A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

I'd say the value of Price is hard to measure. DD left Bloom with the full contract. What Bloom did with it can be measured separately.

 

If Price sucks, Bloom "saved"us $15M a year. One can view the Price deal as part of the reason we traded Betts.

 

The fact is, DD left Bloom with the whole Price contract, and a hell of a lot more money on the books in Price, Sale and Eovaldi than what HRam, Pando & Castillo. Sure, those 3 gave us nothing and even negative value, but the value of the three DD left us vs the cost can be viewed as worse in net value, or at least close to the same.

 

There's a lot of X factor in the value of what DD left - especially with Sale, of course.

[Kimmi]

I think Dombrowski had a fine season in 2018. Hiring Cora, signing JDM to a reasonable deal, and then the deadline acquisitions of Eovaldi, Pearce and Kinsler.

 

Agree with this as well. As much as I disliked Dombrowski's early moves, I have given him due credit for his moves in 2018.

[Kimmi]

It was a spectacular year, and many of DD's "smaller moves" turned out to be as important, if not more important than the Kimbrel, Sale or Price moves.

 

DD deserves all the props he gets. That was the greatest season in Sox history, if you take away the emotion from the curse-breaking 2004 season.

 

To me, the cliff we are living, now, was well worth it. I'm glad we hired Theo, Ben and DD. I'm hopeful Bloom will join the club, but only time will tell.

 

I am far more inspired by those "smaller moves" than I am with the flashy ones. While I am very grateful for 2018, I can't go as far as saying that I'm glad we hired Dombrowski.

[Bellhorn04]

I have no doubt in my mind. That's how good the team was before Dombrowsi came on board.

 

It didn't have to be Ben. It could have been pretty much any GM.

 

But it wasn't really that good, as it was.

 

(Now I've done it.)

[Kimmi]

But it wasn't really that good, as it was.

 

(Now I've done it.)

 

But it really was. Now I'm not saying we didn't need pitching help. We did. But we did not have to go the extreme that Dombrowski went to get the team there.

 

Dombrowski is not some genius who magically transformed this team into a championship team. The overwhelming bulk of it was already in place.

[Bellhorn04]

But it really was. Now I'm not saying we didn't need pitching help. We did. But we did not have to go the extreme that Dombrowski went to get the team there.

 

Dombrowski is not some genius who magically transformed this team into a championship team. The overwhelming bulk of it was already in place.

 

He certainly wasn't a genius, no. He paid heavily for Sale, Price and Kimbrel.

 

His approach got us a championship followed by a c***f.

 

Another GM might have made completely different moves to get pitching, which might have worked or might not have.

 

The one thing I question, and which is still not really determinable, is how strong that farm was that Ben left, in terms of actual future MLB production.

[Bellhorn04]

Theo, Ben and DD brought us 4 titles. And yet the best homegrown starting pitcher they've given us so far is Buchholz. That's pretty weird and amazing.

[mvp 78]

I think Dombrowski had a fine season in 2018. Hiring Cora, signing JDM to a reasonable deal, and then the deadline acquisitions of Eovaldi, Pearce and Kinsler.

 

The only deal I'd do over is the Kinsler one.

[mvp 78]

Theo, Ben and DD brought us 4 titles. And yet the best homegrown starting pitcher they've given us so far is Buchholz. That's pretty weird and amazing.

 

Lester?

 

edit: Mike Port was GM, David Chadd was Director of Scouting

 

Theo was in the org, but unsure of how much he was doing during 2002.

Edited September 9, 2020 by mvp 78

[Bellhorn04]

Lester?

 

edit: Mike Port was GM, David Chadd was Director of Scouting

 

Theo was in the org, but unsure of how much he was doing during 2002.

 

Yeah, it's my understanding that was Port's. Maybe we should have kept him around as an advisor or something.

[Bellhorn04]

The only deal I'd do over is the Kinsler one.

 

And Buttrey is struggling right now.

[mvp 78]

And Buttrey is struggling right now.

 

That 3.54 FIP would look good in this pen right now.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, it's my understanding that was Port's. Maybe we should have kept him around as an advisor or something.

 

Starting pitching has been this team's bugaboo for a long time. Since the late 80's anyway.

[Bellhorn04]

That 3.54 FIP would look good in this pen right now.

 

His strikeout rate has plummeted though.

[notin]

His strikeout rate has plummeted though.

 

But he is still maintaining his FIP, which uses strikeouts as a factor...

