A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

Friedman wouldn't give up Gonsolin to get Betts. Safe bet he won't do it to get Eovaldi and company.

 

I think prying young pitching from the Dodgers is harder to do than prying a chocolate-covered meatloaf away from Pablo Sandoval...

 

Probably right, but they are getting some young talent back.

 

Here's one with SD:

 

Eovaldi & Chavis

for

Myers and Lucchesi

 

Myers is owed $41M/2 compared to Eovaldi's $34M/2, so they save $7M. Myers Lux hit is just $13M/yr, so we create $4M/yr on the tax budget. We get a pitcher we need.

 

3 Way:

 

To BOS: Castillo, Lucchesi, Mejia, Myers & Kiermaier

 

To SD: Eovaldi, Chavis, Johnson

 

To TB: Vazquez

 

You'll love this one (sarcasm alert):

 

To BOS: Anderson, Campusano, Myers, Kiermaier

To SD: Eovaldi, Dalbec, Ryan

To TB: Vazquez, Beni, Duran, Chavis

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Friedman wouldn't give up Gonsolin to get Betts. Safe bet he won't do it to get Eovaldi and company.

 

I think prying young pitching from the Dodgers is harder to do than prying a chocolate-covered meatloaf away from Pablo Sandoval...

 

Gotta lotta nerve using the words "Pablo" and "loaf" in the same sentence when it comes to chocolate.

[moonslav59]

Gotta lotta nerve using the words "Pablo" and "loaf" in the same sentence when it comes to chocolate.

 

We should have thought of the nickname "Pabloaf" way back when.

[harmony]

Here's one BTV shows is an exactly even swap:

 

Eovaldi, Chavis & Jimenez

for

Pollock and Gray (good young pitcher)

 

Plollock is owed $36M/2 assuming option not taken on 3rd year or $41M/3 otherwise. His AVV is "only" $12M, which is $5M less than Eovaldi's. So, the Dodgers save $2M, but our lux tax budget is $5M lower for the next 2 years.

 

We get a good young pitcher and a decent CF'er that fills a gaping hole.LA has OF depth to take Pollock's slot, and they get a SP'er and a couple other players with promise.

 

I'd guess LA would say no, but I'm sure many here think the deal is bad for us.

And the Dodgers would add to their luxury tax calculation.

 

The Dodgers, who gave out a 12-year, $365 million contract, probably have more luxury tax concerns than the Red Sox.

[notin]

Gotta lotta nerve using the words "Pablo" and "loaf" in the same sentence when it comes to chocolate.

 

According to Pablo, a chocolate loaf is a mere appetizer..

[moonslav59]

And the Dodgers would add to their luxury tax calculation.

 

The Dodgers, who gave out a 12-year, $365 million contract, probably have more luxury tax concerns than the Red Sox.

 

The tax probably balances out the $2M they save on actual contract cost. (20% of $5M is $1M x 2 years is $2M.)

 

Here's another one:

 

Eovaldi & Chavis

for

Odor, Trevino, Taveras & Palumbo

 

[oldtimer]

The tax probably balances out the $2M they save on actual contract cost. (20% of $5M is $1M x 2 years is $2M.)

 

Here's another one:

 

Eovaldi & Chavis

for

Odor, Trevino, Taveras & Palumbo

 

 

I don't get a the kick out of proposing trades that you seem to. I expect Bloom has many possibilities in front of him and ultimately, he will make the decision. His guidelines have been stated and they are to make the team consistently competitive at a high level. Since we are going from non-competitive in 2020, I am willing to give him time to achieve his vision for the team. What the Rays have achieved gives some insight into his approach, although with the Sox, he should have additional resources.

 

My hope is that he will be willing to get rid of poor performers no matter that they might be fan favorites. He did it with Betts, who was a great performer for us but his salary demands and length of contract did not fit the long term vision The Betts deal indicates to me that Bloom will make moves that are necessary. We will see the first round with FAs after the WS is completed.

[moonslav59]

I don't get a the kick out of proposing trades that you seem to. I expect Bloom has many possibilities in front of him and ultimately, he will make the decision. His guidelines have been stated and they are to make the team consistently competitive at a high level. Since we are going from non-competitive in 2020, I am willing to give him time to achieve his vision for the team. What the Rays have achieved gives some insight into his approach, although with the Sox, he should have additional resources.

 

My hope is that he will be willing to get rid of poor performers no matter that they might be fan favorites. He did it with Betts, who was a great performer for us but his salary demands and length of contract did not fit the long term vision The Betts deal indicates to me that Bloom will make moves that are necessary. We will see the first round with FAs after the WS is completed.

 

I doubt Bloom makes a deal similar to what I have been suggesting, recently. I think I've just about run out of these types of suggested deals.

 

I do think Bloom will make 2-3 trades, although some might be minor.

 

Some of his free agent signings might be head-scratchers, but I think he makes a few we mostly will like.

