A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Plus, the few that signed for the "winner" or "home town team" they want to play with, usually did NOT leave a heap of money on the table. either.

 

Or if they did, they signed prior to free agency, thus eliminating the risk that an injury later on would reduce their earning potential...

[moonslav59]

Or if they did, they signed prior to free agency, thus eliminating the risk that an injury later on would reduce their earning potential...

 

One of the biggest "hometown discounts" I remember was Joe Mauer with MN. I thought he left a lot of money on the table.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm a bit cynical, I think most players take the highest dollar offer.

 

I'm reasonably sure Boston was not David Price's first pick of destinations. But $217 million overcame that quite nicely.

 

Last offseason there were reportedly 3 teams bidding on Gerrit Cole: Yankees, Dodgers and Angels. The Dodgers and Angels hung in there at 8 years * 36 mill. The Yankees bumped it to 9 years and won the auction. That's how Cole picked his favorite destination.

 

You're helping to make my points the past two days a bit clearer. In order for the last place, rebuilding Red Sox to recruit a top player, they are going to have to outbid all other clubs, especially those that have a better chance of winning. For many reasons -- some we think we're sure of -- Boston has basically said and shown they're not going to do that.

 

And if we believe what many actual players say of wanting to win, it is a Catch-22 because really good players help a team get really good, and thus attract more really good players.

[notin]

One of the biggest "hometown discounts" I remember was Joe Mauer with MN. I thought he left a lot of money on the table.

 

And yet he still signed for $184,000,000 in the truest of all of the "hometown discounts".

 

Jered Weaver probably left a lot more money on the table when he signed his extension with the Angels. But neither of these players was a free agent when they signed...

[Bellhorn04]

One of the biggest "hometown discounts" I remember was Joe Mauer with MN. I thought he left a lot of money on the table.

 

I also remember Kerry Wood signing with the Cubs in 2011 for what was reportedly much less than other offers, because he really liked his time with the Cubs.

[notin]

You're helping to make my points the past two days a bit clearer. In order for the last place, rebuilding Red Sox to recruit a top player, they are going to have to outbid all other clubs, especially those that have a better chance of winning. For many reasons -- some we think we're sure of -- Boston has basically said and shown they're not going to do that.

 

And if we believe what many actual players say of wanting to win, it is a Catch-22 because really good players help a team get really good, and thus attract more really good players.

 

 

Not sure how that counters your (and Mike Lowell's) point. The Sox (or any team, winner or not) are going to have to outbid all the other teams to get any free agent. Gerrit Cole did not sign with the Yankees because they had a better chance to win; he signed with them because it was the best and most lucrative deal...

[moonslav59]

You're helping to make my points the past two days a bit clearer. In order for the last place, rebuilding Red Sox to recruit a top player, they are going to have to outbid all other clubs, especially those that have a better chance of winning. For many reasons -- some we think we're sure of -- Boston has basically said and shown they're not going to do that.

 

And if we believe what many actual players say of wanting to win, it is a Catch-22 because really good players help a team get really good, and thus attract more really good players.

 

I think next winter, they will make to choice to go above the value they assign a great player, just to make sure we get him.

 

Now is not the time, for 2 reasons:

 

1) We are not one great player away from contending for a ring.

2) Bauer, Springer and Realmutto are not the types of players you go large and long on.

[notin]

I also remember Kerry Wood signing with the Cubs in 2011 for what was reportedly much less than other offers, because he really liked his time with the Cubs.

 

How good were the other offers?

 

Wood signed as a free agent with the Cubs three times, but all three were one year deals. As he was the most frequently DL'd player in all of MLB during his career, not sure how many other teams expressed much interest...

[notin]

I think next winter, they will make to choice to go above the value they assign a great player, just to make sure we get him.

 

Now is not the time, for 2 reasons:

 

1) We are not one great player away from contending for a ring.

2) Bauer, Springer and Realmutto are not the types of players you go large and long on.

 

Well, you take the great player when he is available. Springer, Bauer and Realmuto might not be the right guys, which is fine if the Sox pass. But for a player they want, signing him and building around him once he is here is certainly acceptable.

 

The 2000 Red Sox were not one Manny Ramirez away from a title, and did not even make the post-season in his first two seasons on the team, and in fact won fewer games his first year in Boston than they did the year before without him. But he was still the right signing and they certainly managed to work from that point on to put the right team around him...

