2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[mvp 78]

Brad Miller. Not so much a CF, but can be a 1b/2b/3b/corner OF and bats LH. He was also a Bloom guy at one point...

 

There's a really strong chance that Alex Verdugo is the CFer for the next few years.

[notin]

There's a really strong chance that Alex Verdugo is the CFer for the next few years.

 

His skillset does work out very well in RF at Fenway...

[moonslav59]

His skillset does work out very well in RF at Fenway...

 

You need range and a strong arm in Fenway's CF, too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And Devers was a good 3b in 2019. I think this offseason (or lack there of) really messed him up.

 

He was good the second half of '19, brutal the first two months.

 

Rafael Devers has committed more errors the last three years than anyone else in the majors. The worst infield position on a team with bad pitching has to be an issue, has to be addressed, and has to improve going forward.

 

We may never know it, but the Cora-Devers connection may be a key factor in either bringing back AC or making changes with Rafie; guys like Bogie, JD, and Verdugo can be really good big leaguers, but the bat speed, exit-velo and balance of Devers has Hall of Fame potential (the closest thing to Mookie Betts on the current Red Sox).

[mvp 78]

@IanCundall

Seems Jarren Duran will be playing in the Puerto Rican league this winter and as

@pgammo noted yesterday, Caguas is being managed by Red Sox coach Ramon Vazquez.

[mvp 78]

@FrancysRomero10

Source: Cuban OF Kevin Jose Garcia (21) signs with the Boston Red Sox. Bonus deal is set in 25.000K.

 

He left Cuba in November 2017.

 

@SPChrisHatfield

Thought we'd hear about some int'l signings this week, as Red Sox had not yet used int'l bonus pool money rec'd from Colorado, but I don't believe this bonus even put them over the amount they had left pre-trade. Wonder if we'll see more signings before Thursday's deadline.

 

[oldtimer]

...and he was worse on D back then.

 

You watch the playoffs this year. Teams with great pitching usually have guys who induce ground balls. Just one error can lose a game. Maybe in 2018 we were just that much better that it didn't mean much but knowingly putting a poor fielder at the hot corner is high risk. He needs to show improvement or be moved to a position where he can succeed.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You watch the playoffs this year. Teams with great pitching usually have guys who induce ground balls. Just one error can lose a game. Maybe in 2018 we were just that much better that it didn't mean much but knowingly putting a poor fielder at the hot corner is high risk. He needs to show improvement or be moved to a position where he can succeed.

 

The '18 postseason was pretty much a platoon anyway, with Nunez starting 6 of the 14 games. He also made half of one of the most memorable plays in Red Sox history... though Devers made a great and underrated play in the World Series.

[mvp 78]

@FrancysRomero10

Source: Cuban OF Kevin Jose Garcia (21) signs with the Boston Red Sox. Bonus deal is set in 25.000K.

 

He left Cuba in November 2017.

 

@SPChrisHatfield

Thought we'd hear about some int'l signings this week, as Red Sox had not yet used int'l bonus pool money rec'd from Colorado, but I don't believe this bonus even put them over the amount they had left pre-trade. Wonder if we'll see more signings before Thursday's deadline.

 

 

@IanCundall

I wonder if the Red Sox plan is also for Jeter Downs to play winter ball in Puerto Rico or somewhere else. Of their top hitting prospects, he and Duran were the only ones not on the fall instructs roster.

[moonslav59]

You watch the playoffs this year. Teams with great pitching usually have guys who induce ground balls. Just one error can lose a game. Maybe in 2018 we were just that much better that it didn't mean much but knowingly putting a poor fielder at the hot corner is high risk. He needs to show improvement or be moved to a position where he can succeed.

 

He does need to improve, but he's not awful, in general. This 60 game season was not his best stretch, but even this year, he has shown flashes of plus D.

 

His arm and footwork are the concern areas.

 

His UZR/150 from 2019-2020 is 1.3. That ranks 22nd out of 32 third basemen with 650+ innings in that time frame. That's borderline middle to bottom third. (DRS is much more unkind- ranking him 31 of 32.)

 

At his age, he can get better.

 

We probably won't win in 2021 with great or poor D at 3B, so I'm thinking he should get another year. Give Dalbec some games there and see how he looks, too.

[moonslav59]

@IanCundall

I wonder if the Red Sox plan is also for Jeter Downs to play winter ball in Puerto Rico or somewhere else. Of their top hitting prospects, he and Duran were the only ones not on the fall instructs roster.

 

How's COVID down yonder way?

[Tedballgame]

I would like to hear from smart people on this board about what we can get at 4th pick....any can't miss starting pitcher? Please no high school kids...

 

Mike Trout was a high school kid!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Mike Trout was a high school kid!

