Sox sign Hunter Renfroe

[notin]

I don't think like a wheeler dealer. I just like the kid. He looks like he's got some star potential.

 

I think there’s a good chance he’s the Second Coming of Russ Branyan...

[Kimmi]

So, bench Dalbec?

 

If Mitch comes back, then yes, at least to start the season. Unless he can play another position.

[Kimmi]

Also had a ridiculously low 141 BABIP. I think 3M is worth the upside.

 

$3M is chump change and definitely worth the upside. That's money that is easy to eat if he doesn't work out.

 

Also, we have him for 3 more years if he does work out.

[notin]

The Royals would be better off just signing Renato Nunez and keeping Brad Keller, who is four weeks younger than Bobby Dalbec. ZiPS projects Keller with a 2021 WAR of 2.3 to the projected 0.8 for Dalbec. The 3-to-6 years of team control is not enough to make up the difference.

 

Yes they would.

 

But they won’t get Nunez for minimum wage.

 

Also if you think the extra control of Dalbec does not even things out, you might want to let the people at BTV know. I didn’t choose Keller at random...

Edited December 16, 2020 by notin

[notin]

The Royals would be better off just signing Renato Nunez and keeping Brad Keller, who is four weeks younger than Bobby Dalbec. ZiPS projects Keller with a 2021 WAR of 2.3 to the projected 0.8 for Dalbec. The 3-to-6 years of team control is not enough to make up the difference.

 

Also I am not sure how relevant ZiPS is with this projection. Most projections (except Steamer600) also try to forecast playing time, which can change if a player is traded. and in this case, Dalbec would likely be a 1B in Boston, where his production is largely weighed against better hitters and defense is a lesser part of it to determine his fWAR. . However, in KC, where the royals non-tendered Maikel Franco and just signed Carlos Santana, Dalbec would more likely be a full time 3B. Is anyone projecting his fWAR for that role?

[Nick]

$3M is chump change and definitely worth the upside. That's money that is easy to eat if he doesn't work out.

 

Also, we have him for 3 more years if he does work out.

 

I like it that we don't piss away $5- $10M as we've done in the past. Our farm system is getting stronger and we still have money to pursue talent.

 

I'm willing to wait and build a consistent contender....let the rebuild begin.

Edited December 16, 2020 by Nick

[moonslav59]

If Mitch comes back, then yes, at least to start the season. Unless he can play another position.

 

We have a 3Bman and DH. While I like Moreland, spending on 1B in hopes he doess better than Dalbec will do may keep us from signing a better or extra RP'er or SP'er.

 

We could end up trading Dalbec and signing Moreland.

[Bellhorn04]

I think there’s a good chance he’s the Second Coming of Russ Branyan...

 

See, this is another reason baseball isn't as much fun anymore. A kid comes up and rakes in his first 23 MLB games. Once that would have been cause for a little excitement.

 

Now the response is "Russell Branyan profile. Trade high."

 

(Half-kidding, half-serious.)

[Bellhorn04]

We have a 3Bman and DH. While I like Moreland, spending on 1B in hopes he doess better than Dalbec will do may keep us from signing a better or extra RP'er or SP'er.

 

We could end up trading Dalbec and signing Moreland.

 

What about a Moreland/Dalbec platoon?

 

That would give us two platoons, one at 1B and one in LF.

[mvp 78]

If Mitch comes back, then yes, at least to start the season. Unless he can play another position.

 

If they re-sign Moreland, it's to platoon with Dalbec. Not sure they need to platoon Dalbec, but that's what it would be for.

[mvp 78]

Also I am not sure how relevant ZiPS is with this projection. Most projections (except Steamer600) also try to forecast playing time, which can change if a player is traded. and in this case, Dalbec would likely be a 1B in Boston, where his production is largely weighed against better hitters and defense is a lesser part of it to determine his fWAR. . However, in KC, where the royals non-tendered Maikel Franco and just signed Carlos Santana, Dalbec would more likely be a full time 3B. Is anyone projecting his fWAR for that role?

 

My problem with ZIPS is that it seems very light on his power potential. Dalbec has such easy power that if he's making contact, his slugging and ISO should be higher than what they forecast.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If they re-sign Moreland, it's to platoon with Dalbec. Not sure they need to platoon Dalbec, but that's what it would be for.

