A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Guess we don't need to play the season since Fan Graphs has it all decided up front.

 

-Their guesses are as good as ours.

-If anyone could predict sports results with consistent accuracy, they'd be filthy rich.

[moonslav59]

Guess we don't need to play the season since Fan Graphs has it all decided up front.

 

LOL.

 

I don't really disagree, too much, with any of their projections, except I think they have the Yankee catcher score a bit too high.

 

I also think our 1B will do better than 18th. I like Dalbec.

 

I also think 2B and RF (with Verdugo there more often) will do better than fangraphs projects.

 

LF & CF are the real wild cards.

[gojohn99]

I think this 2021 edition is a .500 team give or take a few games. Maybe 84-78.

 

 

According to fangraphs, here are how they rate the top SP'ers in 2021 Projections:

 

Best aces:

6.3 deGrom

5.5 Cole

5.2 Bieber

4.8 Scherzer

4.4 Bauer

4.2 Bueler, Castillo, Giolito, Nola, Darvish

4.0 Strasburg

 

Teams with 2 pitchers over 4.0: Nats & LAD

 

Teams with most pitchers over 3.0:

3: SDP, LAD, WSK

2: CIN, CWS, PHI

 

Teams with most pitchers over 2.5:

4 SDP

3 LAD, WSH, CWS

2 NYY, NYM, CIN, ATL, MIL, TOR, MN, SEA, HOU

 

Teams with most pitchers over 2.0:

5 SDP

4 NYM

3 LAD, NYY, WSH, CIN, CWS, ATL, PHI, MN, OAK

 

Teams with the most over 1.5:

5 SDP, NYY, STL

4 LAD, NYM, ATL, MN, SEA, OAK, SFG, MIA, KCR

3 WSH, CIN, CWS, MIL, PHI, TOR, LAA, HOU, AZ

 

Teams with the most over 1.0

7 NYY

6 SDP, LAD, NYM, MIL, LAA

5 CIN, NYM, TOR, MN, STL, HOU, TEX, MIA, KCR, AZ, COL

4 CWS, SEA, BOS, CLE, OAK, TBR, SFG, DET, Cubs, PIT

 

(Only the O's make no list. Meany at 1.7 and 2 guys at 0.9.)

[moonslav59]

I think this 2021 edition is a .500 team give or take a few games. Maybe 84-78.

 

Sounds about right.

 

If we stay relatively healthy, maybe 82-88 wins. If we do that and things line up well, maybe 84-90.

 

I could also see some things going wrong and ending up with 74-80 wins.

[Elktonnick]

Sounds about right.

 

If we stay relatively healthy, maybe 82-88 wins. If we do that and things line up well, maybe 84-90.

 

I could also see some things going wrong and ending up with 74-80 wins.

 

I am with you. I see it about the same. I must admit I think the Yankees will have another disappointing year. I see them as potentially having a greater problem with injuries than the Red Sox. They are physically big and I think that may prove problematic health wise.

[notin]

I am with you. I see it about the same. I must admit I think the Yankees will have another disappointing year. I see them as potentially having a greater problem with injuries than the Red Sox. They are physically big and I think that may prove problematic health wise.

 

It does seem odd that a team with annual injury issues would decide to make their big offseason additions to be Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon. This was a team that needed Rick Porcello. Sure, he lacks the sexy name of someone like Kluber, but he will show up for work every day guaranteed while Kluber and Taillon sit on the bench nursing their sore scouting reports...

[Bellhorn04]

I am with you. I see it about the same. I must admit I think the Yankees will have another disappointing year. I see them as potentially having a greater problem with injuries than the Red Sox. They are physically big and I think that may prove problematic health wise.

 

I have also noticed that Cashman seems to have a thing for physical hulks.

[moonslav59]

I am with you. I see it about the same. I must admit I think the Yankees will have another disappointing year. I see them as potentially having a greater problem with injuries than the Red Sox. They are physically big and I think that may prove problematic health wise.

 

They've had tons of injuries the last two year and then signed guys like Kluber & trade for Taiilon.

 

You'd think they'd go after iron men.

