielding ground balls in the outfield. Veteran starting outfielder routinely work on fielding the ball while running and timing everything so the proper foot is forward when they pick up the grounder. JD just did it…

 

His whole game looked effortless. That's why people were down on him.

[mvp 78]

I think some people have different ideas on what "mediocre," "good," and "very good" mean.

 

To me, mediocre means you have about the same amount of players better and worse than you. Clearly, Porcello had way more worse.

 

Good might mean top 40%.

 

Very good, top 25-30%.

 

Excellent, top 10-25%.

 

Elite, top 5 or 10%.

 

(IMO)

 

If I lower the IP to 300 IP to get to a 300 SP'er sample size, Porcello places 126th in SIERA at 4.10.

 

95th in xFIP- at 96.

 

The guy was a good pitcher. Not great. Not elite. Not bad. Not really mediocre, either.

 

 

He won a CY. He was very good.

[moonslav59]

He won a CY. He was very good.

 

I'd say between good and very good, but more good.

 

He was elite that one season and mediocre to good all the others.

[mvp 78]

Porcello was 19th best in fWAR from 2009 - 2020. Over 293 pitchers had over 500 innings during that time period. He's in the top 10% of those guys. I guess that's "very good."

[Bellhorn04]

Porcello was a very good starting pitcher. JD Drew was a very good RFer.

 

Thank you for coming to my TedTalk.

 

I will give Porcello a "good", not a "very good".

 

No argument on Drew.

[Bellhorn04]

Porcello was 19th best in fWAR from 2009 - 2020. Over 293 pitchers had over 500 innings during that time period. He's in the top 10% of those guys. I guess that's "very good."

 

Let's not forget that WAR is a counting stat, though.

 

I see no reason why the stat geeks can't give us a WAR rate stat too...

[mvp 78]

Let's not forget that WAR is a counting stat, though.

 

I see no reason why the stat geeks can't give us a WAR rate stat too...

 

What's the point in a better rate if you play less?

[notin]

Let's not forget that WAR is a counting stat, though.

 

I see no reason why the stat geeks can't give us a WAR rate stat too...

 

I think that’s an advantage. Who cares about ERA when you only pitch 50 IP?

[Bellhorn04]

What's the point in a better rate if you play less?

 

OK. But as I already showed, Porcello's average season fWAR is 2.6.

 

And his average season bWAR is only about 1.75.

[Bellhorn04]

I think that’s an advantage. Who cares about ERA when you only pitch 50 IP?

 

Apparently major league GM's cared about Porcello's 5.64 ERA in 59 IP in 2020...

[notin]

Apparently major league GM's cared about Porcello's 5.64 ERA in 59 IP in 2020...

 

But not Trevor Williams’ 5.68?

 

I think there is more to why Porcello wasn’t signed than just his ERA…

[Bellhorn04]

I think there is more to why Porcello wasn’t signed than just his ERA…

 

As in looking for too much money?

[moonslav59]

Porcello was 19th best in fWAR from 2009 - 2020. Over 293 pitchers had over 500 innings during that time period. He's in the top 10% of those guys. I guess that's "very good."

 

That's his best ranking. Other categories show him in the middle or even below average. Some better pitchers of his era did very well before 2009 or are doing well in 2021, but those stats are left out.

 

His IP'd gives him more value than many want to give him. Innings are enormously valuable, even if mediocre or slightly above average, but many of his stats show him below average.

 

I think he was good. I can see why people can view him as mediocre or slightly above average or even "very good."

[moonslav59]

Let's not forget that WAR is a counting stat, though.

 

I see no reason why the stat geeks can't give us a WAR rate stat too...

 

Yes.

 

His high fWAR ranking is almost totally based on his high IP'd.

[notin]

As in looking for too much money?

 

Absolutely a possibility….

[moonslav59]

I'm a big Porcello fan and think he's closer to very good than mediocre. I'd say he was just plain "good."

 

The innings pitched factor is hard to quantify, especially if you view his ERA+ or ERA-, WHIP and other stats as looking mediocre and think more innings of mediocre is valuable, but not "very good."

