A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Always a bid idea, IMO. Those teams could have been easily derailed by injuries. And even in the face of a third place finish, slapped their fans in the face by saying "Why watch a good team now when you can gamble we might have one in the future?"

 

Such is life for Mariners fans.

[harmony]

Always a bid idea, IMO. Those teams could have been easily derailed by injuries. And even in the face of a third place finish, slapped their fans in the face by saying "Why watch a good team now when you can gamble we might have one in the future?"

After being projected to finish a distant last in the AL West again, the Seattle Mariners are in third place, closer to the second-place Astros than to the fourth-place Angels. With baseball's youngest roster, the Mariners are 14-7 since August 20.

 

Mariner fans still have moments to cheer:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCR56BOvqWw

[mvp 78]

Such is life for Mariners fans.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Seattle_Mariners_seasons

 

Since 67, the Sox have only been as bad as the 2020 Mariners three times (that includes this year).

[harmony]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Seattle_Mariners_seasons

 

Since 67, the Sox have only been as bad as the 2020 Mariners three times (that includes this year).

Seattle's current record of 22-26 (.458) is empirically better than the Red Sox record in 2020 (17-31, .354), 2014 (71-91, .438), 2012 (69-93, .457) and 1992 (73-89, .451).

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/

 

The Mariners have only once posted a winning percentage lower than the Red Sox current .354 at 17-31. In their second season the Mariners posted a 56-104 (.350) record in 1978.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/

 

We can agree that the Red Sox have been the far more successful franchise since the inception of the Mariners in 1977.

Edited September 15, 2020 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Teams will be spending, just not the Sox.

 

We should have close to $70M to spend and not go over the limit. That's more than almost any other team could spend- assuming we spend it all.

 

I think we spend at least $50M, this winter- some of it on longer terms than 1-2 years.

[mvp 78]

Seattle's current record of 22-26 (.458) is empirically better than the Red Sox record in 2020 (17-31, .354), 2014 (71-91, .438), 2012 (69-93, .457) and 1992 (73-89, .451).

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/

 

The Mariners have only once posted a winning percentage lower than the Red Sox current .354 at 17-31. In their second season the Mariners posted a 56-104 (.350) record in 1978.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/

 

We can agree that the Red Sox have been the far more successful franchise since the inception of the Mariners in 1977.

 

OH s***, I missed one. I will now fall on my petard.

[jacksonianmarch]

That was a Mariners team that faded badly down the stretch and still won 89 games. The prevailing thought was that they markedly overachieved early and that the second half was more their true identity. In retrospect, the Mariners made a good decision

[harmony]

That was a Mariners team that faded badly down the stretch and still won 89 games. The prevailing thought was that they markedly overachieved early and that the second half was more their true identity. In retrospect, the Mariners made a good decision

Indeed.

 

That 89-win Seattle team in 2018 had a remarkable Pythagorean record of 77-85:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2018.shtml

 

BTW this year 24-year-old Seattle lefthander Justus Sheffield has posted 1.3 fWAR in 44.1 innings while 31-year-old Yankee lefthander James Paxton has posted 0.3 fWAR in 20.1 innings.

Edited September 15, 2020 by harmony

[oldtimer]

I like most of your ideas, but I don't see how JD could be traded unless you're eating a ton of salary.

 

That is a big problem. Who would take the chance at over $20 mil for two years. We just might be stuck with an expensive player who can no longer come close to earning his keep. Don't get me wrog, He has done great things for the Sox and was worth the money in the past. He may just be aging and can't do much about it.

[Kimmi]

All true.

 

Don't encourage him.

[Kimmi]

Perhaps the Red Sox should acquire low-cost, short-term assets in hopes that some will build up trade value to swap for prospects at the 2021 deadline.

 

It's hard for a franchise like the Red Sox to step back for a(nother) year, but spending big money in hopes of fielding a competitive 2021 team might not be a wise investment.

