A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

JBJ was the consensus second-best centerfielder in this winter's free agency... but that was only from talking heads and typing fingers in the industry (not fan forums).

 

Right, and here's what MLBTR predicted for contracts:

 

Springer 5/125

JBJ 2/16

 

A big gap between first and second...

[notin]

Right, and here's what MLBTR predicted for contracts:

 

Springer 5/125

JBJ 2/16

 

A big gap between first and second...

 

Just 3 years and $109 mill. Or one Trevor Bauer...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just 3 years and $109 mill. Or one Trevor Bauer...

 

Wonder why Odorizzi, the consensus second-best free agent starter, hasn't signed yet...

[moonslav59]

Wonder why Odorizzi, the consensus second-best free agent starter, hasn't signed yet...

 

Seems strange, when everyone needs pitching.

[notin]

Wonder why Odorizzi, the consensus second-best free agent starter, hasn't signed yet...

 

No pen. That’s actually the full story...

[jacksonianmarch]

He overestimated his market. He’s coming off a terrible season. He’s also not a front line guy. At this point, you take a 1 yr deal

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No pen. That’s actually the full story...

 

But we signed a guy named Hiro for the pen. At least Bloom didn't sign a Villain.

[notin]

But we signed a guy named Hiro for the pen. At least Bloom didn't sign a Villain.

 

Like if he signed Villar for 2b?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Like if he signed Villar for 2b?

 

No, I think the translation for Villar is like village or hamlet. Some may view Villar as a veritable fortress around the bag...

[moonslav59]

If we signed Odorizzi, someone like Pivetta or Houck would bolster the pen.

 

Some even suggested making Eovaldi the closer.

 

Adding pitching always helps.

 

Maybe GMs saw something in Odorizzi's 2020 season that scared them away. They don't always shy away from someone over one bad 60 game stretch.

[notin]

No, I think the translation for Villar is like village or hamlet. Some may view Villar as a veritable fortress around the bag...

 

No. He takes lots of money and then fails to return good baseball. He’s a thief and a Villar...

[notin]

If we signed Odorizzi, someone like Pivetta or Houck would bolster the pen.

 

Some even suggested making Eovaldi the closer.

 

Adding pitching always helps.

 

Maybe GMs saw something in Odorizzi's 2020 season that scared them away. They don't always shy away from someone over one bad 60 game stretch.

 

Absolutely. Bring in Bradley and Odorizzi (or Porcello).

 

The Sox just reset. Why worry about going over?

[Kimmi]

Happy that you’re excited for the season. I am too. I think you’re the only one who thinks this Sox team is playoff bound, but everyone starts 0-0. Stranger things have happened. But please don’t disappear when the Sox tank. It’s standard board etiquette to pull up old predictions and rub them in our faces. Do be around for that!

 

Ha. I would expect nothing less from you than to honor 'board etiquette'.

 

I'll see you in October!

[moonslav59]

Absolutely. Bring in Bradley and Odorizzi (or Porcello).

 

The Sox just reset. Why worry about going over?

 

I've answered this before.

 

The sooner we go over- the sooner we will have to reset.

 

I am thinking our chances of winning in 3, 4 or 5 years will be better than 2020's chances, so staying under now, buys one more year before the next reset- in theory.

 

I realize the whole system could change next year, but it appears the Sox are thinking they want to stay under, this winter. I'm guessing their long term plans out weigh the short term ones, at this moment in time.

 

I hoping that changes, next winter. I'm pretty confident it will.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m giving a prediction for the labor dispute

 

MLB will get to keep their Lux tax, but rookie player control will be capped at 5 years

[Bellhorn04]

Absolutely. Bring in Bradley and Odorizzi (or Porcello).

 

The Sox just reset. Why worry about going over?

 

I'm with you all the way. It seems like there's a golden opportunity for us to increase our chances in 2021, and with Odorizzi, also put another good piece in place for 2022/2023.

 

Like you, I'm starting to wonder about Odorizzi's medicals...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I've answered this before.

