A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[notin]

Let me get this straight.

 

Chris Sale started 4 spring training games and pitched total of 14 innings, striking out 19 right before he signed his extension.

 

So, Sox management had injured pitcher pitch 4 meaningless spring training games? On top of that, they figured he was just fine and gave him $245M for five years?

 

Come on, be precise. OP stated that he was 'hurt' when we extended him. You stand by that, Doctor? Or did he get hurt after he signed? Or maybe it's an ailment that is difficult to diagnose? That I would understand.

 

So with an equal amount of inside info, you're claiming Sale was healthy and the evidence is 14 spring training innigs?

 

Some facts:

 

1) He was shut down due to injury concerns in 2018.

2) IN 2019, he made his fewest starts and threw the fewest IP in his career since becoming an MLB starting pitcher.

3) He missed 2020 and is out for the bulk of 2021.

4) He spent the first 6 years of his career on one of the most underpaid contracts in MLB history, and the extension he signed was absolutely far less than he would have gotten as a free agent. The deal he did sign was for roughly the same money as Partick Corbin received that same off-season. And while Corbin is good, his career in no way equals Sale's.

 

What appeared to happen to me is Sale knew he was having some issues and figured trying to pitch an entire season would cost him money by raising more health questions. So he played it safe and took the extension...

[notin]

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/4/6/15186624/chris-sales-velocity-experiment-fastball-red-sox-mlb

 

He has a history of not always throwing as hard as physically possible. Maybe we can't attribute the change in velo entirely due to health.

 

No idea. But he clearly can be effective at the 2019 velocity...

[Nick]

What makes you think he had no physicals, or that they had no idea about his health status.

 

The reason he signed for less than Scherzer was his health. It was known on both sides, and we rolled the dice.

 

BTW, the jury is still out.

 

Come on Moon....I'm being sarcastic

 

Original Poster said WE GAVE A $245M CONTRACT TO INJURED PLAYER. I'm asking for a proof. I don't like posters making a claim that I don't think is true. He pitched in 4 spring training games prior to his signing on 3/29/19.

 

Do you have evidence that he was a injured player on 3/29/19? If you don't, we shouldn't speculate. I'm trying to refute the claim. It seems implausible that he didn't have a physical. So did we miss it? Or more likely he hurt himself later. In which case to say that we gave $245M to injured player is false.

[Nick]

So with an equal amount of inside info, you're claiming Sale was healthy and the evidence is 14 spring training innigs?

 

Some facts:

 

1) He was shut down due to injury concerns in 2018.

2) IN 2019, he made his fewest starts and threw the fewest IP in his career since becoming an MLB starting pitcher.

3) He missed 2020 and is out for the bulk of 2021.

4) He spent the first 6 years of his career on one of the most underpaid contracts in MLB history, and the extension he signed was absolutely far less than he would have gotten as a free agent. The deal he did sign was for roughly the same money as Partick Corbin received that same off-season. And while Corbin is good, his career in no way equals Sale's.

 

What appeared to happen to me is Sale knew he was having some issues and figured trying to pitch an entire season would cost him money by raising more health questions. So he played it safe and took the extension...

 

I don't care what Sale thought.......

 

I'm concerned that your claim that he was injured prior to 3/29/19 and despite that and the physicals which more than likely were given than not, Sox signed him to a $245M contract. It doesn't seem good business practice.

[moonslav59]

You keep showing “data” that shows a drop yet you rationalize it by saying it was within career norms. I’m telling you that he saw a velo increase prior to his injury and when he returned, his velo was down.

 

Avg fastball

2017 94.4

2018 94.7

2019 93.2

 

And the kicker here was the playoffs in 2018. When he came back and threw in the POs, he was throwing low velo, just came back from a shoulder ailment and then they lavished a contract on him.

 

Also, fangraphs disagrees with you too

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chris-sale-has-hit-another-bump-in-the-road/

 

My point was about his velocity being about the same as 2021-2017, a time period where he was extremely successful.

 

He doesn't have to be at 2018 velocity to be a stud pitcher. His 2019 velocity was nearly identical to his average velocity from 2012-2016 and just 1 below 2017.

 

I'm not sure why you think the 2018 playoffs were "the kicker." Usually, when pitchers just come back from being out, their velocity is low for a short sample size.

