A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

I just don't understand how you used different sample sizes to mean "recently" (54 PA vs 27 PA). Seems haphazard to me.

 

What does that matter?

 

They both have sucked, recently. I'm fine with giving people long looks, but Chavis deserves a long look, too, and his career and 2021 MLB numbers blow Dalbec's away.

 

If you want to hold his 2021 "recent" AAA numbers against him, that seems as arbitrary as my cherry-picking the worst cutoff points on the slumping Dalbec & Santana.

[mvp 78]

You're all over the map.

 

It's career MLB OPS for Dalbec, but AAA 2021 OPS for Chavis that counts?

 

Should how horribly he's played in AAA not count?

[mvp 78]

What does that matter?

 

They both have sucked, recently. I'm fine with giving people long looks, but Chavis deserves a long look, too, and his career and 2021 MLB numbers blow Dalbec's away.

 

If you want to hold his 2021 "recent" AAA numbers against him, that seems as arbitrary as my cherry-picking the worst cutoff points on the slumping Dalbec & Santana.

 

Recently, per your definition, Chavis has been absolutely horrible in AAA. Why would you bring him up to replace a struggling Dalbec or Santana?

[iortiz]

I still do not understand what does Duran has to do in MiLB to be called up. Does he need another 500 ABs or what? I was checking his stats and he is OPSing 974.

 

Also, He is not that young. He is 24 YO, I mean, these days a lot elite talent at 24 and even younger are at their prime.

 

What am I missing?

[moonslav59]

MLB Only

 

Dalbec

.717 Career (265 PAs)

.595 2021 (173 PAs)

.657 last 28 days (65)

.618 since May 8th (the day Chavis was called up)

 

Chavis

.730 career (573 PAs)

.758 2021 (33 PAs)

.667 last 28 days (24)

.758 since May 8 (his call up date in 2021)

[moonslav59]

Should how horribly he's played in AAA not count?

 

Yes, it counts, but the sample size is tint, and Dalbec needs a change of scenery- quick.

 

Why discount my most recent small sample sizes on Dalbec but us them against Chavis?

[moonslav59]

I still do not understand what does Duran has to do in MiLB to be called up. Does he need another 500 ABs or what? I was checking his stats and he is OPSing 974.

 

Also, He is not that young. He is 24 YO, I mean, these days a lot elite talent at 24 and even younger are at their prime.

 

What am I missing?

 

Several factors:

 

1. The super 2 team control rule (that date just recently passed)

2. The Olympic team commitment.

3. He just changed positions, recently and does not have that many games in CF under his belt. Reports are he is still learning the position.

4. Players like Cordero & Kike deserved long looks in the OF.

5. Not all .900+ hitters are sure bets to do well in the bigs, especially right off the ground running.

6. We don't know what Bloom & Co. know.

 

Why not trust they know more than we do?

 

Can they be wrong, at times? Sure. Either way: too early or too late.

[mvp 78]

I still do not understand what does Duran has to do in MiLB to be called up. Does he need another 500 ABs or what? I was checking his stats and he is OPSing 974.

 

Also, He is not that young. He is 24 YO, I mean, these days a lot elite talent at 24 and even younger are at their prime.

 

What am I missing?

 

With Duran, there are big questions as he has completely revamped his swing since 2019. Now that he's added a lot of power and higher k rate, he needs more in game action to determine if he's really ready. Also, his defense is a big work in progress.

[mvp 78]

MLB Only

 

Dalbec

.717 Career (265 PAs)

.595 2021 (173 PAs)

.657 last 28 days (65)

.618 since May 8th (the day Chavis was called up)

 

Chavis

.730 career (573 PAs)

.758 2021 (33 PAs)

.667 last 28 days (24)

.758 since May 8 (his call up date in 2021)

 

Seems like neither is a great option for starting 1b for a playoff contender?

[iortiz]

Regarding Chavis, the way I see it, the move would be only justified in order to help Dalbec to regain his form out of the spotlight. I'm Dalbec fan but he looks lost right now.

 

In the worst case scenario, Chavis will perform as bad as Dalbec but at the same time Dalbec might regain his form and clear his head in 2-3 weeks and be ready again.

 

Said that, Dalbec has way better upside than Chavis, that's out of question. Sending him to minors could help him to retake forces and achieve quicker that expected ceiling.

[Hugh2]

Regarding Chavis, the way I see it, the move would be only justified in order to help Dalbec to regain his form out of the spotlight. I'm Dalbec fan but he looks lost right now.

 

In the worst case scenario, Chavis will perform as bad as Dalbec but at the same time Dalbec might regain his form and clear his head in 2-3 weeks and be ready again.

