A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Kimmi]

Agree on Cora--of course. Everyone agrees he is a difference maker.

 

But I think you give him too little credit on his decision-making, both during games and in terms of who plays on which days. Last night he stayed with Richards, who delivered 4.1 innings of shut out ball after giving up that final dinger by the Royals to give them the 5-0 lead with 1 out in the 2d inning.

 

But Friday against the Yankees he pulled Perez after 3.2 innings when he had only given up 3 runs. In that game he decided he was going all in for the win.

 

Last night, down 5-0, he stuck with Richards both to save his bullpen (worked hard recently) and to give Garrett an opportunity to show he can still pitch.

 

He got two wins because both times he used his bullpen just the right amount.

 

Oh, and he pulled Pivetta when he had a no-hitter going, another good decision that secured a win in a game in which Pivetta was very unlikely to be able to go 9. In fact, Pivetta, was smiling when he came off the mound.

 

You have cited experts who say that run differential is a vital stat in determining the overall talent/worth of a team, which means the Houston Astros are absolute world-beaters, talent-wise, because theirs is an amazing +140. Next best are the Dodgers at +104.

 

Meanwhile, the Sox are at a meager +43. Yet they are just 1/2 game behind the Astros. The experts say that just shows the Sox are lucky, but I'm thinking just maybe Cora knows what he is doing. Or he is what Napoleon used to say he preferred--a lucky general rather than a smart one.

 

I can say all this now because of course the proof of the pudding is the postseason. As you have said, the big run differential teams tend to do better then.

 

Most in game decisions, in and of themselves, don't change the win expectancy of the game very much. That's a fact.

 

That said, I do agree that Cora makes some good in game decisions based on the knowledge of his players. I think that he knows how to put his players in the best position to succeed.

 

Those two statements might seem contradictory, but they really aren't. It's more about managing the players than it is about managing the game.

 

As far as run differential goes, would it surprise you to know that the Astros are 7-8 in one run games while the Dodgers are 11-14? Both below .500. Meanwhile, those teams are 21-5 and 16-5, respectively, in blowout games. You can tell more about a team's true talent level by looking at their records in blowout games than you can by their records in one run games. Like it or not, the outcome of 1 run games is largely random.

 

I'm not saying the Red Sox aren't good. They are very good. But they've also had a bit of good fortune on their side. There's nothing wrong with that.

[Nick]

If you had to name two from next year's FA market, who are the next Pablo-HRams?

 

Our weak positions, as of now seem to be: (Assuming no extension for ERod, Barnes, Ottavino or option for Richards)

 

SP1

RP1

SP5 (Houck/Seabold/???)

RP2

1B (Dalbec/Casas? or Cordero?)

2B (Arroyo/Kike/Downs?)

CF (Kike/Duran or Cordero by shuffle?)

 

Well, I would prefer someone like deGrom, he can opt out after 2022, leaving $30.5M and $32.5M (club option) on the table. That would be a long shot.

 

Reduced spin rate for some is concerning. (G Cole comes to mind)

 

SP1 Sale (>E Rod)

SP2 Eovaldi

SP3 Piveta

SP4 Whitlock (>Richards)

SP5 Houck/Perez

 

BP1 Sawamura

BP2 Taylor

BP3 Darwinzon

BP4 Houck?

BP5 Seabold

BP6 Brasier

BP7 Bello

BP8 Ort

BP9 Bazardo

 

C_Vaz, backup

1B Dalbec/Cordero

2B Arroyo/Kike

SS Xander/Arroyo

3B Devers/Dalbec

LF Verdugo/Cordero

CF Kike/Duran

RF Renfroe/Verdugo

DH JD

 

If we go with 12 position players, I'd go to war with the group above (ok, a small war)....they'll score some runs....we've cut out $30M plus $14M for Pedey.....

