A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Spend whatever it takes to try and win every year.

 

Good thing every team doesn't do that. Ticket prices would be $1,000 for a nosebleed seat.

 

The problem is spending has long term repercussions. Paying players like Price and JDM as they age their way out of contributing doesn’t mean the team doesn’t spend.

 

We just saw Colorado extend their homegrown superstar and then trade him anyway. Is that really any better? (Actually it’s worse, as the players they got back are arguably lesser players than Verdugo and Downs.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I know the studies show you don't put your best hitter 3rd, but aren't Bogey and Verdugo thought to be better than Devers?

 

(I happen to think Devers will bust out in 2021, but based on 2020, he's maybe our 3rd best hitter. Based on 2018-2019, JD could be ranked higher.

 

How's this:

 

1. Verdugo RF

2. Bogey SS

3. JD DH

4. Devers 3B

5. Renfroe/Cordero LF

6. Dalbec 1B

7. EHern CF

8. Vaz C

9. Arroyo/Chavis 2B

 

 

 

 

 

I want a guarantee that Devers gets up in the first inning. Of anyone in the lineup, Rafie has the potential to crush one at any time, and grabbing a quick-strike lead just seems to matter more in the modern age of bullpen game plans. I especially want him batting in the first in double-headers (seven inning games)!

[moonslav59]

OPS from 2018-2020 (200+ PAs):

.938 JD

.907 Bogey

.832 Devers

.812 Verdugo

.772 Renfroe

.754 Cordero

.749 Hernandez

.733 Munoz

.728 Chavis

.727 Vaz

.719 Arroyo

 

2019-2020 (60+ PAs):

.959 Dalbec

.921 Bogey

.884 Devers

.870 JD

.827 Verdugo

.798 Vaz

.773 Cordero

.749 Renfroe

.728 Chavis

.710 Arroyo

.707 EHern

.707 Plawecki

.692 Munoz

 

[notin]

I do think Verdugo-Bogaerts-Devers is the best top of the lineup....

[notin]

I know the studies show you don't put your best hitter 3rd, but aren't Bogey and Verdugo thought to be better than Devers?

 

(I happen to think Devers will bust out in 2021, but based on 2020, he's maybe our 3rd best hitter. Based on 2018-2019, JD could be ranked higher.

 

How's this:

 

1. Verdugo RF

2. Bogey SS

3. JD DH

4. Devers 3B

5. Renfroe/Cordero LF

6. Dalbec 1B

7. EHern CF

8. Vaz C

9. Arroyo/Chavis 2B

 

 

 

 

 

So far, Hernandez appears to be slated for 2b. While I still think the Sox need an OF, they’re probably better off starting both Renfroe (LF) and Cordero (CF) over Arroyo or Chavis.

 

Are people really that sold on Arroyo? He wasn’t really that good last year, and he’s been a disappointment around the league for a while now...

[moonslav59]

I want a guarantee that Devers gets up in the first inning. Of anyone in the lineup, Rafie has the potential to crush one at any time, and grabbing a quick-strike lead just seems to matter more in the modern age of bullpen game plans. I especially want him batting in the first in double-headers (seven inning games)!

 

He's not all that fast, so I'm not sure about the one or two slot. That's one reason I had him 3rd in my original line-up.

 

If you like the lefty-righty thingee...

 

L Verdugo

R Bogey

L Devers

R JD

L Cordero/R Renfroe

R Dalbec

R Hern

R Vaz

R Arroyo/ S Gonzalez/ R Chavis (hits RHPs better)

 

[moonslav59]

So far, Hernandez appears to be slated for 2b. While I still think the Sox need an OF, they’re probably better off starting both Renfroe (LF) and Cordero (CF) over Arroyo or Chavis.

 

Are people really that sold on Arroyo? He wasn’t really that good last year, and he’s been a disappointment around the league for a while now...

 

Maybe more sold than Cordero as a FT CF option.

 

Perhaps, EHern plays CF vs LHPs- as a kind of platoon with Cordero & Arroyo:

 

v RHP

LF: Renfroe

CF: Cordero

2B: EHern

 

v LHP

LF: Renfroe

CF: EHern

2B: Arroyo

 

[moonslav59]

I do think Verdugo-Bogaerts-Devers is the best top of the lineup....

 

...and JD seems like the perfect 4 or 5 hitter.

[Bellhorn04]

...and JD seems like the perfect 4 or 5 hitter.

 

He is.

[moonslav59]

He is.

 

Assuming he regains most of what he had before 2020.

