A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[mvp 78]

With Vaz's tenure almost up, I think we do.

 

He's doing well, this year and Wong is no sure bet.

 

Hernandez is a bat only catcher who has an OPS of 767 in AA. There's a non zero chance he needs to be moved off position and his bat may not carry him anywhere else.

 

May: 729 OPS

June: 543 OPS

July: 1222 OPS

 

For a guy who was on a taxi squad last year, he needed to start faster than he did. I hope he can continue his hot streak, but we'll have to see.

[moonslav59]

Hernandez is a bat only catcher who has an OPS of 767 in AA. There's a non zero chance he needs to be moved off position and his bat may not carry him anywhere else.

 

May: 729 OPS

June: 543 OPS

July: 1222 OPS

 

For a guy who was on a taxi squad last year, he needed to start faster than he did. I hope he can continue his hot streak, but we'll have to see.

 

.767 is a very good OPS for a catcher.

[mvp 78]

.767 is a very good OPS for a catcher.

 

For a bat first AA catcher? No.

[moonslav59]

For a bat first AA catcher? No.

 

Better than bat first Vaz at .650.

 

MLB OPS for Catchers in 2021: .686.

 

Of course, I'm assuming he stays around .760 in the bigs, which is no sure bet.

[mvp 78]

Better than bat first Vaz at .650.

 

MLB OPS for Catchers in 2021: .686.

 

Of course, I'm assuming he stays around .760 in the bigs, which is no sure bet.

 

Do AA stats translate 1/1 to MLB now? What would Vaz hit in POR this year? 1000 OPS?

 

Vaz also is a good catcher, Hernandez isn't. He has a good arm, but is worse than Gary Sanchez and doesn't have Sanchez' bat.

[moonslav59]

Do AA stats translate 1/1 to MLB now? What would Vaz hit in POR this year? 1000 OPS?

 

Vaz also is a good catcher, Hernandez isn't. He has a good arm, but is worse than Gary Sanchez and doesn't have Sanchez' bat.

 

Well, .767 is good for any catcher. It's not a reason to cut him.

 

He may improve on defense like VTek did after age 28.

[mvp 78]

Well, .767 is good for any catcher. It's not a reason to cut him.

 

He may improve on defense like VTek did after age 28.

 

I don't believe he is a catcher. Again, we'll have to see how the rest of the season goes. If he continues to mash like he has done recent, they won't let him go. If he hits like June?

[Nick]

I don't believe he is a catcher. Again, we'll have to see how the rest of the season goes. If he continues to mash like he has done recent, they won't let him go. If he hits like June?

 

Supposedly he has plus arm but not much else behind the plate defensively.

[mvp 78]

Santana is getting activated today with Arroyo possibly going on the IL.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I agree that 1b has turned into a crucial black hole for the Red Sox. If the Red Sox could get 1b fixed, they would (1) dump a fringe player in Dalbec and not waste a roster spot on him, (2) improve the offense, (3) divert depth like Cordero and Arroyo (when he returns) to other areas. Thus, if the Red Sox had C.Santana at 1b, they would immediately upgrade the offense and could use a player like Cordero to help out Hunter Renfroe (against RHP) and improve the offense at a second position.

 

For me, 1b is turning into greatest need #1. On the pitching front, an improved E-Rod, Sale's return, and Houck provide optimism, whereas 1b continues to be a clown show. It would be nice to upgrade the pitching staff too, but 1b should be the top priority.

 

I'm going to revisit the 40 man roster issue after the deadline. After making a few deals, the Red Sox can open up space. I would think that Scherff is making a strong case. Hunter Crawford is an interesting guy too with fantastic ratios. The question for Crawford concerns his transition to the bullpen. If his stuff plays up in shorter stints, he could turn into a really good bullpen arm. He seems to have impeccable control.

Edited July 19, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

I don't believe he is a catcher. Again, we'll have to see how the rest of the season goes. If he continues to mash like he has done recent, they won't let him go. If he hits like June?

 

I admit, I don't know much about him, except that BTV rated him highly, and soxprospects.com, too.

 

Catchers often take much longer to get good on D. I mentioned VTek as one late bloomer, but there are many more.

 

I doubt we give up on him to clear a roster slot. Maybe he ends up at another position, but I'm not sure any of us know if that is in the works.

[moonslav59]

Supposedly he has plus arm but not much else behind the plate defensively.

 

soxprospects:

'

 

Physical Description: Thick, mature frame. Sturdy catcher's build.

 

Hit: Starts open and utilizes a short leg kick timing device. Loads high and keeps his hands up throughout. Will not swing-and-miss often, but rarely walks and his approach needs work. Can be overly aggressive and has trouble recognizing spin. Has had issues with timing in the past. Potential below-average hit tool.

 

Power: Plus raw power. Can really impact the baseball, especially up in the zone. Power is mainly to the pull side; every home run in his career prior to being acquired by the Red Sox was to left or left-center. Ability to tap into raw power will depend on how his hit tool develops. Potential average in-game power.