 

Houck/Seabold/Bello can all start. Maybe our most urgent need is a closer. (no way I pay anyone $18M per year though)

Edited July 2, 2021 by Nick

[Kimmi]

Power of Having A Competitive Team

 

Viewership for the Red Sox on NESN this season is up 84% on the Household level versus last year’s full season average rating, and up 72% as compared to last year’s season average for A25-54. In addition, Adults 18-34 is up 53% versus last year and touts the highest rating since 2011.”

 

Put a winning team on the field and Sox fans will follow......look ma...no Mookie Betts! Bloom maybe the best thing to happen to this organization.

 

Amen. If the team is winning, the fans will be there, regardless of whether we have a Mookie Betts or not. Fans will easily fall in love with other players on the team, and they don't have to be superstars.

[Kimmi]

Well, I think you guys are going to be disappointed, unless we have an injury. If Duran comes up that would seriously reduce Kike's playing time, and Kike is playing great right now. Plus there may be concerns about Duran's defense.

 

I understand the desire to call Duran up and to strive to improve the team. But I tend to agree with you Bell. The Sox really don't see any need to call up Duran when the team is playing so well. There is no sense of urgency like there was when Devers was called up. Patience.

[Kimmi]

If Duran is going to share AB’s, he should stay in WOO.

 

They aren't calling him up if he's not going to play everyday.

[moonslav59]

Most in game decisions, in and of themselves, don't change the win expectancy of the game very much. That's a fact.

 

That said, I do agree that Cora makes some good in game decisions based on the knowledge of his players. I think that he knows how to put his players in the best position to succeed.

 

Those two statements might seem contradictory, but they really aren't. It's more about managing the players than it is about managing the game.

 

As far as run differential goes, would it surprise you to know that the Astros are 7-8 in one run games while the Dodgers are 11-14? Both below .500. Meanwhile, those teams are 21-5 and 16-5, respectively, in blowout games. You can tell more about a team's true talent level by looking at their records in blowout games than you can by their records in one run games. Like it or not, the outcome of 1 run games is largely random.

 

I'm not saying the Red Sox aren't good. They are very good. But they've also had a bit of good fortune on their side. There's nothing wrong with that.

 

This team has grit.

 

No studies can quantify that, and one can argue it is a trait that is unsustainable. Hell, I'd argue that point, too, in most cases, but this team just seems special.

 

It reminds me of 2013, and despite the fact that the 2013 Sox led the league in run differential, they were not viewed as the best team on paper.

[Kimmi]

The leadoff problem is on Cora. Why he keeps insisting on sub-.300 OBP hitters in the role is beyond me. As he already has better options (starting with Verdugo) I’m not sure he sees Duran as the solution. He might, but it wouldn’t surprise if it also changed nothing atop the lineup.

 

I see two possibilities about why Duran is still in Worcester. 1) Someone is not happy with his defense, and 2) there’s no real path to playing time if everyone is healthy. I don’t think they want him in a part time role, even as a strong side of a platoon.

 

In fact, it’s possible the guy keeping him down is the resurgent Renfroe. We all assumed Renfroe was acquired to be a weak side platoon with Benintendi, and then to be a weak side platoon with Cordero. But he’s established himself as a full time starter. If everyone is healthy, this fills the OF (with Verdugo and Kike) and leaves no real path to playing time for Duran…

 

I have been as critical of Cora and the leadoff spot as anybody, but the bottom line is that Cora and Bloom know what they're doing. The success of this year's team should be proof of that. We may not agree with it, but they have valid rationales for doing what they do.

 

In Bloom and Cora we trust.

 

If they don't think Duran should be called up yet, I'm good with that.

[moonslav59]

I understand the desire to call Duran up and to strive to improve the team. But I tend to agree with you Bell. The Sox really don't see any need to call up Duran when the team is playing so well. There is no sense of urgency like there was when Devers was called up. Patience.

 

Plus, I'm not sure if big club urgency is a major factor in making this type of call.

 

The Olympics and his readiness may be the over-riding factors.

 

We could have 2 OF injuries, and he still may not be the one we call up.

[Kimmi]

I have some stupid ideas...here's one at the top of my list.