[Sox75]

The problem is spending has long term repercussions. Paying players like Price and JDM as they age their way out of contributing doesn’t mean the team doesn’t spend.

 

We just saw Colorado extend their homegrown superstar and then trade him anyway. Is that really any better? (Actually it’s worse, as the players they got back are arguably lesser players than Verdugo and Downs.)

 

We're now counting JDM's relatively short contract as a problem, after 1 down messed up Covid partial year?

 

His contract is hardly the problem!

 

Price?

Sale?

Rusney Castillo?

Eovaldi?

 

& not so long ago...

Pablo

Hanley

Manny

 

JDM isn't even near a problem contract. He's signed through next year, and should have a big bounce back season or 2 ....

[Bellhorn04]

Assuming he regains most of what he had before 2020.

 

He will.

[moonslav59]

He will.

 

Agreed.

 

I also think Devers and Bogey are poised for monster years.

 

Verdugo should improve.

 

I'm hoping Vaz stays near .790. EHern should do fine.

 

Dalbec, Cordero & Renfroe are the wild cards.

 

Arroyo, Chavis and Marwin may not be needed all that much.

[jad]

I never said that was your intent or anybodies intent.

 

Feel free to keep blaming Henry for not spending. It looks silly, to me, and my intent was to let you know my opinion. I never expected to change yours.

 

(I was actually responding to your very words: "Dissing Henry is not winning me over in any way". Which I and I assume others would interpret to imply: 'there are arguments that COULD win me over')

[moonslav59]

(I was actually responding to your very words: "Dissing Henry is not winning me over in any way". Which I and I assume others would interpret to imply: 'there are arguments that COULD win me over')

 

I've already said I'd be okay with going over the tax line for someone like Odorizzi, assuming he is healthy. Maybe, that argument could win me over, as it would be a move as much for 2022 and 2023 as 2021. (I still think putting off the next reset by another year holds more value than signing Odorizzi and/or JBJ.)

 

Saying the highest or second highest spending GM over the last two decades should spend more does not make sense to me, at all.

 

The guy has been a godsend to long, suffering Sox fans.

[moonslav59]

Current Sox Players Splits since 2017:

 

v RHP

.911 JD M

.874 Devers

.855 Bogey

.810 Verdugo

.786 Cordero

.782 Gonzalez

.740 Chavis

.716 Munoz

.715 Plawecki

.705 Vazquez

.704 Renfroe

.691 EHern

.678 Arroyo

 

v LHPs

1.155 JD M (best in MLB)

.907 Renfroe

.868 Bogey

.811 EHern

.795 Vaz

.788 Verdugo

.780 Munoz

.743 Marwin G

.726 Devers

.699 Chavis

.689 Plawecki

.597 Arroyo

.573 Cordero

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kimmi]

I know the studies show you don't put your best hitter 3rd, but aren't Bogey and Verdugo thought to be better than Devers?

 

(I happen to think Devers will bust out in 2021, but based on 2020, he's maybe our 3rd best hitter. Based on 2018-2019, JD could be ranked higher.

 

How's this:

 

1. Verdugo RF

2. Bogey SS

3. JD DH

4. Devers 3B

5. Renfroe/Cordero LF

6. Dalbec 1B

7. EHern CF

8. Vaz C

9. Arroyo/Chavis 2B

 

 

Before Beni was traded, I had a lineup as follows:

 

Verdugo

Bogaerts

Beni

JD

Devers

Renfroe

Dalbec

Vazquez

Kike

 

I am not sure who I would bat 3rd now. I'll have to investigate a little more.

 

That said, I would feel comfortable switching #1, 2, 4, 5 in pretty much any order, though I don't think JD felt comfortable batting 2nd last year. I would also be good switching 5-9 in pretty much any order.

[Kimmi]

I do think Verdugo-Bogaerts-Devers is the best top of the lineup....

 

No to Devers batting 3rd, although it doesn't really make that much of a difference.

[moonslav59]

Before Beni was traded, I had a lineup as follows:

 

Verdugo

Bogaerts

Beni

JD

Devers

Renfroe

Dalbec

Vazquez

Kike

 

I am not sure who I would bat 3rd now. I'll have to investigate a little more.

 

That said, I would feel comfortable switching #1, 2, 4, 5 in pretty much any order, though I don't think JD felt comfortable batting 2nd last year. I would also be good switching 5-9 in pretty much any order.

 

Maybe you'd like this...

