A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

These seasons with lost time were not always TJ or floating body related.

 

That was the point I was trying to make.

 

I think he pitched 4 straight months in 2016 and 2018, but you have to go back to 2014 and 2015 to find the only seasons he pitched 5 straight. (I'm not even sure he didn't have to skip a start in those seasons, but I won't complain about 27 and 33 GS'd those two years way back when.

 

So 2014 and 2015? Way back then? Was Thunder even in high school in those years? That's a long time ago. I think Woodrow Wilson was still President...

[moonslav59]

We did? When was that? 60 game seasons don't count...

 

Also, he started 9 of a possible 12 starts (60/5=12).

 

That's 75% not 80%.

 

75% of a 40% season! For this, he should receive praise?

 

Whoop-dee-freakin'-doo!

[notin]

Also, he started 9 of a possible 12 starts (60/5=12).

 

That's 75% not 80%.

 

75% of a 40% season! For this, he should receive praise?

 

Whoop-dee-freakin'-doo!

 

Of course, the real problem here is that we can make all the arguments we want and provide all the supporting data and facts and interpretations of them as to why Eovldi should just be moved to the bullpen, which is an area of need for the Sox. At some point, they do have to add a few relievers, preferably ones who don't suck. So it's not like this idea is just dumping him off.

 

But all of this is not going to make a difference. I fully expect the Sox to put him in the rotation in 2021. At least to start the year...

[Bellhorn04]

Conjecture? What am I conjecting? (A much needed new word. Feel free to use it.)

 

Prior to his problems first arising in 2018, Chris Sale has thrown below 192 IP one time in his career as a starter. It's worth it to see if the surgery worked and he is rebuilt.

 

Eovaldi threw 199 IP as a starter in 2015 and has seen his IP decline rapidly every year since. From 2017 through 2019, Eovaldi threw 178 IP total. How many season s cut short by injury does he need to have to prove this point?

 

That he struggles to throw a full season as a starter is not conjecture; it's a conclusion...

 

All of us here can read the numbers on Baseball-Reference just fine.

 

But none of us know what the actual condition of Sale's and Eovaldi's arms are.

[mvp 78]

These seasons with lost time were not always TJ or floating body related.

 

That was the point I was trying to make.

 

I think he pitched 4 straight months in 2016 and 2018, but you have to go back to 2014 and 2015 to find the only seasons he pitched 5 straight. (I'm not even sure he didn't have to skip a start in those seasons, but I won't complain about 27 and 33 GS'd those two years way back when.

 

But that's like saying "Beckett couldn't pitch a whole season because of his annual blister issues that caused him to skip a day or two."

[moonslav59]

But that's like saying "Beckett couldn't pitch a whole season because of his annual blister issues that caused him to skip a day or two."

 

Not really. Becket was an innings eater who missed a start here and there.

 

My point was about Eovaldi's missed time not being only TJS-related.

[moonslav59]

Of course, the real problem here is that we can make all the arguments we want and provide all the supporting data and facts and interpretations of them as to why Eovldi should just be moved to the bullpen, which is an area of need for the Sox. At some point, they do have to add a few relievers, preferably ones who don't suck. So it's not like this idea is just dumping him off.

 

But all of this is not going to make a difference. I fully expect the Sox to put him in the rotation in 2021. At least to start the year...

 

I'm not against the idea of making him one of baseball's most expensive closer, who might still get hurt, but I'd rather put some feelers out there for a possible trade.

 

I know I sound down on him, but I'm not for just handing him away. He's still worth a gamble, but not at $17M x 2.

 

Over the weekend, I'm going to look at better suggestions than the Longoria/Yaz one.

[notin]

I'm not against the idea of making him one of baseball's most expensive closer, who might still get hurt, but I'd rather put some feelers out there for a possible trade.

 

I know I sound down on him, but I'm not for just handing him away. He's still worth a gamble, but not at $17M x 2.

 

Over the weekend, I'm going to look at better suggestions than the Longoria/Yaz one.

 

I think they have reached a point where pitchin g is so thin, they have to figure out how to utilize what they have. Dealing Eovaldi might make sense in some cases, but overall it just looks like it will make a bad situation worse.

 

And in some respects, I think Bloom sees this, which is why we do not have Rougned Odor....