[Bellhorn04]

You're helping to make my points the past two days a bit clearer. In order for the last place, rebuilding Red Sox to recruit a top player, they are going to have to outbid all other clubs, especially those that have a better chance of winning.

 

The perennially contending Yankees had to give Gerrit Cole a contract that shattered the previous record deal for pitchers, to get him to come to NY.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think next winter, they will make to choice to go above the value they assign a great player, just to make sure we get him.

 

Now is not the time, for 2 reasons:

 

1) We are not one great player away from contending for a ring.

2) Bauer, Springer and Realmutto are not the types of players you go large and long on.

 

People keep saying #1, even though no one has ever said otherwise. But a team doesn't have to be one player away in a rebuild to pursue the best available talent.

 

You may be right about #2, but is any free agent a year from now worth a bigger investment by the Red Sox? I'd argue a few middle infielders may be more worthy, but they don't fill a major need by Boston... unless it's a splash -- someone who can make an impact on and off the field, change the clubhouse culture, and put actual fans in the seats.

 

When the Rangers signed ARod they were a losing team in fourth place. He was great, but his chemistry didn't enhance the team enough.

 

The 2002 Marlins also finished with a losing record in 4th place, and the following January signed future Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriquez. That signing seemed odd, since IRod replaced Charles Johnson, also a Gold Glove All-Star catcher. Then the Fish won the World Series.

 

When Dombrowski signed IRod for fourth-place loser Detroit in '04 it seemed even stranger... but two years later he was in another World Series.

[moonslav59]

Well, you take the great player when he is available. Springer, Bauer and Realmuto might not be the right guys, which is fine if the Sox pass. But for a player they want, signing him and building around him once he is here is certainly acceptable.

 

The 2000 Red Sox were not one Manny Ramirez away from a title, and did not even make the post-season in his first two seasons on the team, and in fact won fewer games his first year in Boston than they did the year before without him. But he was still the right signing and they certainly managed to work from that point on to put the right team around him...

 

Agreed. #1 is not really true, if number 2 was not true.

 

If there was a Manny available, now would be the time.

[jad]

Agreed. #1 is not really true, if number 2 was not true.

 

If there was a Manny available, now would be the time.

 

Well, there was one. Last year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bloom's current demands for 26-year-old Beni: "a younger corner outfielder along with a minor-league pitcher not necessarily on the 40-man roster."

 

Bradford: "The belief is that Bloom's motivation isn't all that dissimilar to what we saw with some of his moves in Tampa Bay, dealing more experienced players (Benintendi has two more years before free agency) for the upside and contractual control of a younger player at the position."

 

How in the wide world of Red Sox Nation can writers still be pushing this narrative? Bloom's been here a year-and-a-half!

[dgalehouse]

Well, there was one. Last year.

 

Bloom's current demands for 26-year-old Beni: "a younger corner outfielder along with a minor-league pitcher not necessarily on the 40-man roster."

 

Bradford: "The belief is that Bloom's motivation isn't all that dissimilar to what we saw with some of his moves in Tampa Bay, dealing more experienced players (Benintendi has two more years before free agency) for the upside and contractual control of a younger player at the position."

 

How in the wide world of Red Sox Nation can writers still be pushing this narrative? Bloom's been here a year-and-a-half!

There are not a lot of good, objective sports writers. On one hand , you have the " chipmunks " who are always trying to stir up a little mischief. On the other hand , you have the " butt kissers " who are always trying to be nice and curry favor with those who they think can help or hurt them. True objectivity is becoming a lost art.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There are not a lot of good, objective sports writers. On one hand , you have the " chipmunks " who are always trying to stir up a little mischief. On the other hand , you have the " butt kissers " who are always trying to be nice and curry favor with those who they think can help or hurt them. True objectivity is becoming a lost art.

 

Even writing done in the third-person point of view is driven by subjective reality. At least, 5GGs thinks so.

[mvp 78]

The perennially contending Yankees had to give Gerrit Cole a contract that shattered the previous record deal for pitchers, to get him to come to NY.

 

Would you want to work in the Bronx?

[mvp 78]

Agreed. #1 is not really true, if number 2 was not true.

 

If there was a Manny available, now would be the time.

