A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Kimmi]

You do know this is the realistic thread, right? This isn’t the puppy dog, fairy tales and unicorn fart thread.

 

The players rejected expanded playoffs and the season should move ahead as it was in 2019. There will be 3 division winners (not the Sox). There are two other teams aside from the division winner that are head and shoulders better than the Sox. Then you’ve got the A’s and Astros in the West, where one of the teams will win the division and the other will be better than the Sox. In the central, the Guardians still have the pitching to be dangerous as a WC with the CWS and Twins as in window teams with one of them likely to win the division. You’re buried and likely to be well below .500

 

The Sox will have to be one of the top 5 teams in the AL to make the playoffs.

 

Fangraphs currently has the Sox ranked 7th in the AL in terms of WAR. Not quite top 5, but not far off.

 

More importantly:

 

Fangraphs currently has the Sox ranked 5th in the AL in terms of win % at .543.

 

Davenport currently has the Sox ranked 4th in the AL in terms of wins at 87.

 

I don't have access to PECOTA projections, unfortunately.

 

 

I realize that projections must be taken with a grain of salt, but the projections still reflect what the teams look like on paper. People are not happy with the less than flashy moves that Bloom made this offseason, and they are equating those underrated moves with the idea that the team will not be very good. The team is a lot better than most people are giving them credit for.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Sox were the fourth worst team in baseball last year. They get ERod back, albeit unknown in his capacity. You get Richards, who was an excellent add, IMO, more for a mid season pump and dump than actual top level production in Boston. The pen has seen no top level improvement beyond adding Ottavino. Sale is coming to the rescue after the battle is over. You’ve added Hernandez yet lost Bradley, which is a considerable downgrade overall.

 

There are so many variables here that if every one of them went right, you could be at or near .500. If half of less than half of them go right, then you’re in the top 10 in the draft again. The Sox are dealing with two issues. Their roster isn’t good and their division is the toughest division in baseball.

[Bellhorn04]

Why do people think Bradley is coming back when every single article about him says they’re not?

 

That one's on Sox 75 LOL...I'm not sure he read the article he linked very closely.

[notin]

That one's on Sox 75 LOL...I'm not sure he read the article he linked very closely.

 

I don’t think he read it at all...

[notin]

You do know this is the realistic thread, right? This isn’t the puppy dog, fairy tales and unicorn fart thread.

 

The players rejected expanded playoffs and the season should move ahead as it was in 2019. There will be 3 division winners (not the Sox). There are two other teams aside from the division winner that are head and shoulders better than the Sox. Then you’ve got the A’s and Astros in the West, where one of the teams will win the division and the other will be better than the Sox. In the central, the Guardians still have the pitching to be dangerous as a WC with the CWS and Twins as in window teams with one of them likely to win the division. You’re buried and likely to be well below .500

 

Yes that’s the Yankee Off-season Thread, where all the chronically injured players magically recover simultaneously, and using their combined pure hearts and good will, come together to form a giant cohesive unstoppable baseball team. Or am I thinking of Voltron?

[Bellhorn04]

Jackso is right about one thing - the AL East is going to be a meat grinder. We're going to need guys like Ryan Weber to cover some garbage innings in blowouts...

[notin]

Jackso is right about one thing - the AL East is going to be a meat grinder. We're going to need guys like Ryan Weber to cover some garbage innings in blowouts...

 

As long as it is someone like Ryan Weber, and not Ryan Weber.

 

If I had to guess, I think that job falls currently on Matt Andriese....

[Bellhorn04]

As long as it is someone like Ryan Weber, and not Ryan Weber.

 

If I had to guess, I think that job falls currently on Matt Andriese....

 

Weber finished the season strongly last year. He'll be back this year, better than ever.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes that’s the Yankee Off-season Thread, where all the chronically injured players magically recover simultaneously, and using their combined pure hearts and good will, come together to form a giant cohesive unstoppable baseball team. Or am I thinking of Voltron?

 

The Yanks have a far, far better team. I’ve acknowledged the injury issues, but their offense is dynamite and that pen is dynamic. The rotation is led by one of the best in all of baseball. I can definitely foresee some rough patches, but the Yanks will be the division champs and I think you all know it

[Bellhorn04]

The Yanks have a far, far better team. I’ve acknowledged the injury issues, but their offense is dynamite and that pen is dynamic. The rotation is led by one of the best in all of baseball. I can definitely foresee some rough patches, but the Yanks will be the division champs and I think you all know it

 

Go Jays!

[harmony]

Why do people think Bradley is coming back when every single article about him says they’re not?

Bold prediction: Jackie Bradley Jr. and David Price will reunite on the New York Mets.

 

Or not.

 

Think about the financial implications of the Trevor Bauer sweepstakes.

 

Or not ... again.

[Bellhorn04]

Bold prediction: Jackie Bradley Jr. and David Price will reunite on the New York Mets.

 

Or not.

 

Think about the financial implications of the Trevor Bauer sweepstakes.

 

Or not ... again.

