A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Probably worth pointing out my picks so far:

 

Charlie Morton - Mets. Whoops.

Mike Minor - Padres. Double whoops

Drew Smyly - Overseas. And sadly, I was confident in this one.

 

So yeah, my prognostication abilities might be a bit overrated, regardless of how low you rate them...

 

Nobody ever predicts this stuff very accurately. Doesn't stop them from trying, though.

 

It's like me and my weekly NFL picks vs. the spread. I fail almost every week and yet I go into the next week with renewed optimism.

[mvp 78]

OK.

 

But who will be the interested spenders? So far, a lot of teams seem to be more interested in jettisoning big contracts.

 

I would keep the Sox as candidates solely because they really need to spend after the PR nightmare that was 2020. The Mets are in the same boat as well. But who else? Yankees? Dodgers? Angels? Phillies?

 

He's staying with the Reds IMO.

[mvp 78]

What do you predict he signs for?

 

No clue, but it won't be in Boston.

 

My reference to 128 was in reference to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts_Route_128

[mvp 78]

Nobody ever predicts this stuff very accurately. Doesn't stop them from trying, though.

 

It's like me and my weekly NFL picks vs. the spread. I fail almost every week and yet I go into the next week with renewed optimism.

 

Yup, a dart board would be just as accurate most times (at least for most of the minor signings).

[Bellhorn04]

E-Rod signs for 1 year and $8.3 million, avoiding arbitration.

[mvp 78]

E-Rod signs for 1 year and $8.3 million, avoiding arbitration.

 

Seems like a good deal to me.

[notin]

He's staying with the Reds IMO.

 

While clearly predicting these things is not my strong suit, I just think there are too many teams who can easily outbid the Reds. And if Bauer stays true to his "one year contracts" decision, it does prevent a lot of heavy-spending teams from shying away. The only risk is if you sign him for one season, and that season never happens.

 

The only reason I think the Reds have a chance at signing him is teams might be hesitant to give up a draft pick for him and then have a non-season at all, or an injury-plagued season from Bauer...

[Bellhorn04]

While clearly predicting these things is not my strong suit, I just think there are too many teams who can easily outbid the Reds. And if Bauer stays true to his "one year contracts" decision, it does prevent a lot of heavy-spending teams from shying away. The only risk is if you sign him for one season, and that season never happens.

 

The only reason I think the Reds have a chance at signing him is teams might be hesitant to give up a draft pick for him and then have a non-season at all, or an injury-plagued season from Bauer...

 

I'm pretty sure Bauer said he was now willing to sign a contract longer than a year.

[notin]

I'm pretty sure Bauer said he was now willing to sign a contract longer than a year.

 

It makes all the sense in the world for him to consider longer deals. He stands to be overpaid if he does, whereas the lucrative one year deals might disappear rather quickly as he ages...

[mvp 78]

I'm pretty sure Bauer said he was now willing to sign a contract longer than a year.

 

He's definitely going longer than one year unless some team is going to offer something like 1/35. That's unlikely though since whoever signs him loses a pick.

[moonslav59]

He's definitely going longer than one year unless some team is going to offer something like 1/35. That's unlikely though since whoever signs him loses a pick.

 

He may bank on the market spiking after COVID.

 

That's the only reason he may go with a 1 year deal, IMO.

[mvp 78]

He may bank on the market spiking after COVID.

 

That's the only reason he may go with a 1 year deal, IMO.

 

I can't imagine another team giving up a pick for just a 1 year deal. Maybe just a 1 year deal to stay with the Reds?

[moonslav59]

I can't imagine another team giving up a pick for just a 1 year deal. Maybe just a 1 year deal to stay with the Reds?

 

Teams that think they are one great pitcher away may think it's worth it. Others that have low picks may not value it highly. Others may feel that once they get him on their team, he'll want to stay- like Mookie did.

[moonslav59]

I can't imagine another team giving up a pick for just a 1 year deal. Maybe just a 1 year deal to stay with the Reds?

 

There is a history of giving up a draft pick for a 1 year deal.

 

The Sox lost a pick when signing Stephen Drew. Other one year qualifying offer FA singings for that year were Ervin Santana (ATL), N Cruz (BAL) & K Morales (MN).

