A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

I didn't think he'd get $7M or two years...

 

 

Sox Sign Enrique Hernandez

 

I'm glad he's onboard.

 

And hey, we did something!

[moonslav59]

I'm pretty sure we'll be adding a CF'er before day one, but here's an interesting question.

 

Which alignment do you prefer?

 

A)

LF: Renfroe/Beni platoon

CF: E. Hernandez

RF: Verdugo

2B: Arroyo/Chavis

 

LF: Beni

CF: Verdugo

RF: Renfroe

2B: E Hernandez

 

He could end up seeing significant time at 2B and CF, but it looks like he was signed to play mostly 2B.

 

A lot may depend on how well or poorly Arroyo, Chavis, Beni & Renfroe do, this season.

[notin]

I'm pretty sure we'll be adding a CF'er before day one, but here's an interesting question.

 

Which alignment do you prefer?

 

A)

LF: Renfroe/Beni platoon

CF: E. Hernandez

RF: Verdugo

2B: Arroyo/Chavis

 

LF: Beni

CF: Verdugo

RF: Renfroe

2B: E Hernandez

 

He could end up seeing significant time at 2B and CF, but it looks like he was signed to play mostly 2B.

 

A lot may depend on how well or poorly Arroyo, Chavis, Beni & Renfroe do, this season.

 

Maybe Benintendi will not be in Boston...

[harmony]

From Thursday's chat with FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski:

12:39

San Damnborski: How long will the Red Sox suck? And why am I giggling madly that the answer is longer than a year?

 

12:39

Dan Szymborski: Certainly 2021. I don’t know just how long the Red Sox are going to go this route.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-1-12-21/

[oldtimer]

Maybe Benintendi will not be in Boston...

 

I'd say that is likely and that we add an outfielder in his place. I doubt if JBJ is back, but if we can give $7 mil for two to Hernandez, maybe we can pay JBJ competitively.

[mvp 78]

Kiké 2b

Chavis/Beni platoon LF

Sign CFer

Verdugo RF

[mvp 78]

I'd say that is likely and that we add an outfielder in his place. I doubt if JBJ is back, but if we can give $7 mil for two to Hernandez, maybe we can pay JBJ competitively.

 

Not with only 23M left to spend on pitching AND CF.

[Kimmi]

Funny. Us older folks have trouble with huge contracts, having come from a time where houses cost one hundredth of what they cost today.

 

My mom didn't have much growing up. Her family struggled to have enough food at times. She became extremely frugal as a result. Because of her penny-pinching habits, hard work from both her and my dad, and good investing, she is now very well off. She can afford, within reason, anything she wants. However, she remains as frugal as ever. I am talking that she won't buy something for $1.50 when she can get it elsewhere for $1.00. Old habits die hard.

[Kimmi]

Did she have you on a week to week basis for you allowance?

 

It's funny that when it comes to her grandkids, she has no problem spending money.

[Kimmi]

From Thursday's chat with FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski:

 

12:39

San Damnborski: How long will the Red Sox suck? And why am I giggling madly that the answer is longer than a year?

 

12:39

Dan Szymborski: Certainly 2021. I don’t know just how long the Red Sox are going to go this route.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-1-12-21/

 

Is Dan Szymborski having a conversation with his alter ego?

[Kimmi]

Kiké 2b

Chavis/Beni platoon LF

Sign CFer

Verdugo RF

 

^^^This. I want it to be a defensive minded CFer, though Kike should help our overall defense.

[notin]

Kiké 2b

Chavis/Beni platoon LF

Sign CFer

Verdugo RF

 

Chavis/Beni? Is Renfroe getting cut?

[notin]

Not with only 23M left to spend on pitching AND CF.

 

And only $9mill for a RP and CF if they sign Odorizzi.

[Bellhorn04]

And only $9mill for a RP and CF if they sign Odorizzi.

 

If we assume JH refuses to pay any tax this year...

[notin]

Not with only 23M left to spend on pitching AND CF.

 

We could get a defensive CF for free if we dealt Benintendi to Atl for Inciarte (Salary: $9mil, but $6.1mill AAV).

 

It's actually not a fair trade, but Atlanta could pitching something to balance it out. Like a freakin' pitcher? Despite it not working out on BTV, I'd consider Inciarte and Kyle Wright for Benintendi...

[notin]

If we assume JH refuses to pay any tax this year...

 

Well, can we at least assume he will want to enter the period of contention with a clean slate for luxury tax years?

[Bellhorn04]

Well, can we at least assume he will want to enter the period of contention with a clean slate for luxury tax years?

 

Maybe. Who knows? The current CBA expires at the end of 2021 so we don't know what the rules will be for 2022.

[notin]

Maybe. Who knows? The current CBA expires at the end of 2021 so we don't know what the rules will be for 2022.

 

That is the only saving grace.

 

From Henry's POV, my thoughts would be I do not mind paying a luxury tax if I am also making a boatload of $$$$ and winnings some trophies. But I do not want to pay it until that happens.