 

Said that, Dalbec has way better upside than Chavis, that's out of question. Sending him to minors could help him to retake forces and achieve quicker that expected ceiling.

 

If you break Dalbecs season down into 2 week chunks he's been relatively consistent at being hot/cold. If he can turn the cold down just a little bit or shorten how long he goes cold for he will be fine.

[iortiz]

Several factors:

 

1. The super 2 team control rule (that date just recently passed)

2. The Olympic team commitment.

3. He just changed positions, recently and does not have that many games in CF under his belt. Reports are he is still learning the position.

4. Players like Cordero & Kike deserved long looks in the OF.

5. Not all .900+ hitters are sure bets to do well in the bigs, especially right off the ground running.

6. We don't know what Bloom & Co. know.

 

Why not trust they know more than we do?

 

Can they be wrong, at times? Sure. Either way: too early or too late.

 

With Duran, there are big questions as he has completely revamped his swing since 2019. Now that he's added a lot of power and higher k rate, he needs more in game action to determine if he's really ready. Also, his defense is a big work in progress.

 

I see.

 

Hopefully we see him sooner that later. Would be nice to round this team with that bat.

[iortiz]

If you break Dalbecs season down into 2 week chunks he's been relatively consistent at being hot/cold. If he can turn the cold down just a little bit or shorten how long he goes cold for he will be fine.

 

 

I'm starting to think this is a mental issue. He splashed in ST and now his bat is dead. Probably he is going through a lot of pressure. IDK. People are expecting he is our future 1B. He is not showing that. As I said probably there's a lot of load on his shoulders. Minors could help him to regain his form and most important to clear his head.

 

Just my two cents.

Edited June 9, 2021 by iortiz

[Hugh2]

I'm starting to think this is a mental issue. He splashed in ST and now his bat is dead. Probably he is going through a lot of pressure. IDK. People expecting he is our future 1B. He is not showing that. As I said probably there's a lot of load on his shoulders. Minors could help him to regain his form and most important to clear his head.

 

Just my two cents.

 

Minors could help, but maybe not, I think this is just who he is. I believe he's going to be a streaky hitter, he will go on a tear or two and have some better seasons in his prime but he might not have the consistency that is demanded from a first-division team like Boston. With Casas coming up behind him and Devers solidifying 3B I have to believe he's trade bait.

[notin]

I still do not understand what does Duran has to do in MiLB to be called up. Does he need another 500 ABs or what? I was checking his stats and he is OPSing 974.

 

Also, He is not that young. He is 24 YO, I mean, these days a lot elite talent at 24 and even younger are at their prime.

 

What am I missing?

 

I think the big problem with Duran is he has only 88 PA this year and only 188 in the past two years. He struggled in AA in 2019 and the Sox wasn’t to see how real he is. Franchy Cordero has an OPS .300 points higher on the same team and with only 40 fewer PA, but no one is clamoring for his return...

[notin]

Minors could help, but maybe not, I think this is just who he is. I believe he's going to be a streaky hitter, he will go on a tear or two and have some better seasons in his prime but he might not have the consistency that is demanded from a first-division team like Boston. With Casas coming up behind him and Devers solidifying 3B I have to believe he's trade bait.

 

So Bobby Dalbec is a right-handed Brian Daubach?

 

I am so thankful those two careers didn’t overlap, as that could make for the most confusing platoon in MLB history...

[iortiz]

Minors could help, but maybe not, I think this is just who he is. I believe he's going to be a streaky hitter, he will go on a tear or two and have some better seasons in his prime but he might not have the consistency that is demanded from a first-division team like Boston. With Casas coming up behind him and Devers solidifying 3B I have to believe he's trade bait.

 

Probably you are right. I bet Cora and coaches are all hands on this issue. Let's see what they do. Won't take long if Dalbec keeps performing like this.

[mvp 78]

if you break dalbecs season down into 2 week chunks he's been relatively consistent at being hot/cold. If he can turn the cold down just a little bit or shorten how long he goes cold for he will be fine.

 

jbj 2.0

[mvp 78]

So Bobby Dalbec is a right-handed Brian Daubach?

 

I am so thankful those two careers didn’t overlap, as that could make for the most confusing platoon in MLB history...

 

Yes, last year I couldn't stop calling him Brian Dalbec.

[iortiz]

I think the big problem with Duran is he has only 88 PA this year and only 188 in the past two years. He struggled in AA in 2019 and the Sox wasn’t to see how real he is. Franchy Cordero has an OPS .300 points higher on the same team and with only 40 fewer PA, but no one is clamoring for his return...