 

The sooner we go over- the sooner we will have to reset.

 

I am thinking our chances of winning in 3, 4 or 5 years will be better than 2020's chances, so staying under now, buys one more year before the next reset- in theory.

 

I realize the whole system could change next year, but it appears the Sox are thinking they want to stay under, this winter. I'm guessing their long term plans out weigh the short term ones, at this moment in time.

 

I hoping that changes, next winter. I'm pretty confident it will.

 

 

For all we know, the longterm plan may include making a run at Juan Soto in five years. In the meantime, the Sox could have Big Papi building a rapport with the budding billionaire, extolling the virtues of a passionate New England fanbase (they're both from Santo Domingo). And then Boston can pay him more money than Mookie, who may have earned a few more rings and awards -- even though Soto will never be the runner or defender that Betts is.

[Bellhorn04]

For all we know, the longterm plan may include making a run at Juan Soto in five years.

 

That would be the Worst. Plan. Ever.

 

It would be like the way I used to play chess - looking three and four moves ahead and getting checkmated before we made it that far. I was a lousy chess player.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That would be the Worst. Plan. Ever.

 

It would be like the way I used to play chess - looking three and four moves ahead and getting checkmated before we made it that far. I was a lousy chess player.

 

I was just using Soto as an example. But we all saw the big whiteboards with players names ranked in columns on Moneyball. You just know these clever analytics departments have boards all over the conference room, arranged chronologically, adjacent to each other, with year-by-year projected lineups and rotations, based on player contract years, ETAs of prospects, and potential free agent signings and/or trade targets. If they didn't, they'd be less prepared than those that do...

 

I bet some intern's job is to periodically update the boards, rearranging names according to the latest transactions data (or like when the police update their crime family charts after a boss gets locked up or whacked).

[moonslav59]

For all we know, the longterm plan may include making a run at Juan Soto in five years. In the meantime, the Sox could have Big Papi building a rapport with the budding billionaire, extolling the virtues of a passionate New England fanbase (they're both from Santo Domingo). And then Boston can pay him more money than Mookie, who may have earned a few more rings and awards -- even though Soto will never be the runner or defender that Betts is.

 

I'm not sure what this has to do with my point.

 

Reset (again) in 2021 or reset in 2024?

 

Which year will we have a better chance at winning it all, in theory?

[jad]

5GGOF75 wasn't being ironic? (This discussion is way beyond my pay grade. I mean, resetting is nice, just like making out to no particular purpose was nice in high school--although I don't remember thinking WOW! in four years, I might be doing the same thing again.)

 

I just hope one day to have an owner or GM who thinks: damn, I want to win and entertain my fan base: THEREFORE I will find and sign the best players I can.)

[notin]

For all we know, the longterm plan may include making a run at Juan Soto in five years. In the meantime, the Sox could have Big Papi building a rapport with the budding billionaire, extolling the virtues of a passionate New England fanbase (they're both from Santo Domingo). And then Boston can pay him more money than Mookie, who may have earned a few more rings and awards -- even though Soto will never be the runner or defender that Betts is.

 

I hope not. That’s like planning your retirement solely around winning MegaMlions.

 

As much as Soto would be awesome, that involves planning around unknowns that the Sox cannot control. What if, 4 years from now, Soto signs a massive 10 year extension with Washington? Then what? Switch the focus to Wander Franco?

 

A GM shouldn’t plan around players controlled by other teams. Only the ones he can control himself.

[moonslav59]

5GGOF75 wasn't being ironic? (This discussion is way beyond my pay grade. I mean, resetting is nice, just like making out to no particular purpose was nice in high school--although I don't remember thinking WOW! in four years, I might be doing the same thing again.)

 

I just hope one day to have an owner or GM who thinks: damn, I want to win and entertain my fan base: THEREFORE I will find and sign the best players I can.)

 

Dissing Henry is not winning me over in any way, shape or form.

 

We have the best owner we've ever had, by far. He's reset the tax several times- almost like clockwork, and the system has been a huge success.