[notin]

But that's like saying "Beckett couldn't pitch a whole season because of his annual blister issues that caused him to skip a day or two."

 

 

No it's not. Find a stretch in Beckett's career where he pitched as few as 178 IP over 3 seasons. (Hint: You can't. He topped that total even in the last 3 years of his career as it was winding down)...

[notin]

All of us here can read the numbers on Baseball-Reference just fine.

 

But none of us know what the actual condition of Sale's and Eovaldi's arms are.

 

We do not. But we all know which one has the much more significant history. So, two questions:

 

1. Would you agree Sale deserves a shot back at his old role when he is healthy?

 

2. And do you think Eovaldi's long injury-plagued career is miraculously changed?

 

As I have said before, my concerns regarding Eovaldi have never been about talent...

[Bellhorn04]

We do not. But we all know which one has the much more significant history. So, two questions:

 

1. Would you agree Sale deserves a shot back at his old role when he is healthy?

 

2. And do you think Eovaldi's long injury-plagued career is miraculously changed?

 

As I have said before, my concerns regarding Eovaldi have never been about talent...

 

1. Of course I agree Sale should get a shot at his old role.

2. I don't have the answer about Eovaldi. It's a medical question. All I know is that he looked great at the end of the season, healthy and pitching at a high level. Can you do that if you're injured? No.

[notin]

1. Of course I agree Sale should get a shot at his old role.

2. I don't have the answer about Eovaldi. It's a medical question. All I know is that he looked great at the end of the season, healthy and pitching at a high level. Can you do that if you're injured? No.

 

He was pitching at a high level because he is a n elite talent. He is one of the hardest throwing starting pitchers year in and year out. He's very freakish in that most starting ptichers who throw as hard ashe does have a entic advantage by being very tall, and therefore have longer arms to get greater momentum going on their fastball.

 

But don't forget, last year, he still only threw 48 innings, short season or not. And last year was not proof he can throw at high level for 150-180 IP. If 2020 was a regular schedule, his recent history does suggest he would not have reached that total. Especially now that he is entering his 30s...

[oldtimer]

NESEN took a shot at next years starting roster.

 

https://nesn.com/2020/10/red-sox-offseason-preview-way-too-early-opening-day-roster-projection/

 

I doubt if Chavis makes the infield and I also doubt if Beni makes the outfield. JDM is no more than an emergency outfielder so I see the outfield as Verdugo, Duran and a replacement with Munoz, who Nesen left off as the ultility outfielder. Realmuto at catcher for Vaz is questionable. Do we really need to go big at catcher?

 

Three new names at pitcher. All seem to be reasonable.

[moonslav59]

I think they have reached a point where pitchin g is so thin, they have to figure out how to utilize what they have. Dealing Eovaldi might make sense in some cases, but overall it just looks like it will make a bad situation worse.

 

And in some respects, I think Bloom sees this, which is why we do not have Rougned Odor....

 

I agree, and the only way I'm for trading Eovaldi is if it expands the spending budget to allow us to improve our pitching by more than keeping Eovaldi.

 

Of course, by pessimistic outlook on what Eovaldi will give us over the next two years differs from some here, and I'm fine with that. I'd like nothing more than to keep a healthy Eovaldi and make the playoffs, next year and seriously compete in 2022. He is certainly capable of dominating. I will never forget what he did in 2018. He was inspiring to everyone, including his teammates and fello SP'ers who lined up at Cora's door asking for double duty.

 

My philosophy on where this team is at is focused more on longer term gains. Yes, I want to make the playoffs, next year, but I'm more focused on 2022 and beyond, and since Eovaldi is not under control beyond 2022, he's on my trade to upgrade list. This is not a list of trade for the best you can get, like I suggested last year for our free-agents-to-be. This is different. 2 years is 2 years not 2 months.

[moonslav59]

NESEN took a shot at next years starting roster.

 

https://nesn.com/2020/10/red-sox-offseason-preview-way-too-early-opening-day-roster-projection/

 

I doubt if Chavis makes the infield and I also doubt if Beni makes the outfield. JDM is no more than an emergency outfielder so I see the outfield as Verdugo, Duran and a replacement with Munoz, who Nesen left off as the ultility outfielder. Realmuto at catcher for Vaz is questionable. Do we really need to go big at catcher?

 

Three new names at pitcher. All seem to be reasonable.