 

We will acquire low cost, short term assets, but we won't be swapping them at the deadline. We will need them for our playoff run.

 

I agree that there should not be any big spending in 2021, but we're not taking a step back either.

[Kimmi]

They aren't going to go for a big splash this offseason. No way.

 

^^^

 

Waiting until after next season makes a lot more sense.

[Kimmi]

We heard that in relation to Mookie's FA market too. The money is there. The money will always be there.

 

I think the Dodgers are an outlier. I don't see other teams going crazy on free agents.

[Kimmi]

That is a big problem. Who would take the chance at over $20 mil for two years. We just might be stuck with an expensive player who can no longer come close to earning his keep. Don't get me wrog, He has done great things for the Sox and was worth the money in the past. He may just be aging and can't do much about it.

 

I'm not counting JD out, but thank goodness his contract was relatively short term.

[harmony]

We will acquire low cost, short term assets, but we won't be swapping them at the deadline. We will need them for our playoff run.

 

I agree that there should not be any big spending in 2021, but we're not taking a step back either.

That has been the familiar refrain of some Red Sox fans the last two seasons.

[Bellhorn04]

That has been the familiar refrain of some Red Sox fans the last two seasons.

 

Oh yeah, sure, we've all been talking about our playoff run this year.

[oldtimer]

I'm not counting JD out, but thank goodness his contract was relatively short term.

g term

 

Yes, and its an indication of the risk factor when taking on long term contracts. JDM may come back an earn his salary, but an aging player just may be facing a steep decline. Having over $40 mil tied up in a DH just limits us financially and makes the return to being competitive that much more difficult. The die may be cast with JDM and we have to hope he can recover his form in 2021 and 2022.

[harmony]

Oh yeah, sure, we've all been talking about our playoff run this year.

As recently as mid-July Kimmi wrote that "ERod will be like our trade deadline acquisition to put us over the top."

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19719-A-Realistic-View-at-2020-Part-II/page55

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19719-A-Realistic-View-at-2020-Part-II/page58

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Oh baby, we saw just how good T.Houck can be. He has that long delivery where he whips his arm around too violently. But at this point, you just let it go and hope you can get some big seasons out of him before his arm/elbow breaks down, probably sometime in his 30s. If the Red Sox can get 6-7 quality seasons out of him, it'll be worth it.

 

Behind Houck are two other stud pitching prospects in Mata and Groome. The Red Sox system continues to be undervalued.

 

The Red Sox 2021 starting staff:

E-Rod

T.Bauer (free agent)

N.Eovaldi

M.Perez

T.Houck

 

With C.Sale returning and with Groome and Mata providing minor league depth. If the Red Sox can fix N.Pivetta, they might want to trade Perez for a relief arm. Assuming C.Sale returns around mid-season, and let's say he is the C.Sale of old, the Red Sox will definitely have a championship caliber starting staff next season. The bullpen is a work in progress, however.

[Kimmi]

Yes, and its an indication of the risk factor when taking on long term contracts. JDM may come back an earn his salary, but an aging player just may be facing a steep decline. Having over $40 mil tied up in a DH just limits us financially and makes the return to being competitive that much more difficult. The die may be cast with JDM and we have to hope he can recover his form in 2021 and 2022.

 

I tend to think that a big part of this is mental. He began the season out of whack because he couldn't go to the video room. Baseball players are such creatures of habit that a break in routine like this really disrupts them. The longer the slump went on, the more it affected him mentally. I think he will recover.

[Kimmi]

That has been the familiar refrain of some Red Sox fans the last two seasons.

 

As recently as mid-July Kimmi wrote that "ERod will be like our trade deadline acquisition to put us over the top."

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19719-A-Realistic-View-at-2020-Part-II/page55

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19719-A-Realistic-View-at-2020-Part-II/page58

 

Geez, you should have just called me out by name in your first post, rather than saying "some Red Sox fans".