[moonslav59]

thegamehaus projects these FA contracts:

 

$200M/7 Bauer

$185M/6 Realmuto

$150M/6 Springer

$140M/6 Stroman

$90M/4 LeMahieu

$85M/5 Semien

$45M/3 Brantley

$25M/2 Turner

$15M/1 N Cruz

 

 

[moonslav59]

The Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 World Series trips after losing their previous 4 WS all by 4-3 margins.

 

The Sox went 16-3 in those 4 series, not losing a cumulative number of games to lose even one series!

 

Another interesting fact about once you make the playoffs, it's a "crap shoot." Not so much for the Sox since 2004. We've made the playoffs 9 times and won it all in 4 of them!

 

Of the 5 times we did not win it all, we only made the ALCS, once (and lost it 4-3). That 15 years stretch (2004-2018) was amazing. We made the playoffs 60% of the time and won it all 27% of the time- nearly one out of 3 years!

 

We came close in 2003,losing the ALCS 4-3, so if you count 2003, we made the playoffs 10 out of 16 times (63%), the ALCS 6/16 (38%) and the WS 25% of the time.

 

Let's hope Bloom sets us on the way for something similar to that!

[moonslav59]

thegamehaus projects these FA contracts:

 

$200M/7 Bauer

$185M/6 Realmuto

$150M/6 Springer

$140M/6 Stroman

$90M/4 LeMahieu

$85M/5 Semien

$45M/3 Brantley

$25M/2 Turner

$15M/1 N Cruz

 

I'd rank these signings and numbers, in terms of who I'd sign as the Sox GM like this:

1. Semien (not thrilled with this guys, but way cheaper than Bauer & Stroman)

2. Brantley (not thrilled with signing a corner OF'er over CF, but the money seems better than others, here)

3. Turner (move Devers to 1B and trade Dalbec?)

4. Stroman (too expensive, but likely a better deal than Bauer)

5, Bauer (close call)

6. Springer (close but a no-go for me)

7. LeMahieu (need a 2Bman but not at this cost)

8. Cruz (don't need a DH)

9. Realmuto (most catchers crash hard as they age)

 

[harmony]

Gotta lotta nerve using the words "Pablo" and "loaf" in the same sentence when it comes to chocolate.

Elsewhere a poster wrote: "Devers is so much more talented then Panda is/was. Panda might have been pretty good, but Devers has MVP potential and has already proven that."

 

In response:

 

Rafael Devers has posted an OPS+ of 115 and 8.2 fWAR in 392 games as he approaches his 24th birthday this week:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rafael-devers/17350/stats?position=3B

 

Pablo Sandoval posted and OPS+ of 122 and 7.3 fWAR in his first 346 games over three regular seasons that ended less than two months after his 24th birthday:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/pablo-sandoval/5409/stats?position=3B

 

Over the those periods Devers posted at a rate of 2.10 fWAR per 100 games and Sandoval 2.11 fWAR per 100 games. Devers posted 6.1 bWAR and Sandoval 6.9 bWAR.

 

FWIW Devers finished 12th in the AL MVP voting in his age 22 season while Sandoval finished seventh in the NL MVP voting in his age 22 season. Each contributed to a World Series title at a young age.

 

The career paths of Devers and Sandoval may diverge but they had similar production in their early MLB careers.

Edited October 18, 2020 by harmony

[oldtimer]

I'd rank these signings and numbers, in terms of who I'd sign as the Sox GM like this:

1. Semien (not thrilled with this guys, but way cheaper than Bauer & Stroman)

2. Brantley (not thrilled with signing a corner OF'er over CF, but the money seems better than others, here)

3. Turner (move Devers to 1B and trade Dalbec?)

4. Stroman (too expensive, but likely a better deal than Bauer)

5, Bauer (close call)

6. Springer (close but a no-go for me)

7. LeMahieu (need a 2Bman but not at this cost)

8. Cruz (don't need a DH)

9. Realmuto (most catchers crash hard as they age)

 

 

If Bloom goes after a FA outfielder through trade or free agency, I would hope we would get someone with a little more consistent power. Verdugo should have right field sewed up and Duran or one of a couple of other prospects are capable of playing center so that leaves left field. I don't believe Chavis is a long term solution and Beni has very little pop even when hitting. Find a LF player.

[notin]

Elsewhere a poster wrote: "Devers is so much more talented then Panda is/was. Panda might have been pretty good, but Devers has MVP potential and has already proven that."

 

In response:

 

Rafael Devers has posted an OPS+ of 115 and 8.2 fWAR in 392 games as he approaches his 24th birthday this week:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rafael-devers/17350/stats?position=3B

 

Pablo Sandoval posted and OPS+ of 122 and 7.3 fWAR in his first 346 games over three regular seasons that ended less than two months after his 24th birthday:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/pablo-sandoval/5409/stats?position=3B

 

Over the those periods Devers posted at a rate of 2.10 fWAR per 100 games and Sandoval 2.11 fWAR per 100 games. Devers posted 6.1 bWAR and Sandoval 6.9 bWAR.

