Sox sign Hunter Renfroe

[Donnie Sadler was short]

Gomes was fun as hell to watch.

 

I don't think they open up the wallets for Springer.

 

Verdugo should stay in RF 100%.

 

Gomes was even more fun as a color announcer...I learned a lot listening to him.

 

One game, he explained that the way to win games was to "touch the plate more than the other team"!!!!

[Tedballgame]

I actually like this move

 

3.1 Million for a guy that hit .150 last year. Looks like an over pay.

[Tedballgame]

When the Sox were scouting him in HS, the scout saw Renfroe get walked with the bases loaded 3 times.

 

High School pitchers walk a lot of guys.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3.1 Million for a guy that hit .150 last year. Looks like an over pay.

 

I guess adding this righty power bat rules out signing Marcell Ozuna, who made six times as much last year...

 

... hopefully, the $15 mil savings goes to the procurement of pitching.

[mvp 78]

High School pitchers walk a lot of guys.

 

Meant to say intentionally walked.

[kenmeister]

3.1 Million for a guy that hit .150 last year. Looks like an over pay.

 

My thought as well.

[moonslav59]

My thought as well.

 

122 ABs.

 

(Also 8 Hrs in 122 is on pace for 40 in 610 ABs.)

[mvp 78]

122 ABs.

 

(Also 8 Hrs in 122 is on pace for 40 in 610 ABs.)

 

Also had a ridiculously low 141 BABIP. I think 3M is worth the upside.

[Bellhorn04]

3.1 Million for a guy that hit .150 last year. Looks like an over pay.

 

My thought as well.

 

If it was a full season you guys might have a point.

[moonslav59]

Also had a ridiculously low 141 BABIP. I think 3M is worth the upside.

 

Agreed. He's a 40+ HR player, if given enough PAs.

 

The .228 career BA & .290 career OBP are very troubling, but for a platoon/4th OF'er, it's a good sign.

 

(He has a .339 OBP vs LHPs.)

[mvp 78]

Agreed. He's a 40+ HR player, if given enough PAs.

 

The .228 career BA & .290 career OBP are very troubling, but for a platoon/4th OF'er, it's a good sign.

 

(He has a .339 OBP vs LHPs.)

 

I have zero problem with them signing platoon guys as long as they are meant to stay that way. I believe that a platoon with Beni could make the LF position very productive. Keeping those tough lefties off of Beni's plate could really turn him around.

[mvp 78]

If it was a full season you guys might have a point.

 

To be fair, his number since ASB 2019 aren't very good.

 

597 OPS

WRC+ 61

 

937 the first half of 2019, 136 WRC+.

[a700hitter]

Renfroe can hit the ball a mile, but he just can’t hit the ball.

[moonslav59]

I have zero problem with them signing platoon guys as long as they are meant to stay that way. I believe that a platoon with Beni could make the LF position very productive. Keeping those tough lefties off of Beni's plate could really turn him around.

 

I've always been a firm believer in splits, despite some players going against their normal splits from time to time.

 

Some feel benching beni vs LHPs will take him out of sinc or destroy his confidence. To me, hitting .600 vs LHPs will destroy anyone's confidence.

[moonslav59]

Renfroe can hit the ball a mile, but he just can’t hit the ball.

 

I'm surprised the anti high K rate posters haven't bashed this signing, yet.

[Bellhorn04]

I've always been a firm believer in splits, despite some players going against their normal splits from time to time.

 

Some feel benching beni vs LHPs will take him out of sinc or destroy his confidence. To me, hitting .600 vs LHPs will destroy anyone's confidence.

 

Benintendi has a career .691 vs. LHP. Not good, but not horrific either.

 

The average LHB OPS's less than .700 vs. LHP.

 

2020 .670

2019 .720

2018 .668

2017 .682

2016 .670

[mvp 78]

Benintendi has a career .691 vs. LHP. Not good, but not horrific either.