 

A few years later:

Dexter Fowler- 1 yr with the Cubs, Ian Desmond with Texas. In 2018, Greg Holland (STL) & Lance Lynn (MN).

 

Did the Braves lose a pick to sign Dallas Keuchel to a one year deal?

[notin]

There is a history of giving up a draft pick for a 1 year deal.

 

The Sox lost a pick when signing Stephen Drew. Other one year qualifying offer FA singings for that year were Ervin Santana (ATL), N Cruz (BAL) & K Morales (MN).

 

A few years later:

Dexter Fowler- 1 yr with the Cubs, Ian Desmond with Texas. In 2018, Greg Holland (STL) & Lance Lynn (MN).

 

Did the Braves lose a pick to sign Dallas Keuchel to a one year deal?

 

The Twins signed Morales after the draft and did not lose a pick for signing him...

[moonslav59]

The Twins signed Morales after the draft and did not lose a pick for signing him...

 

I wondered that about some on this list.

 

I will say, Bauer seems more "worth it" than these guys, although the climate seems to have shifted on the value of draft picks.

[Bellhorn04]

I wondered that about some on this list.

 

I will say, Bauer seems more "worth it" than these guys, although the climate seems to have shifted on the value of draft picks.

 

Because the rules changed pretty drastically.

[moonslav59]

Because the rules changed pretty drastically.

 

That's that major reason, yes.

[Kimmi]

OK.

 

But who will be the interested spenders? So far, a lot of teams seem to be more interested in jettisoning big contracts.

 

I would keep the Sox as candidates solely because they really need to spend after the PR nightmare that was 2020. The Mets are in the same boat as well. But who else? Yankees? Dodgers? Angels? Phillies?

 

Rather than spending in free agency, I've read that the Sox might be interested in taking some of those contracts off of other team's hands, in order to get some return in prospects as well. Finding the right trade partner is the challenge. Bumgarner's name came up as a possibility. All speculation, of course.

[moonslav59]

Rather than spending in free agency, I've read that the Sox might be interested in taking some of those contracts off of other team's hands, in order to get some return in prospects as well. Finding the right trade partner is the challenge. Bumgarner's name came up as a possibility. All speculation, of course.

 

That is exactly the types of trades I envision and have been playing around with on the trade values site.

 

You have to think the Rays would love to trade Kierimaier, but interdivisional trades can get problematic.

[Kimmi]

That is exactly the types of trades I envision and have been playing around with on the trade values site.

 

You have to think the Rays would love to trade Kierimaier, but interdivisional trades can get problematic.

 

I don't have the time to research other teams thoroughly enough to know who might be available. However, I am confident that Bloom and the FO are spending countless hours considering every possible trade scenario out there. He's going to have to get creative. It's been a slow and boring offseason so far, but I think we'll end up being pleased with the product that Bloom puts on the field in 2021.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As decent players continue to sign -- and establish the new Covid market for position players, starting pitchers and relievers -- I'm starting to come around to the idea that Bloom is sitting back watching and waiting as clubs fill their needs.

 

Then, and maybe only then, will the Red Sox and their reset, big-market budget strike... and scoop up a lot of leftover talent that has no choice but to sign for the adjusted market price that Bloom's patience has re-established.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I can't imagine another team giving up a pick for just a 1 year deal. Maybe just a 1 year deal to stay with the Reds?

 

I can't imagine the Yankees letting three starting pitchers from their rotation go and not signing Bauer... especially if the Mets are interested in him.

[Bellhorn04]

As decent players continue to sign -- and establish the new Covid market for position players, starting pitchers and relievers -- I'm starting to come around to the idea that Bloom is sitting back watching and waiting as clubs fill their needs.

 

Then, and maybe only then, will the Red Sox and their reset, big-market budget strike... and scoop up a lot of leftover talent that has no choice but to sign for the adjusted market price that Bloom's patience has re-established.

 

There have only been a handful of signings so far.

[moonslav59]

There have only been a handful of signings so far.

 

Exactly. 90% of teams have done nothing significant or major.

[oldtimer]

I don't have the time to research other teams thoroughly enough to know who might be available. However, I am confident that Bloom and the FO are spending countless hours considering every possible trade scenario out there. He's going to have to get creative. It's been a slow and boring offseason so far, but I think we'll end up being pleased with the product that Bloom puts on the field in 2021.