 

To be frank, this whole"Gimmie, gimmie, gimmie and gimmie now," philosophy turns me off.

 

We are not the Dodgers, and although Henry could choose to spend like them, who has more rings?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I hope not. That’s like planning your retirement solely around winning MegaMlions.

 

As much as Soto would be awesome, that involves planning around unknowns that the Sox cannot control. What if, 4 years from now, Soto signs a massive 10 year extension with Washington? Then what? Switch the focus to Wander Franco?

 

A GM shouldn’t plan around players controlled by other teams. Only the ones he can control himself.

 

I'm not disagreeing, but just assuming GMs and front offices have groups of players targeted beyond the now, with plan As, plan Bs, plan Cs, etc.

 

I can't imagine an organization saying, "We can't afford to spend this winter, but next year we can buy what we need", without eyeing specific possibilities and especially, player availability. This is not the same as like shopping, say, for clothes. For example, fans can always buy pants... maybe we'll get one more year out of those worn jeans, and upgrade next year. But if GMs wait too long, there may only be shorts left for sale. They have to look ahead (which is why we're getting suspicious something is wrong with the unsigned Odorizzi).

[jad]

Dissing Henry is not winning me over in any way, shape or form.

 

We have the best owner we've ever had, by far. He's reset the tax several times- almost like clockwork, and the system has been a huge success.

 

To be frank, this whole"Gimmie, gimmie, gimmie and gimmie now," philosophy turns me off.

 

We are not the Dodgers, and although Henry could choose to spend like them, who has more rings?

 

 

As for winning someone over, NO ONE in the history of sports boards or social media generally, has ever advanced an argument that changed anyone's mind about anything, nor has anyone advanced an argument that was intended to do that.

[moonslav59]

I'm not disagreeing, but just assuming GMs and front offices have groups of players targeted beyond the now, with plan As, plan Bs, plan Cs, etc.

 

I can't imagine an organization saying, "We can't afford to spend this winter, but next year we can buy what we need", without eyeing specific possibilities and especially, player availability. This is not the same as like shopping, say, for clothes. For example, fans can always buy pants... maybe we'll get one more year out of those worn jeans, and upgrade next year. But if GMs wait too long, there may only be shorts left for sale. They have to look ahead (which is why we're getting suspicious something is wrong with the unsigned Odorizzi).

 

I'm sure Bloom & Co. are eyeing some possible additions from next winter's market, but to me, it was also about how weak this winter's market was, especially in our highest need areas.

 

SP: Only Bauer was a true difference maker. Does he look any better than Price did, when we signed him?

 

CF: Springer just did not seem like the type of guy to go large and long on. Maybe, I'm wrong.

 

RP: There were a few nice names, but not anyone that knocks me over, and besides, spending large on RP'ers does not always guarantee success.

 

We didn't need Realmutto.

 

Are the next two years any better?

 

from MLB.com

 

Notable free agents for 2021-22

Catcher: Salvador Perez, Travis d'Arnaud, Christian Vazquez (club option), Buster Posey (club option)

First base: Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Brandon Belt

Second base: Starlin Castro

Third base: Nolan Arenado (opt-out), Kris Bryant, Eduardo Escobar, Kyle Seager (club option), José Ramírez (club option)

Shortstop: Francisco Lindor, Javier Báez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story

Outfield: Michael Conforto, Tommy Pham, Starling Marte, Kyle Schwarber, Eddie Rosario, Corey Dickerson, Nick Castellanos (opt-out), Charlie Blackmon (player option), Andrew McCutchen (club option)

Designated hitter: Jorge Soler, Khris Davis, J.D. Martinez (opt-out)

Starting pitchers: Noah Syndergaard, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Lance Lynn, Eduardo Rodriguez, Dylan Bundy, Lance McCullers Jr., Johnny Cueto (club option), Carlos Martínez (club option)

Relievers: Kenley Jansen, Jeurys Familia, Corey Knebel, Archie Bradley, Raisel Iglesias, Adam Ottavino

 

If all the players in line for free agency in the 2021-22 offseason actually reach the open market, it might be one of the best classes ever.