 

Yes, it would be no surprise to see the Dodgers move Price now.

 

And Dodgers fans will be saying "David, we hardly knew ye."

Edited February 6, 2021 by Bellhorn04

[moonslav59]

The Sox were the fourth worst team in baseball last year. They get ERod back, albeit unknown in his capacity. You get Richards, who was an excellent add, IMO, more for a mid season pump and dump than actual top level production in Boston. The pen has seen no top level improvement beyond adding Ottavino. Sale is coming to the rescue after the battle is over. You’ve added Hernandez yet lost Bradley, which is a considerable downgrade overall.

 

There are so many variables here that if every one of them went right, you could be at or near .500. If half of less than half of them go right, then you’re in the top 10 in the draft again. The Sox are dealing with two issues. Their roster isn’t good and their division is the toughest division in baseball.

 

You are basing you whole position on a 60 game season.

 

If you really believe we were the 4th worst team in MLB, on paper, last year, then I can see why you might doubt we have any chance, but I do not think you are that short-sighted.

 

Your complete write-off of Sale shows your bias.

 

You have turned something that is unlikely into something that is impossible.

 

While many point to 2013 as that magical season where so many players had career years (actually not true), the 2021 season does not need "career years" from anyone.

 

We just need a few players to return to near their 2018, 2019 or 2020 season, and since only Ottavino is over 33 years old, it's not a stretch to have some optimism about making the playoffs.

 

You mentioned a few teams better than the Sox, on paper, but some of those teams got worse from 2020- the season you put so much value in.

 

If Sale comes back at a 3/4th level starter in July, that could be a huge plus. ERod & Richards replace guys like Mazza. Ottavino is a plus. We lost no significant pitchers.

 

EHern & Renfroe vs JBJ is questionable, but certainly not a clear step backwards, and besides, had we kept JBJ, you'd be projecting a decline from him anyway due to his age and loss of a step on defense.

 

Devers dipped a little, last year, but did well near the end. He could and even should provide a big boost to 2021. He could even have a career year. Bogey is peak prime. Verdugo is just reaching peak prime. You cat like it's impossible for 2-3 of our players to have great years, when JD, Verdugo, Bogey, ERod, Sale, Richards (maybe not so recent) and Devers have already had very good to great years very recently and guys like Beni, Vaz, Ottavino, Barnes and Renfroe have had very nice seasons very recently.

 

It won't take a miracle to make the playoffs- just a return to or near prior form of enough current players. Our core of good to great players is bigger than you think.

 

Now, can too many of these guys NOT return to or near form? Of course, and that is what you are saying is a slam dunk occurrence. Fine, that's what is expected of a Yankee fan, but deep down, I think you know our chances are better than you give us credit for.

[moonslav59]

Jackso is right about one thing - the AL East is going to be a meat grinder. We're going to need guys like Ryan Weber to cover some garbage innings in blowouts...

 

Weber is pretty far down on my list, and it also looks like Bloom might be keeping some budget space available for a deadline move.

 

Here's my depth chart, assuming no more additions:

 

SP

Sale (60 day IL projected)

ERod

Eovaldi

Richards

Perez

Pivetta

Houck

Whitlock

Gossett, Hart, Kent, Weber

Mata, Seabold

 

RP

Ottavino

Barnes

DHern

Brasier

Taylor

Andriese

Brice (out of options)

Valdez

(a starter not in the current rotation)

Brewer

Walden

Gonsalves

Weber, Hall, Springs, Poyner

 

In terms of expected IP for 2021, assuming reasonable health?

 

Starters:

170 ERod, Eovaldi, Richards

150 Perez, Pivetta

130 Houck

90 Sale

 

It is highly likely we use more than 7 SP'er for 5 or more starts. I hope Weber does not get 5, but maybe Whitlock, Mata or Seabold do.

 

RP'ers

70+ DHern

65 Ottavino, Barnes

55 Brasier, Taylor

40 Andriese, Valdez, Brice (Whitlock, if not used as SP'er)

 

Brewer, Walden and maybe someone like Weber might get a lot of IP'd here, but I'm still hoping Bloom adds a pen arm, soon.

[moonslav59]

The Yanks have a far, far better team. I’ve acknowledged the injury issues, but their offense is dynamite and that pen is dynamic. The rotation is led by one of the best in all of baseball. I can definitely foresee some rough patches, but the Yanks will be the division champs and I think you all know it

 

On paper, your pen blows ours away- and other teams, too.

 

Your rotation has a ton of question marks after Cole- about as many Q's as the Sox starters. Sure, you have more young starters with a chance to make an input, but most are unproven at the big level or have some other major issue going on.

 

Your line-up looks great, but don't short-change the Sox line-up that despite have big down years from JD, Devers and Beni, still placed pretty highly in your all important 2020 season.

[moonslav59]

Yes, it would be no surprise to see the Dodgers move Price now.

 

And Dodgers fans will be saying "David, we hardly knew ye."

 

I would put the odds at better than 50-50 he's traded. The Dodgers are famous for doing these types of deals.

