A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

"Kids, you know how you asked Santa for that one really big present, but you got something that wasn't as great? That's what happened when the Red Sox traded Mookie Betts."

 

Now this would be educational, a lesson in how you don't always get what you want and have to learn how to deal with it.

[Hugh2]

Now this would be educational, a lesson in how you don't always get what you want and have to learn how to deal with it.

 

Sometimes is better to get the accord for for years than just to be able to drive the Porsche for a week.

[Larry Cook]

Sometimes is better to get the accord for for years than just to be able to drive the Porsche for a week.

 

Is the Porsche a 911? If so, then I am dumping the accord!

[Bellhorn04]

I think I am done trying to analyze baseball. It's so freaking random from one series to the next, one game to the next.

[moonslav59]

I think I am done trying to analyze baseball. It's so freaking random from one series to the next, one game to the next.

 

Betting on baseball has to be one of the most absurd things to do.

[notin]

Now this would be educational, a lesson in how you don't always get what you want and have to learn how to deal with it.

 

Or as the great philosopher Mick Jagger once said “You can’t always get what you want. But if you try sometime, well, you might find, you want to paint it black.”

 

Or something like that.

[mvp 78]

It’s been long thought that Downs moves to 2B. He’s not blocked, if he can hit he will do well. Good defense, runs the bases well too.

 

I can’t fully explain why they wait to move guys, but it’s not abnormal for them to be keeping him at SS. They probably think he can easily make the transition to 2nd easily so why decrease his value?

 

I actually agree he could be traded, but I don’t necessarily think he’s blocked.

 

Downs is not blocked. Downs is not ready. Downs just dropped 10 spots on the latest Top 100 list.

[mvp 78]

Or as the great philosopher Mick Jagger once said “You can’t always get what you want. But if you try sometime, well, you might find, you want to paint it black.”

 

Or something like that.

 

I prefer true philosophers:

 

Tip toe through the window

By the window, that is where I'll be

Come tip toe through the tulips with me

Tip toe from the garden

By the garden of a willow tree

And tip toe through the tulips with me

Knee deep in flowers we'll stray

We'll keep the showers away

And if I kiss you, in the garden

In the moonlight, will you pardon me?

And tip toe through the tulips with me

[notin]

Downs is not blocked. Downs is not ready. Downs just dropped 10 spots on the latest Top 100 list.

 

Downs also has a whopping 156 PA above A ball. Some teams like to let players develop in those developmental leagues...

[moonslav59]

Fast arrival is hardly even the norm for the best of the very best.

 

None of our prospects are even near that category.

[notin]

Fast arrival is hardly even the norm for the best of the very best.

 

None of our prospects are even near that category.

 

While true, it's not uncommon for us fans to want to see the seduction of potential over the struggling reality...

[moonslav59]

While true, it's not uncommon for us fans to want to see the seduction of potential over the struggling reality...

 

I get it.

 

I often wonder, if it's worth a shot, too.

 

As a teen, I sometimes wondered why Dwight Evans was called up at an earlier age than Lynn and Rice. I wondered what 1974 might have looked like had we called the two up and traded away Tommy Harper and Juan Beniquez (not Bernie Carbo) for pitching.

[oldtimer]

I get it.

 

I often wonder, if it's worth a shot, too.

 

As a teen, I sometimes wondered why Dwight Evans was called up at an earlier age than Lynn and Rice. I wondered what 1974 might have looked like had we called the two up and traded away Tommy Harper and Juan Beniquez (not Bernie Carbo) for pitching.

 

Hard to believe our best prospects would do worse than Santana and Dalbec. When something is broken, thats the time to try to fix it.

[iortiz]

I think I am done trying to analyze baseball. It's so freaking random from one series to the next, one game to the next.

 

... have you ever tried soccer? LOL! It is literally randomness, Not kidding.

 

At least in baseball you only have 2 choices, W/L.

 

In soccer you have 3. W/T/L.

[moonslav59]

Good to see the Rays lose to a losing team, although it took extra innings.

 

The Sox have a 100 games to go. That's a little over 60% of the season left to play. We all knew the month of June's schedule was challenging, and July's is not much easier. Sweeping the Yanks was great, but now we are streaking in the wrong direction, again.

 

It seems like we should expect it. This team was built to maybe contend for a WC slot as we bridged our way to an almost brand new roster by 2022 and 2023.

