A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

BMI is used best to track each person’s own personal growth. The numbers are guidelines only, yet the populous decided to use them as strict, cut and dry numbers to determine if someone was overweight or obese.

 

What's the name of the test that determines your muscle fat ratio?

 

Is that the one where you are submerged under water or something like that?

 

I'm sure Judge would come out okay on that one, whereas Pabloaf would be off the chart.

[dgalehouse]

What's the name of the test that determines your muscle fat ratio?

 

Is that the one where you are submerged under water or something like that?

 

I'm sure Judge would come out okay on that one, whereas Pabloaf would be off the chart.

 

Depends on just how long they kept him submerged.

[notin]

Depends on just how long they kept him submerged.

 

You cannot submerge Panda. But you can watch him beach himself until the tide comes in...

[Bellhorn04]

Same as with baseball defense.

 

Personally I think it's a lot more reliable with obesity, Dean.

[moonslav59]

Top Sox by WAR 2019-2020 combined:

(Only the pluses)

8.7 Bogey

6.6 Betts

6.5 Devers

4.9 Vaz

3.7 ERod

3.6 Sale

2.8 JBJ

2.3 Price

2.2 Workman

2.2 JD M

1.8 Moreland

1.8 Porcello

1.6 Verdugo

1.5 Beni

1.3 Holt

1.2 Barnes

0.8 Brasier

0.7 Taylor

0.7 DHern

0.7 Pillar

0.6 Dalbec

0.6 Eovaldi

0.4 Houck

0.4 Walden

0.3 Mazza

0.3 Plawecki

o.3 lakins

0.2 Munoz

0.2 Velazquez, Weber, Pivetta, Stock

0.1 Arroyo, Hembree, Covey, Valdez

[notin]

What's the name of the test that determines your muscle fat ratio?

 

 

There is always this test

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhUSlM6LzcU

[mvp 78]

Your numbers are very similar to mine.

 

Get on a diet fatties.

[mvp 78]

What's the name of the test that determines your muscle fat ratio?

 

Is that the one where you are submerged under water or something like that?

 

I'm sure Judge would come out okay on that one, whereas Pabloaf would be off the chart.

 

That's the Bacta Tank Test.

[Bellhorn04]

Get on a diet fatties.

 

I weigh less than most major league baseball players.

[moonslav59]

there is always this test

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhuslm6lzcu

 

lol!

[mvp 78]

I weigh less than most major league baseball players.

 

Ah, but do you take your height measurement with your cleats on or off?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Only seven more games at most before Alex Cora gets hired to manage in the MLB again. What are the odds it's Boston, Chicago or Detroit?

 

I'd say 51% Red Sox, because no one in the organization has yet to say it won't be AC, or that it will be someone new. There's also added incentive to act fast, because of competitor interest and to kickstart the offseason. Chicago has to be at least 33%, with the Tigers 16% at best.

Edited October 20, 2020 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[moonslav59]

Only seven more games at most before Alex Cora gets hired to manage in the MLB again. What are the odds it's Boston, Chicago or Detroit?

 

I'd say 51% Red Sox, because no one in the organization has yet to say it won't be AC, and that it will be someone new. There's also added incentive to act fast, because of competitor interest and to kickstart the offseason. Chicago has to be at least 33%, with the Tigers 16% at best.

 

I'd say 67% BOS, but maybe that's just my wishful thinking.

[mvp 78]

Only seven more games at most before Alex Cora gets hired to manage in the MLB again. What are the odds it's Boston, Chicago or Detroit?

 

I'd say 51% Red Sox, because no one in the organization has yet to say it won't be AC, or that it will be someone new. There's also added incentive to act fast, because of competitor interest and to kickstart the offseason. Chicago has to be at least 33%, with the Tigers 16% at best.

 

I'd go 40/30/10/20 (BOS/CHI/DET/NOBODY)

[moonslav59]

A look at our prospect rankings on soxprospects.com.

 

With so many additions, it's not surprising that many prospects fell in the rankings as players were slotted above them, but only 1 Sox prospect actually moved up in the rankings: Jarren Duran from #7 to #4 in the September Rankings:

 

https://www.soxprospects.com/index.html

 

Here is where our newbies were slotted (none in the top 10):

11. Jeisson Rosario (for Moreland)

12. Connor Seabold (w. Pivetta for Workman/Hembree)

15. Hudson Potts (for Moreland)

20. Jacob Wallace (for Pillar)

30. Deivy Grullon (waivers from PHI)

 

Draftee placements:

13. Nick Yorke

16. Blaze Jordon

37. Shane Drohan

 

Biggest drops in the September rankings (some due to additions not by poor play):

-7 Chatham

-5 Bello, Liu, Rodriguez, Wilson, Flores, Feltman, Aybar and many more

-4 Zeferjahn, Bonaci, Decker, Cannon

-3 Jordan

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Imagine our board's reaction to a Sox team that had these seasonal OPS by its top 9 hitters by most PAs:

.916

.813

.708

.777

.683

.679

.667

.741

.645

(.475 catcher with most PAs)

 

How many times have we heard, "You can't win with 2 black holes in the line-up?"