 

They already have players under the knife, on the IL or sitting out a few games to start the year.

[moonslav59]

It does seem odd that a team with annual injury issues would decide to make their big offseason additions to be Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon. This was a team that needed Rick Porcello. Sure, he lacks the sexy name of someone like Kluber, but he will show up for work every day guaranteed while Kluber and Taillon sit on the bench nursing their sore scouting reports...

 

I just read this after posting my similar post.

[moonslav59]

I have also noticed that Cashman seems to have a thing for physical hulks.

 

The bigger they are the easier they fall.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They've had tons of injuries the last two year and then signed guys like Kluber & trade for Taiilon.

 

You'd think they'd go after iron men.

 

They already have players under the knife, on the IL or sitting out a few games to start the year.

 

EVERYONE in the industry is picking the Yanks to win the AL in a runaway. I might agree, except they have more IFs than the past three years combined, when they were also favorites with "the greatest HR power and best bullpen of all-time". They lost HR champ Voit and lefty set-up Britton. And replaced their #2, 3 and 4 starters? If George was alive, would he really let Snell and Darvish go to the Pads?

 

MLB.com has a few writers who love NY -- this past week, they rated the Yanks the MLB's third-best rotation (behind LA and SD), best offense and most improved team (Jay Bruce > Gardner?). These are also the same guys who called Sanchez the All-Star catcher because he hits longballs. Can they win it all with mediocre to bad D at C and SS? Maybe, but if they don't, watch them open the wallets for at least a star free agent shortstop next winter (and move Gleybar and/or DJ back to the corners).

[Bellhorn04]

EVERYONE in the industry is picking the Yanks to win the AL in a runaway. I might agree, except they have more IFs than the past three years combined, when they were also favorites with "the greatest HR power and best bullpen of all-time". They lost HR champ Voit and lefty set-up Britton. And replaced their #2, 3 and 4 starters? If George was alive, would he really let Snell and Darvish go to the Pads?

 

MLB.com has a few writers who love NY -- this past week, they rated the Yanks the MLB's third-best rotation (behind LA and SD), best offense and most improved team (Jay Bruce > Gardner?). These are also the same guys who called Sanchez the All-Star catcher because he hits longballs. Can they win it all with mediocre to bad D at C and SS? Maybe, but if they don't, watch them open the wallets for at least a star free agent shortstop next winter (and move Gleybar and/or DJ back to the corners).

 

I think the Jays have an excellent shot at finishing ahead of the Yanks.

[moonslav59]

I think the Jays have an excellent shot at finishing ahead of the Yanks.

 

They finished one back, last year and improved by more than the Yanks did, and I'm not even sure the Yanks improved.

 

The Rays trading away their 2 aces is the only reason the Yanks are favorites in the AL East.

 

I do think they are the faves but not by much.

[notin]

I have also noticed that Cashman seems to have a thing for physical hulks.

 

That's because a while back, he inadvertantly ordered only XXXL sized jerseys...

[Nick]

That's because a while back, he inadvertantly ordered only XXXL sized jerseys...

 

.........while Kluber and Taillon sit on the bench nursing their sore scouting reports..

 

 

That's really good....

 

Back in late 60's, my favorite day of the week was Thursday. That's when our local drug store had the new edition of Sporting News. It was either 25 or 50 cents at the time. I'd read cover to cover. The paper would have publication by columnists from several major cities....some had great writing style....

[Bellhorn04]

.........while Kluber and Taillon sit on the bench nursing their sore scouting reports..

 

 

That's really good....

 

Back in late 60's, my favorite day of the week was Thursday. That's when our local drug store had the new edition of Sporting News. It was either 25 or 50 cents at the time. I'd read cover to cover. The paper would have publication by columnists from several major cities....some had great writing style....

 

Sporting News was awesome.

 

Baseball Digest was pretty cool as well.

[moonslav59]

Sporting News was awesome.

 

Baseball Digest was pretty cool as well.

 

I remember getting both. Loved 'em.

[notin]

.........while Kluber and Taillon sit on the bench nursing their sore scouting reports..