 

Here's another way to look ay Porcello's numbers from 2009-2020. Let's look at just the 31 pitchers with 1500+ IP. Here's how Rick places in this group:

 

14th fWAR

23rd SIERA

24th xFIP

27th ERA-

27th WHIP

[mvp 78]

As in looking for too much money?

 

Has to be.

[mvp 78]

I'm a big Porcello fan and think he's closer to very good than mediocre. I'd say he was just plain "good."

 

The innings pitched factor is hard to quantify, especially if you view his ERA+ or ERA-, WHIP and other stats as looking mediocre and think more innings of mediocre is valuable, but not "very good."

 

Here's another way to look ay Porcello's numbers from 2009-2020. Let's look at just the 31 pitchers with 1500+ IP. Here's how Rick places in this group:

 

14th fWAR

23rd SIERA

24th xFIP

27th ERA-

27th WHIP

 

Sounds like a very good pitcher to me.

[Bellhorn04]

Sounds like a very good pitcher to me.

 

Those are all out of 31.

[mvp 78]

Those are all out of 31.

 

Only 31 pitchers were able to throw that many innings. Those are most likely some of the best pitchers in the league.

[Hugh2]

Insanely ridiculous way too early hot take on Durans .646 OPS in 13 at bats.

 

If Duran struggles, at what point do the "call em up crowd" start calling him a bust (or to be sent down) and the "lets be patient, he's coming" crowd starts defending him and saying we need more time?

 

Of course, if he starts mashing this will never happen but I say.....about 4-5 days.

[mvp 78]

Insanely ridiculous way too early hot take on Durans .646 OPS in 13 at bats.

 

If Duran struggles, at what point do the "call em up crowd" start calling him a bust (or to be sent down) and the "lets be patient, he's coming" crowd starts defending him and saying we need more time?

 

Of course, if he starts mashing this will never happen but I say.....about 4-5 days.

 

August 1.

[mvp 78]

Rick Porcello averaged 6 innings per start from 2010 - 2020. That's vary good.

[iortiz]

His ERA- and WHIP make him a solid #4 (almost a 3).

 

His xFIP makes him a #2.

 

His durability and IP upped his fWAR to make him a solid #1.

 

All together, he is certainly a #3 or maybe a low #2.

 

I'm not downplaying ERA. If I did, he'd be a solid #2.

 

I'm looking at other pitchers in his era. I only counted pitchers with 800+ IP. My guess is many who did not reach that threshold were much worse than Rick, ut some would be better.

 

Compared to other starters of his time, he was a clear #3. On a good playoff team, you'd like to see him be your #4, ut that doesn't make him one overall.

Well here's my ERA & Run Prevention Estimator (RPE) Scale which apply to ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, etc.

 

Under 3 Excelent to Elite —No. 1

Between 3.5 and 3 Very Good —No 2.

Between 3.5 and 4 Good — No 3.

Between 4 and 4.5 Mediocre/Average —No 4.

Above 4.5 Below Average/ Bum —No. 5

 

Said that, this is Porcello based on RPE:

 

ERA 4.40 (No 4)

FIP 4.06 (No 4)

xFIP 4.04 (No 4)

SIERA 4.1 (No 4)

 

He is consistently a No. 4 pitcher based on RPE; i.e. Mediocre/Average.

 

Based on fWAR he has a 29.6 fWAR through 11.4 years of service, i.e. 2.6 fWAR/year.

 

A 2.6 fWAR puts your pedigree as a SP in the 5th level out of 7 levels in the fangraphs' rule-of-thumb chart; i.e As Solid Player.

 

A Solid Player is not Good and way far to Very Good which IMO those levels are among AllStar, Superstar and MVP. It could be translated as Average/Mediocre.

 

MVP 6+

Superstar 5-6 fWAR

Allstar 4-5 fWAR

Good Player 3-4 fWAR

Solid Player 2-3 fWAR

Role Player 1-2 fWAR

Scrub Player 0-1 fWAR

 

As I said, Rick Porcello was/is not a Good pitcher by any means and way, way far to Very Good.

[moonslav59]

Sounds like a very good pitcher to me.

 

Out of 31 not really

[mvp 78]

As I said, Rick Porcello was/is not a Good pitcher by any means and way, way far to Very Good.

 

With that stamp of approval, he's definitely Hall of Very Good material.