 

Of course, as you said, Hernandez might have a $7mill AAV, but if enough of it is deferred, it can come down substantially.

[Bellhorn04]

That is the only saving grace.

 

From Henry's POV, my thoughts would be I do not mind paying a luxury tax if I am also making a boatload of $$$$ and winnings some trophies. But I do not want to pay it until that happens.

 

Another way to look at it, though:

 

Right now our tax payroll is about $186 mill, with $24 mill to spend before hitting $210 mill.

 

If we spend $29 mill, we're $5 mill over, which would result in $1 mill tax.

 

So the tax would represent a miniscule fraction of total cost.

 

Obviously it would also put us into the Year 2 tax rates for 2022, if the CBA doesn't make any fundamental changes to the structure.

[notin]

Another way to look at it, though:

 

Right now our tax payroll is about $186 mill, with $24 mill to spend before hitting $210 mill.

 

If we spend $29 mill, we're $5 mill over, which would result in $1 mill tax.

 

So the tax would represent a miniscule fraction of total cost.

 

Obviously it would also put us into the Year 2 tax rates for 2022, if the CBA doesn't make any fundamental changes to the structure.

 

The miniscule tax is not the issue. The issue is the escalating penalties as the payroll increase. Pending he new CBA..

[moonslav59]

The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5.

 

They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions.

 

Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.

 

If Beni goes, they're signing Rosario. Cora likes him, and he's half the cost of Ozuna.

 

Kiké 2b

Chavis/Beni platoon LF

Sign CFer

Verdugo RF

 

Renfroe/Beni platoon in LF

[Bellhorn04]

The miniscule tax is not the issue. The issue is the escalating penalties as the payroll increase. Pending he new CBA..

 

Hopefully the new CBA comes up with a better system than this one, where spending a few extra mill on your team can be seen as a disaster.

[a700hitter]

Kiké 2b

Chavis/Beni platoon LF

Sign CFer

Verdugo RF

I don’t think another CFer is in the plans.

[moonslav59]

We could get a defensive CF for free if we dealt Benintendi to Atl for Inciarte (Salary: $9mil, but $6.1mill AAV).

 

It's actually not a fair trade, but Atlanta could pitching something to balance it out. Like a freakin' pitcher? Despite it not working out on BTV, I'd consider Inciarte and Kyle Wright for Benintendi...

 

These kinds of deals make too much sense to not happen.

 

I seriously doubt we spend enough to get JBJ, when our pitching staff is so lacking- this of course, assumes we stay under or near the lux tax line. If we decide to go over, signing JBJ or Pillar along with Odorizzi and a decent RP'er or two shouldn't put us too far over.

 

I do think Henry would like us to start 2022 with a clean lux tax slate, but that's just my opinion.

 

There is no way anybody can look at our pitching staff and not gasp:

 

Sale (ready by July?)

Eovaldi (always on the IL)

ERod (huge health questions)

Perez (5th starter type)

Pivetta (5th starter type w upside)

Houck (innings will be limited)

Barnes (not bad)

Brasier (some hope remains)

D Hern (need to stop walking someone every 1-2 innings)

Taylor (questionable)

Andriese (who?)

Brice and Whitlock (not headliners)

 

AAA:

Mazza, Seabold, Mata, Weber, Hart, Gossett

Brewer, Bazardo, Payamps, Gonsalves, Feltman, Shawaryn, Grotz

 

Every slot is a question mark or barely above weak.

Edited January 23, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

I don’t think another CFer is in the plans.

 

I don’t think Bradley is anymore, but maybe someone like Marisnick or Almora might be...

[a700hitter]

I don’t think Bradley is anymore, but maybe someone like Marisnick or Almora might be...

We have 3 CFers and no big bat in the OF. I’d rather get Ozuna than another light hitting CFer.

[notin]

We have 3 CFers and no big bat in the OF. I’d rather get Ozuna than another light hitting CFer.

 

The only guy on the Sox who might be a CF is Verdugo. I don’t like Benintendi in CF, and not sure who h the he third CF is.

 

I’d love to add Ozuna. Per MLBTR, the Sox are “interested” in him. But that doesn’t mean much...

[notin]

We have 3 CFers and no big bat in the OF. I’d rather get Ozuna than another light hitting CFer.

 

If the Sox move Benintendi, an OF of Ozuna-Verdugo-Renfroe works for me.

 

It does seem odd that the Sox would acquire a platoon bat for Benintendi and then trade Benintendi anyway...

[a700hitter]

The only guy on the Sox who might be a CF is Verdugo. I don’t like Benintendi in CF, and not sure who h the he third CF is.

 

I’d love to add Ozuna. Per MLBTR, the Sox are “interested” in him. But that doesn’t mean much...

kike

[Bellhorn04]

The only guy on the Sox who might be a CF is Verdugo. I don’t like Benintendi in CF, and not sure who h the he third CF is.

 

I’d love to add Ozuna. Per MLBTR, the Sox are “interested” in him. But that doesn’t mean much...

 

Maybe it means JH doesn't care that much about the tax this year.