A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Brice, Covey, Godley, Hall, Hart, Kickham, Leyer, Stock, Triggs, Walden, Peraza, Chatham, Lin

 

I bet they keep Aybar since he's the youngest pitcher on the 40 man.

 

Brewer over Chatham?

[moonslav59]

Brice, Covey, Godley, Hall, Hart, Kickham, Leyer, Stock, Triggs, Walden, Peraza, Chatham, Lin

 

I bet they keep Aybar since he's the youngest pitcher on the 40 man.

 

Good picks. I think they may keep Covey and Chatham and let Walden & Wilson or Puello go, desp[ite their lack of depth in the OF. (I think we'll add 2 OF'ers, later.)

[notin]

Good picks. I think they may keep Covey and Chatham and let Walden & Wilson or Puello go, desp[ite their lack of depth in the OF. (I think we'll add 2 OF'ers, later.)

 

Much to my chagrin, Puello is not very likely to be on the 40 man come January...

[moonslav59]

Brewer over Chatham?

 

I almost added Brewer's name to my list.

[Bellhorn04]

I still say, had Pom and HRam (not to mention Wright and others) had their 2016 seasons in 2015, Ben might still be around.

 

It's kind of a dubious argument IMO, because Porcello and HanRam's 2016 seasons were HUGE outliers in their Red Sox careers.

 

Their 2015 seasons were not the outliers.

[mvp 78]

Brewer over Chatham?

 

Yes, sir!

[mvp 78]

Brewer is an adequate reliever. He should just never ever start.

[moonslav59]

It's kind of a dubious argument IMO, because Porcello and HanRam's 2016 seasons were HUGE outliers in their Red Sox careers.

 

Their 2015 seasons were not the outliers.

 

Porcello, somewhat, HRam, no. HRam had many seasons better than 2016. (HRam's 2017 season was also better than 2015.)

 

Porcello's ERA+

93 2012

96 2013

113 2014

87 2015

142 2016

98 2017

103 2018

 

His fWAR: 2.3, 3.0, 2.9, 3.0, 1.7, 5.1

 

1.7 is about 1.3 from his previous 3 year norm. 5.1 is 2.1 from the norm.

 

With HRam, 2015 was clearly the "outlier."

fWAR

after being over 7 in 2008 and 2009...

4.1

0.9 (half season)

2.9

4.9 (half season)

3.7

-1.2 (2015 in 105 gms)

3.0 (2016)

-0.5 (2017)

 

The point was that outlier seasons by players Ben brought in or handed over to DD caused the "turnaround" between 2015 and 2016 by more than adding Price and Kimbrel.

 

Others like Betts, Leon, JBJ, Wright and Pedey also did much better. Only a handful of players declined slightly from 2025 to 2016.

[dgalehouse]

I am just stating the facts. The bottom line realities. Others can give the spin , the opinionated possibilities, the what ifs , maybes , could haves, and might haves. The excuses and extenuating circumstances. But none of that changes the bottom line reality. And that is that Dombrowski took over a struggling team , and turned it around immediately.

[mvp 78]

Porcello, somewhat, HRam, no. HRam had many seasons better than 2016.

 

Of his 5 Sox seasons, only one was positive WAR. Which one was the outlier again?

[mvp 78]

@RedSox

The #RedSox today announced the following roster moves:

 

Outrighted to AAA: Lin and Leyer

Outrighted to FA: Kickham, Godley and Triggs

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

The Sox now have enough room to add Pedroia, Sale, Rodriguez, Brewer, and Hart back on to the 40-man once JBJ hits free agency.

 

Later they will need to continue the bloodletting for Groome, Mata, Seabold, Wong, Potts, and Rosario.

[moonslav59]

Of his 5 Sox seasons, only one was positive WAR. Which one was the outlier again?

 

Wrong question, but 2015, easily.

[moonslav59]

@RedSox

The #RedSox today announced the following roster moves:

 

Outrighted to AAA: Lin and Leyer

Outrighted to FA: Kickham, Godley and Triggs

 

Pretty much expected.

 

The next 6 may be a little more difficult but not painful.

[moonslav59]

Pretty much expected.

 

The next 6 may be a little more difficult but not painful.

 

Peraza is likely non tendered.

4A. Out of option players on the bubble: Brice, Puello

4B. Players with options on the bubble: Hart, Hall, Springs, Walden, Wilson, Chatham, Stock, Aybar, Brewer

 

I pick Red

 

When we sign a SP'er- bye bye Walden.

When we sign 2 RP'ers- bye bye Stock and Chatham

When we sign a CF'er- bye bye Wilson

Edited October 26, 2020 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

I pick Red

 

I think they keep one of Puello or Wilson (especially since they are losing JBJ).

[moonslav59]

I think they keep one of Puello or Wilson (especially since they are losing JBJ).

 

Wilson was not in red.

 

I dump Wilson, after we sign an OF'er or two, but I suppose it could be Hart or Pedey's time to go- or Brewer.

 

We might also trade someone, maybe even Wilson for an OF'er that does not need to be on the 40 man but is ML ready.

[Bellhorn04]

Wrong question, but 2015, easily.

 

In HanRam's Red Sox career, 2016 was the outlier. Surely you're not disagreeing with that.