 

... or with Chavis, if Dalbec is flipped for pitching. It's doubtful Chavis is part of a second base platoon this year.

[Bellhorn04]

... or with Chavis, if Dalbec is flipped for pitching.

 

Grrrr...

[notin]

See, this is another reason baseball isn't as much fun anymore. A kid comes up and rakes in his first 23 MLB games. Once that would have been cause for a little excitement.

 

Now the response is "Russell Branyan profile. Trade high."

 

(Half-kidding, half-serious.)

 

Sorry for ruining it for you, but this isn't new. In fact, if anything, this might be more on you. After all, Russ Branyan actually had a career most young players can only hope to achieve; he just wasn't a star. But Branyan played for 14 seasons, hit 194 home runs and posted a career slash line of .232/.329/.485. He never deserved any sort of recognition like an All Star appearance or MVP consideration, and he was the definitive "journeyman" playing for 10 different teams in that 14 year stretch. But he was not exactly another rehash of Kevin Maas.

 

And I judge Dalbec on more than just those 23 games, I guess. I was also the rare one on this board (or maybe it was the other one?) that was constantly down on Will Middlebrooks, too, despite his hot start. Like how I thought the Mark Reynolds comps for Middlebrooks actually represented a lot of hopefulness, I don't think Branyan is necessarily a bad comp for Dalbec. Bobby might not have the same longevity, but nothing about him makes my guess about a TTO highK/high SLG/low BA profile exactly like Branyan look inaccurate or unlikely. I think too many people throw "All Star" expectations at young players far too quickly without being realistic about it. After all, I bet Branyan has the similar expectations from Cleveland fans when he hit 16 HRs and had a .871 OPS in 220 PA as a 24yo.

 

And maybe tempering the expectations a bit might make the game more enjoyable as you can appreciate some of the players for what they are as opposed to what you fantasize they can be...

[notin]

... or with Chavis, if Dalbec is flipped for pitching. It's doubtful Chavis is part of a second base platoon this year.

 

If the Sox are going to platoon at 1B, I'd just assume it be Chavis, who has no other known role, over wasting the better player in a limited role that might get him 150 PA over a full season...

[moonslav59]

What about a Moreland/Dalbec platoon?

 

That would give us two platoons, one at 1B and one in LF.

 

In some ways, it makes sense, since Moreland almost always has struggled vs LHPs, but do we really want a somewhat raw rookie riding the bench 2 out of every 3 games? Sure, he can PH in many of the games he does not start, but he should play everyday.

 

In very limited play, this year, Dalbec hit .903 v RHPs.

 

In a super tiny sample size in 2019 at AAA, he hit .753 vs RHPs and .950 v LHPs. IN AA, that year, .904 v L/.794 v R (not bad).

 

In 2018, he hit righties better at AA .868 v .701 and did very well vs both in A+ ball: .970 v R and .881 v L.

 

In 2017, he hit righties better, again: .797 v .724.

 

2021 seems like the perfect setting to turn Dalbec loose and let him play everyday. Let's see what we have.

 

He could get a few PAs at 3B, when Devers needs rest, and maybe some at DH, but not enough to justify signing Moreland to rob him of PAs at 1B.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

The guy is what he is. Branyan, Reynolds, Etc, those guys did end up having some good years. You can’t teach the power. In an offseason that will be dictated by value, this signing is a good play. He also won’t preclude you from finding a better option, but he’s not a bad fall back option if you miss out on a guy like Ozuna or Springer

[mvp 78]

If the Sox are going to platoon at 1B, I'd just assume it be Chavis, who has no other known role, over wasting the better player in a limited role that might get him 150 PA over a full season...

 

Makes no sense to platoon Chavis since he's actually worse at hitting lefties.

[notin]

... or with Chavis, if Dalbec is flipped for pitching. It's doubtful Chavis is part of a second base platoon this year.

 

Despite the priority being pitching, I think the Sox will move on a free agent 2B.

 

Second base is the position where the most likely bargains are going to be found. There are just too many players available who represent upgrades for Boston and not enough teams looking for a 2B for them all to find better deals elsewhere. Couple that with the limited amount of starting pitching worth signing in free agency, and the fact that the Sox DFA'd Yairo Munoz (which means he is not only not part of the 2B solution, he is not even expected to be part of the utility infielder solution), and it strongly indicates the Sox will bring in someone to play 2B.