 

I think Devers is athletic. Most of his issues defensively deals with his throwing. Is he agile enough to play 2B? Can he be taught to turn double play? With advent of defensive s***, modern day players are asked to stand away from their normal position. Obviously not as much 'travel' for 3B. Would shortening up his throws help him defensively?

 

I remember thinking how great it was to have 'power' bat at 2B. Joe Morgan of Reds comes to my mind.

 

Assuming Dalbec eventually tears cover off baseballs, we can get more offensive by having Devers play 2B, moving Dalbec to 3B.

 

Offer him 12 year, $360M contract with delayed payouts and work the deal down to $25M luxury tax payroll amount. (it's never the cash, it's always the luxury tax implication that matters)

 

With that contract, he can be convinced to play any position for the good of the team. Championship should be the only thing that would matter to him.

 

What else is there to talk about? We're exceeding all expectations. 19 freaking games over .500. (we went 54-27, both halves in 2018)

 

My feeling on Devers remains that we leave him alone. Don't do anything that might possibly mess with his mind or his confidence. I'm not just talking about this year, but next year and beyond as well. He's more than fine at 3B.

[Kimmi]

The Sox have three tough West coast games beginning tomorrow night. Oakland is no pushover. They are followed by three with the Angels who have stars but my not be as formidable as Oakland. This will be a tough trip but i hope for at least a split.

 

West coast trips are always tough, even when the west coast teams stink. I will be okay with a split, but am hoping for 4 out of 6. Oakland is opening to 100% capacity for this series. Should be fun!

[moonslav59]

Current Run Differentials (MLB ranking by W-L %)

132 HOU (5)

110 LAD (3)

95 SFG (1)

95 CWS (4)

79 SDP (7)

75 TBR (8)

64 TOR (12) Rather unlucky

62 BOS (2) Tied with SFG in standings

35 MIL (6)

30 OAK (8)

21 MIA (22) The unluckiest team

15 ATL (18) Unlucky, too

-2 WSH (15)

-2 Cubs (13)

-3 NYM (10) Almost as "lucky" than we are.

-3 NYY (14)

 

Differential between run diff ranking and W-L ranking:

+6 BOS

+5 NYM

+2 SDP

+2 TBR

+2 NYY

+2 OAK

+1 LAD

0 CWS

0 Cubs

-2 SFG

-2 WSH

-3 MIL

-4 HOU

-5 TOR

-6 ATL

-11 MIA

Edited July 2, 2021 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

He's hitting 382/469/655 with Worcester. Why would you say that?

 

He does have a ridiculous .514 BABIP.

[Nick]

Not to get sentimental here but.....

 

I came to this country in July of 1967. I didn't speak a word of English. But as an eleven year old, I played and loved baseball. Sadaharu Oh was my favorite and like 90% of baseball fans in Japan, Yomiuri Giants were my favorite team.

 

Game of the Week on NBC was a must see TV. I could have easily been a Cardinals fan but... I thought the name Red Sox was too cool....Rico Petrocelli became my favorite player. I played shortstop.

 

As we approach July 4th, becoming a US Citizen was a very special day.

 

I love being here talking about the Red Sox.

 

Have a great weekend.

 

(I left around 12:30 am and arrived in San Franciso in the evening the day before....will I have cheated death by few hours?)

Edited July 2, 2021 by Nick

[Kimmi]

Halfway through the season the Seattle Mariners have a better record than the New York Yankees ... playing in a tougher division.

 

The Seattle Mariners have been extremely lucky, wouldn't you say?

 

I only point that out because of the 'tougher division' comment.