 

Manny is available. He was just cut from his AUS team.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Would you want to work in the Bronx?

 

Cole was campaigning in the streets with a sign he made as a kid saying Yankee Fan Forever.

[mvp 78]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/martin-perez-dons-the-red-sox-again/

 

From Jaffe's notes on Martin Perez signing:

 

Meanwhile, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom is reportedly considering the possibility of a six-man rotation given the increased workloads his starters will face.

 

If that's that's the case, Andriese, Perez, ERod, Pivetta, Houck and Eovaldi would be the starting 6 on Opening Day unless they sign some other guys. Not sure I'm into that plan. I know you need/want to limit innings for ERod/Houck/Eovaldi/Sale, but I'm not sure that a 6 man rotation is the best way to go about it.

[mvp 78]

FWIW, here's Fangraphs take on 6 man rotations:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-costs-and-benefits-of-six-man-rotations/

[notin]

Bloom's current demands for 26-year-old Beni: "a younger corner outfielder along with a minor-league pitcher not necessarily on the 40-man roster."

 

Bradford: "The belief is that Bloom's motivation isn't all that dissimilar to what we saw with some of his moves in Tampa Bay, dealing more experienced players (Benintendi has two more years before free agency) for the upside and contractual control of a younger player at the position."

 

How in the wide world of Red Sox Nation can writers still be pushing this narrative? Bloom's been here a year-and-a-half!

 

So we get some Chris Archer/Tyler Glasnow type deals? I'm not sure what you're point is...

[harmony]

Bloom's current demands for 26-year-old Beni: "a younger corner outfielder along with a minor-league pitcher not necessarily on the 40-man roster."

 

Bradford: "The belief is that Bloom's motivation isn't all that dissimilar to what we saw with some of his moves in Tampa Bay, dealing more experienced players (Benintendi has two more years before free agency) for the upside and contractual control of a younger player at the position."

 

How in the wide world of Red Sox Nation can writers still be pushing this narrative? Bloom's been here a year-and-a-half!

Corner outfielder Jake Fraley and prospect righthander Isaiah Campbell from Seattle would fit the bill if the Red Sox added lefty reliever Josh Taylor:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-38289/

 

Tampa Bay selected Fraley in the second round of the 2016 draft when Chaim Bloom was with the Rays. Campbell was Seattle's second-round pick in 2019.

[Nick]

FWIW, here's Fangraphs take on 6 man rotations:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-costs-and-benefits-of-six-man-rotations/

 

I may have asked previously and keep in mind I know nothing about pitching and recovery between starts....

 

With six man rotation, can each one of them throw one competitive inning between starts? Surely each starter throws between starts and not just to stretch out.

[moonslav59]

I may have asked previously and keep in mind I know nothing about pitching and recovery between starts....

 

With six man rotation, can each one of them throw one competitive inning between starts?

 

I would think they could, but it might mess up the timing or mindset.

 

I'd prefer to go with "openers" and limit the IP of our fragile starters- basically all of 'em but Perez.

[Nick]

I would think they could, but it might mess up the timing or mindset.

 

I'd prefer to go with "openers" and limit the IP of our fragile starters- basically all of 'em but Perez.

 

I cringe every time I hear that a professional baseball player maybe 'fragile'.

 

I thought about the six man rotation thinking it may benefit someone like Houck. What if he gets off to great start? Can he do it in August and September? Does he have enough stamina? Is there a 'wall'? Is it 200 or 150 IP?

Edited January 19, 2021 by Nick

[notin]

Would you want to work in the Bronx?

 

For $36 million? I'd give it some thought...

[Bellhorn04]

For $36 million? I'd give it some thought...

 

Yeah, but you'd have to do it for 9 years, remember...

[Bellhorn04]

I cringe every time I hear that a professional baseball player maybe 'fragile'.

 

Pitchers' arms are incredibly fragile.

 

Or maybe it's more accurate to say that pitching does incredible damage to the human arm.

[moonslav59]

I thought about the six man rotation thinking it may benefit someone like Houck. What if he gets off to great start? Can he do it in August and September? Does he have enough stamina? Is there a 'wall'? Is it 200 or 150 IP?

 

Couldn't the same thing be accomplished by limiting his pitch count every 5th day?

 

Pitchers are used to a set routine. I wouldn't mess with it.

Edited January 19, 2021 by moonslav59