 

The farm has been greatly improved- much more quickly than this poster imagined. Yes, it took trading Betts and some short term contracts at least year's deadline, but we have come a long way and now look at a high position in every round of the upcoming draft.

 

The 40 man roster depth reached new lows, last summer, but now, instead of 14-16 names of players that could be DFA'd and nobody would blink an eye, we have 4-6. We have that many rule 5 players to protect, next winter, so the roster depth improvement should be very significant.

 

The final piece is free agency. While nobody knows the spending limits that will be placed on Bloom, this coming winter, it's not a stretch to think he may be given the green light to surpass the tax line and maybe even nudge up close to the $20M second line. That would give Bloom an enormous winter wallet, and only a few roster spots to fill and replace our own free agents-to-be. Maybe, we even will have to make a 3 for 1 deal to make room for some of these free agents, a far cry from the 1 for 5 Beni deal.

 

Some of our own free agents will be very difficult to replace, but we have looked pretty good, despite having Sale on the IL and ERod struggling more often than not. This past winter, it looked like replacing ERod with someone better would be very hard. It doesn't really change the fact that we need another top SP'er, just because losing ERod does not look like such a big deal anymore, but it is a little encouraging to see our 3, 4 & 5 starters show a lot of promise for 2022.

 

Barnes will be hard to replace. Ottavino to a lesser extent. Marwin and Santana may end up being additions by subtractions, or at the very worst, easy to replace or re-sign.

 

The team option years on Richards, Perez and Vaz look like no-brainer, team friendly choices to make. Andriese's option may not be taken.

 

Whitlock, Renfroe, Kike and Sawamura will be back. JD has an opt out.

 

Some big questions remain, and we have some big needs in 2022. One good thing is that 3 of our biggest needs have near ML ready, top 100 prospects waiting in the wings:

 

CF: Duran

1B: Casas

2B: Downs

 

We may also get help from Houck, Seabold and others from the farm.

 

This leaves these big holes to be filled by FAs:

 

SP

Closer

Solid Set-up

 

2nd Tier:

OF

2B

1B

Pitching depth

C of the future

 

 

[moonslav59]

Hard to believe our best prospects would do worse than Santana and Dalbec. When something is broken, thats the time to try to fix it.

 

It's not just about who may or may not do marginally better or worse than Dalbec and Santana. There are many other factors involve. These are just a select few of them:

 

Super 2 cut off date for adding a year of team conrol

The need to fully know what Dalbec and Santana can do- beyond just a 120 PAs sample size

The readiness of the prospect to be thrust on the big stage

The need for the prospect to work out an important issue in their development on a more appropriate stage.

The Olympic commitments.

 

 

[oldtimer]

It's not just about who may or may not do marginally better or worse than Dalbec and Santana. There are many other factors involve. These are just a select few of them:

 

Super 2 cut off date for adding a year of team conrol

The need to fully know what Dalbec and Santana can do- beyond just a 120 PAs sample size

The readiness of the prospect to be thrust on the big stage

The need for the prospect to work out an important issue in their development on a more appropriate stage.

The Olympic commitments.

 

 

 

Interesting that you don't list the needs of the club. Losing games due to an obvious weakness rather than attempting to resolve them seems to be to be a dereliction of management responsibility.

 

I would say most fans on this site are well aware of the points you bring up.

 

1.The super 2 cutoff date can be monetized. How much is it worth to try to avoid losing more games?

2.It's the painful way that Dalbec and Santana have looked at the plate which should tell fans that they will not likely show up but instead continue to drag the team down.

3.There are a few prospects, some of which appear to be ready to be given a chance. Being ready means being superior to what we currently have in our lineup.

4.There are those, myself included, who believe they deserve a chance now. Is it money holding them back or management not wanting to give up on a guy they advocated for who isn't producing?

5. The Olympics are now a real issue as no doubt those chosen would like to get the chance to play for their country. Management though made them available.

[Bellhorn04]

Interesting that you don't list the needs of the club. Losing games due to an obvious weakness rather than attempting to resolve them seems to be to be a dereliction of management responsibility.

 

I would say most fans on this site are well aware of the points you bring up.

 

1.The super 2 cutoff date can be monetized. How much is it worth to try to avoid losing more games?

2.It's the painful way that Dalbec and Santana have looked at the plate which should tell fans that they will not likely show up but instead continue to drag the team down.

