A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Also Arroyo is out of options. Chavis is not...

[moonslav59]

Also Arroyo is out of options. Chavis is not...

 

That pretty much slots Arroyo into the three.

 

The choice comes down to do we go with 4 (13 pitchers) or just 3 (14 pitchers).

 

Chavis will get a chance at some point, but I feel a need to get his chance to shine over and done with as soon as possible.

 

If he continues to rake in ST'ing, and never ends up getting a long look, there will always be those lingering "what ifs?"

 

I've been rather down on Chavis from the start, but I have not given up on him. He has true power. He deserves at least one more long look. When, is the question, to me.

 

If everyone is healthy, this might be my starting 9 and bench of 4:

 

C Vaz

1B Dalbec

2B Chavis

3B Devers

SS Bogey

LF Cordero-Renfroe platoon

CF EHern

RF Verdugo

DH Martinez

 

Bench: Plawecki, Gonzalez, Arroyo, Renfroe or Cordero

Edited March 6, 2021 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That pretty much slots Arroyo into the three.

 

The choice comes down to do we go with 4 (13 pitchers) or just 3 (14 pitchers).

 

Chavis will get a chance at some point, but I feel a need to get his chance to shine over and done with as soon as possible.

 

If he continues to rake in ST'ing, and never ends up getting a long look, there will always be those lingering "what ifs?"

 

I've been rather down on Chavis from the start, but I have not given up on him. He has true power. He deserves at least one more long look. When, is the question, to me.

 

If everyone is healthy, this might be my starting 9 and bench of 4:

 

C Vaz

1B Dalbec

2B Chavis

3B Devers

SS Bogey

LF Cordero-Renfroe platoon

CF EHern

RF Verdugo

DH Martinez

 

Bench: Plawecki, Gonzalez, Arroyo, Renfroe or Cordero

 

Don't dismiss Santana's "Evil Ways"!

[moonslav59]

Don't dismiss Santana's "Evil Ways"!

 

He'd have to be added to the 40 man roster. I'm not saying I'm in love with our #40 or even 39, 38 or 37, but I think Chavis is ahead of Santana. Arauz might be, too.

 

Munoz and Santana are later in the season options.

[Kimmi]

Steals and speed in general were more valued in that era, especially through the mid-80s, because of Astroturf stadiums -- most of which were in the National League. The Royals had turf, and were the closest thing to an NL team in the AL. From '76-85, our slugging Sox had a winning record against Kansas City once in 10 years.

 

Speed is always an asset and should be valued. Steals, OTOH, were generally overrated. Most teams were actually doing themselves more harm than good by attempting so many steals, with a less than 70% success rate.

[Kimmi]

Do be we want sale pitching at all this year?

 

He should definitely not be rushed back, but if he's healthy and ready, then there isn't any reason for him not to pitch this year.

 

Even if the team is completely out of the running, I think Sale should return if he's cleared to go.

[oldtimer]

Speed is always an asset and should be valued. Steals, OTOH, were generally overrated. Most teams were actually doing themselves more harm than good by attempting so many steals, with a less than 70% success rate.

 

Speed is as much of an asset scoring from 1st on a hit and going 1st to 3rd. Steals are fine but have to be at a high percentage to be worth the risk.

[oldtimer]

He'd have to be added to the 40 man roster. I'm not saying I'm in love with our #40 or even 39, 38 or 37, but I think Chavis is ahead of Santana. Arauz might be, too.

 

Munoz and Santana are later in the season options.

 

I think you responded to a tongue-in-check reply referencing the rock band Santana and song Evil Ways (baby)

[oldtimer]

That pretty much slots Arroyo into the three.

 

The choice comes down to do we go with 4 (13 pitchers) or just 3 (14 pitchers).

 

Chavis will get a chance at some point, but I feel a need to get his chance to shine over and done with as soon as possible.

 

If he continues to rake in ST'ing, and never ends up getting a long look, there will always be those lingering "what ifs?"

 

I've been rather down on Chavis from the start, but I have not given up on him. He has true power. He deserves at least one more long look. When, is the question, to me.

 

If everyone is healthy, this might be my starting 9 and bench of 4:

 

C Vaz

1B Dalbec

2B Chavis

3B Devers

SS Bogey

LF Cordero-Renfroe platoon

CF EHern

RF Verdugo

DH Martinez

 

Bench: Plawecki, Gonzalez, Arroyo, Renfroe or Cordero

 

You may well be right although there is talk of a different lineup at Fenway with Verdugo in CF. I don't know enough about Cordero to evaluate him although another swing and miss guy on top of Renfroe and potentially Dalbec and Chavis might wind up as rally killers. It will be interesting to see how they choose.