 

I don't like any of the pitchers, except maybe Liam Hendricks.

 

Not adding an outside OF'er is probably their biggest "mistake."

 

I only go for Realmuto, if we can get something very good for Vaz. Even then, I'd prefer going bigger on pitching not catching.

 

Munoz isn't listed as the IF utility, either. They may not realize Arauz does not need to remain on the 26 man roster, anymore.

[harmony]

The reasons that some Talksox posters are down on Nathan Eovaldi are the same reasons potential trade partners are likely to be down on Eovaldi.

 

The Eovaldi contract raised eyebrows at the time of signing and looks even more questionable today.

 

The Red Sox should stick Eovaldi into the 2021 starting rotation and hope for the best.

[moonslav59]

The reasons that some Talksox posters are down on Nathan Eovaldi are the same reasons potential trade partners are likely to be down on Eovaldi.

 

The Eovaldi contract raised eyebrows at the time of signing and looks even more questionable today.

 

The Red Sox should stick Eovaldi into the 2021 starting rotation and hope for the best.

 

I get that. Not surprisingly, it's also the posters not so down on Eovaldi that resist all talk of trading him.

 

GMs often have interest in oft-injured pitchers, especially those that ended the previous season looking well.

 

Eovaldi has trade value. It's just not $17M x 2.

 

I'm not expecting to get $17M x 2 value back.

[mvp 78]

The reasons that some Talksox posters are down on Nathan Eovaldi are the same reasons potential trade partners are likely to be down on Eovaldi.

 

The Eovaldi contract raised eyebrows at the time of signing and looks even more questionable today.

 

The Red Sox should stick Eovaldi into the 2021 starting rotation and hope for the best.

 

You don't think TalkSox posters couldn't collectively hoodwink an MLB GM?!?!?

[notin]

The reasons that some Talksox posters are down on Nathan Eovaldi are the same reasons potential trade partners are likely to be down on Eovaldi.

 

The Eovaldi contract raised eyebrows at the time of signing and looks even more questionable today.

 

The Red Sox should stick Eovaldi into the 2021 starting rotation and hope for the best.

 

Well, most of moon' trade posts involving Eovaldi always include an unfavorable contract coming back. This can be mutually advantageous for a team with an expensive player with a low AAV but a lot of money remaining, like Rougned Odor, since most teams are rarely up against the tax limit and therefore don't care about the AAV. They do, however, care about the money still owed. That was why the Padres were so willing to discuss Wil Myers last off-season...

[moonslav59]

Well, most of moon' trade posts involving Eovaldi always include an unfavorable contract coming back. This can be mutually advantageous for a team with an expensive player with a low AAV but a lot of money remaining, like Rougned Odor, since most teams are rarely up against the tax limit and therefore don't care about the AAV. They do, however, care about the money still owed. That was why the Padres were so willing to discuss Wil Myers last off-season...

 

Exactly. You put it better than I ever could.

 

Looking for incentives for other teams to make deals involving a good player(s) with several years of team control is how we can fill a vital gap on our winter roster without spending big money on a FA.

 

Granted, trading Eovaldi opens up another gap, assuming he was going to fill his own slot by being healthy, but my basic idea is that the trade might help the other team save some money and get a pitcher that may give them excellence while saving us money on the Lux tax budget. Now, the Longoria idea involved us paying too much actual dollars, so the lux tax savings were more than negated, but I'll offer some more ideas this weekend.

 

(I know some of you are on the edge of your seat! LOL)

[moonslav59]

You don't think TalkSox posters couldn't collectively hoodwink an MLB GM?!?!?

 

Somehow, they hoodwinked our own GM to bring Masterson back, despite my objections.

[mvp 78]

Somehow, they hoodwinked our own GM to bring Masterson back, despite my objections.

 

It was the high socks. All players should have the high socks.

[harmony]

Exactly. You put it better than I ever could.

 

Looking for incentives for other teams to make deals involving a good player(s) with several years of team control is how we can fill a vital gap on our winter roster without spending big money on a FA.

 

Granted, trading Eovaldi opens up another gap, assuming he was going to fill his own slot by being healthy, but my basic idea is that the trade might help the other team save some money and get a pitcher that may give them excellence while saving us money on the Lux tax budget. Now, the Longoria idea involved us paying too much actual dollars, so the lux tax savings were more than negated, but I'll offer some more ideas this weekend.