 

And Nick Yorke!

[notin]

Yes, but isn't there a decent 2B/CF'er out there, too? (FA)

 

Dee Gordon? Leury Garcia?

[notin]

I would like to hear from smart people on this board about what we can get at 4th pick....any can't miss starting pitcher? Please no high school kids...

 

If the idea is to draft a pitcher for 2021, it’s probably not going to happen. Especially not as a starting pitcher. The only starter in recent years to skip the minors and go directly to an MLB starting rotation is Mike Leake.

 

But the Sox might be able to get someone capable of pitching in MLB in 2022. Most of the top arms in the mock drafts I’ve seen are college arms. And while the Sox should be able to get one, bear in mind there is no such thing as a “can’t miss” prospect. They can all miss...

[notin]

There's a really strong chance that Alex Verdugo is the CFer for the next few years.

 

It's also possible Boom Boom Bloom uses the CF position to take on an undesirable contract from another team to upgrade a pitching acquisition.

 

The two obvious candidates are Tampa's Kevin Kiermaier (2 yrs / $25.8mill or 3 yrs / $36.3 mill with an AAV $8.9 mill) and Atlanta's Ender Inciarte (1 yr/$9.7 mill or 2 yrs/$17mill with an AAV $6.1 mill).

 

Tampa isn't likely to bench Kiermaier, but they have made him expendable with last off-season's acquisitions of Manny Margot and Randy Arozarena, both of whom are very capable center fielders. and they have a clear need at catcher and a strong interest in Christian Vazquez, or at least reportedly did last August. And Tampa is loaded with young pitching talent Bloom of which Bloom is very aware.

 

Atlanta is very likely to flat out bench Inciarte, making him that much more available, and give CF to top prospect Christian Pache. Now they might not be as interested in Vazquez if they are satisfied with Travis d'Arnaud and their catching prospect William Contreras (who was on the NLDS roster this season). Their most glaring need is 3B, where they have been playing Austin Riley lately, but they have also found reasons to try him in other positions, and they had so little confidence in him they went so far as to pick up Pablo Sandoval. Defensive metrics do not like Riley at 3B, and really, don't like him anywhere except maybe LF. This begs the question about whether or not they might have interest in Bobby Dalbec, and whether or not Boston would move him for pitching. (Devers goes nowhere.)

 

Everybody's favorite website values Dalbec with a surplus of $23.mill and Inciarte with a value of (-$9.7) million. The difference is not enough to get Ian Anderson out of Atlanta.

 

So which trade looks more plausible?

 

Dalbec to Atlanta for Inciarte, LHP Tucker Davidson, LHP Kyle Muller and RHP Jessel de la Cruz works on BTV, but no way Atlanta gives up three young pitchers for a 3B with 92 career plate appearances and no MLB innings at 3B just to save $10mill. Maybe you can get two of them. Maybe. But I remain skeptical.

 

Vazquez to Tampa for Kiermaier, RHP Shane Baz and LHP Shane McClanahan also works. Still a tough sell on Tampa, but they give up fewer pitchers and save more money, which is crucial to them. Of course, if they win the World Series with Michael Perez and Mike Zunino behind the plate, they might be less desperate to acquire a catcher at all. Although they more than likely watch Zunino walk, so there is an opportunity. Both Shane's have combined for a career total of 8 innings in AA, all of them by McClanahan. But McClanahan also made his MLB debut in the post-season this year, and I think he is the first pitcher in MLB history to make a debut this way.

 

I think a deal with Atlanta is more likely, but not with 3 pitchers coming back and definitely not those 3. Maybe the Sox can get two pitchers, and more likely one of them is Kyle Wright or Bryse Wilson as opposed to Davidson or Muller. And the second one is someone still in A ball.

 

That is assuming they are willing to part with Dalbec, of course...

Edited October 14, 2020 by notin

[mvp 78]

If the idea is to draft a pitcher for 2021, it’s probably not going to happen. Especially not as a starting pitcher. The only starter in recent years to skip the minors and go directly to an MLB starting rotation is Mike Leake.

 

But the Sox might be able to get someone capable of pitching in MLB in 2022. Most of the top arms in the mock drafts I’ve seen are college arms. And while the Sox should be able to get one, bear in mind there is no such thing as a “can’t miss” prospect. They can all miss...

 

Even then, he didn't pitch until the following year.

[illinoisredsox]

notin, Dalbec played 15 innings at 3B this year (including 1 full game) and has a fielding percentage of 1.000 on 1 chance (an assist).

 

Doesn’t change your point though.

[notin]

notin, Dalbec played 15 innings at 3B this year (including 1 full game) and has a fielding percentage of 1.000 on 1 chance (an assist).