 

 

That's really good....

 

Back in late 60's, my favorite day of the week was Thursday. That's when our local drug store had the new edition of Sporting News. It was either 25 or 50 cents at the time. I'd read cover to cover. The paper would have publication by columnists from several major cities....some had great writing style....

 

I think the best Sporting News columnist ever was former Red Sox RHRP Todd Jones, who retired from MLB and took the job. He then got an offer from the Tigers to return to MLB, and he decided to keep the Sporting News gig and write columns while playing. While I often envision most MLB players as having insurmountable egos, if Jones was anything like he portrayed himself in his columns, he was remarkably humble. One of my favorites was a story he did about bringing his son to the clubhouse, and how his son was so excited to meet all these Major League ballplayers, but was completely unfazed about his own dad...

[notin]

Sporting News was awesome.

 

Baseball Digest was pretty cool as well.

 

I am still a subscriber to Baseball Digest. Yes, it still exists. But it uses 8 1/2" x 11" pages now...

[dgalehouse]

Back in the day , The Sporting News was all baseball . No other sports . And they had extensive minor league coverage . The Internet has pretty much killed the magazine industry.

[dgalehouse]

On paper , the Yankees clearly have the most talented team. The Jays might be a tad overrated. As for the Sox ; we could not ask for a better beginning. Opening Day at home versus possibly the worst team in MLB. A good start is important to generate confidence and fan interest.

[moonslav59]

On paper , the Yankees clearly have the most talented team. The Jays might be a tad overrated. As for the Sox ; we could not ask for a better beginning. Opening Day at home versus possibly the worst team in MLB. A good start is important to generate confidence and fan interest.

 

I do think the Yanks have the best team on paper in the AL East, but they finished 1 ahead of Toronto, and the Jays easily won the offseason.

 

Jays +

Springer

Semien

R Ray

S Matz

K Yates

Chatwood

D Phelps

 

Jays -

T Walker

T Shaw

C Anderson

J Villar

K Giles

S Yamaguchi

M Shoemaker

A Bass

C Joseph

 

The Jays clearly got much better.

 

 

 

Yankee +

Kluber

Taillon

J Wilson

D O'Day

J Bruce (minor league)

R Chirnos (ml)

A Warren (ml)

 

The talk of "Yankee improvement" is based largely on untested or low experience young players and players coming back from serious injuries. Not counting young player contributions, it looks like a wash to me from 2020 to 2021 in outside additions and subtractions for the Yanks.

 

Yankee -

Tanaka

Paxton

Happ

Ottavino

F German

[dgalehouse]

I don't know if they were counting on Yates to be the closer , but he is out for the year. All in all , they have some good , young talent , but just don't have the star power that the Yankees do.

[mvp 78]

I don't know if they were counting on Yates to be the closer , but he is out for the year. All in all , they have some good , young talent , but just don't have the star power that the Yankees do.

 

And Ray pulled a Buchholz.

 

Springer and Semien should help, but I'm not a fan of that rotation outside of Ryu.

[moonslav59]

I was just noting additions and subtractions for two teams that were nearly tied, last year.

 

I agree: the Yanks look better on paper- assuming good health.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

The Red Sox and right-handed reliever Matt Barnes discussed a contract extension during the spring, but there’s little optimism about a deal coming together, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes. That leaves the 30-year-old on track to reach free agency next winter, and in the meantime, he’ll earn $4.5MM this season. The hard-throwing Barnes, a career-long member of the Red Sox, has pitched to a 4.08 ERA with a 29.9 percent strikeout rate in 337 1/3 innings since debuting in 2014. He amassed 60-plus innings in each season from 2016-19.

[kenmeister]

E-Rod officially on the DL. Sigh.

[mvp 78]

E-Rod officially on the DL. Sigh.

 

We've known about this for a while now. He's pitching a simulated game today. If it goes well, he'll start next week.

[moonslav59]

E-Rod officially on the DL. Sigh.

 

Is it retroactive to a certain date?

[mvp 78]

Is it retroactive to a certain date?

 

Retro to 3/29. Can come off in time for 4/8 game.