 

1. Verrdugo

2. Bogey

3. Renfroe/Cordero

4. Devers

5. JD

6. Dalbec

7. EHern

8. Vaz

9. Arroyo or Cordero/Renfroe (off handed)

[notin]

Obviously only Cora’s opinion matters, but I like

 

Verdugo

Bogaerts

Devers

Martinez

Renfroe

Dalbec

Cordero

Hernandez

Vazquez

 

And Arroyo on the bench where he belongs.

[a700hitter]

Obviously only Cora’s opinion matters, but I like

 

Verdugo

Bogaerts

Devers

Martinez

Renfroe

Dalbec

Cordero

Hernandez

Vazquez

And Arroyo on the bench where he belongs.

Bottom 5 spots are very weak

[moonslav59]

Bottom 5 spots are very weak

 

Our 9 hitter has a .798 OPS the last 2 years. That might be the best in MLB.

 

While Dalbec, Renfroe and Cordero may be big question marks, their numbers look very good.

 

EHern as the 8th hitter might be top 6-8 in all of baseball.

[moonslav59]

 

And Arroyo on the bench where he belongs.

 

Agreed, and Renfroe vs RHPs is likely still better than Arroyo.

 

Until we know more, Cordero should probably never start vs a LHP. So, one could call it an Arroyo-Cordero platoon with EHern flipping from 2B to CF. Gonzalez & Chavis might get in ob the act, too.

 

IMO, finding a way to platoon Renfroe and Cordero in LF would be best, but playing Arroyo too much is not a good idea.

 

Assuming Devers, Bogey, Verdugo, JD, Vaz, EHern & Dalbec play FT or near FT, the last 2 slots (LF/CF & 2B) will likely be divided based on splits:

 

L-R Splits since 2017:

 

v RHP

.786 Cordero

.782 Marwin Gonzalez

.740 Chavis

.704 Renfroe

.678 Arroyo

 

v LHPs

.907 Renfroe

.743 Marwin G

.699 Chavis

.597 Arroyo

.573 Cordero

 

(Marwin's numbers are inflated from 2017.)

 

 

Edited February 22, 2021 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

How do you have the lineup set that way? Scratch that, I hope they follow your advice. Batting order determines who gets more ABs on the year. Kike Hernandez has been awful offensively for 2 years running. As a matter of fact, if he hadn't had a single outlier season in 2018, his tag line would be weak bat, versatile glove. His walk rate has disappeared. He is gonna hit some homers, but no way is he a better hitter than Vazquez.

 

Franchy Cordero has been on the Padres (before they were good) and the Royals (after they were good) and he couldnt stay on the field. Yes, he has talent. WMP had talent too, but he just couldnt consistently hit enough to be worth it. This guy is another talented flame out of a prospect. Penciling him in above Vaz is almost criminal. You have no idea if he is even going to be physically available by opening day. He makes Stanton look like an iron man. Also, Cordero has a little issue with his in game play. The guy strikes out 35% of the time. He makes Judge look like a contact hitter.

 

Renfroe is interesting. I had to go back and look at his stats. Holy hell, he cannot make contact. Like at all. Career 28% K rate. Career BA of .228, which btw he hasnt even reached since 2018. He's a true three outcome player with a whole lot more of one of the three outcomes (K's) than the others.

 

Vazquez is head and shoulders above these three guys in total offensive game and should not be residing in the bottom of your order

[moonslav59]

How do you have the lineup set that way? Scratch that, I hope they follow your advice. Batting order determines who gets more ABs on the year. Kike Hernandez has been awful offensively for 2 years running. As a matter of fact, if he hadn't had a single outlier season in 2018, his tag line would be weak bat, versatile glove. His walk rate has disappeared. He is gonna hit some homers, but no way is he a better hitter than Vazquez.

 

Franchy Cordero has been on the Padres (before they were good) and the Royals (after they were good) and he couldnt stay on the field. Yes, he has talent. WMP had talent too, but he just couldnt consistently hit enough to be worth it. This guy is another talented flame out of a prospect. Penciling him in above Vaz is almost criminal. You have no idea if he is even going to be physically available by opening day. He makes Stanton look like an iron man. Also, Cordero has a little issue with his in game play. The guy strikes out 35% of the time. He makes Judge look like a contact hitter.

 

Renfroe is interesting. I had to go back and look at his stats. Holy hell, he cannot make contact. Like at all. Career 28% K rate. Career BA of .228, which btw he hasnt even reached since 2018. He's a true three outcome player with a whole lot more of one of the three outcomes (K's) than the others.

 

Vazquez is head and shoulders above these three guys in total offensive game and should not be residing in the bottom of your order

 

You sure know how to seek out each Sox player's biggest weakness and act like that's all there is to that player.