 

I'm not going to apologize or back down from being optimistic about my team. Missing the playoffs this year does not preclude making the playoffs next year. Don't rain on my parade.

[Kimmi]

Also, there is talk that the expanded playoffs will continue.

 

The Sox are in!

[jacksonianmarch]

Never been a question of stuff for Houck. He’s got a video game slider, wow. I like his fastball. I saw one K where he had a good 2 seamer.

 

Here’s the thing with Houck. He’s going to be death on righties. His side slinging delivery and lack of a controllable change will leave him vulnerable to lefties. My guess is he’s in the bigs for good, but the Sox should be protecting him a bit.

[Bellhorn04]

As recently as mid-July Kimmi wrote that "ERod will be like our trade deadline acquisition to put us over the top."

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19719-A-Realistic-View-at-2020-Part-II/page55

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19719-A-Realistic-View-at-2020-Part-II/page58

 

"As recently as mid-July", huh? You do realize that was before the season started?

[mvp 78]

Never been a question of stuff for Houck. He’s got a video game slider, wow. I like his fastball. I saw one K where he had a good 2 seamer.

 

Here’s the thing with Houck. He’s going to be death on righties. His side slinging delivery and lack of a controllable change will leave him vulnerable to lefties. My guess is he’s in the bigs for good, but the Sox should be protecting him a bit.

 

That's why he's working on a splitter.

[moonslav59]

I think penciling Houck in as our #5 SP'er for 2021 is extremely premature.

 

I love that he got off to a nice start, yesterday, but even if he finishes the season well, I would not count on anything from him, except SP'er depth and maybe some pen help. If he gives us more, it's a bonus.

 

I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but we've seen too many false hopes from our pitchers coming up through our system.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think penciling Houck in as our #5 SP'er for 2021 is extremely premature.

 

I love that he got off to a nice start, yesterday, but even if he finishes the season well, I would not count on anything from him, except SP'er depth and maybe some pen help. If he gives us more, it's a bonus.

 

I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but we've seen too many false hopes from our pitchers coming up through our system.

 

He’s a stuff guy. Stuff guys are tantalizing and if he becomes a stuff and control guy, watch out. I still think his arsenal best plays as a bulk reliever. I’m not entirely sure he will be able to face lineups multiple times through, and I seriously doubt he’d do well against a lefty loaded lineup. But he’s got better endurance than your typical reliever. In Bloom’s system, he’s going to be a bulk guy, I can almost guarantee it. If he hones his command and develops a split, then he will become more than that

[dgalehouse]

Maybe the farm wasn't as " decimated " as reported .

[oldtimer]

I tend to think that a big part of this is mental. He began the season out of whack because he couldn't go to the video room. Baseball players are such creatures of habit that a break in routine like this really disrupts them. The longer the slump went on, the more it affected him mentally. I think he will recover.

 

I hope that you are right, but player and all the rest of us age, some faster than others. We can't have a middle of the lineup guy be that unproductive next season. We probably can't trade him so all we have is hope for a turnaround. We have both Beni and JDM in that predicament but it isn't unique to them as quite a few top hitters have had poor seasons. JDM is late on fastballs and Beni was pathetic. I hate to see us going deep in the season with either of them not hitting. Produce or find another place. It's tough love but the competitiveness of the team counts on requiring all to do their share.

[oldtimer]

Never been a question of stuff for Houck. He’s got a video game slider, wow. I like his fastball. I saw one K where he had a good 2 seamer.

 

Here’s the thing with Houck. He’s going to be death on righties. His side slinging delivery and lack of a controllable change will leave him vulnerable to lefties. My guess is he’s in the bigs for good, but the Sox should be protecting him a bit.

 

If Houck is our 5th best pitching prospect, one has to ask why haven't we seen any of these guys before? We been putting up guys who were other teams rejects instead. Does a prospect have to turn 25 to get a look in the Red Sox organization? Not a very good statement about the Red Sox development program.