 

So Franchy is doing well in minors? Probably he just needed to go to minors to retake forces. I'm not done on Franchy if he shows he can hit in minors. He probably will have another chance if he keeps hitting down there.

[mvp 78]

So Franchy is doing well in minors? Probably he just needed to go to minors to retake forces. I'm not done on Franchy if he shows he can hit in minors. He probably will have another chance if he keeps hitting down there.

 

He just needs consistent AB's and to regain confidence. Maybe he never finds success at MLB level, but I think he needs to be given a month or two in AAA before he comes back.

[moonslav59]

Seems like neither is a great option for starting 1b for a playoff contender?

 

No, but I'd like to see Chavis get at least one more long look, this year, and maybe we can decide, once and for all, if he deserves a 40 man roster spot, this winter and in 2022. I hate leaving these borderline players in limbo- never knowing one way or the other.

 

If we can pick up a better 1Bman without losing anyone too promising, bring him on!

[Hugh2]

Probably you are right. I bet Cora and coaches are all hands on this issue. Let's see what they do. Won't take long if Dalbec keeps performing like this.

 

Yeah, playing above expectations creates a whole new set of problems, better than sucking though. I do think the team thought this would be a bridge year, and they'd have a full season to see if guys like Franchy and Dalbec could put it together. Two guys with middle-of-the-order potential.

 

The reality is, you can only wait so long on this guys, can't get attached and have to move on. I'm not closing the book on them yet, but at some point you got to plug in the hole.

[Nick]

Very good article on Josh Winckowski in MassLive (subscription only). Interesting point about him changing his attitude going from pacing himself throwing fastball to throw as hard as he can mentally. He initially did it just to see how fast he can throw. He's touching 97 now and thinks he can go 7 innings maxing out on his fastball. He's also all about attacking the strike zone, so we have another pitcher that's not nibbling outside the zone. That's good news.

 

He also worked out to build his body last year due to not having a baseball season. It's interesting you hear many athletes having done so during COVID. For pitchers like him, it may end of being more beneficial having taken the year off.

 

It's not the year of the car, it's how many miles you have on it.

 

I say we got rid of Beni to purchase Renfroe. And we got some lottery tickets in return. If you don't play, you can't win.

Edited June 9, 2021 by Nick

[mvp 78]

Hard to be upset with the results of the Beni trade. If they were going to trade him, not sure they could have received a better package. Sure, Beni will have more WAR this year, but Sox have several guys locked up for years and years. If just one of them turns out to be a consistent 2 WAR player, it's a win.

[a700hitter]

Hard to be upset with the results of the Beni trade. If they were going to trade him, not sure they could have received a better package. Sure, Beni will have more WAR this year, but Sox have several guys locked up for years and years. If just one of them turns out to be a consistent 2 WAR player, it's a win.

Throw enough teenagers at the wall and hope one of them sticks. If not, the time horizon is so long that no one will remember.

[oldtimer]

Yeah, playing above expectations creates a whole new set of problems, better than sucking though. I do think the team thought this would be a bridge year, and they'd have a full season to see if guys like Franchy and Dalbec could put it together. Two guys with middle-of-the-order potential.

 

The reality is, you can only wait so long on this guys, can't get attached and have to move on. I'm not closing the book on them yet, but at some point you got to plug in the hole.

 

I tend to believe what I see and that is Dalbec is totally lost at the plate and has shown no signs of improving. I admit to being impatient to try someone different instead of letting his poor offense hurt the team's record. Of course Cora and Bloom know more about the options than we do. Eventually though, they will try something else. Pick up a guy? Use Chavis? I think Casas would make sense except that he is committed to the Olympics through mid August. Cmon guys, do something.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, last year I couldn't stop calling him Brian Dalbec.

 

Not sure how anyone could confuse the two. Dalbec is good-looking. Daubach is somewhere between homely and fugly.

[Hugh2]

I tend to believe what I see and that is Dalbec is totally lost at the plate and has shown no signs of improving. I admit to being impatient to try someone different instead of letting his poor offense hurt the team's record. Of course Cora and Bloom know more about the options than we do. Eventually though, they will try something else. Pick up a guy? Use Chavis? I think Casas would make sense except that he is committed to the Olympics through mid August. Cmon guys, do something.

 

No way they bring Casa up. He has a month in AA after skipping high A. If he went to college he’d be in this years draft.

[notin]

Hard to be upset with the results of the Beni trade. If they were going to trade him, not sure they could have received a better package. Sure, Beni will have more WAR this year, but Sox have several guys locked up for years and years. If just one of them turns out to be a consistent 2 WAR player, it's a win.

 

Coming off his sub-.500 OPS season, it’s not like he was “sell high” material...