 

Doesn’t change your point though.

 

My bad. But you are correct on all counts. It's not like Atlanta GM Alex Anthopolous would say "You know, we need to see him at third base. If he only had, say, 15 innings there and handled at least one groundball, I'd feel a little bit safer in this deal."

 

And pitching or not, I have no idea exactly how available Dalbec is anyway. Right now, he stands out as one of very few bright spots in an otherwise abysmal season for the Sox...

[mvp 78]

I would say that it is much easier to grab Inciarte since the Braves are flush with OFers and Inciarte can't get off the bench anymore. I think Kiermaier is still an important cog for the Rays and I don't want to have to learn how to spell his name so I'd rather he not get traded to the Sox.

[notin]

Even then, he didn't pitch until the following year.

 

That's not surprising. Not many make their MLB debut the year they get drafted anyway.

 

The only pitchers I have seen get drafted and pitch in MLB that same season are usually relievers. Chad Cordero being one of the more successful ones (as a relief pitcher/closer). Chris Sale did debut the season he was drafted as a reliever and held that same role the entire following season before converting to an extremely successful starter. But some pitchers who debut the season they are drafted are a lot less successful, like Craig Hansen for the Sox, or Joey Devine for the Braves or Christian Finnegan for the Royals. Garret Crochet was drafted this year by the White Sox and made his debut as a reliever, but saw very limited action before getting hurt (6 IP in the regular season and 2 hitters in the post-season).

 

Hitters who debut the same season they get drafted are almost non-existant. The only one I can think of who did this was Ryan Zimmerman...

[notin]

I would say that it is much easier to grab Inciarte since the Braves are flush with OFers and Inciarte can't get off the bench anymore. I think Kiermaier is still an important cog for the Rays and I don't want to have to learn how to spell his name so I'd rather he not get traded to the Sox.

 

You did spell his name correctly. Next time, I expect to see Keermayer.

 

I definitely see Inciarte being much more available. He only played part time this year, and the Braves hadn't even used Christian Pache yet. Inciarte was losing playing time to Nick Markakis. Any player making $9mill to back up Nick Markakis has to rank among the most available players in MLB, regardless of the market size he plays in...

[Nick]

If the Dodgers get knocked out, then it's been a perfect playoffs.

 

We garnered a fourth pick for playing lousy for 60 games. It would have been difficult to watch/follow this team for 162 games. It was quick.

 

Meanwhile the Yankees' young talent got year older and more expensive.

 

If the Dodgers swing and miss, then their World Series drought extends another year.

 

I can't wait for this off season. Our farm system looks to be getting stronger and fuller. There are some pitching prospects on the horizon.

[moonslav59]

It's also possible Boom Boom Bloom uses the CF position to take on an undesirable contract from another team to upgrade a pitching acquisition.

 

The two obvious candidates are Tampa's Kevin Kiermaier (2 yrs / $25.8mill or 3 yrs / $36.3 mill with an AAV $8.9 mill) and Atlanta's Ender Inciarte (1 yr/$9.7 mill or 2 yrs/$17mill with an AAV $6.1 mill).

 

Tampa isn't likely to bench Kiermaier, but they have made him expendable with last off-season's acquisitions of Manny Margot and Randy Arozarena, both of whom are very capable center fielders. and they have a clear need at catcher and a strong interest in Christian Vazquez, or at least reportedly did last August. And Tampa is loaded with young pitching talent Bloom of which Bloom is very aware.

 

Atlanta is very likely to flat out bench Inciarte, making him that much more available, and give CF to top prospect Christian Pache. Now they might not be as interested in Vazquez if they are satisfied with Travis d'Arnaud and their catching prospect William Contreras (who was on the NLDS roster this season). Their most glaring need is 3B, where they have been playing Austin Riley lately, but they have also found reasons to try him in other positions, and they had so little confidence in him they went so far as to pick up Pablo Sandoval. Defensive metrics do not like Riley at 3B, and really, don't like him anywhere except maybe LF. This begs the question about whether or not they might have interest in Bobby Dalbec, and whether or not Boston would move him for pitching. (Devers goes nowhere.)

 

Everybody's favorite website values Dalbec with a surplus of $23.mill and Inciarte with a value of (-$9.7) million. The difference is not enough to get Ian Anderson out of Atlanta.

 

So which trade looks more plausible?

 

Dalbec to Atlanta for Inciarte, LHP Tucker Davidson, LHP Kyle Muller and RHP Jessel de la Cruz works on BTV, but no way Atlanta gives up three young pitchers for a 3B with 92 career plate appearances and no MLB innings at 3B just to save $10mill. Maybe you can get two of them. Maybe. But I remain skeptical.

