A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[notin]

That’s a two way street, the penalties could become much harsher, which may explain every teams desire to go past the limit (LA aside)

 

But even then, if the fear (as stated) was the 2024 roster going over, the only real commitment is Chris Sale’s contract (and Bogaerts if he stays). There will be ample opportunity to get back under if the penalties are harsher…

[notin]

You can have my answer now, if you like. My final offer is this: nothing.

 

The Cubs might want more.

[notin]

Agreed. Even if the Sox got the Cubs to pay some of his contract so we don’t go over the line, I’m thinking even Groome is beyond what Bloom wants to give up.

 

I can’t speak for Bloom, but that would be a good get. While I think the BTV value of Kimbrel is low, I would suspect any trade for him doesn’t get back a surplus value exceeding, say, 5 on BTV’s model.

 

They ain’t getting Downs. Potts? Sure, if they want him…

[Noles_1335]

in terms of arms we might need come playoff time, adding a Lefty might make sense. If not a lefty, or Kimbrel, who might make the most sense? All of that would be a moot point if we move Perez or Erod to the pen. As I type this, I realize that would be ideal.

[notin]

in terms of arms we might need come playoff time, adding a Lefty might make sense. If not a lefty, or Kimbrel, who might make the most sense? All of that would be a moot point if we move Perez or Erod to the pen. As I type this, I realize that would be ideal.

 

 

The pen might see both Sale and Houck as additions this year.

 

Relievers are very common trade targets, so it’s not unlikely. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Sox add a starter…

[Kimmi]

He's a free agent after this year.

 

My bad.

 

I would have no problem offering him a 4 year deal.

[Kimmi]

In key moments Cora sent our worst assets last game.

 

My guess? Cora is gambling man.

 

Cora is a guy who is not going to chase wins, as he puts it. I don't always like the line ups that Cora puts out there, but he always has the season long goals in mind. Can't argue with that.

[moonslav59]

I can’t speak for Bloom, but that would be a good get. While I think the BTV value of Kimbrel is low, I would suspect any trade for him doesn’t get back a surplus value exceeding, say, 5 on BTV’s model.

 

They ain’t getting Downs. Potts? Sure, if they want him…

 

I do think zero BTV value is very low on Kimbrel, but I do not think Bloom is going to give up any very or moderately promising prospect.

 

One factor might be that Bloom may not value Groome or his like highly. He might be thinking he won't even rule 5 protect Groome, so if that is that case, a deal like that may not only be possible, it might be likely.

 

[dgalehouse]

The trouble with deadline deals is that they can be disruptive to the players and their families. That can affect performance. You may not get what you think you are getting. You are taking a chance. Some work out , some don't. Personally, I think the Sox are pretty well set. I wouldn't be too quick to pull the trigger on a last minute trade.

[dgalehouse]

I take BTV and similar sites with a grain of salt. Who are they ? Are they qualified to scout big league players ? How do they assign " values " to ballplayers. I wouldn't surprise me to learn that they are subsidized by MLB as a means of helping to control salaries.

[Bellhorn04]

The trouble with deadline deals is that they can be disruptive to the players and their families. That can affect performance. You may not get what you think you are getting. You are taking a chance. Some work out , some don't. Personally, I think the Sox are pretty well set. I wouldn't be too quick to pull the trigger on a last minute trade.

 

Do the names Eovaldi and Pearce ring a bell?

[dgalehouse]

Do the names Eovaldi and Pearce ring a bell?

 

Yes, they do. As I stated , sometimes they work out , sometimes they don't. You can certainly find examples of both.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, they do. As I stated , sometimes they work out , sometimes they don't. You can certainly find examples of both.

 

I would say that a strong majority of ours, going back to 2004, have worked out quite well.

[Nick]

You can have my answer now, if you like. My final offer is this: nothing.

 

Wait, wait....was that Godfather II?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Wait, wait....was that Godfather II?

 

Not even the fee for the gaming license, which I would appreciate if you would put up personally.

[moonslav59]

I take BTV and similar sites with a grain of salt. Who are they ? Are they qualified to scout big league players ? How do they assign " values " to ballplayers. I wouldn't surprise me to learn that they are subsidized by MLB as a means of helping to control salaries.

 

I think they do a pretty decent job, but they seem to be far off on a few players.

 

They update their numbers regularly.

 

They try to capture the future productive value and balance it with contractual costs or projected costs.

 

I doubt MLB has any influence over the values they give players.

 

No GM would look at these numbers.

[moonslav59]

I would say that a strong majority of ours, going back to 2004, have worked out quite well.

 

Even the year we were sellers, we ended up getting ERod and indirectly, Porcello.

[Nick]

Not even the fee for the gaming license, which I would appreciate if you would put up personally.

 

I don't think Notin got the Godfather reference....

[Nick]

I did not get satisfactory answer I think from Bellhorn (who is much smarter than me) about how to evaluate a player that went on to sign a long term contract with the club that they were traded to as a free agent?

 

Did we not get 5 years of Verdugo's service for Betts' one year of service, along with those of Wong and Downs?

 

Had Betts signed with the Yankees after spending one year with the Dodgers, isn't the trade with the Dodgers evaluated on the merits of Betts performance as a Dodger and not Dodgers and the Yankees?

 

Not sure how Betts new twelve year contract factors into the trade when Betts only had one more year with the Sox.

 

Inquiring minds want to know.

Edited July 8, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I did not get satisfactory answer I think from Bellhorn (who is much smarter than me) about how to evaluate a player that went on to sign a long term contract with the club that they were traded to as a free agent?

