A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Liam Hendriks to White Sox 3/54 mill. Seriously? MLBTR predicted 3/30.

 

What does this do to free agent prices the rest of the way?

 

It is true the players who sign early always do better. Are we seeing an adjustment as to what qualifies as "early"? We've still only seen three players get deals longer than 2 years (McCann, Kim, and Hendricks)...

[Nick]

Haha. I have to admit that I take regular trips to the casino (during non-pandemic times) to play the slots. Yes, I know that my chances of coming out ahead are nil, but it's something I enjoy doing with my best friend. We usually make a weekend out of it, a girls getaway weekend. Don't worry, I play very small amounts. LOL

 

 

I do have to admit that I take regular trips to the casino (during non-pandemic times) to play slots. Yes, I am aware that my chances of winning anything are sl

 

Nearest casino (fortunately) is 90 minutes away. Over the years I moved from slots to blackjacks and lastly to Texas holdem. I hate to admit but I was one of those that purchased books and videos on "How to win at........". I figured I was pretty smart........

 

I considered it as entertainment. I always put a limit of $300. On one trip, I had just sat down. Threw away my first hand. I was dealt pocket aces on next hand. Person to my right put a raise to $25 so I just called. Another person called and the next guy raised it to $75. One guy called the raise and came back to me. I went all in. This was all preflop. $75 raiser had pocket kings. Anyway, a king came up on the flop and I ended up losing my $300. I was at the table for 5 miuntes. I have gone as long as over 24 hours straight.

 

Being an accountant, I'm probably too conservative to win big at card games. You got to have balls and place no value in losing money. Apparently mine aren't big enough.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-45-prospects-boston-red-sox/

 

Interesting projections... the following have ETAs sometime this year: Mata, Seabold, Bazardo, Rosario, Potts, Wong, Whitlock, Feltman, Wilson. My goal is to hopefully still be around in '24 to see the debuts of Matt Lugo and Juan Chacon.

[notin]

Nearest casino (fortunately) is 90 minutes away. Over the years I moved from slots to blackjacks and lastly to Texas holdem. I hate to admit but I was one of those that purchased books and videos on "How to win at........". I figured I was pretty smart........

 

I considered it as entertainment. I always put a limit of $300. On one trip, I had just sat down. Threw away my first hand. I was dealt pocket aces on next hand. Person to my right put a raise to $25 so I just called. Another person called and the next guy raised it to $75. One guy called the raise and came back to me. I went all in. This was all preflop. $75 raiser had pocket kings. Anyway, a king came up on the flop and I ended up losing my $300. I was at the table for 5 miuntes. I have gone as long as over 24 hours straight.

 

Being an accountant, I'm probably too conservative to win big at card games. You got to have balls and place no value in losing money. Apparently mine aren't big enough.

 

I do love playing Hold'Em at a casino, but my limit is about the same as yours - around $300. And that puts you at such a disadvantage, because you cannot use a $300 all-in bet to bluff someone if they have $8,000 in chips in front of them. Best thing you can do with small cash is play super conservatively and fold a lot, which you can fortunately do for free most of the time...

[mvp 78]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-45-prospects-boston-red-sox/

 

Interesting projections... the following have ETAs sometime this year: Mata, Seabold, Bazardo, Rosario, Potts, Wong, Whitlock, Feltman, Wilson. My goal is to hopefully still be around in '24 to see the debuts of Matt Lugo and Juan Chacon.

 

I don't think we see Wilson, Feltman, Potts or Rosario this year. Mata could be a late season call up. Seabold is probably an emergency starter. Wong may get called up after the deadline, but more likely is on the roster in 2022. Whitlock will definitely be here due to his rule V status. Bazardo could potentially be in the pen on opening day, but who knows.

[moonslav59]

It is true the players who sign early always do better. Are we seeing an adjustment as to what qualifies as "early"? We've still only seen three players get deals longer than 2 years (McCann, Kim, and Hendricks)...

 

And 3 years is not really all that long.

[moonslav59]

I don't think we see Wilson, Feltman, Potts or Rosario this year. Mata could be a late season call up. Seabold is probably an emergency starter. Wong may get called up after the deadline, but more likely is on the roster in 2022. Whitlock will definitely be here due to his rule V status. Bazardo could potentially be in the pen on opening day, but who knows.

 

I think they meant they may be ML ready at some point, this year, not necessarily being called up and seeing ML action, but I agree.

 

If we only add one more OF'er Rosario or Wilson may earn a shot at some point.

[mvp 78]

I think they meant they may be ML ready at some point, this year, not necessarily being called up and seeing ML action, but I agree.

 

If we only add one more OF'er Rosario or Wilson may earn a shot at some point.

 

I thought recent reports stated Rosario was actually pretty far away? I just don't buy into Wilson as even a AAAA guy.