 

Look, I have never argued he wasn't hurt.In fact, I have argued he signed a discount deal precisely because bot sides knew he was hurt and the risk was there for further injury or diminished productivity. I have said the Sox "rolled the dice."

 

My point is that your repeated claims of diminished velocity have never addressed the facts about Sale's career velocity and the seasons before he spiked in 2018. You keep acting like 2018 is his "norm," when it was actually far from it.

 

If Sale could be extremely effective at 92-93 before 2018, and he was at 93.2 in 2019, how can you say pitching at 92-93 going forward means he's toast?

 

Now, if he comes back at 90-91, you'll have a point, but pitchers with his surgery often come back with about the same velo the had before.

 

Please explain why you you think he needs to be at peak velocity to be effective again, when he was at 92-93 most of his career.

[moonslav59]

Check out his 2013-2016 velocity...

 

I've showed jacko these graphs countless times, and he has never responded to these facts.

[moonslav59]

I don't care what Sale thought.......

 

I'm concerned that your claim that he was injured prior to 3/29/19 and despite that and the physicals which more than likely were given than not, Sox signed him to a $245M contract. It doesn't seem good business practice.

 

Every contract is a roll of the dice. Signing Sale to about the same money Corbin got seems like a good business practice despite the risks.

 

BTW, this season is just year 2 of the deal, so let's not proclaim it as a bust just yet.

 

Both sides clearly knew there were health concerns. His contract amount is clear evidence neither side thought Sale was 100% healthy and had a rosy health future.

 

Nobody here has the actual test results, but that doesn't mean we don't know jack.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't care what Sale thought.......

 

I'm concerned that your claim that he was injured prior to 3/29/19 and despite that and the physicals which more than likely were given than not, Sox signed him to a $245M contract. It doesn't seem good business practice.

 

$145 mill, Nick, not $245 mill.

[moonslav59]

$145 mill, Nick, not $245 mill.

 

Even after knowing what I know about Sale, now, I still think the roll of the dice was worth the risk.

 

I'd rather have Sale than 2 Eovaldi's or a Price & Eovaldi combined.

[dgalehouse]

Every big contract is a roll of the dice , especially with pitchers . They are always one pitch away from a major injury. Sale is a great pitcher , but he has never won more than 17 games in a season. ( Now some analytics addict will remind us that wins are overrated. ) But if you want a great team , you have to roll those dice . No guts - No glory. You take a shot with a guy like Sale and hope for the best. There is no crying in baseball . It's only money. The owners are doing okay. And they can always raise ticket and concession prices yet again. Edited March 24, 2021 by dgalehouse

[Bellhorn04]

Every big contract is a roll of the dice , especially with pitchers . They are always one pitch away from a major injury. Sale is a great pitcher , but he has never won more than 17 games in a season. ( Now some analytics addict will remind us that wins are overrated. )

 

But you're the one who said he's a great pitcher, even though he's never won more than 17 games.

[Nick]

Every contract is a roll of the dice. Signing Sale to about the same money Corbin got seems like a good business practice despite the risks.

 

BTW, this season is just year 2 of the deal, so let's not proclaim it as a bust just yet.

 

Both sides clearly knew there were health concerns. His contract amount is clear evidence neither side thought Sale was 100% healthy and had a rosy health future.

 

Nobody here has the actual test results, but that doesn't mean we don't know jack.

 

 

 

I will go with the group think.....Red Sox signed injured Chris Sale to $145M contract. Period. Okay, you all convinced me. Thanks for setting the record straight.

[mvp 78]

I will go with the group think.....Red Sox signed injured Chris Sale to $145M contract. Period. Okay, you all convinced me. Thanks for setting the record straight.

 

I'm glad we could help you with that.

[Nick]

I'm glad we could help you with that.

 

"Shoulder trouble limited to Sale to 17 innings the final two months of last season, and he didn't look much like himself in the postseason. Shoulder issues are always worrisome, but the Red Sox know Sale and his medicals better than anyone, and they would not commit nine figures to a pitcher if they were worried about his health. They're confident the shoulder is a non-issue."

 

Here's one article from CBC MLB Mike Axis

 

Sox fan base is much smarter than the management, medical staff, and writers. Thanks again for setting me straight.