 

(I know some of you are on the edge of your seat! LOL)

The Evan Longoria proposal perhaps has the most merit.

 

Cot's Baseball Contracts reports that Tampa Bay is responsible for $7.33 million of the $43.33 million remaining on Longoria's contract:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mJmiNy5aP9WMJ-FrbiPZ8dR9ymXcRnA2AKLsIipeONg/edit#gid=1520401900

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm one of those posters: freeing up Eovaldi money to reinvest in another pitcher with more-or-less potential and also taking on another bad contract doesn't interest me. The only reason I'd trade a guy with Eovaldi's stuff -- off an utterly, historically bad staff -- is if the Sox receive a legitimate rotation prospect in return. And the only way that might happen is if Nate has a great half-season -- missing zero starts -- and a contender is willing to bite. Let's see where he and we are at by the next trade deadline... Otherwise, leave Nate alone at the back of the rotation, where he'll be the least of our worries.

 

The Rays hit big on Arozorena, but only because they were willing (and able) to trade a pitcher who was the 16th overall pick a few years ago. We'll be lucky if Bloom can flip a guy like Munoz for a hurler who was once a 116th overall pick.

[moonslav59]

The Evan Longoria proposal perhaps has the most merit.

 

Cot's Baseball Contracts reports that Tampa Bay is responsible for $7.33 million of the $43.33 million remaining on Longoria's contract:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mJmiNy5aP9WMJ-FrbiPZ8dR9ymXcRnA2AKLsIipeONg/edit#gid=1520401900

 

So, that basically evens up the money: Eovaldi $34M and Longoria $36M.

 

However, the lux tax hit is $11M for Longoria (big help to BOS), while Eovaldi's is $17M (no diff to SF).

[notin]

The Evan Longoria proposal perhaps has the most merit.

 

Cot's Baseball Contracts reports that Tampa Bay is responsible for $7.33 million of the $43.33 million remaining on Longoria's contract:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mJmiNy5aP9WMJ-FrbiPZ8dR9ymXcRnA2AKLsIipeONg/edit#gid=1520401900

 

I believe if San Fran deals him, they can still keep that money. It's just paid to the Padres and does not have to be earmarked for Longoria. Of course, if they kept it, Boston might insist on an even greater return...

[notin]

I'm one of those posters: freeing up Eovaldi money to reinvest in another pitcher with more-or-less potential and also taking on another bad contract doesn't interest me. The only reason I'd trade a guy with Eovaldi's stuff -- off an utterly, historically bad staff -- is if the Sox receive a legitimate rotation prospect in return. And the only way that might happen is if Nate has a great half-season -- missing zero starts -- and a contender is willing to bite. Let's see where he and we are at by the next trade deadline... Otherwise, leave Nate alone at the back of the rotation, where he'll be the least of our worries.

 

The Rays hit big on Arozorena, but only because they were willing (and able) to trade a pitcher who was the 16th overall pick a few years ago. We'll be lucky if Bloom can flip a guy like Munoz for a hurler who was once a 116th overall pick.

 

Yeah I'm not really sure why our equivalent to Liberatore is Yairo Munoz....

[moonslav59]

Here's one BTV shows is an exactly even swap:

 

Eovaldi, Chavis & Jimenez

for

Pollock and Gray (good young pitcher)

 

Plollock is owed $36M/2 assuming option not taken on 3rd year or $41M/3 otherwise. His AVV is "only" $12M, which is $5M less than Eovaldi's. So, the Dodgers save $2M, but our lux tax budget is $5M lower for the next 2 years.

 

We get a good young pitcher and a decent CF'er that fills a gaping hole.LA has OF depth to take Pollock's slot, and they get a SP'er and a couple other players with promise.

 

I'd guess LA would say no, but I'm sure many here think the deal is bad for us.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi, Dalbec & Duran

for

Pollock and Gonsolin

[notin]

Eovaldi, Dalbec & Duran

for

Pollock and Gonsolin

 

Friedman wouldn't give up Gonsolin to get Betts. Safe bet he won't do it to get Eovaldi and company.

 

I think prying young pitching from the Dodgers is harder to do than prying a chocolate-covered meatloaf away from Pablo Sandoval...