3.There are a few prospects, some of which appear to be ready to be given a chance. Being ready means being superior to what we currently have in our lineup.

4.There are those, myself included, who believe they deserve a chance now. Is it money holding them back or management not wanting to give up on a guy they advocated for who isn't producing?

5. The Olympics are now a real issue as no doubt those chosen would like to get the chance to play for their country. Management though made them available.

 

It's hard to tell a player is ready from his AAA stat line.

 

Franchy Cordero is hitting .435 for Worcester after hitting .179 for Boston.

 

Doesn't that say a lot right there? Like major league pitching is vastly better?

[Hugh2]

Interesting that you don't list the needs of the club. Losing games due to an obvious weakness rather than attempting to resolve them seems to be to be a dereliction of management responsibility.

 

I would say most fans on this site are well aware of the points you bring up.

 

1.The super 2 cutoff date can be monetized. How much is it worth to try to avoid losing more games?

2.It's the painful way that Dalbec and Santana have looked at the plate which should tell fans that they will not likely show up but instead continue to drag the team down.

3.There are a few prospects, some of which appear to be ready to be given a chance. Being ready means being superior to what we currently have in our lineup.

4.There are those, myself included, who believe they deserve a chance now. Is it money holding them back or management not wanting to give up on a guy they advocated for who isn't producing?

5. The Olympics are now a real issue as no doubt those chosen would like to get the chance to play for their country. Management though made them available.

 

I’d like to address 3-4, but a quick point about point #1.

 

Think of the back end. Think about the value of having an extra year of control when it comes to players who came up in our system such as Bogaerts, Betts, Devers, Lester, really anyone. In the long run I believe you extract more value, and it makes it easier to team build when you know you’re maximizing a players value when he’s playing for you in his prime.

[notin]

Interesting that you don't list the needs of the club. Losing games due to an obvious weakness rather than attempting to resolve them seems to be to be a dereliction of management responsibility.

 

I would say most fans on this site are well aware of the points you bring up.

 

 

3.There are a few prospects, some of which appear to be ready to be given a chance. Being ready means being superior to what we currently have in our lineup

 

A prospect’s readiness isn’t defined by the performance of other players. There is a massive grey area between “proven ability to contribute in MLB” and “potentially a lesser pile of dung than current starter.”

[notin]

It's hard to tell a player is ready from his AAA stat line.

 

Franchy Cordero is hitting .435 for Worcester after hitting .179 for Boston.

 

Doesn't that say a lot right there? Like major league pitching is vastly better?

 

And it’s quite possible Cordero gets another shot before Duran...

[mvp 78]

It's hard to tell a player is ready from his AAA stat line.

 

Franchy Cordero is hitting .435 for Worcester after hitting .179 for Boston.

 

Doesn't that say a lot right there? Like major league pitching is vastly better?

 

I wonder if it's in part to AAA guys being off for all of 2020 as well as Cordero just needing time to get comfortable.

[Elktonnick]

Betting on baseball has to be one of the most absurd things to do.

Back in the day they were bleacher creatures who did quite well betting on virtually every pitch. The guys who made money at it were the original sabermetricians. My uncle was one of them. He knew all the tendencies and splits of all the old Sox and Braves players.

[dgalehouse]

I think I am done trying to analyze baseball. It's so freaking random from one series to the next, one game to the next.

 

Every once in a while, you get a super team , an American Pharoah if you will, who goes wire to wire and just dominates the field. But mostly, what we are seeing now is the norm. The usual ebbs and flows , ups and downs of a long season.

[moonslav59]

Interesting that you don't list the needs of the club. Losing games due to an obvious weakness rather than attempting to resolve them seems to be to be a dereliction of management responsibility.

 

I would say most fans on this site are well aware of the points you bring up.

 

1.The super 2 cutoff date can be monetized. How much is it worth to try to avoid losing more games?

2.It's the painful way that Dalbec and Santana have looked at the plate which should tell fans that they will not likely show up but instead continue to drag the team down.

3.There are a few prospects, some of which appear to be ready to be given a chance. Being ready means being superior to what we currently have in our lineup.

4.There are those, myself included, who believe they deserve a chance now. Is it money holding them back or management not wanting to give up on a guy they advocated for who isn't producing?

5. The Olympics are now a real issue as no doubt those chosen would like to get the chance to play for their country. Management though made them available.