[notin]

One thing we need to stop doing is letting the Guardians poach all the good local pitchers. Do some local scouting, Bloom!!

[moonslav59]

The only deal I'd do over is the Kinsler one.

 

I liked the Thornburg trade, at the time, but I'd do that one over, too.

[mvp 78]

His strikeout rate has plummeted though.

 

He's better than Walden.

 

He's better than Leyer.

 

He's better than Springs.

 

He's better than Kickham.

 

He's better than Triggs.

[moonslav59]

Theo, Ben and DD brought us 4 titles. And yet the best homegrown starting pitcher they've given us so far is Buchholz. That's pretty weird and amazing.

 

That's a very long stretch and a gaping hole in the system that doesn't seem to have been addressed.

[notin]

I liked the Thornburg trade, at the time, but I'd do that one over, too.

 

I don't fault DD for that one. He acquired a cheap controllable reliever for an expendable, easy-to-replace player and a good minor leaguer. It was actually an odd move from a guy known for ignoring bullpens.

 

That it did not work out due to injury is not Dombrowski's fault.

 

The Carson Smith trade was a good move at the time for largely the same reasons. Unless there were medical concerns DD ignored (which he is wont to do)...

[Bellhorn04]

He's better than Walden.

 

He's better than Leyer.

 

He's better than Springs.

 

He's better than Kickham.

 

He's better than Triggs.

 

The low bar effect.

[notin]

That's a very long stretch and a gaping hole in the system that doesn't seem to have been addressed.

 

 

It's also not exactly an easy hole to address. Using higher draft picks on pitchers can have mixed results. Trey Ball being a prime example. Ball was a flop, but he was hardly a reach as a bad draft pick. Every mock draft I saw had him in the 7 to 15 range in the first round. So the Sox likely took him at their only chance.

 

Ball just did not work out.

 

Groome looked like an excellent pick at the time, and was a definite feather in DD's cap. Until the injuries set in and basically kept him from pitching at all. Had Groome stayed healthy, he would probably be making his debut this season or next...

[notin]

The low bar effect.

 

Welcome to the 2020 Red Sox..

[Bellhorn04]

Welcome to the 2020 Red Sox..

 

Where anybody with an ERA below 6 is an upgrade...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Where anybody with an ERA below 6 is an upgrade...

 

The Sox bullpen (and openers) in the theme to "Jeers": "Where everybody is no names..."

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox bullpen (and openers) in the theme to "Jeers": "Where everybody is no names..."

 

Not bad!

[mvp 78]

The Sox bullpen (and openers) in the theme to "Jeers": "Where everybody is no names..."

 

Cliff!

[moonslav59]

I don't fault DD for that one. He acquired a cheap controllable reliever for an expendable, easy-to-replace player and a good minor leaguer. It was actually an odd move from a guy known for ignoring bullpens.

 

That it did not work out due to injury is not Dombrowski's fault.

 

The Carson Smith trade was a good move at the time for largely the same reasons. Unless there were medical concerns DD ignored (which he is wont to do)...

 

I don't fault him for it either, but I responding to trades "I'd take back."

[moonslav59]

It's also not exactly an easy hole to address. Using higher draft picks on pitchers can have mixed results. Trey Ball being a prime example. Ball was a flop, but he was hardly a reach as a bad draft pick. Every mock draft I saw had him in the 7 to 15 range in the first round. So the Sox likely took him at their only chance.

 

Ball just did not work out.

 

Groome looked like an excellent pick at the time, and was a definite feather in DD's cap. Until the injuries set in and basically kept him from pitching at all. Had Groome stayed healthy, he would probably be making his debut this season or next...

 

No, it's not easy, but other teams do it, and some teams, even winning ones like the Dodgers keep churning them out left and right.

 

You'd think we could have at least gotten lucky, once.

 

Maybe it's our development more than our picks.

 

We also have struck out on IFA pitchers. The last notable ones were DiceK and Okajima.

[mvp 78]

Do any of the current guys have a shot at reversing the bad luck?

 

Mata seems like he could be pretty good. Probably the best bet to stick in the rotation.

 

Groome is what he is, but a LHP that has his stuff can stick around for a while as long as he's durable. (Wade Miley comp is similar to Buchholz's career fWAR)

 

Song could be the best pitcher in the system, but we don't know what he'll look like after his service time.

 

Ward has good numbers in the minors, but will he get lit up once he advances? Potential bullpen arm based on his stuff.