 

Tampa Bay had 5-6!

[oldtimer]

Imagine our board's reaction to a Sox team that had these seasonal OPS by its top 9 hitters by most PAs:

.916

.813

.708

.777

.683

.679

.667

.741

.645

(.475 catcher with most PAs)

 

How many times have we heard, "You can't win with 2 black holes in the line-up?"

 

Tampa Bay had 5-6!

 

Teams win in many ways. Pitching and defense for the Rays. Their doing it with a miniscule budget. When you can't afford the big bats, you have to get creative. The Dodgers have the best of both worlds

and yet haven't gone ultra big on contracts, although pounced on Mookie.

[mvp 78]

Imagine our board's reaction to a Sox team that had these seasonal OPS by its top 9 hitters by most PAs:

.916

.813

.708

.777

.683

.679

.667

.741

.645

(.475 catcher with most PAs)

 

How many times have we heard, "You can't win with 2 black holes in the line-up?"

 

Tampa Bay had 5-6!

 

Even though the OPS was low, the Rays still had the 3rd highest bWAR for team position players.

[Bellhorn04]

Even though the OPS was low, the Rays still had the 3rd highest bWAR for team position players.

 

How did they do it?

[notin]

How did they do it?

 

Roids.

 

(Or defense, which is part of bWAR)...

[mvp 78]

How did they do it?

 

Just being all around good?

 

Fangraphs disagrees though. 7th in dWAR. 8th in oWAR. 9th in fWAR. Only top 5 in BsR and BB%. Generally top half of the league otherwise.

[notin]

Just being all around good?

 

Fangraphs disagrees though. 7th in dWAR. 8th in oWAR. 9th in fWAR. Only top 5 in BsR and BB%. Generally top half of the league otherwise.

 

Where are you finding dWAR numbers on Fangraphs?

[mvp 78]

Where are you finding dWAR numbers on Fangraphs?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=20,d

 

Unless I'm misunderstanding dWAR?

 

oWAR, dWAR and fWAR are all Fangraphs (offensive, defensive and total) and bWAR is Baseball Ref???

[notin]

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=20,d

 

Unless I'm misunderstanding dWAR?

 

oWAR, dWAR and fWAR are all Fangraphs (offensive, defensive and total) and bWAR is Baseball Ref???

 

Well, you can use them similarly, but those Off and Def numbers next to WAR are based on defensive runs above average with a positional adjustment. They're components of fWAR, but not oWAR and dWAR actual numbers.

 

https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/def/

 

On that page, it looks like it could almost be Def/10 = dWAR, but if you try add them up that way, it doesn't appear to work out perfectly...

[notin]

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=20,d

 

Unless I'm misunderstanding dWAR?

 

oWAR, dWAR and fWAR are all Fangraphs (offensive, defensive and total) and bWAR is Baseball Ref???

 

Yes.

 

fWAR = WAR per Fangraphds formula.

 

bWAR = WAR per Baseball-Ref formula

 

oWAR = Offensive WAR. This is available on B-R in the "Player Value - Batting" section. Fangraphs has nothing with this label.

 

dWAR = defensive WAR. AGain, on B-R, in the "Player Value - Batting" section. Why Batting? No idea. But nothing called this on Fangraphs that I have seen...

[mvp 78]

I was confused about o and d then. I was just going by their components that factor into fWAR and it's not very clear on their website. Honestly, I think both Baseball Ref and Fangraphs are not very user friendly.

[notin]

I was confused about o and d then. I was just going by their components that factor into fWAR and it's not very clear on their website. Honestly, I think both Baseball Ref and Fangraphs are not very user friendly.

 

Fangraphs is a lot more user-friendly as they have a more comprehensive glossary and allow for easier comparisons that can be customized. I think B-R can do that, but only if you pay and since I don't, I do not know how good it gets.

 

But with defensive numbers, Fangraphs is better because they can be tabulated over multiple years more easily. The single year numbers on B-R don't really tell anything, because a good defensive evaluation shouldn't be based on a single year if you want an overall picture of a player.

 

Of course, even then, WAR numbers represent accomplishments and not ability. So there are always other factors that can influence them that cannot be accounted for no matter what, like the ability of the guy standing next to you...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

Of course, even then, WAR numbers represent accomplishments and not ability. So there are always other factors that can influence them that cannot be accounted for no matter what, like the ability of the guy standing next to you...

 

Or enthusiasm (or arrogance), if he's a ball hog... or apathy (or passiveness), if he lets you take all his action... or if he's just a peacenik, not a WARmonger.

[moonslav59]

Even though the OPS was low, the Rays still had the 3rd highest bWAR for team position players.

 

"Defense" and pitching.

[mvp 78]

"Defense" and pitching.

 

Their defense was fine. It wasn't otherworldly. I think they were just solid across the board pitching/defense/hitting.