 

Did we get 5 years of Verdugo's service for Betts' one year of service?

 

Had Betts signed with the Yankees after spending one year with the Dodgers, isn't the trade with the Dodgers evaluated on the merits of Betts performance as a Dodger?

 

Not sure how Betts new twelve year contract factors into the trade when Betts only had one more year with the Sox.

 

Inquiring minds want to know.

 

That's how I see it, but it does seem like players often re-sign with the team they are with or traded to, so I think some see that trade as increasing LA's chance at extending/re-signing him, but yes, the signing is a separate deal and should be judged accordingly.

[Nick]

That's how I see it, but it does seem like players often re-sign with the team they are with or traded to, so I think some see that trade as increasing LA's chance at extending/re-signing him, but yes, the signing is a separate deal and should be judged accordingly.

 

Moon has spoken and there you go.....Don't give me Betts' stats for this year or next twelve years. Whatever WAR value he accumulated last year will have to stand up against WAR values for Verdugo, Wong and Downs while they are controlled by the Sox organization (Pre Free Agency).

 

As KC and the Sunshine Band sang, Moon says..."That's the way I like it...."

[moonslav59]

Moon has spoken and there you go.....Don't give me Betts' stats for this year or next twelve years. Whatever WAR value he accumulated last year will have to stand up against WAR values for Verdugo, Wong and Downs while they are controlled by the Sox organization (Pre Free Agency).

 

As KC and the Sunshine Band sang, Moon says..."That's the way I like it...."

 

Don't build me up, just to let me drop, don't stop it now.

[Nick]

Okay, Davis it is....

 

But it’s not just the numbers Davis put up last season. Scouts agree with what the numbers say, which is that this is a truly special bat with a chance to make an impact at the highest level sooner than later. The 21-year-old (he’ll turn 22 in September) is the total package at the plate, showing a good understanding of the strike zone and an ability to put the bat on the ball. FanGraphs’ scouting report linked above notes that he swung and missed just eight percent of the time this past season. But it’s the power that really carries the day. Listed at 6’2, 210, he’s a big kid and he hits the ball how you’d expect. The raw power is plus, and given his other abilities at the plate he should be able to tap into it consistently.

 

If there is an issue for Davis, it’s his defensive future. This is something I’d plan on discussing in much more detail if/when the Red Sox do select Davis, but there’s a real debate over whether or not he’ll stick at catcher. On the one hand, he has a huge arm that will be a big asset behind the plate. On the other, his framing skills are well below-average — though robo umps could make that meaningless — and his ability to move and keep the ball in front of him needs improvement as well. The good news is his bat will play even if he has to be moved off the position, but obviously he’s a much more intriguing prospect if he can combine that bat with an ability to stick behind the plate.

 

My sense over the last week or so is that it is more and more likely (though by no means a sure thing) that Leiter, Mayer, and Lawlar (all already covered here) will go with the top three, leaving the Red Sox their choice of who’s next. Davis has his flaws, but he has experience at Fenway and with Red Sox pitchers, and he’s as safe a bat as there is. They could do much worse than this selection.....Per OvertheMonster

 

What level would you start him at? Low A as a 4th Pick? I don't think so....

Edited July 8, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Are you thinking high A?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I was thinking about the Chapman trade to the Cubs as a model for Kimbrel's trade value. Torres was a top prospect, a higher ranked prospect than Downs. And unlike Kimbrel, Chapman was a rental. By trading for Kimbrel, the Red Sox would have a closer for next season and could wave goodbye to Barnes and Ottavino.

[Nick]

yes on High A...but he'd be on fast track assuming he checks all the boxes along the way.... Edited July 8, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I was thinking about the Chapman trade to the Cubs as a model for Kimbrel's trade value. Torres was a top prospect, a higher ranked prospect than Downs. And unlike Kimbrel, Chapman was a rental. By trading for Kimbrel, the Red Sox would have a closer for next season and could wave goodbye to Barnes and Ottavino.

 

We'd still need a set up man or two.

 

Also, is it a safe bet Chapman>Barnes?

[Nick]

I was thinking about the Chapman trade to the Cubs as a model for Kimbrel's trade value. Torres was a top prospect, a higher ranked prospect than Downs. And unlike Kimbrel, Chapman was a rental. By trading for Kimbrel, the Red Sox would have a closer for next season and could wave goodbye to Barnes and Ottavino.

 

Not sure I want to pay a prospect AND $16M for 2022 for Kimbrel.....Bloom won't do it....we already passed on him in the past when he signed with the cubs.

[moonslav59]

Not sure I want to pay a prospect AND $16M for 2022 for Kimbrel.....Bloom won't do it....we already passed on him in the past when he signed with the cubs.

 

Agreed. Why give a prospect for someone making FA money?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Watch out for a couple of sleepers for the Red Sox bullpen next year including German (will likely be moved to the pen), Feltman, and Scherff. All three will likely be added to the 40 man roster after the season.

 

Let's say Kimbrel is the closer (for next season), I'm not sure who the top set up guy would be--maybe Taylor, maybe D.Hernandez or Sawamura or maybe the Red Sox acquire someone via trade.

 

As far as Kimbrel goes, and the likelihood of the Red Sox trading for him, he is a dominant bullpen arm this season and that is the kind of player you would expect the Red Sox to pursue at the deadline. Do they pursue a starting 1b as well? That's a tougher question, but pursuing another bullpen arm seems likely.

Edited July 8, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs