A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[mvp 78]

Devers is going to be looking for a Mookie contract. He’s going to be very young as a first time FA and he’s a rare breed that can hit for plus power and plus average. He is what the Blue Jays hope Vladdy Jr can be

 

Btw, am I the only one who’s autocorrect changed Mookie to Millie every damn time? I don’t even know a Millie

 

Someone doesn't watch Stranger Things!

[mvp 78]

He might be looking, but he is not likely to be getting one from anyone. (Now, Ronald Acuna, he will be getting one of those.) Age aside, Devers simply is not as good as Betts. B-R lists his most similar batter by age as Ryan Zimmerman, but obviously he won't be looking for a Zimmerman deal (~8 years $114mill), as it was so long ago it's not fiscally relevant. But an 8 year $200-220mill contract does seem right if he signs it by age 27. He'll very likely go for more than Bogaerts...

 

For now, Devers is definitely second tier for those mega contracts.

[notin]

For now, Devers is definitely second tier for those mega contracts.

 

Agreed.

 

And his $25-27mill AAV won't impede his ability to put food on the table...

[harmony]

Throwing out another Rafael Devers comp: Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager, who in December 2014 signed a seven-year, $100 million extension when he was three years shy of free agency.

 

Devers, who this offseason will be three years shy of free agency, is three years younger than Seager was when the latter sgned his extension.

 

When Seager signed his extension the third baseman had posted 13.8 fWAR, valued at $99.8 million, in 527 games. So far Devers has posted 8.3 fWAR, valued at $66.7 million, in 377 games.

[mvp 78]

Throwing out another Rafael Devers comp: Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager, who in December 2014 signed a seven-year, $100 million extension when he was three years shy of free agency.

 

Devers, who this offseason will be three years shy of free agency, is three years younger than Seager was when the latter sgned his extension.

 

When Seager signed his extension the third baseman had posted 13.8 fWAR, valued at $99.8 million, in 527 games. So far Devers has posted 8.3 fWAR, valued at $66.7 million, in 377 games.

 

Devers had 7.9 career fWAR prior to turning 23. Seager was still in A ball at 23.

[harmony]

Devers had 7.9 career fWAR prior to turning 23. Seager was still in A ball at 23.

The Red Sox signed Rafael Devers as a 16-year-old in the Dominican Republic while the Seattle Mariners drafted Kyle Seager as a 21-year-old out of the University of North Carolina.

 

Devers and Seager took different development paths.

[notin]

The Red Sox signed Rafael Devers as a 16-year-old in the Dominican Republic while the Seattle Mariners drafted Kyle Seager as a 21-year-old out of the University of North Carolina.

 

Devers and Seager took different development paths.

 

And as much as we would all like Devers to settle for a Seager contract, I would think the age difference alone is going to put him in a different tax bracket...

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox signed Rafael Devers as a 16-year-old in the Dominican Republic while the Seattle Mariners drafted Kyle Seager as a 21-year-old out of the University of North Carolina.

 

Devers and Seager took different development paths.

 

And Devers' development path is why many think he has a much higher ceiling than Seager and that the comp may not be all that great.

[harmony]

And Devers' development path is why many think he has a much higher ceiling than Seager and that the comp may not be all that great.

After this season Rafael Devers will have three years before free agency to prove that his 2019 season was not an outlier.

 

FWIW this season the aging Kyle Seager had doubled Devers' fWAR in near-meaningless small samples of 43 and 42 games, respectively.

[harmony]

And as much as we would all like Devers to settle for a Seager contract, I would think the age difference alone is going to put him in a different tax bracket...

Rafael Devers will not be expected to settle for a Seager contract (which has been much-maligned despite Seager posting 18.2 fWAR, valued at $145.7 million, so far under the seven-year, $100 million contract, including 4.2 fWAR, valued at $33.5 million, in 149 games since the start of the 2019 season).

[dgalehouse]

After this season Rafael Devers will have three years before free agency to prove that his 2019 season was not an outlier.

 

FWIW this season the aging Kyle Seager had doubled Devers' fWAR in near-meaningless small samples of 43 and 42 games, respectively.

The Cooler.

[mvp 78]

After this season Rafael Devers will have three years before free agency to prove that his 2019 season was not an outlier.

 

FWIW this season the aging Kyle Seager had doubled Devers' fWAR in near-meaningless small samples of 43 and 42 games, respectively.

 

A small sample which included an abnormally long stretch of bad baseball from Devers who has bounced back considerably. My guess is that if the season went a full 162, Devers would lap Seager's fWAR.

[harmony]

A small sample which included an abnormally long stretch of bad baseball from Devers who has bounced back considerably. My guess is that if the season went a full 162, Devers would lap Seager's fWAR.

Or not.

 

In September Rafael Devers has posted 0.6 fWAR in nine games while Kyle Seager has posted 0.4 fWAR in six games:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=1000&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-09-01&enddate=2020-09-11

Edited September 11, 2020 by harmony

[notin]

Or not.

 

In September Rafael Devers has posted 0.6 fWAR in nine games while Kyle Seager has posted 0.4 fWAR in six games:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=1000&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-09-01&enddate=2020-09-11

 

And you expect that pace to hold up for 162 games?

[harmony]

And you expect that pace to hold up for 162 games?

Neither will maintain that pace but mvp78 noted that "Devers [] has bounced back considerably" in a minuscule sample.

[Bellhorn04]

Rafael Devers will not be expected to settle for a Seager contract (which has been much-maligned despite Seager posting 18.2 fWAR, valued at $145.7 million, so far under the seven-year, $100 million contract, including 4.2 fWAR, valued at $33.5 million, in 149 games since the start of the 2019 season).

 

No one should be maligning Seager's contract.

[oldtimer]

Neither will maintain that pace but mvp78 noted that "Devers [] has bounced back considerably" in a minuscule sample.

 

Devers is a unique cornerstone player for the Sox. How they write a contract for him going forward will go a long way towards making and keeping the team in contention.

[moonslav59]

baseballtradevalues.com has Devers ranked 24th in MLB...

 

24. Devers 83.9

26. Moncada 83.6

47. Verdugo 62.3

118. Bogaerts 33.7

136. F Montas 30.6

153. M Kopech 27.9

156. J Downs 26.4

183. T Casas 22.2

216. Dalbec 19.7

238. Chavis 17.6

284. Vazquez 14.4

313. Mata 12.4

319. Duran 12.1

365. D Hernandez 10.5

367. E Rodriguez 10.5

414. J Taylor 8.5

415. Jimenez 8.5

522. Lugo 6.0

547. Perez 5.6

...

Betts 5.4

 

JD M -8.6

Price -11.8

Sale -20.0

Eovaldi -21.0

 

 

 

[Kimmi]

Looks like Peraza is a failed experiment so we need to keep looking for a placeholder at 22nd base for 2020 and early 2021.

 

There may be some internal options, or we might have to make some smaller type moves for position players. Nothing major though.

 

The overwhelming majority of the focus should be on pitching.

[Kimmi]

Building a full rotation and pen isn’t easy when you need to save cash to start paying your offensive stars

 

We don't have to build a full rotation or a full pen from scratch.

 

Also, we reset. That helps a great deal. Another also, the Sox were willing to let Mookie walk. If our other stars are deemed too expensive, they will walk as well.

[Kimmi]

Peraza is extremely likely to be non-tendered.

 

Of the remaining 3, Arauz is most likely to be in Pawtucket. He's only in MLB now to clear his Rule 5 status. While I liked Lin as the starting 2b 6 months ago, he has done zero to prove me right. Chavis is not a full time player. And I think Chatham can play the position defensively, but he is a high strikeout/low BB slap hitter whose numbers have been dependent on insanely high BABIP in the minors. (Granted, he rarely hits the ball in the air, and his LD/GB approach should lead to a higher BABIP.) Can he maintain anything close to this type of success in MLB? I'd bet against it if he was getting 600 ABs per year. He's probably best used as a utility infielder who can adequately back up 2B, 3B and SS.

 

Munoz strikes me as the best internal option, but even he has had limited success in the majors to date...

 

I am thinking Munoz as well.

 

I am also thinking (hoping) JBJ is re-signed on a team friendly deal and Beni will find his way again next year, which takes care of the starting OF.

[Kimmi]

I used to always prefer baseball reference, but I have grown to see that fangraphs is typically more user friendly and easier to navigate. The only time I go straight to baseball ref is when I'm on my phone.

 

Fangraphs is my #1 go to. Baseball reference has improved rather nicely over the years, but it's still no Fangraphs.

[Kimmi]

Devers is going to be looking for a Mookie contract. He’s going to be very young as a first time FA and he’s a rare breed that can hit for plus power and plus average. He is what the Blue Jays hope Vladdy Jr can be

 

Btw, am I the only one who’s autocorrect changed Mookie to Millie every damn time? I don’t even know a Millie

 

I love Devers. He is a great player. However, he should not be put in the same class as Mookie. Maybe he will get there because he is still very young, but he's not at Mookie's level.

[notin]

Fangraphs is my #1 go to. Baseball reference has improved rather nicely over the years, but it's still no Fangraphs.

 

B-R is better for a lot of things, but when it comes to comparing advanced stats, it fails in comparison to Fangraphs. Badly...

[oldtimer]

I am thinking Munoz as well.

 

I am also thinking (hoping) JBJ is re-signed on a team friendly deal and Beni will find his way again next year, which takes care of the starting OF.

 

Since the hope is that Downs will fill the 2nd base position in the not to distant future, ala July of 2021, why not fill with Chavis, Chatham or Lin? I have yet to see any other, including Munoz as better option.

 

As far as outfield, it would be a reasonable approach to sign JBJ on a team friendly contract, but that is a iffy proposition. I by no means am convinced that Beni is our outfielder of the future so I would look to fill at least one outfield slot. If Jarren is ready then he would be a good fit. Either use him or lose him. I think the Sox have seen enough to do the former and in 2021.

 

My approach would preserve the majority of money for Pitching. At least one quality starter, a closer and several relievers.

[oldtimer]

I love Devers. He is a great player. However, he should not be put in the same class as Mookie. Maybe he will get there because he is still very young, but he's not at Mookie's level.

 

Maybe we give .Devers an extension now, if he will accept it, and not let FA creep up on us

[moonslav59]

We don't have to build a full rotation or a full pen from scratch.

 

Also, we reset. That helps a great deal. Another also, the Sox were willing to let Mookie walk. If our other stars are deemed too expensive, they will walk as well.

 

Our pen is pretty close to needing a total re-haul. It looks like only D Hern, Barnes and Valdez have much hope.

 

Our rotation hope lies mainly on health. If Sale, ERod and Eovaldi don't gives us much, next year, all we have is Perez, who may have just seen a somewhat outlier half season.

 

In reality, to be a very competitive team, we might get by with just 2 meaningful SP'er additions, but we likely will need 3-4 new and good pen arms to make a difference.

 

6 pitchers out of 13 is not "from scratch," but it's a major overhaul.

[moonslav59]

I love Devers. He is a great player. However, he should not be put in the same class as Mookie. Maybe he will get there because he is still very young, but he's not at Mookie's level.

 

His defense and base-running will never match Mookie, but the bat could.

 

Here's a simplified look at the two at certain ages:

 

OPS/Level

Age Devers

20-21 1.006 AAA/.944 AA

20 .819 MLB (started MLB a year earlier than Betts)

21 .731 MLB

22 .916 MLB

23 .864 MLB

 

Age Betts

20 .923 A and A+ (lower level than Devers at age 20)

21 .920 AAA/.994 AA

21 .812 MLB

22 .820 MLB

23 .897 MLB

24 .803 MLB

 

Total Ages 20-23 (Mookie 21-23)

 

Devers: (1616 PAs) .282/.335/.505/.840

Betts: (1597 PAs) .304/.355/.500/.855

 

(Betts had an .803 season at age 24, so Devers could easily pass him, next year by putting up a .880+ season.)

 

Let's see if Devers explodes on offense as he enters prime.

 

His defense has shown signs of becoming plus, but he's has seen too many backslides, mostly with throwing, to show GG hopes. His base running instincts do not look promising.

 

It's hard to compare the two, and one could argue they shouldn't be compared, but Devers may end up the better hitter of the two, when all is said and done.

 

Edited September 12, 2020 by moonslav59

[harmony]

No one should be maligning Seager's contract.

The last maligned contract* of a Seattle third baseman was for Adrian Beltre, who in December 2004 signed a five-year, $64 million deal with the Mariners. Beltre posted 16.1 fWAR, valued at $88.3 million, in five years with Seattle, including only 2.2 fWAR, valued at $14.0 million, in his final season.

 

Beltre left Seattle for a one-year, $9 million contract in Boston, where in 2010 he posted 6.4 fWAR, valued at $38.7 million.

 

The future Hall of Famer played eight more seasons in Texas, where he posted 36.3 fWAR, valued at $276.2 million.

 

Career trajectories are hard to project.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/adrian-beltre/639/stats?position=3B

 

* on second thought the most maligned contract for a Seattle third baseman went in December 2009 to Chone Figgins, who in 308 games under his four-year, $36 million contract posted a negative 0.7 fWAR, valued at a negative $4.3 million

Edited September 12, 2020 by harmony

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

His defense and base-running will never match Mookie, but the bat could.

 

Here's a simplified look at the two at certain ages:

 

OPS/Level

Age Devers

20-21 1.006 AAA/.944 AA

20 .819 MLB (started MLB a year earlier than Betts)

21 .731 MLB

22 .916 MLB

23 .864 MLB

 

Age Betts

20 .923 A and A+ (lower level than Devers at age 20)

21 .920 AAA/.994 AA

21 .812 MLB

22 .820 MLB

23 .897 MLB

24 .803 MLB

 

Total Ages 20-23 (Mookie 21-23)

 

Devers: (1616 PAs) .282/.335/.505/.840

Betts:(1597 PAs) .304/.355/.500/.855

 

(Betts had an .803 season at age 24, so Devers could easily pass him, next year by putting up a .880+ season.)

 

Let's see if Devers explodes on offense as he enters prime.

 

His defense has shown signs of becoming plus, but he's has seen too many backslides, mostly with throwing, to show GG hopes. His base running instincts do not look promising.

 

It's hard to compare the two, and one could argue they shouldn't be compared, but Devers may end up the better hitter of the two, when all is said and done.

 

 

From what I can see -- and remember seeing -- there are huge differences between Betts and Devers that go beyond Mookie's superior stats, elite defense and baserunning. Both have great hand-eye skills but Betts -- who has already starred in over twice as many games -- has always had a better approach to hitting, with a more contained line drive swing. Devers can be a borderline hack, trying to kill way too many pitches above and below the strike zone.

 

Maybe Rafie matures into a lefthanded Miggie Cabrera, but right now there is already some skepticism about inconsistent focus and conditioning. For those who think Devers may turn out to be a better longterm investment, it's worth noting that Mookie Betts has never given anyone in baseball one single pause that he won't sustain his Hall of Fame career for the next decade.