 

FWIW Devers finished 12th in the AL MVP voting in his age 22 season while Sandoval finished seventh in the NL MVP voting in his age 22 season. Each contributed to a World Series title at a young age.

 

The career paths of Devers and Sandoval may diverge but they had similar production in their early MLB careers.

 

 

Now compare their weights at both ages.

 

There is a reason they call him Kung Fu Panda Express...

[notin]

thegamehaus projects these FA contracts:

 

$200M/7 Bauer

$185M/6 Realmuto

$150M/6 Springer

$140M/6 Stroman

$90M/4 LeMahieu

$85M/5 Semien

$45M/3 Brantley

$25M/2 Turner

$15M/1 N Cruz

 

 

 

 

Bloom passes on all at those numbers. Except maybe Stroman...

[harmony]

Now compare their weights at both ages.

 

There is a reason they call him Kung Fu Panda Express...

FWIW Rafael Devers' current listed height and weight of 6-foot-0, 240 pounds, give him a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 32.5, safely in the obese range:

 

https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/educational/lose_wt/BMI/bmicalc.htm

 

BMI is not always fair to athletes (and some non-athletes).

[dgalehouse]

FWIW Rafael Devers' current listed height and weight of 6-foot-0, 240 pounds, give him a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 32.5, safely in the obese range:

 

https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/educational/lose_wt/BMI/bmicalc.htm

 

BMI is not always fair to athletes (and some non-athletes).

 

The Cooler.

[moonslav59]

Bloom passes on all at those numbers. Except maybe Stroman...

 

I liked Stroman, but I wasn't expecting that price tag.

[oldtimer]

FWIW Rafael Devers' current listed height and weight of 6-foot-0, 240 pounds, give him a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 32.5, safely in the obese range:

 

https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/educational/lose_wt/BMI/bmicalc.htm

 

BMI is not always fair to athletes (and some non-athletes).

 

240 pounds

Sandoval broke into the big leagues in 2008 and was listed at 240 pounds at the time. In his first full rookie season in 2009 and at the young age of 23, the Kung Fu Panda batted .Apr 16, 2013

 

Sandoval was 5'10" 240 pounds and is now 268. Will Devers trim down or balloon up?

[jad]

I'm skeptical of that weight, as other sources (some from last year) list him from 195-210. Are you saying he put on 30 pounds in a year?

[harmony]

I'm skeptical of that weight, as other sources (some from last year) list him from 195-210. Are you saying he put on 30 pounds in a year?

The MLB Red Sox website and Baseball Reference currently list Rafael Devers at 240 pounds:

 

40-Man Roster | Boston Red Sox

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml

 

Under "Young Graduates," SoxProspects lists Devers at 235 pounds:

 

https://soxprospects.com/players/devers-rafael.htm

 

Wikipedia lists Devers at 195 and 210 pounds:

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=rafael+devers+weight&rlz=1C1KGNW_enUS836US836&oq=rafael+devers+weight&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i457j0i22i30l2.15742j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

 

More on Devers' weight:

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2020/07/rafael-devers-makes-another-error-but-boston-red-soxs-ron-roenicke-not-worried-about-his-defense-or-shape-hes-in-compared-to-spring.html

Edited October 19, 2020 by harmony

[Bellhorn04]

FWIW Rafael Devers' current listed height and weight of 6-foot-0, 240 pounds, give him a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 32.5, safely in the obese range:

 

https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/educational/lose_wt/BMI/bmicalc.htm

 

BMI is not always fair to athletes (and some non-athletes).

 

Yes, Aaron Judge (6'7" 282 pounds, 31.5 BMI), for one would probably object to being called obese.

[harmony]

Yes, Aaron Judge (6'7" 282 pounds, 31.5 BMI), for one would probably object to being called obese.

This merely overweight poster (5'10" 209 pounds, 30.0 BMI) would object as well.

[Bellhorn04]

This merely overweight poster (5'10" 209 pounds, 30.0 BMI) would object as well.

 

Your numbers are very similar to mine.

[oldtimer]

Yes, Aaron Judge (6'7" 282 pounds, 31.5 BMI), for one would probably object to being called obese.

 

I have heard that Judge is down to around 265.

[notin]

I have heard that Judge is down to around 265.

 

No. That’s his average days per year on IL...

[jacksonianmarch]

BMI is used best to track each person’s own personal growth. The numbers are guidelines only, yet the populous decided to use them as strict, cut and dry numbers to determine if someone was overweight or obese.

[Bellhorn04]

BMI is used best to track each person’s own personal growth. The numbers are guidelines only, yet the populous decided to use them as strict, cut and dry numbers to determine if someone was overweight or obese.

 

That explains it.

[Bellhorn04]

With obesity, the eye test usually works pretty well.

[dgalehouse]

With obesity, the eye test usually works pretty well.

 

Same as with baseball defense.