[jad]

Nearest casino (fortunately) is 90 minutes away. Over the years I moved from slots to blackjacks and lastly to Texas holdem. I hate to admit but I was one of those that purchased books and videos on "How to win at........". I figured I was pretty smart........

 

I considered it as entertainment. I always put a limit of $300. On one trip, I had just sat down. Threw away my first hand. I was dealt pocket aces on next hand. Person to my right put a raise to $25 so I just called. Another person called and the next guy raised it to $75. One guy called the raise and came back to me. I went all in. This was all preflop. $75 raiser had pocket kings. Anyway, a king came up on the flop and I ended up losing my $300. I was at the table for 5 miuntes. I have gone as long as over 24 hours straight.

 

Being an accountant, I'm probably too conservative to win big at card games. You got to have balls and place no value in losing money. Apparently mine aren't big enough.

 

What you are saying, I realize, is that your brains are bigger than your nut, which I have found (usually by the merciless School of Experience) is a pretty good policy if you want to get anywhere in life! (Yet being an accountant, how could you not realize that if you go to a casino, the more you play the more you are likely to lose? --- I know I know. I'm not trying to seize the moral high ground; how could many of us not know that drinking alcohol can lead to drunkenness, rude and disgusting behavior, and in some cases death or a night of convulsions?)

[moonslav59]

I thought recent reports stated Rosario was actually pretty far away? I just don't buy into Wilson as even a AAAA guy.

 

I've never been high on Wilson. I think he may be DFA'd or traded once we add an OF'er or two.

 

Rosario is 21 and is projected to be in AA, this year. I agree it may be a stretch to think he'll be ML ready that quickly, but he's apparently a great defender, so maybe that makes him valuable enough to be ML ready.

 

Our OF depth is so weak, and if we end up getting rid of Wilson, who is clearly more "ML ready," but maybe not as skilled as Rosario, we could possible see Rosario as a late inning defensive replacement late in 2021.

 

[Bellhorn04]

What you are saying, I realize, is that your brains are bigger than your nut, which I have found (usually by the merciless School of Experience) is a pretty good policy if you want to get anywhere in life! (Yet being an accountant, how could you not realize that if you go to a casino, the more you play the more you are likely to lose? --- I know I know. I'm not trying to seize the moral high ground; how could many of us not know that drinking alcohol can lead to drunkenness, rude and disgusting behavior, and in some cases death or a night of convulsions?)

 

I've always liked the term 'idiot tax' for the money governments rake in from gamblers.

[mvp 78]

I've never been high on Wilson. I think he may be DFA'd or traded once we add an OF'er or two.

 

Rosario is 21 and is projected to be in AA, this year. I agree it may be a stretch to think he'll be ML ready that quickly, but he's apparently a great defender, so maybe that makes him valuable enough to be ML ready.

 

Our OF depth is so weak, and if we end up getting rid of Wilson, who is clearly more "ML ready," but maybe not as skilled as Rosario, we could possible see Rosario as a late inning defensive replacement late in 2021.

 

 

I just heard that Rosario's bat is way behind. If he's only going to be a 5th OFer, I guess you could bring him up. I'd give him a full season in AA and see if his bat can come around.

[notin]

I just heard that Rosario's bat is way behind. If he's only going to be a 5th OFer, I guess you could bring him up. I'd give him a full season in AA and see if his bat can come around.

 

What's the rush on Rosario?

 

We have Duran ahead of him, and the Sox have Wilson and Puello if they need a 4th or 5th outfielder. Rosario is 21, no need to pigeon hole him just yet...

[mvp 78]

What's the rush on Rosario?

 

We have Duran ahead of him, and the Sox have Wilson and Puello if they need a 4th or 5th outfielder. Rosario is 21, no need to pigeon hole him just yet...

 

No rush. Just someone stated that his ETA was 2021, which is really wrong.

[oldtimer]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-45-prospects-boston-red-sox/

 

Interesting projections... the following have ETAs sometime this year: Mata, Seabold, Bazardo, Rosario, Potts, Wong, Whitlock, Feltman, Wilson. My goal is to hopefully still be around in '24 to see the debuts of Matt Lugo and Juan Chacon.

 

What ever happened to players making ML debuts at 17 or even 16 year olds? There were some of those in the 40's and 50's. Our own Jim Pagliaroni made a cameo debut as a 17 yo but didn't stick until he was around 20. Now we have players 24 and 25 and a lot of contributors here say they need more development time. Is it because we don't have talent in the minors. Devers was the youngest we have brought up recently. The Padres brought up Tatis a little younger.

[moonslav59]

What's the rush on Rosario?

 

We have Duran ahead of him, and the Sox have Wilson and Puello if they need a 4th or 5th outfielder. Rosario is 21, no need to pigeon hole him just yet...