[Nick]

“Zero — zero concern,” pitching coach Dana LeVangie said. “Not at all. He dialed it up when he wanted to. It’s there. But he knows how important he is to his team. He can pitch, regardless of the velocity.”

 

After Sale's first start in 2019 (after the extension), his velocity being down from norm

 

I hope we fired this guy.

[Bellhorn04]

"Shoulder trouble limited to Sale to 17 innings the final two months of last season, and he didn't look much like himself in the postseason. Shoulder issues are always worrisome, but the Red Sox know Sale and his medicals better than anyone, and they would not commit nine figures to a pitcher if they were worried about his health. They're confident the shoulder is a non-issue."

 

Here's one article from CBC MLB Mike Axis

 

Let's put it this way: if they really weren't worried about his health, maybe they should have been.

 

I think even Sale himself said that his whole career he's had the threat of TJ surgery hanging over him. He's been kind of an obvious candidate because of his build, his motion and how hard he throws.

[Bellhorn04]

“Zero — zero concern,” pitching coach Dana LeVangie said. “Not at all. He dialed it up when he wanted to. It’s there. But he knows how important he is to his team. He can pitch, regardless of the velocity.”

 

After Sale's first start in 2019 (after the extension), his velocity being down from norm

 

I hope we fired this guy.

 

We sure did.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

"Shoulder trouble limited to Sale to 17 innings the final two months of last season, and he didn't look much like himself in the postseason. Shoulder issues are always worrisome, but the Red Sox know Sale and his medicals better than anyone, and they would not commit nine figures to a pitcher if they were worried about his health. They're confident the shoulder is a non-issue."

 

Here's one article from CBC MLB Mike Axis

 

Sox fan base is much smarter than the management, medical staff, and writers. Thanks again for setting me straight.

 

I'm still crooked: any concerns prior to Sale's extension were about his shoulder... and then he goes and misses over a year for an operation on his elbow?

 

I don't play a doctor on the internet, but personal concerns the past year have been atrophy and apathy from inactivity, and failing vision from staring at screens. Now I'm going to go pull a muscle in my brain.

[notin]

Let's put it this way: if they really weren't worried about his health, maybe they should have been.

 

I think even Sale himself said that his whole career he's had the threat of TJ surgery hanging over him. He's been kind of an obvious candidate because of his build, his motion and how hard he throws.

 

Absolutely true.

 

And if the Sox were not concerned, Sale certainly appeared to be. He spent his entire career as the poster boy for underpaid, and could have easily gotten a deal in the neighborhood of David Price's if healthy, but instead took one in the neighborhood of Patrick Corbin. He missed almost the entire second half of 2018, and his 2019 he had a career high in ERA (by a full run!!!), FIP and HR/9 and a career low in IP and ERA+. That he had 14 good IP in ST means nothing. (Was he even facing actual MLB hitters?) Since that contract kicked in, he has 0 IP. It always looked to me like he knew he should take a deal now rather than wait and see about the market. And it may have turned out to be the right move for him to take the deal when he did.

 

Maybe he wanted to stay in Boston? OK. But so did Eovaldi, and he still made sure he stayed for as much as possible...

[notin]

I'm still crooked: any concerns prior to Sale's extension were about his shoulder... and then he goes and misses over a year for an operation on his elbow?

 

I don't play a doctor on the internet, but personal concerns the past year have been atrophy and apathy from inactivity, and failing vision from staring at screens. Now I'm going to go pull a muscle in my brain.

 

Just because there were concerns about the shoulder doesn't mean there were no concerns about his elbow, does it?

[dgalehouse]

I checked about the Sale situation with the Sox' chief medical officer , Dr. Vinnie Boombatz. He said , " Pain and injuries to the pitching arm are usually a cause for concern ."

( Dr. Boombatz always provides great insight into these things. )

[Kimmi]

Had we let Sale walk, and he went on to have healthy and productive seasons, we'd have never heard the end of it.

 

Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

 

I have never had a problem with Sale's extension. As good of a pitcher as he is and can be, the contract is a good one.

[Kimmi]

I will go with the group think.....Red Sox signed injured Chris Sale to $145M contract. Period. Okay, you all convinced me. Thanks for setting the record straight.

 

I'm with you Nick. I don't agree with the claims that the Sox extended Sale knowing that he was injured. That just doesn't make any sense.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm with you Nick. I don't agree with the claims that the Sox extended Sale knowing that he was injured. That just doesn't make any sense.