 

Not mentioning the needs of the club, does not mean I don't think the exist or don't have merit.

 

My response was geared towards some reasons why the club feels it's not the right time to call upplayers that may or may not even be better than the players they are replacing.

 

I'll attempt to answer your points, one-by-one.

 

Is gaining 1 more year of team control worth possibly (not a sure bet) losing more games? We need time to see what Dalbec, Cordero and others could do. That amount of time was about as long as it the super 2 date, so my answer is no way is it worth losing a year of team control over maybe a few days or a couple weeks more of a questionable replacement player.

 

Dalbec & Santana are dragging us down. Yes, they were and still are. I am for sending both to AAA, ASAP. I would not necessarily replace them both with Duran, Casas or Downs. I'd give Chavis another look, and leave whether a top prospect is ready or not to Bloom & Co. If they don't think any are ready, I don't want them called up. You know, they could do even worse or get hurt or lose confidence or hamper their progression.

 

Being ready means being superior to what we currently have? I could NOT disagree more. Plus, what are you basing the idea that any of these top 3 prospects are superior? Their tiny 2021 sample sizes? If you go by the AAA numbers, then Cordero should be called up. These guy's values are 100% speculative.

 

They deserve a chance now? The team control date has passed, so it's not about money or long term improvements. I am 100% sure it's not about anyone's egos concerning Dalbec and Santana. Dalbec isn't even Bloom's guy, and Santana was a minor league signing, not some big FA commitment. To me, it's about giving them both a significant chance to earn a FT slot. You can't find that out until they get a significant chance, which means more than 2 weeks, and to me, more than 100 PAs. Once they go 120 and fail, it's easy to look back and say, we should not have given Dalbec a long look. I'm sure glad we didn't give up on Renfroe after a few weeks.

 

Management making these players available for the Olympics? I say great on them! Besides, it's a good test for these kids to learn more about them actually being ML ready.

 

Look, if management calls up Duran, today, I'll be thrilled. In no way am I against calling anyone up once they are ML ready.

 

We don't know squat about what these kids need and are working on improving. I trust Bloom & Co. know what they are doing. Can they be off by a few days or weeks? Probably, but for all we know, they could be off by 2-3 weeks in the wrong direction and end up not helping the team or the prospect by calling them up too early. That is a possibility, you know.

 

If one goes by AAA performances, one could argue we sent Cordero down, too early- just before he was about to erupt and prove he belonged in the bigs. He we kept him in Boston, and he hit like he did in AAA, we'd all be saying we were glad they gave him a longer look, and we might have a few more wins, right now. (I'm ot saying Cordero would have hit well, but we don't know if Duran, Casas or Downs will or would have either- based on their AAA numbers, only.)

 

When these guys are ready and not playing in the Olympics, they'll be called up. It sucks they are not ready now, and or the Olympics are this summer, but that's the way it is. If every player hitting well in the minors for 4 weeks deserved a call-up, we'd be seeing dozens of young players being called up and flopping left and right every season.

 

[moonslav59]

I’d like to address 3-4, but a quick point about point #1.

 

Think of the back end. Think about the value of having an extra year of control when it comes to players who came up in our system such as Bogaerts, Betts, Devers, Lester, really anyone. In the long run I believe you extract more value, and it makes it easier to team build when you know you’re maximizing a players value when he’s playing for you in his prime.

 

I wish we had one more arb year for Devers.

[moonslav59]

And it’s quite possible Cordero gets another shot before Duran...

 

... or even, cough-cough... Marcus Wilson, Chavis or someone like Munoz, who is not even on the 40.

[mvp 78]

... or even, cough-cough... Marcus Wilson, Chavis or someone like Munoz, who is not even on the 40.

 

At first, there was some concern that his HR's were cheap, but now he's sitting at 8 and it's only 6/10. I agree that it would be interesting to give him a shot especially since he has a much better glove than Cordero.

[mvp 78]

Wilson has been around long enough where I still assume he's older than he actually is. He's less than a month older than Duran.

[moonslav59]

Wilson has been around long enough where I still assume he's older than he actually is. He's less than a month older than Duran.

 

My guess is Sox brass views him as ML ready. That might be the only factor at stake, here.

 

I'd assume giving Chavis another look (or two) would come before Wilson, and if we are sending Dalbec down, Chavis makes more sense.

 

Sending Santana packing is another story. Maybe Wilson would get the call to replace him.