 

I don't think they go all in for LeMahieu, Kolten Wong or Marcus Semien. But one of the Hernandez' (Cesar or Enrique) or Schoop or La Stella or Villar or Hanser Alberto are all options on the table...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But one of the Hernandez' (Cesar or Enrique) or Schoop or La Stella or Villar or Hanser Alberto are all options on the table...

 

... the ice cream table? They sound like Jen and Barry flavors. I think I'll have a Schoop of La Stella, please.

[notin]

... the ice cream table? They sound like Jen and Barry flavors. I think I'll have a Schoop of La Stella, please.

 

I strongly recommend the Villar-nilla...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think too many people throw "All Star" expectations at young players far too quickly without being realistic about it. After all, I bet Branyan has the similar expectations from Cleveland fans when he hit 16 HRs and had a .871 OPS in 220 PA as a 24yo.

 

And maybe tempering the expectations a bit might make the game more enjoyable as you can appreciate some of the players for what they are as opposed to what you fantasize they can be...

 

Some of those people even include "experts" like the editors of Sports Illustrated (back when fans read magazines), like when they put Cleveland's Cory Snyder on the cover of their 1987 Baseball Issue (along with Joe Carter). Hey, Snyder hit 33 HRs that year and played nine seasons; at least he turned out better than Super Joe Charboneau -- Rookie of the Year in 1980, out of the MLB forever two years later...

[jacksonianmarch]

Chavis has a big year ahead. He was good as a rook, awful in a pandemic shortened season and is entering the year without a guaranteed spot. If he breaks out, then you’re golden. If he continues to struggle, he likely won’t stick around for 2022

[mvp 78]

I strongly recommend the Villar-nilla...

 

I prefer Cookies N Kim.

[notin]

I prefer Cookies N Kim.

 

I think that one is too pricey. And very risky at not being worth it...

[Bellhorn04]

And maybe tempering the expectations a bit might make the game more enjoyable as you can appreciate some of the players for what they are as opposed to what you fantasize they can be...

 

Tempering the expectations...that's harmony-speak LOL

 

But seriously, tempering expectations is a good thing. What actually takes the fun away is the 'let's trade him while we can get something for him' mentality.

[mvp 78]

Some of those people even include "experts" like the editors of Sports Illustrated (back when fans read magazines), like when they put Cleveland's Cory Snyder on the cover of their 1987 Baseball Issue (along with Joe Carter). Hey, Snyder hit 33 HRs that year and played nine seasons; at least he turned out better than Super Joe Charboneau -- Rookie of the Year in 1980, out of the MLB forever two years later...

 

TBF, Charboneau had a lot of back issues and wasn't the type of guy to take care of himself (except for combining whisky and pliers when he wanted to do at home surgery). He wasn't long for the baseball world.

[mvp 78]

I think that one is too pricey. And very risky at not being worth it...

 

I'd sign Sugano too.

[notin]

Some of those people even include "experts" like the editors of Sports Illustrated (back when fans read magazines), like when they put Cleveland's Cory Snyder on the cover of their 1987 Baseball Issue (along with Joe Carter). Hey, Snyder hit 33 HRs that year and played nine seasons; at least he turned out better than Super Joe Charboneau -- Rookie of the Year in 1980, out of the MLB forever two years later...

 

And Cory Snyder's career actually flopped when compared to Branyan. Snyder played for 9 seasons, and after the first 3 (83 HRs, .776 OPS) tailed off dramatically (66 HRs .674 OPS in his last 6).

 

Of course, unlike Snyder, Branyan was also ranked in the top 100 by BA four times, including 2 in the top 30, as opposed to Snyder's 0. But the Legend of Cory Snyder started I believe with his being a key part of the Silver Medal winning Olympic team in 1984...

[notin]

TBF, Charboneau had a lot of back issues and wasn't the type of guy to take care of himself (except for combining whisky and pliers when he wanted to do at home surgery). He wasn't long for the baseball world.

 

He was also known for careless activities like opening beer bottles with his teeth. Not quite a Bobby Jenks level of self-abuse, but certainly not conducive to longevity in an athletic career...