 

This all started with notin suggesting that Sale signed a below market contract, he called it a 'Suspected Injury Discount'. Then we were off to the races LOL.

 

But I don't anyone said they knew for sure he was injured. More like factoring the risk of injury into the deal.

[moonslav59]

Absolutely true.

 

And if the Sox were not concerned, Sale certainly appeared to be. He spent his entire career as the poster boy for underpaid, and could have easily gotten a deal in the neighborhood of David Price's if healthy, but instead took one in the neighborhood of Patrick Corbin. He missed almost the entire second half of 2018, and his 2019 he had a career high in ERA (by a full run!!!), FIP and HR/9 and a career low in IP and ERA+...

 

An interesting note: Sale's K/9 were the highest of his career in 2018 (13.5) and 2019 (13.3). His career number before 2018 was 10.5.

 

Someone mentioned all the mileage he had on his arm. Sale has only gone over 175 IP five times in his career (and over 209 just three times.)

 

One wonders if he just over pitched in 2018 to reach that amazing 2.11 ERA and 13.5 K rate. After missing a couple starts after his July 27th start in 2018, he K'd 12 guys in 5 IP. I think the velo chart showed him above his career norm in that game. He then missed a few more starts and came back in the middle of September for 4 starts:

1 IP 2 K

3 IP 1 K

3.1 IP 7 K

4.2 IP 8 K

 

He pitched 15.1 IP in the 2018 playoffs and had 24 K's (a 14.1 K/9 rate), but he also walked 8 batters (4.7 per 9) and 11 hits (not bad) and a 4.11 ERA.

 

He certainly was not himself in 2019, and his last start was August 13th. His last two starts had some good numbers:

 

14.2 IP

25 K

2 BB

7 H (WHIP below 0.500)

3 ER (1.84 ERA)

 

2019 saw a few bad short stretches by Sale, along with some very nice longer stretches. I'm not sure if any of this has to do with what we can expect going forward, but some are using his numbers from 2018-2019 to show he was toasted before the surgery.

 

2019 broken down from the start of the season:

 

Game stretch/ ERA

4/ 8.50

12/ 2.44

3/ 8.27

2/1.50

2/ 14.00

2/ 1.84

 

3 bad stretches of 7 games total ruined what might have been a great season. Of course, most pitchers could break down a season like this and say similar things, but the fact is, he looked great for several stretches, including a 12 game stretch.

[moonslav59]

Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

 

I have never had a problem with Sale's extension. As good of a pitcher as he is and can be, the contract is a good one.

 

I wonder how many posters who were against the Sale signing are now for extending ERod at a slight discount rate due to health concerns.

 

Rolling the dice wins some and loses some, and to point out again, Sale's contract just started, last year.

[Larry Cook]

I wonder how many posters who were against the Sale signing are now for extending ERod at a slight discount rate due to health concerns.

 

Rolling the dice wins some and loses some, and to point out again, Sale's contract just started, last year.

 

I was totally against the sale extension.

 

However, I am all in on extending Rodriguez.

[moonslav59]

I was totally against the sale extension.

 

However, I am all in on extending Rodriguez.

 

Thanks for the honesty.

 

I loved the Sale extension and hope we can extend ERod before he wins the CYA, this year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Thanks for the honesty.

 

I loved the Sale extension and hope we can extend ERod before he wins the CYA, this year.

 

I was all in on signing both Sale and Eovaldi, but also admit I wondered if less than 100% health was a reason why Sale would take a slight team "discount" (less than a Scherzer contract). I also hoped the latter was instead a show of loyalty to the franchise, like with Bogaerts. Silly Sox fan that I yam.

 

I'm hoping for the best from ERod: his full recovery from the scourge of the planet, a great year on the mound, and a longterm offer from Bloom. Questions: which of these three scenarios is the most likely and which is most unlikely? Are they all directly related? If ERod just feels ok and has just an ok season, will the Sox try a lowball offer?

[cp176]

Chris Sale is one of the great pitchers of this current era. He has been and will be I believe will once again that good. Now I realize that you are all right about the Red Sox group led by John Henry being absolutely financially strapped for cash. Clearly we have fallen off the cliff and into the chasm of penney pitch city but I still believe that signing him will prove to be money well spent. Oh wait, it already has been.