 

 

It looks like Mata will take a while to recover from a slight muscle tear so he is removed from early consideration on the pitching side.

[Bellhorn04]

Speed is as much of an asset scoring from 1st on a hit and going 1st to 3rd. Steals are fine but have to be at a high percentage to be worth the risk.

 

Agree with both points 100%.

[harmony]

You may well be right although there is talk of a different lineup at Fenway with Verdugo in CF. I don't know enough about Cordero to evaluate him although another swing and miss guy on top of Renfroe and potentially Dalbec and Chavis might wind up as rally killers. It will be interesting to see how they choose.

 

 

It looks like Mata will take a while to recover from a slight muscle tear so he is removed from early consideration on the pitching side.

Bryan Mata reportedly has a slight UCL (ligament) tear, not a muscle tear:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2021/3/6/22316872/boston-red-sox-bryan-mata-injury-ucl-tear

 

Wishing Mata a speedy recovery.

Edited March 6, 2021 by harmony

[mvp 78]

Bryan Mata reportedly has a slight UCL ((ligament) tear, not a muscle tear:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2021/3/6/22316872/boston-red-sox-bryan-mata-injury-ucl-tear

 

Wishing Mata a speedy recovery.

Can’t stay healthy.

[notin]

Bryan Mata reportedly has a slight UCL (ligament) tear, not a muscle tear:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2021/3/6/22316872/boston-red-sox-bryan-mata-injury-ucl-tear

 

Wishing Mata a speedy recovery.

 

 

So... TJ surgery getting more likely...

[moonslav59]

I think you responded to a tongue-in-check reply referencing the rock band Santana and song Evil Ways (baby)

 

Santana had a fantastic 2019 season, so I assumed you felt he might be in the running.

 

He may very well get a chance in 2021, if he does well for a few weeks or months.

[mvp 78]

Santana had a fantastic 2019 season, so I assumed you felt he might be in the running.

 

He may very well get a chance in 2021, if he does well for a few weeks or months.

 

He’s in competition with Chavis for the COVID switcheroo.

[Kimmi]

Speed is as much of an asset scoring from 1st on a hit and going 1st to 3rd. Steals are fine but have to be at a high percentage to be worth the risk.

 

Exactly Oldtimer. Speedy runners have more value hitting in front of singles hitters than they have hitting in front of your homerun hitters.

[jacksonianmarch]

Put it in prospects, but Mata has a “slight” UCL tear. He’s got no timetable for return, but surgery doesn’t appear on the horizon. Very few players rehab these and avoid the knife. The only one I remember off the top of my head (Tanaka) was never the same after

[a700hitter]

Put it in prospects, but Mata has a “slight” UCL tear. He’s got no timetable for return, but surgery doesn’t appear on the horizon. Very few players rehab these and avoid the knife. The only one I remember off the top of my head (Tanaka) was never the same after

Tanaka had a very solid career with the Yankees and proved to be very durable.

[jacksonianmarch]

Tanaka had a very solid career with the Yankees and proved to be very durable.

 

He missed 3 months and came back without the high end velo he showed in year 1. When he debuted, he was untouchable. After his injury, he was good but never was that dominant again

[moonslav59]

He missed 3 months and came back without the high end velo he showed in year 1. When he debuted, he was untouchable. After his injury, he was good but never was that dominant again

 

He did have higher K rates in years afterwards and one season with a higher ERA+.

 

It's hard to judge how much better he was in the sample size you speak of, because ut was rather small, and it was before batters had a chance to learn how to hit him.

[jacksonianmarch]

True, there was some adjustment, but losing that 97 mph 4 seamer up in the zone really dropped the efficacy of his splitter. In his debut season, he was dynamite. Slider was far less than what it became. He was heat up and split down and he got weak contact

[moonslav59]

True, there was some adjustment, but losing that 97 mph 4 seamer up in the zone really dropped the efficacy of his splitter. In his debut season, he was dynamite. Slider was far less than what it became. He was heat up and split down and he got weak contact

 

Maybe, like many other pitchers, his other pitches improved greatly and he would have always been a better pitcher than a thrower.

 

It's always hard to know anything like this, for sure, but your point is well taken.

[Tedballgame]

Put it in prospects, but Mata has a “slight” UCL tear. He’s got no timetable for return, but surgery doesn’t appear on the horizon. Very few players rehab these and avoid the knife. The only one I remember off the top of my head (Tanaka) was never the same after

 

Thank you for that observation Debbie Downer.