 

The average LHB OPS's less than .700 vs. LHP.

 

2020 .670

2019 .720

2018 .668

2017 .682

2016 .670

 

Renfroe's is .912. Seems like I'd rather have him in LF against LHP.

[mvp 78]

Fangraphs article on Renfroe:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-add-hunter-renfroe-to-their-outfield/

 

Earlier this offseason, Renfroe was cut loose by the Tampa Bay Rays after they balked at the raise he was scheduled to receive in his first year of arbitration. (MLB Trade Rumors projected his arbitration salary to fall between $3.6 million and $4.3 million.) His escalating salary combined with a significant step back in performance on the field made the decision easy for the penny-pinching Rays.

 

After establishing himself as a legitimate power threat in San Diego, Renfroe was shipped off to the Rays in the Tommy Pham deal prior to the 2020 season. During his first four seasons in Southern California, he launched 89 home runs for the Padres, backed by a .259 ISO, an 11.0% barrel rate, and a 39.2% hard hit rate. Despite a propensity to strikeout a little too often, he was five percent better than league average at the plate as a Padre. In his lone season in Tampa, his wRC+ fell to a career-low 76, though his power seemed mostly intact. His barrel rate dipped a couple points to 9.3% leading to a corresponding dip in his ISO to .238, but his hard hit rate stayed stable.

 

A ghastly .141 BABIP seems to be the source of most of his struggles in 2020. Even though his hard hit rate saw a dip, his batted ball distribution had some subtle changes that likely led to the dire results when he put the ball in play. Renfroe has always run high fly ball rates throughout his career, so it’s no surprise that his career BABIP is well below league average. His fly ball rate didn’t really budge in 2020 while his groundball rate jumped four points. But not all fly balls are created equal. At launch angles higher than 32 degrees, fly balls quickly become catchable, no matter how hard they’re hit. This season, Renfroe hit 34.9% of his batted balls with a launch angle higher than 32 degrees, a huge increase over his previous norms. All those extra lofty fly balls, pop ups, and grounders sabotaged any success he hoped to have when putting the ball in play.

 

It wasn’t a completely wasted season however. Renfroe managed to drop his strikeout rate by 4.6 points to 26.6% and raise his walk rate to a career high 10.1%. Those improvements to his plate discipline had their origin in a more passive approach at the plate. His overall swing rate dropped 4.4 points, which brought his chase rate down as well. And despite swinging less often, he was able to maintain his contact rate. Fewer swings while making contact at the same rate is an easy formula to improve a batter’s plate discipline.

 

Renfroe’s Joey Gallo-esque offensive profile is highly volatile. Slight changes to his batted ball profile can have massive effects on his results at the plate. And the high strikeout rate makes the margins between being a productive bat and an offensive drain that much slimmer. One thing that can be counted on, thought, is his production against left-handed pitchers. Over his career, he’s posted a .375 wOBA against southpaws, a nearly 75 point handedness split. With Verdugo and Andrew Benintendi the only other two outfielders on the Red Sox roster right now, Renfroe could make for a solid platoon partner for either of them, but the Red Sox believe he has the upside to be an everyday player.

 

Defensively, Renfroe is a bit difficult to pin down. In 2019, the advanced metrics saw a huge improvement in his fielding ability. DRS thought he was the second best outfielder in baseball with 23 runs saved. UZR saw him as only the fifth best outfielder with 10.1 runs saved. Statcast’s Outs Above Average was a little more bearish, but saw a significant improvement in the field nonetheless. But that performance now seems like an outlier after his defensive metrics came crashing back down in 2020. He was able to improve his route running this year so it’s unclear if his positioning in 2019 was what allowed him to be such a strong defender. He also receives a ton of defensive value from his strong throwing arm.