 

Vazquez to Tampa for Kiermaier, RHP Shane Baz and LHP Shane McClanahan also works. Still a tough sell on Tampa, but they give up fewer pitchers and save more money, which is crucial to them. Of course, if they win the World Series with Michael Perez and Mike Zunino behind the plate, they might be less desperate to acquire a catcher at all. Although they more than likely watch Zunino walk, so there is an opportunity. Both Shane's have combined for a career total of 8 innings in AA, all of them by McClanahan. But McClanahan also made his MLB debut in the post-season this year, and I think he is the first pitcher in MLB history to make a debut this way.

 

I think a deal with Atlanta is more likely, but not with 3 pitchers coming back and definitely not those 3. Maybe the Sox can get two pitchers, and more likely one of them is Kyle Wright or Bryse Wilson as opposed to Davidson or Muller. And the second one is someone still in A ball.

 

That is assuming they are willing to part with Dalbec, of course...

 

These are the types of deals I think Bloom will seek. I think we hold onto Dalbec, but we could get someone like Kiermaier and one pitcher for something much less valuable than Dalbec or Vaz.

 

How about Chavis for Inciarte and Mueller or de la Cruz? (BTV accepted all 3 for 1).

 

I'd do Vaz doe Kiermaier & Baz. We'd need to find a catcher or go with Plawecki/Wong.

[harmony]

Everybody's favorite website values Dalbec with a surplus of $23.mill and Inciarte with a value of (-$9.7) million. The difference is not enough to get Ian Anderson out of Atlanta.

 

That is assuming they are willing to part with Dalbec, of course...

Can the Red Sox find a trade partner that assigns a similar value to Bobby Dalbec (and his projected 36 percent strikeout rate)?

 

The Red Sox may well pursue Atlanta centerfielder Ender Inciarte, whom ZiPS projects with a 2021 WAR of 1.7, which in 2019 was valued at about $13 million.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ender-inciarte/4922/stats?position=OF#zips-3-year-projections

 

The Braves may balk at that exchange.

 

Or not.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think Bloom adds an outfielder or two, depending on the fates of JBJ and Beni, but I think it will be a righty stick, since the entire projected starting outfield, plus Jarren Duran when/if he makes it, are all lefty swingers. So that may rule out guys like Inciarte and Gordon, among others. There are not actually many free agent centerfielders that bat righthanded, just Pillar and Marisnick? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/2020-21-mlb-free-agents.html

 

That is, of course, unless Cora comes back and somehow recruits Springer, Reddick or Marwin Gonzalez for a roster spot...

[mvp 78]

You did spell his name correctly. Next time, I expect to see Keermayer.

 

I definitely see Inciarte being much more available. He only played part time this year, and the Braves hadn't even used Christian Pache yet. Inciarte was losing playing time to Nick Markakis. Any player making $9mill to back up Nick Markakis has to rank among the most available players in MLB, regardless of the market size he plays in...

 

I baseball referenced both "Inciarte" and "Kiermaier" spellings.

[mvp 78]

If the Dodgers get knocked out, then it's been a perfect playoffs.

 

We garnered a fourth pick for playing lousy for 60 games. It would have been difficult to watch/follow this team for 162 games. It was quick.

 

Meanwhile the Yankees' young talent got year older and more expensive.

 

If the Dodgers swing and miss, then their World Series drought extends another year.

 

I can't wait for this off season. Our farm system looks to be getting stronger and fuller. There are some pitching prospects on the horizon.

 

These are the kinds of posts I enjoy.

[mvp 78]

Can the Red Sox find a trade partner that assigns a similar value to Bobby Dalbec (and his projected 36 percent strikeout rate)?

 

The Red Sox may well pursue Atlanta centerfielder Ender Inciarte, whom ZiPS projects with a 2021 WAR of 1.7, which in 2019 was valued at about $13 million.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ender-inciarte/4922/stats?position=OF#zips-3-year-projections

 

The Braves may balk at that exchange.

 

Or not.

 

Problem being that Inciarte isn't really a good CFer. Would Beni be worse in CF than Inciarte over a full season?

[mvp 78]

I think Bloom adds an outfielder or two, depending on the fates of JBJ and Beni, but I think it will be a righty stick, since the entire projected starting outfield, plus Jarren Duran when/if he makes it, are all lefty swingers. So that may rule out guys like Inciarte and Gordon, among others. There are not actually many free agent centerfielders that bat righthanded, just Pillar and Marisnick? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/2020-21-mlb-free-agents.html

 

That is, of course, unless Cora comes back and somehow recruits Springer, Reddick or Marwin Gonzalez for a roster spot...

 

Pass on Reddick.