 

I'm not for rushing him, I was just saying what I think might happen, or why they said me might be ready at some point in 2021.

 

In some ways, I think he might turn out better than Duran.

[mvp 78]

What ever happened to players making ML debuts at 17 or even 16 year olds? There were some of those in the 40's and 50's. Our own Jim Pagliaroni made a cameo debut as a 17 yo but didn't stick until he was around 20. Now we have players 24 and 25 and a lot of contributors here say they need more development time. Is it because we don't have talent in the minors. Devers was the youngest we have brought up recently. The Padres brought up Tatis a little younger.

 

How much smaller was the developmental system in the 40's and 50's?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No rush. Just someone stated that his ETA was 2021, which is really wrong.

 

It was Fangraphs; a reliable site according to some posters.

[mvp 78]

Even in center field, there really aren’t any impact regulars who fail to hit for at least some power, and barring something unforeseen, I think a lack of thump will keep Rosario from being a true everyday player despite his very interesting, and in some ways very special, skillset. This guy walked in nearly 17% of his Hi-A plate appearances in 2019 as just a teenager, and he has a chance to be a special defender in center because of his speed and athleticism, though he was only a 50 runner last Fall (I’m chalking this up to a long, weird year during which Rosario was traded). Rosario is also very tough to get to swing-and-miss in the zone, but some of that is because he’s very conservatively poking, slapping, and slashing soft contact all over the infield and not really trying to hit for power. Realistically, he’s a low-end regular in center field, or some sort of weird meta-game role player if the plus defense finally materializes.

 

Basically, they are saying that he'd get promoted because of his speed and his fielding (which hasn't materialized yet).

 

Sox Prospects has his ETA as "late 2022." Could just be a misprint from Fangraphs.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I thought recent reports stated Rosario was actually pretty far away? I just don't buy into Wilson as even a AAAA guy.

 

With you on tall Marcus; saw him and Duran in the same outfield a few years back and didn't see a single big league tool; at least Duran could fly (and last summer reportedly added more pop in RI).

[notin]

How much smaller was the developmental system in the 40's and 50's?

 

It was roughly the same size, but 5 levels were named A, A1, B, C, and D prior to 1963 when they adopted their existing nomenclature...

[notin]

It was Fangraphs; a reliable site according to some posters.

 

Well, do not forget what the "E" in ETA stands for...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well, do not forget what the "E" in ETA stands for...

 

It's not my gospel, I was sharing the link. I actually like b-ref better, because my simpleton stat brain finds it more user-friendly.

[notin]

It's not my gospel, I was sharing the link. I actually like b-ref better, because my simpleton stat brain finds it more user-friendly.

 

I'd like it better but it has no good sorting and comparing features for looking at multiple players at once...

[moonslav59]

Beni Trade Talks on MLBTR

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/red-sox-discussing-andrew-benintendi-in-trade-talks.html

[Bellhorn04]

Beni Trade Talks on MLBTR

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/red-sox-discussing-andrew-benintendi-in-trade-talks.html

 

Seems to be intensifying.

 

I'm sure Bloom won't sell too low on him. The teams that are interested know he has upside.

[moonslav59]

Seems to be intensifying.

 

I'm sure Bloom won't sell too low on him. The teams that are interested know he has upside.

 

Beni's 2019 was not as bad as many felt it was. His 2020 season should be written off, and most GMs will not worry over it.

 

I still think now is not the time to trade Beni, but I trust Bloom will not hand him away.

 

The article hints at trading him for a prospect, which I guess teams looking to acquire Beni would be in "win now" mode.

 

Trading him without getting a ML ready OF'er in return would have to mean we will be adding 2-3 OF'ers before opening day... most likely via trade.

[mvp 78]

Beni's 2019 was not as bad as many felt it was. His 2020 season should be written off, and most GMs will not worry over it.

 

I still think now is not the time to trade Beni, but I trust Bloom will not hand him away.

 

The article hints at trading him for a prospect, which I guess teams looking to acquire Beni would be in "win now" mode.

 

Trading him without getting a ML ready OF'er in return would have to mean we will be adding 2-3 OF'ers before opening day... most likely via trade.

 

Beni ended the season with a 455 OPS over his last 109 AB's. That carried over into 2020.

[moonslav59]

Beni ended the season with a 455 OPS over his last 109 AB's. That carried over into 2020.

 

So, a 161 PA stretch, which included the 52 PAs from an injury plagued shortened season is very significant?

 

JBJ had had 2 of those stretches in one season- multiple times.

[mvp 78]

So, a 161 PA stretch, which included the 52 PAs from an injury plagued shortened season is very significant?

 

JBJ had had 2 of those stretches in one season- multiple times.

 

So Beni's SSS can be ignored, but Liam Hendrick's SSS is worth a 4 year contract?