[kenmeister]

Current Sox Players by GM Acquisition

 

Theo (2003-2011)

(Pedey)

Vazquez

Barnes

 

Ben (2012-2015)

ERod

DHern

Chavis

Bazardo

 

DD (2015-2019

Sale

JD

Eovaldi

Taylor

Houck

Brasier

Dalbec

Casas, Duran, Jimenez, Bello, Mata, A Ramirez, Song, Bonaci, C Murphy, Lugo, T Ward, Wilson, Groome, Howlett, Decker, Feltman

 

Bloom (2019-present)

Whitlock

Renfroe

Pivetta

Arroyo

Kike Hernandez

Sawamura

Marwin G

Cordero

Andriese

Valdez

Santana

Plawecki

Workman

Rios

Downs, Seabold, Yorke, Wong, Rosario, Jordan, Winckowski, F Valdez, Potts, Arauz, R Hernandez, Drohan, F German, G Gambrell, M Bleis, J Wu-Yellan, T Reed, K Ort

 

I'm confused. Where are Devers & Bogaerts?

[Kimmi]

This team has grit.

 

No studies can quantify that, and one can argue it is a trait that is unsustainable. Hell, I'd argue that point, too, in most cases, but this team just seems special.

 

It reminds me of 2013, and despite the fact that the 2013 Sox led the league in run differential, they were not viewed as the best team on paper.

 

IMO, a big factor is that the team has never let itself have a sustained low period. If I'm not mistaken, we're one of 3 teams that hasn't lost more than 3 in a row. They have a tough game or a tough series, and they're right back on it the next time out. Again, I think Cora is a huge factor in the way the team responds to adversity.

 

Call it grit, call it resiliency, call it whatever, the team is better than the sum of its parts.

 

It should also be mentioned that we have been very fortunate health wise.

[Kimmi]

Not to get sentimental here but.....

 

I came to this country in July of 1967. I didn't speak a word of English. But as an eleven year old, I played and loved baseball. Sadaharu Oh was my favorite and like 90% of baseball fans in Japan, Yomiuri Giants were my favorite team.

 

Game of the Week on NBC was a must see TV. I could have easily been a Cardinals fan but... I thought the name Red Sox was too cool....Rico Petrocelli became my favorite player. I played shortstop.

 

As we approach July 4th, becoming a US Citizen was a very special day.

 

I love being here talking about the Red Sox.

 

Have a great weekend.

 

(I left around 12:30 am and arrived in San Franciso in the evening the day before....will I have cheated death by few hours?)

 

Nice story Nick.

 

Have a wonderful 4th of July weekend!

[Kimmi]

I don't know if this was posted elsewhere, but it's time to give Eovaldi some love.

 

Red Sox Stats

@redsoxstats

 

Eovaldi has 3.2 WAR now, 4th in MLB behind deGrom, Wheeler, and Burnes. An estimated value for that WAR is $25.9 million.

 

If he's healthy, he's well worth his contract.

[mvp 78]

Jarren Duran will not be on the Olympics squad. The Sox wanted the option to call him up if need be and the logistics of adding him closer to the games would have been tough for the Olympic team due to visa requirements and other nonsense. Sox were ok with him going, but wanted the option to pull him back. USOC said no.

[moonslav59]

The Seattle Mariners have been extremely lucky, wouldn't you say?

 

I only point that out because of the 'tougher division' comment.

 

They have a -42 run differential, which ranks them 21st.

 

Their 43-39 record ranks them 12th, so yes, they are one of the luckiest teams in MLB.

[moonslav59]

Jarren Duran will not be on the Olympics squad. The Sox wanted the option to call him up if need be and the logistics of adding him closer to the games would have been tough for the Olympic team due to visa requirements and other nonsense. Sox were ok with him going, but wanted the option to pull him back. USOC said no.

 

Makes me think they must view Duran as being very very close to being "ML ready" as many here have felt he is. (Some feel he is past his ML ready date.)

[oldtimer]

Makes me think they must view Duran as being very very close to being "ML ready" as many here have felt he is. (Some feel he is past his ML ready date.)

 

This is certainly a new development as it has looked like the Sox were holding off on Duran because of the Olympics. It would be reasonable for the Sox to add another left handed bat to their roster, and his blazing speed would also be a plus. I doubt if they intend to add him prior to the all star break as 6 of the remaining games are on the West coast.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know if this was posted elsewhere, but it's time to give Eovaldi some love.