[moonslav59]

Bold prediction: Jackie Bradley Jr. and David Price will reunite on the New York Mets.

 

Or not.

 

Think about the financial implications of the Trevor Bauer sweepstakes.

 

Or not ... again.

 

Maybe they just sign Odorizzi, who will be cheaper than Price.

 

This brings up a point I made about liking the Price dump to the Dodgers.

 

Who here would prefer Price at $30M/2 over Oddorizzi at $40M/3?

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Maybe they just sign Odorizzi, who will be cheaper than Price.

 

This brings up a point I made about liking the Price dump to the Dodgers.

 

Who here would prefer Price at $30M/2 over Oddorizzi at $40M/3?

 

 

Not me. It's worth the extra $10M (of someone else's money) to hire Jake and never have to watch DP pitch again without a pitch clock, condemn reporters like a cult leader from a podium, or call his own press conference to disrespect Hall of Famers.

[harmony]

Maybe they just sign Odorizzi, who will be cheaper than Price.

 

This brings up a point I made about liking the Price dump to the Dodgers.

 

Who here would prefer Price at $30M/2 over Oddorizzi at $40M/3?

 

Steamer and ZiPS project Jake Odorizzi with 2021 WAR of 1.7 in 152 innings and 1.8 in 119.2 innings.

 

Steamer and ZiPS project David Price with 2021 WAR of 1.5 in 126 innings and 1.1 in 89 innings.

 

Odorizzi is four-and-a-half years younger than Price.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jake-odorizzi/6397/stats?position=P

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/david-price/3184/stats?position=P

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe they just sign Odorizzi, who will be cheaper than Price.

 

This brings up a point I made about liking the Price dump to the Dodgers.

 

Who here would prefer Price at $30M/2 over Oddorizzi at $40M/3?

 

 

I would take Odorizzi, sure. But there's no guarantee he pitches better than Price.

 

I felt kind of neutral about offloading half of Price's remaining contract. Didn't like it much or hate it much. It was kind of a footnote to what really mattered in the trade.

[moonslav59]

I would take Odorizzi, sure. But there's no guarantee he pitches better than Price.

 

I felt kind of neutral about offloading half of Price's remaining contract. Didn't like it much or hate it much. It was kind of a footnote to what really mattered in the trade.

 

I feel the same, and part of the appeal of dumping Price's contract was the belief that we'd use the budget space to build up more quickly. So far, we haven't really seen spending like the days of old.

[notin]

I would take Odorizzi, sure. But there's no guarantee he pitches better than Price.

 

I felt kind of neutral about offloading half of Price's remaining contract. Didn't like it much or hate it much. It was kind of a footnote to what really mattered in the trade.

 

Maybe the Sox should deal for Price and have LA pay a portion of what is left on the deal. Already for committed for half, so he does represent a cheap upgrade at this point...

[moonslav59]

Maybe the Sox should deal for Price and have LA pay a portion of what is left on the deal. Already for committed for half, so he does represent a cheap upgrade at this point...

 

Nope.

 

Not going over the tax line for Price. The Dodgers aren't paying $20M.

[notin]

Nope.

 

Not going over the tax line for Price. The Dodgers aren't paying $20M.

 

Is it that different between going over for Price as opposed to going over for Odorizzi?

[moonslav59]

Is it that different between going over for Price as opposed to going over for Odorizzi?

 

Hell, YES!

[Kimmi]

The Sox were the fourth worst team in baseball last year. They get ERod back, albeit unknown in his capacity. You get Richards, who was an excellent add, IMO, more for a mid season pump and dump than actual top level production in Boston. The pen has seen no top level improvement beyond adding Ottavino. Sale is coming to the rescue after the battle is over. You’ve added Hernandez yet lost Bradley, which is a considerable downgrade overall.

 

There are so many variables here that if every one of them went right, you could be at or near .500. If half of less than half of them go right, then you’re in the top 10 in the draft again. The Sox are dealing with two issues. Their roster isn’t good and their division is the toughest division in baseball.

 

If everything goes right, we'll be on our way to another ring. If more goes right than goes wrong, we will contend for the playoffs.

[Kimmi]

The Yanks have a far, far better team. I’ve acknowledged the injury issues, but their offense is dynamite and that pen is dynamic. The rotation is led by one of the best in all of baseball. I can definitely foresee some rough patches, but the Yanks will be the division champs and I think you all know it

 

I have not denied that the Yanks will likely win the division. That does not preclude the Sox making it to the playoffs.

 

It will be kind of fun when the Sox eliminate the Yanks in the postseason.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe the Sox should deal for Price and have LA pay a portion of what is left on the deal. Already for committed for half, so he does represent a cheap upgrade at this point...

 

No retreads for you.

[moonslav59]

I'm done with Price.

[Swiharts Ghost]

I kinda like Price honestly. Erod Price Sale is still one helluva Playoff Rotation .Have them subsidize say 6 million this year ? I’d do it and then get Mazara on the cheap ? Trade Benny to Mets z?