 

Run: Well-below-average speed. Not a part of his game.

 

Field: Does not move well behind the plate. Framing and receiving need a lot of work. Potential fringe-average glove.

 

Arm: Plus-plus arm. Does a good job controlling the running game. Arm is a weapon.

Career Notes: Acquired from the Rays in February 2021 with Nick Sogard for Jeffrey Springs and Chris Mazza. Spent much of the 2020 traveling with the Rays on the taxi squad. Was added to the Rays 40-man roster in November 2019. Was an infielder before signing with the Rays, moving behind the plate after signing.

 

Summation: Potential bat-first backup catcher, but has a wide range of outcomes and has everyday upside. Power and arm are carrying tools, but questions about his approach and hit tool and defensive profile cloud his future projection. Type of defensive profile that could really benefit from robot umps. If he can even develop into a fringe-average defender with a below-average hit tool, could be an everyday player given his power and arm.

[Nick]

Looking to 2022....

 

When I graduated from college as a future CPA, I was counseled to buy good suits. My buddy went the other way, he bought several suits on the cheap. The logic was that I would always pick a nicer suit out of my closet when given a choice.

 

Free agents will not deplete our farm system. It's just money. Losing draft picks will not hurt as much when you're expected to pick in lower spots.

 

Is it better to give out a $30M contract as opposed to three mid level contracts, hoping to get a greater value in return?

 

Richards, Perez and Ottavino is on our books for $22.1M.

 

Wouldn't it be better to add a $30M stud to go with Sale, Eovaldi and E Rod?

 

Yes, I'm beginning to think E Rod will be extended before the season is over.

Edited July 19, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

soxprospects:'

 

 

Field: Does not move well behind the plate. Framing and receiving need a lot of work. Potential fringe-average glove.

[moonslav59]

I agree that 1b has turned into a crucial black hole for the Red Sox. If the Red Sox could get 1b fixed, they would (1) dump a fringe player in Dalbec and not waste a roster spot on him, (2) improve the offense, (3) divert depth like Cordero and Arroyo (when he returns) to other areas. Thus, if the Red Sox had C.Santana at 1b, they would immediately upgrade the offense and could use a player like Cordero to help out Hunter Renfroe (against RHP) and improve the offense at a second position.

 

For me, 1b is turning into greatest need #1. On the pitching front, an improved E-Rod, Sale's return, and Houck provide optimism, whereas 1b continues to be a clown show. It would be nice to upgrade the pitching staff too, but 1b should be the top priority.

 

I'm going to revisit the 40 man roster issue after the deadline. After making a few deals, the Red Sox can open up space. I would think that Scherff is making a strong case. Hunter Crawford is an interesting guy too with fantastic ratios. The question for Crawford concerns his transition to the bullpen. If his stuff plays up in shorter stints, he could turn into a really good bullpen arm. He seems to have impeccable control.

 

They'd dump Santana and Chavis before Dalbec.

 

They will also give him another chance, if they ever do demote him. (IMO)

[moonslav59]

soxprospects:'

 

 

Field: Does not move well behind the plate. Framing and receiving need a lot of work. Potential fringe-average glove.

 

He's 23. Needs a lot of work does not mean he's toast as a catcher.

 

By the time he makes the bigs, we may have robo-umps. That would help.

[moonslav59]

They'd dump Santana and Chavis before Dalbec.

 

They will also give him another chance, if they ever do demote him. (IMO)

 

I'm not projecting or predicting greatness, but the guy is ranked highly by a couple sites, so I'm keeping him around a while longer. Vaz is a FA after 2022.

[Nick]

No rentals at all? Not even like the ones we got in 2018? He said that?

 

Yes, He just said it in MassLive article couple of days ago....subscriber only. I don't make up everything......I'm talking about Bloom and and he was hired in October 2019.

[moonslav59]

soxprospects:'

 

 

Field: Does not move well behind the plate. Framing and receiving need a lot of work. Potential fringe-average glove.

 

Now, BTV is not a proven prospect evaluator, but they have been pretty accurate on trade values, so far.

 

Here's how they value our prospects in order of value:

48 Casas

45 Duran

20 Downs

11 Jimenez

10 Mata

7 R Hernandez

7 Yorke

5 Seabold

4 Groome, Ward, Bello

3 Ramirez, Winckoski, Rosario

 

(Soxprospects.com moved him from #14 to #24, recently.)

 

[mvp 78]

I agree that 1b has turned into a crucial black hole for the Red Sox. If the Red Sox could get 1b fixed, they would (1) dump a fringe player in Dalbec and not waste a roster spot on him, (2) improve the offense, (3) divert depth like Cordero and Arroyo (when he returns) to other areas. Thus, if the Red Sox had C.Santana at 1b, they would immediately upgrade the offense and could use a player like Cordero to help out Hunter Renfroe (against RHP) and improve the offense at a second position.