 

Red Sox Stats

@redsoxstats

 

Eovaldi has 3.2 WAR now, 4th in MLB behind deGrom, Wheeler, and Burnes. An estimated value for that WAR is $25.9 million.

 

If he's healthy, he's well worth his contract.

 

Thanks Dave!

[notin]

Add Verdugo, Downs and Wong to Bloom’s list…

[oldtimer]

We are now approaching the trade deadline (jul 30th) and I wonder what if any action the Sox may take. Some of the factors involve may include:

 

1. Exceeding CBT limits

2. Clearing space on the 40 man roster

3. Who are the Sox willing to lose?

4. Is the Sox management thinking they can be a real contender this year?

 

1. If the Sox are unwilling to exceed the CBT, going after starting pitching or people like Starling Marte are probably off the table.

2. Clearing space on the 40 man to add trade assets or players like Duran means trading or dropping others. Some of the potential names in my view are Santana, Rosario, Cordero, Potts, Chavis, Arauz, Workman and Andriese.

3. I listed some assets from the 40 man the Sox might be willing to lose in trades. Are there others not on the 40 man?

4.. It's hard to read if the Sox management believes they have a shot to go all the way this year. So far, management actions have been subdued. The trade deadline should provide a clearer indication.

[harmony]

The Seattle Mariners have been extremely lucky, wouldn't you say?

 

I only point that out because of the 'tougher division' comment.

With a negative 42 run differential the Seattle Mariners have a Pythagorean record of 37-45 (Pythagorean hurts the Yankees as well with a 40-40 record). The Mariners are 12-6 against the AL East.

 

AL East teams have improved to 47-56 in head-to-head competition against the AL West (after recently being 10+ games below .500).

 

The AL East drew the easier interleague matchup this year with a 36-19 record against the NL East while the AL West is 22-33 against the loaded NL West

[Maxbialystock]

Not to get sentimental here but.....

 

I came to this country in July of 1967. I didn't speak a word of English. But as an eleven year old, I played and loved baseball. Sadaharu Oh was my favorite and like 90% of baseball fans in Japan, Yomiuri Giants were my favorite team.

 

Game of the Week on NBC was a must see TV. I could have easily been a Cardinals fan but... I thought the name Red Sox was too cool....Rico Petrocelli became my favorite player. I played shortstop.

 

As we approach July 4th, becoming a US Citizen was a very special day.

 

I love being here talking about the Red Sox.

 

Have a great weekend.

 

(I left around 12:30 am and arrived in San Franciso in the evening the day before....will I have cheated death by few hours?)

 

Two things always amaze me about the Japanese. To me they are culturally very, very different from us--vastly different traditions, far more homogenous, etc. Yet somehow baseball caught on in Japan, not because of World War II, but because it was introduced way back in 1872. I'm pretty sure that happened in no other country in the world. The second is their remarkable ability to adapt to American society and politics.

 

We are lucky to have you as a citizen but I'm not so sure we are deserving. We claim to be the world's oldest democracy (going back to 1787), but I recently read we are really one of the newer democracies because of withholding the franchise--being allowed and even encouraged to vote--from too many of our citizens until roughly 1960. Newer means more fragile. Thus Jan 6, 2021.

[moonslav59]

I'm confused. Where are Devers & Bogaerts?

 

I was in a hurry and forgot a couple minor additions!

[moonslav59]

My feeling on Devers remains that we leave him alone. Don't do anything that might possibly mess with his mind or his confidence. I'm not just talking about this year, but next year and beyond as well. He's more than fine at 3B.

 

I’m not sure much can mess with his mind, but he sure has played good D recently.

[Nick]

This is certainly a new development as it has looked like the Sox were holding off on Duran because of the Olympics. It would be reasonable for the Sox to add another left handed bat to their roster, and his blazing speed would also be a plus. I doubt if they intend to add him prior to the all star break as 6 of the remaining games are on the West coast.

 

It would be reasonable for the Sox to add another left handed bat to their roster, and his blazing speed would also be a plus

 

That is all I'm saying.....make the roster little stronger....Hey he may not work out but at least give it a chance...