 

Start with the shortstops … wow. Lindor, Báez, Correa, Seager and Story are five of the brightest young stars in the game today. All five of them would be free agents in their primes -- Correa will be 27 in 2022, Lindor and Seager 28, and Báez and Story 29.

 

In addition to Báez, the Cubs could see Bryant, Rizzo and Schwarber all reach free agency. On top of all that, there's the Braves' Freeman, who's been one of the top first basemen in the NL for years. And if Arenado opts out of his Rockies deal, there's another big name right there.

 

The starting-pitcher class is also a star-studded group, though Syndergaard missed all of 2020 following Tommy John surgery, and Verlander is expected to be out through '21 after undergoing the same procedure.

 

Notable free agents for 2022-23

Catcher: Willson Contreras, Gary Sánchez, Christian Vazquez

First base: José Abreu, Yuli Gurriel, Josh Bell, Miguel Sanó (club option), Max Muncy (club option)

Second base: Ketel Marte (club option)

Third base: Evan Longoria (club option), José Ramírez (club option)

Shortstop: Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Miguel Rojas, Tim Anderson (club option)

Outfield: Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, Byron Buxton, Brandon Nimmo, Andrew Benintendi, Andrew McCutchen, Lorenzo Cain, Adam Duvall, Justin Upton, Wil Myers (club option), Charlie Blackmon (player option), A.J. Pollock (player option), Kevin Kiermaier (club option), Whit Merrifield (club option),

Designated hitter: J.D. Martinez

Starting pitchers: Jacob deGrom (opt-out), Chris Sale (opt-out), Aaron Nola (club option), Sonny Gray (club option), Mike Clevinger, José Berríos, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino (club option), Carlos Martínez (club option), Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd, Michael Fulmer, Joe Musgrove, Zach Eflin, Johnny Cueto

Relievers: Aroldis Chapman, Edwin Díaz, Zack Britton, Ryan Pressly, Seth Lugo, Taylor Rogers, Chad Green, Craig Kimbrel, Will Smith (club option)

 

[moonslav59]

As for winning someone over, NO ONE in the history of sports boards or social media generally, has ever advanced an argument that changed anyone's mind about anything, nor has anyone advanced an argument that was intended to do that.

 

I never said that was your intent or anybodies intent.

 

Feel free to keep blaming Henry for not spending. It looks silly, to me, and my intent was to let you know my opinion. I never expected to change yours.

[notin]

5GGOF75 wasn't being ironic? (This discussion is way beyond my pay grade. I mean, resetting is nice, just like making out to no particular purpose was nice in high school--although I don't remember thinking WOW! in four years, I might be doing the same thing again.)

 

I just hope one day to have an owner or GM who thinks: damn, I want to win and entertain my fan base: THEREFORE I will find and sign the best players I can.)

 

You think Henry doesn’t spend?

 

Lucky for you that you didn’t grow up in Pittsburgh...

[moonslav59]

You think Henry doesn’t spend?

 

Lucky for you that you didn’t grow up in Pittsburgh...

 

Spend whatever it takes to try and win every year.

 

Good thing every team doesn't do that. Ticket prices would be $1,000 for a nosebleed seat.

[moonslav59]

With all due respect, I can't get past Hernandez batting leadoff. And Devers should not bat 3rd.

 

I know the studies show you don't put your best hitter 3rd, but aren't Bogey and Verdugo thought to be better than Devers?

 

(I happen to think Devers will bust out in 2021, but based on 2020, he's maybe our 3rd best hitter. Based on 2018-2019, JD could be ranked higher.

 

How's this:

 

1. Verdugo RF

2. Bogey SS

3. JD DH

4. Devers 3B

5. Renfroe/Cordero LF

6. Dalbec 1B

7. EHern CF

8. Vaz C

9. Arroyo/Chavis 2B