[Donnie Sadler was short]

Wilson was not in red.

 

I dump Wilson, after we sign an OF'er or two, but I suppose it could be Hart or Pedey's time to go- or Brewer.

 

We might also trade someone, maybe even Wilson for an OF'er that does not need to be on the 40 man but is ML ready.

 

Is there any reason to keep Pedey other than his service &sentimentality? They need to have a conversation with him & say...hey its time, we need to release you, how would you like to do it.

[Bellhorn04]

Is there any reason to keep Pedey other than his service &sentimentality? They need to have a conversation with him & say...hey its time, we need to release you, how would you like to do it.

 

Can they just keep him on the 60 day IL all season?

 

In any case it's a non-issue. They'll treat him with respect but obviously he won't be on the roster.

[jad]

Is there any reason to keep Pedey other than his service &sentimentality? They need to have a conversation with him & say...hey its time, we need to release you, how would you like to do it.

 

He will answer, as he should, "Pay me what you contracted to pay me." Hardly matters whether he's released or kept on the roster, does it? THe RS owe him that money, will and should have to pay it, and it will and should count against the cap, right? (Or wait ... if they release him, and never put him on the roster, does that money count? or is he in Rusney Castillo land?)

Edited October 26, 2020 by jad

[Bellhorn04]

He will answer, as he should, "Pay me what you contracted to pay me." Hardly matters whether he's released or kept on the roster, does it? THe RS owe him that money, will and should have to pay it, and it will and should count against the cap, right? (Or wait ... if they release him, and never put him on the roster, does that money count? or is he in Rusney Castillo land?)

 

a) They'll pay him every nickel.

No, they closed the Rusney loophole before Pedey got hurt.

[notin]

Can they just keep him on the 60 day IL all season?

 

In any case it's a non-issue. They'll treat him with respect but obviously he won't be on the roster.

 

He will be on the 60 day IL all season. But there is a brief timeframe when he has to b activated and counts on the 40 man roster, takig up a space for an offseason acquisition.

 

Normally, this has been a big deal, but since this year's team has about 15-20 players that could be DFA'd without any cause for concern, there should be no issue. In fact, it positions the Sox to make some deals for players other etams cannot protect from the Rule 5 draft, like how the Sox acquired Colten Brewer. (Hopefully any new deals work out better.)

[Donnie Sadler was short]

He will answer, as he should, "Pay me what you contracted to pay me." Hardly matters whether he's released or kept on the roster, does it? THe RS owe him that money, will and should have to pay it, and it will and should count against the cap, right? (Or wait ... if they release him, and never put him on the roster, does that money count? or is he in Rusney Castillo land?)

 

I have no issues with paying him his contract...its really kinda pointless keeping him on the 40 man...and he should understand that. He'll be 37, hasnt played for 4 yrs by 2021...and I havent heard encouraging reports on him.

[moonslav59]

In HanRam's Red Sox career, 2016 was the outlier. Surely you're not disagreeing with that.

 

I'm disagreeing with your choice of sample period.

 

My point was about players already on the Sox from 2015 to 2016, and how that was the major reason for the "turnaround" not adding Price and Kimbrel. What happened in 2017 and 2018 don't take away from that point.

 

6 players improved their fWAR by 3 or more, including HRam & Porcello. 7 by 2.6 or more.

 

2015 was the outlier. 2017, 2018 and 2019 was related to age decline and 2015 was a signal it was coming.

[moonslav59]

Is there any reason to keep Pedey other than his service &sentimentality? They need to have a conversation with him & say...hey its time, we need to release you, how would you like to do it.

 

I doubt the 40th man on our roster will be someone we hate to DFA, so I think we can keep Pedey around, but if there is truly no hope of him playing in 2021, I don't think he'd mind being cut. We can offer him a job in the organization.

[mvp 78]

Is there any reason to keep Pedey other than his service &sentimentality? They need to have a conversation with him & say...hey its time, we need to release you, how would you like to do it.

 

No IL from WS-ST.

[moonslav59]

No IL from WS-ST.

 

True, but nobody from our 30-40 slots looking all that promising. (That's being generous.)

[moonslav59]

Once JBJ becomes a FA, we'll have 40 on the roster. With 6 Rule 5 players to add and 3-5 free agents, minimum, we may need to clear 9-12 slots.

 

Assuming no trades or additions, which is highly unlikely, here are the certain or near 18 certain keepers:

(listed by seniority on 40 man roster)

Vaz

Bogey

Barnes

ERod

Beni

Sale

Devers

JD

Eovaldi

Chavis

DHern

Dalbec

Perez

Verdugo

Pivetta

Munoz

Arroyo

Houck

 

11 Near Expendable:

Walden

Brasier

Brewer

Taylor

Weber

Arauz

Mazza

Plawecki

Valdez

Covey

Grullon

 

11 Expendable:

Pedey

Chatham

Hart

Wilson

Aybar

Peraza

Brice

Springs

Hall

Stock

Puello

Edited October 27, 2020 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

True, but nobody from our 30-40 slots looking all that promising. (That's being generous.)

 

If they need to, they can work around it. Better if they just don’t have to worry about it though.