[jacksonianmarch]

I heard an interview a few days back with Cora saying that the sox need to get better on their D. Then they let JBJ walk and move Verdugo to CF which is a clear defensive downgrade for 2021. You get Renfroe for LF who is at best equivalent to Beni defensively, who was no gold glover caliber guy to begin with. You move Verdugo from RF in Fenway, where he was decent last year and move him to CF opening RF for Cordero, who never can stay healthy, and has been a butcher in the OF in his limited time in the bigs. Cora then says Kike Hernandez is the "best defensive 2b in baseball" even though metrics say he isnt even an average second baseman, yet he is a very good OFer. Marwin Gonzalez is an equivalent 2b to Hernandez, so if you wanted your best defensive lineup, you move Hernandez to CF, Marwin to 2b, Verdugo to RF and keep Cordero away from his glove.

 

The moves made and the comments said are contradictory at this point. Hard to say what is standard ST bluster and what the actual plans are. FYI, Cora says he loves Kike as the 1 hitter so he can jump on early fastballs. As a pitcher, I would love to face a guy with a .313 career OBP leading off.

[moonslav59]

I heard an interview a few days back with Cora saying that the sox need to get better on their D. Then they let JBJ walk and move Verdugo to CF which is a clear defensive downgrade for 2021. You get Renfroe for LF who is at best equivalent to Beni defensively, who was no gold glover caliber guy to begin with. You move Verdugo from RF in Fenway, where he was decent last year and move him to CF opening RF for Cordero, who never can stay healthy, and has been a butcher in the OF in his limited time in the bigs. Cora then says Kike Hernandez is the "best defensive 2b in baseball" even though metrics say he isnt even an average second baseman, yet he is a very good OFer. Marwin Gonzalez is an equivalent 2b to Hernandez, so if you wanted your best defensive lineup, you move Hernandez to CF, Marwin to 2b, Verdugo to RF and keep Cordero away from his glove.

 

The moves made and the comments said are contradictory at this point. Hard to say what is standard ST bluster and what the actual plans are. FYI, Cora says he loves Kike as the 1 hitter so he can jump on early fastballs. As a pitcher, I would love to face a guy with a .313 career OBP leading off.

 

I'd prefer EHern in CF and Arryo-Chavis-Marwin at 2B, but Cordero in CF fixes the LF and RF issues. He also may not be as bad as you make him out to be. He has a small sample size and the top skills needed to be a plus CF'er.

[notin]

I heard an interview a few days back with Cora saying that the sox need to get better on their D. Then they let JBJ walk and move Verdugo to CF which is a clear defensive downgrade for 2021. You get Renfroe for LF who is at best equivalent to Beni defensively, who was no gold glover caliber guy to begin with. You move Verdugo from RF in Fenway, where he was decent last year and move him to CF opening RF for Cordero, who never can stay healthy, and has been a butcher in the OF in his limited time in the bigs. Cora then says Kike Hernandez is the "best defensive 2b in baseball" even though metrics say he isnt even an average second baseman, yet he is a very good OFer. Marwin Gonzalez is an equivalent 2b to Hernandez, so if you wanted your best defensive lineup, you move Hernandez to CF, Marwin to 2b, Verdugo to RF and keep Cordero away from his glove.

 

The moves made and the comments said are contradictory at this point. Hard to say what is standard ST bluster and what the actual plans are. FYI, Cora says he loves Kike as the 1 hitter so he can jump on early fastballs. As a pitcher, I would love to face a guy with a .313 career OBP leading off.

 

Actually many scouts like Cordero’s defense. His metrics are based on 600 innings spread out 3 positions and 4 seasons and tell very little at this point. Clint Frazier’s metrics are worse and based on larger samples, but because some clearly stoned BBWAA member finagled a Gold Glove nomination for him, Yankee fans think he’s actually good out there...

[jacksonianmarch]

Frazier got better, and clearly Franchy can as well, but you cannot preach defense then clearly build a team that doesn’t presently have it without sounding like an idiot

[moonslav59]

Frazier got better, and clearly Franchy can as well, but you cannot preach defense then clearly build a team that doesn’t presently have it without sounding like an idiot

 

Didn’t Cora say he wanted to focus on defense. That might have meant in terms of drills and practice - not roster construction, which is more on the GM?

[a700hitter]

Didn’t Cora say he wanted to focus on defense. That might have meant in terms of drills and practice - not roster construction, which is more on the GM?

Maybe he was talking about wearing masks.

[moonslav59]

Maybe he was talking about wearing masks.

 

Good one!