 

So what, if Renfroe K's a lot. He's stuck around MLB long enough to prove he belongs. He hits about 40 Hrs and 30 doubles per 650 PAs.

 

He has great splits vs LHPs and has been over .700 vs RHPs.

 

True, Cordero is a huge question mark. Who knows what we get with him?

 

As for Kike, his 2018 "outlier" season was not his best, so maybe a little more research might help.

 

He had an .801 OPS from 2014-2015 (352 PAs) and he had a .752 OPS from 2017-2019 (1113 PAs). Once could easily argue his .607 OPS in 2016 (216 PAs) and .680 OPS in 2020 (148 PAs) were bigger outliers than 2015 and 2018, but you will see what you want to see.

 

I see a decent .740 hitter, which is pretty good for 2B.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 22, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

 

Until we know more, Cordero should probably never start vs a LHP. So, one could call it an Arroyo-Cordero platoon with EHern flipping from 2B to CF. Gonzalez & Chavis might get in ob the act, too.

 

IMO, finding a way to platoon Renfroe and Cordero in LF would be best, but playing Arroyo too much is not a good idea.

 

 

 

Until we know what? How is Cordero ever going to learn to hit LHP if he “never” get to start? His career right now consists of 72 plate vs LHP spread out over 4 seasons. That’s meaningless data...

[mvp 78]

How do you have the lineup set that way? Scratch that, I hope they follow your advice. Batting order determines who gets more ABs on the year. Kike Hernandez has been awful offensively for 2 years running. As a matter of fact, if he hadn't had a single outlier season in 2018, his tag line would be weak bat, versatile glove. His walk rate has disappeared. He is gonna hit some homers, but no way is he a better hitter than Vazquez.

 

Franchy Cordero has been on the Padres (before they were good) and the Royals (after they were good) and he couldnt stay on the field. Yes, he has talent. WMP had talent too, but he just couldnt consistently hit enough to be worth it. This guy is another talented flame out of a prospect. Penciling him in above Vaz is almost criminal. You have no idea if he is even going to be physically available by opening day. He makes Stanton look like an iron man. Also, Cordero has a little issue with his in game play. The guy strikes out 35% of the time. He makes Judge look like a contact hitter.

 

Renfroe is interesting. I had to go back and look at his stats. Holy hell, he cannot make contact. Like at all. Career 28% K rate. Career BA of .228, which btw he hasnt even reached since 2018. He's a true three outcome player with a whole lot more of one of the three outcomes (K's) than the others.

 

Vazquez is head and shoulders above these three guys in total offensive game and should not be residing in the bottom of your order

 

Franchy's problem is health. If he could stay on the field for a full season, he could be an interesting guy. Legit 30/30 guy.

 

Wily Mo wasn't a high injury risk and was ultimately one dimensional and never really showed it on the field.

[jacksonianmarch]

Franchy's problem is health. If he could stay on the field for a full season, he could be an interesting guy. Legit 30/30 guy.

 

Wily Mo wasn't a high injury risk and was ultimately one dimensional and never really showed it on the field.

 

Franchy has speed, which WMP didnt have. But WMP was an exit velo darling before it was en vogue. When he hit a ball, it would go forever. He just couldnt hit balls. Franchy has the same low contact issue.

[jacksonianmarch]

You sure know how to seek out each Sox player's biggest weakness and act like that's all there is to that player.

 

So what, if Renfroe K's a lot. He's stuck around MLB long enough to prove he belongs. He hits about 40 Hrs and 30 doubles per 650 PAs.

 

He has great splits vs LHPs and has been over .700 vs RHPs.

 

True, Cordero is a huge question mark. Who knows what we get with him?

 

As for Kike, his 2018 "outlier" season was not his best, so maybe a little more research might help.

 

He had an .801 OPS from 2014-2015 (352 PAs) and he had a .752 OPS from 2017-2019 (1113 PAs). Once could easily argue his .607 OPS in 2016 (216 PAs) and .680 OPS in 2020 (148 PAs) were bigger outliers than 2015 and 2018, but you will see what you want to see.

 

I see a decent .740 hitter, which is pretty good for 2B.

 

 

 

 

 

How do you bat a .740 hitting 2b ahead of Vaz?

[mvp 78]

Franchy has speed, which WMP didnt have. But WMP was an exit velo darling before it was en vogue. When he hit a ball, it would go forever. He just couldnt hit balls. Franchy has the same low contact issue.

 

Aaron Judge: 31.4 k% career

Wily Mo Pena: 30.3 k% career