 

Of course Bloom and his team are looking at all sorts of creative ways to improve the team and no doubt he has in mind a budget in place for this year. I think Bloom will ask himself if any move they are considering will fit the goal of making the team consistently competitive.

 

We know the weak spots. Those are CF, 2nd Base and Pitching (both starting and relief). We also have other questions we have to consider such as will Sale return and be competitive, will Beni be able to hit effectively, will Devers defense at third improve, will E-Rod return to form, will JDM also recover his form, will the Pedroia situation get resolved?

 

He has to consider his prospect list and decide who looks to be worth a try in the majors and who he believes need to be replaced. I still consider Dalbec to be a prospect and then there are Duran, Chatham and several pitchers.

 

Yes, Bloom has his plate full and probably will not be able to solve all the issues in one year, but I look for good progress in 2021 to build from.

[moonslav59]

Of course Bloom and his team are looking at all sorts of creative ways to improve the team and no doubt he has in mind a budget in place for this year. I think Bloom will ask himself if any move they are considering will fit the goal of making the team consistently competitive.

 

We know the weak spots. Those are CF, 2nd Base and Pitching (both starting and relief). We also have other questions we have to consider such as will Sale return and be competitive, will Beni be able to hit effectively, will Devers defense at third improve, will E-Rod return to form, will JDM also recover his form, will the Pedroia situation get resolved?

 

He has to consider his prospect list and decide who looks to be worth a try in the majors and who he believes need to be replaced. I still consider Dalbec to be a prospect and then there are Duran, Chatham and several pitchers.

 

Yes, Bloom has his plate full and probably will not be able to solve all the issues in one year, but I look for good progress in 2021 to build from.

 

Dalbec certainly has not proven he's here to stay, but decent 1Bmen are usually easy to acquire, mid season, if needed, so we'll start the season with Dalbec (and some Chavis) at 1B, IMO.

 

We may also roll the dice on Arroyo, Munez & Co. at 2B before looking elsewhere. I doubt Chatham makes the opening days roster, unless we add no infielders and there's an injury.

 

I think CF is a position we have to add to, this winter. I do not think Duran will be ML ready by opening day. Duran or Chatham may become part of the puzzle at some point during the year.

 

Basically, about 90% of our available resources should go towards pitching. Yes, both SP'ers and RP'ers. We will likely limit Houck's innings and maybe even his time on the big squad, so as to add a year of service to his tenure with the Sox. With ERod & Sale being question marks, and Eovaldi always one, we should add one durable innings eater and maybe another very good SP'er and/or 2-3 decent SP'ers that can fight for the remaining 1-2 jobs, if and when everyone gets healthy.

 

I can see us trading for a closer and signing a decent #2 man. We may even add another 1-2 pen arms on top of those two.

[notin]

Exactly. 90% of teams have done nothing significant or major.

 

I'd say only Atlanta has done anything significant. Maybe the Mets, too, if you like Trevor May...

[notin]

 

I think CF is a position we have to add to, this winter. I do not think Duran will be ML ready by opening day. Duran or Chatham may become part of the puzzle at some point during the year.

 

.

 

 

While not a move I am in favor of, it is possible the Sox move Benintendi or Verdugo to CF and sign a corner OF. Outside of Springer, the CF market really lacks any impact players with the only other possible exception being Bradley. But the corner OF market is a bit more robust and just got a little bigger with the Twins waiving of Eddie Rosario.

 

One possible and I am not even sure unlikely scenario is that the Sox bring in a LF and a RHH defensive CF (Alberto Almora? Kevin Pillar?) to be a platoon/defensive replacement/4th outfielder paired with Benintendi in CF.

 

Bringing Pillar back gives the Sox a decent option for CF if Benintendi continues to struggle. Bringing in a starting CF and a 4th outfielder capable of CF might not provide the same level of solution. I'd rather see a Rosario/Pillar/Verdugo outfield over a Pillar/Marisnick/Verdugo outfield...

[moonslav59]

I'd say only Atlanta has done anything significant. Maybe the Mets, too, if you like Trevor May...

 

So, it's more like 3-6% have done anything substantial.