 

For me, 1b is turning into greatest need #1. On the pitching front, an improved E-Rod, Sale's return, and Houck provide optimism, whereas 1b continues to be a clown show. It would be nice to upgrade the pitching staff too, but 1b should be the top priority.

 

I'm going to revisit the 40 man roster issue after the deadline. After making a few deals, the Red Sox can open up space. I would think that Scherff is making a strong case. Hunter Crawford is an interesting guy too with fantastic ratios. The question for Crawford concerns his transition to the bullpen. If his stuff plays up in shorter stints, he could turn into a really good bullpen arm. He seems to have impeccable control.

 

And there are always decent 1b's sitting on bottom of the barrel teams that would be cheap to trade for. It should be one of the easiest positions to fill.

[mvp 78]

I admit, I don't know much about him, except that BTV rated him highly, and soxprospects.com, too.

 

Catchers often take much longer to get good on D. I mentioned VTek as one late bloomer, but there are many more.

 

I doubt we give up on him to clear a roster slot. Maybe he ends up at another position, but I'm not sure any of us know if that is in the works.

 

He was in the teens at the start of the year at SoxProspects, he's down in the 20's now. Maybe he goes back up at some point?

[mvp 78]

Looking to 2022....

 

When I graduated from college as a future CPA, I was counseled to buy good suits. My buddy went the other way, he bought several suits on the cheap. The logic was that I would always pick a nicer suit out of my closet when given a choice.

 

Free agents will not deplete our farm system. It's just money. Losing draft picks will not hurt as much when you're expected to pick in lower spots.

 

Is it better to give out a $30M contract as opposed to three mid level contracts, hoping to get a greater value in return?

 

Richards, Perez and Ottavino is on our books for $22.1M.

 

Wouldn't it be better to add a $30M stud to go with Sale, Eovaldi and E Rod?

 

Yes, I'm beginning to think E Rod will be extended before the season is over.

 

I was counseled that if I stayed in public accounting, that I would not have a home life and would miss my kids growing up.

[Nick]

 

Now, BTV is not a proven prospect evaluator, but they have been pretty accurate on trade values, so far.

 

Here's how they value our prospects in order of value:

48 Casas

45 Duran

20 Downs

11 Jimenez

10 Mata

7 R Hernandez

7 Yorke

5 Seabold

4 Groome, Ward, Bello

3 Ramirez, Winckoski, Rosario

 

(Soxprospects.com moved him from #14 to #24, recently.)

 

 

I have higher hopes for everyone below Mata, including him. I think he'll come back stronger than ever.

Edited July 19, 2021 by Nick

[mvp 78]

 

He's 23. Needs a lot of work does not mean he's toast as a catcher.

 

By the time he makes the bigs, we may have robo-umps. That would help.

 

I don't think he's toast. I think he's a guy that may not be kept on the 40 man though.

[mvp 78]

 

Now, BTV is not a proven prospect evaluator, but they have been pretty accurate on trade values, so far.

 

Here's how they value our prospects in order of value:

48 Casas

45 Duran

20 Downs

11 Jimenez

10 Mata

7 R Hernandez

7 Yorke

5 Seabold

4 Groome, Ward, Bello

3 Ramirez, Winckoski, Rosario

 

(Soxprospects.com moved him from #14 to #24, recently.)

 

 

Uh, what about their trade value for Chavis at the start of the year. Pretty high IMO.

[Nick]

I was counseled that if I stayed in public accounting, that I would not have a home life and would miss my kids growing up.

 

I worked for a small firm (30+) so we did tax returns, mostly for our clients, in addition to year end audits. Thus I did not see the sun except on Saturday afternoons and Sundays....January through April. Pretty depressing really.

[moonslav59]

 

Uh, what about their trade value for Chavis at the start of the year. Pretty high IMO.

 

They surely have their misses, and both Chavis and Hernandez have seen their value drop, this year.

 

I just think that with Vaz being a FA after 2022, we'll keep Wong, who is not a lock to stay catching either, and Hernandez on the 40.

[moonslav59]

 

Uh, what about their trade value for Chavis at the start of the year. Pretty high IMO.

 

That is why I traded Chavis 100 times!

 

LOL!

 

[Nick]

Obviously there's a stud at 1B from Toronto, but

 

Most disconcerting thing about our 1B production is that our team OPS at the position is .393 behind the leader. There are 4 AL teams with OPS greater than .800.

 

Compare that position to catching, where the Sox are close to bottom but the difference between the top spot and the Sox is only .144. There are no teams posting ops greater than .800 in the American League.

 

Not sure how to fix it now that Arroyo is hurt and I doubt he returns to that position this year.

 

I wanted so much for Dalbec to succeed but he looks completely lost at times.

[mvp 78]

I worked for a small firm (30+) so we did tax returns, mostly for our clients, in addition to year end audits. Thus I did not see the sun except on Saturday afternoons and Sundays....January through April. Pretty depressing really.

 

Yeah, 8 busy seasons was enough for me.