 

While Renfroe likely won’t match the heights of Betts or even the two-headed Verdugo-Pillar right fielder of 2020, he’s likely much better than his ugly line from this year indicates. If he can fix his batted ball issues and maintain his improved plate discipline and recapture his fielding prowess, he could be a nice bargain for Boston. That’s a lot of ifs, but the investment is low enough that the potential that he figures it all out is worth it.

 

Still, adding a reclamation project like Renfroe on an affordable contract shouldn’t preclude the Red Sox from adding another outfielder if the opportunity presents itself. Bringing back Bradley to give them a true center fielder is a possibility, giving them three left-handed hitting outfielders for Renfroe to spell. Renfroe has some upside and is a likely bounce-back candidate, but he’s not the key piece the Red Sox need to push themselves back into the competitive window.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm surprised the anti high K rate posters haven't bashed this signing, yet.

 

Ha -- I actually looked up 2019, the last full season, to see what MLBers with less than 100 Ks we could target for some semblance of batting order balance. There weren't even enough players -- infielders or outfielders -- for a worthy post.

[moonslav59]

Ha -- I actually looked up 2019, the last full season, to see what MLBers with less than 100 Ks we could target for some semblance of batting order balance. There weren't even enough players -- infielders or outfielders -- for a worthy post.

 

We could start balancing our our roster by trading Chavis. (Some might say Dalbec, too, but not me.)

[notin]

We could start balancing our our roster by trading Chavis. (Some might say Dalbec, too, but not me.)

 

Does any team actually want Chavis? And why?

 

His only appeal might be his salary...

[Bellhorn04]

Does any team actually want Chavis? And why?

 

His only appeal might be his salary...

 

+7.5 per BTV.

[notin]

+7.5 per BTV.

 

That does not mean anyone wants him.

 

The only teram that I think might be interested is the Brewers, who need to move on from Jedd Gyorko at 3B. I am not sure if they think Chavis is a fit at that position defensively (he does fit their tight budget), but the Brewers always do bizarre things in the infield. This is the team that moved both Travis Shaw and Mike Moustakas to 2B...

[moonslav59]

Chavis is part of almost every trade I suggest an BTV, for just that reason. He is over-valued.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Chavis is part of almost every trade I suggest an BTV, for just that reason. He is over-valued.

 

His most value just may be to allow the Sox to trade Dalbec (a better player) for pitching.

[moonslav59]

His most value just may be to allow the Sox to trade Dalbec (a better player) for pitching.

 

While true, I would not be happy with Chavis as our only 1Bman. (Maybe we sign Moreland, if Dalbec is traded.)

 

I'm higher on Dalbec than most. His K rate does not bother me, because he has a good OBP.

[Bellhorn04]

While true, I would not be happy with Chavis as our only 1Bman. (Maybe we sign Moreland, if Dalbec is traded.)

 

I'm higher on Dalbec than most. His K rate does not bother me, because he has a good OBP.

 

I'm high on Dalbec myself. Would rather not trade him.

[notin]

I'm high on Dalbec myself. Would rather not trade him.

 

But then slugging 1b might not be the most difficult commodity to replace.

 

Are the Sox better off with Dalbec? Or if they deal Dalbec to, say, Kansas City for Brad Keller and then sign Renato Nunez?

[harmony]

But then slugging 1b might not be the most difficult commodity to replace.

 

Are the Sox better off with Dalbec? Or if they deal Dalbec to, say, Kansas City for Brad Keller and then sign Renato Nunez?

The Royals would be better off just signing Renato Nunez and keeping Brad Keller, who is four weeks younger than Bobby Dalbec. ZiPS projects Keller with a 2021 WAR of 2.3 to the projected 0.8 for Dalbec. The 3-to-6 years of team control is not enough to make up the difference.

[Bellhorn04]

But then slugging 1b might not be the most difficult commodity to replace.

 

Are the Sox better off with Dalbec? Or if they deal Dalbec to, say, Kansas City for Brad Keller and then sign Renato Nunez?

 

I don't think like a wheeler dealer. I just like the kid. He looks like he's got some star potential.