A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

I disagree. Pedroia's mobility would be severely diminished. He'd be a negative dWAR guy, probably worst 2b in the league. Probably couldn't leg out any hits that didn't roll to the warning track.

 

Hey, someone has to be the worst defensive 2B in MLB. Can't let it be Robinson Cano every year...

[mvp 78]

Hey, someone has to be the worst defensive 2B in MLB. Can't let it be Robinson Cano every year...

 

According to dWAR, Robby is fine. Guys like Merrifield and Altuve are a bigger concern in the field. I have to give it to Altuve, he has a flair for the dramatic in the postseason.

[notin]

According to dWAR, Robby is fine. Guys like Merrifield and Altuve are a bigger concern in the field. I have to give it to Altuve, he has a flair for the dramatic in the postseason.

 

His dWAR the last two seasons were -.5 and -.4. Not sue I'd call him "fine". His -5 DRS does get him close to the bottom of the list. Altuve does grade out worse, though, you are correct Keston Hiura does as well...

[moonslav59]

If moving Devers to 1B is a real possibility, what would SF give us for taking Longoria's contract off their hands? Maybe Yaz?

 

Longoria has one of those deals that works better for a team trying to minimize luxury tax payments. He's owed $43.3M/2, but his lux tax number is just $11.2M x 2.

 

BTV accepted these trades:

 

Eovaldi, Beni, Chavis & Duran for Longoria & Yaz

 

Chavis & Beni for Longoria, Dubon, Bailey & Ramos

 

Dalbec & Duran for Longoria, Yaz, Moronta & Bailey

 

Before anybody goes into a rant about how much Longoria sucks, this trade suggestion is NOT about getting Longoria. It would be about getting Yaz or some other good young talent to offset the financial hit.

[notin]

If moving Devers to 1B is a real possibility, what would SF give us for taking Longoria's contract off their hands? Maybe Yaz?

 

Longoria has one of those deals that works better for a team trying to minimize luxury tax payments. He's owed $43.3M/2, but his lux tax number is just $11.2M x 2.

 

BTV accepted these trades:

 

Eovaldi, Beni, Chavis & Duran for Longoria & Yaz

 

Chavis & Beni for Longoria, Dubon, Bailey & Ramos

 

Dalbec & Duran for Longoria, Yaz, Moronta & Bailey

 

Before anybody goes into a rant about how much Longoria sucks, this trade suggestion is NOT about getting Longoria. It would be about getting Yaz or some other good young talent to offset the financial hit.

 

If the Sox want good, young talent, Mike Yastrzemski is 30. He has been great the last two years, but it getting him going to make getting Longoria worth while?

 

Evan Longoria is going to make $43 million over the next 2 seasons. The Sox could probably sign Michael Brantley for a lot less and watch him hit similarly if not better than Yastrzemski.

 

Yastrzemski would be a good get for the Sox, but not for $43 million. So unless Longoria can actually contribute himself in some way, I wouldn't make that deal.

 

 

Plus... pitching?

[mvp 78]

Yaz 2 is a good story, but he'll be 31 next year and never hit 20 HR's until last season. He bounced around the Orioles system for 6 years. He has flash in the pan written all over him.

 

Worse, his family doesn't want him to play for the Sox because they think it'd be too much pressure for him.

[moonslav59]

Yaz 2 is a good story, but he'll be 31 next year and never hit 20 HR's until last season. He bounced around the Orioles system for 6 years. He has flash in the pan written all over him.

 

Worse, his family doesn't want him to play for the Sox because they think it'd be too much pressure for him.

 

He's got 31 HRs in 636 career PAs, so I would not diss his power.

 

Yes, he is old for someone who is pore-arb with 4+ years of team control.

[moonslav59]

If the Sox want good, young talent, Mike Yastrzemski is 30. He has been great the last two years, but it getting him going to make getting Longoria worth while?

 

Evan Longoria is going to make $43 million over the next 2 seasons. The Sox could probably sign Michael Brantley for a lot less and watch him hit similarly if not better than Yastrzemski.

 

Yastrzemski would be a good get for the Sox, but not for $43 million. So unless Longoria can actually contribute himself in some way, I wouldn't make that deal.

 

 

Plus... pitching?

 

Count losing Eovaldi's deal and it's not $43M.

[notin]

Count losing Eovaldi's deal and it's not $43M.

 

Until you replace Eovaldi...

[mvp 78]

He's got 31 HRs in 636 career PAs, so I would not diss his power.

 

Yes, he is old for someone who is pore-arb with 4+ years of team control.

 

Now look at his power numbers prior to 2019... He'll be 31 next season. He's not an up and coming prospect.

[moonslav59]

Now look at his power numbers prior to 2019... He'll be 31 next season. He's not an up and coming prospect.

 

No, and that's why I mentioned "or young talent." I'm not stuck on Yaz as the return, but we do need an OF'er.

[moonslav59]

Until you replace Eovaldi...

 

True, but work from the $9M number not $43M (43-34), and when you count the lux tax number, we actually gain spending space ($17M a year - $11M for Longoria)..

[notin]

No, and that's why I mentioned "or young talent." I'm not stuck on Yaz as the return, but we do need an OF'er.

 

Mike Yastrzmeski would be a nice PR coup, but as a player his future is pretty undetermined. He's 30 years old with 161 games (or one full season) under his belt...

[moonslav59]

Now look at his power numbers prior to 2019... He'll be 31 next season. He's not an up and coming prospect.

 

Okay. AAA, he had 37 Hrs in just over 1200 PAs. That's about 20 per 650, and when you figure he walks a lot. His HRs per AB showed power in AAA. (22 per 650 ABs) Not great power, but decent.

 

He also had 79 2B+3B in AAA, so 116 XBHs and a .442 SLG%- pretty close to Dalbec's .478- someone known for his "power."

 

A .442 SLG% with a .251 BA shows substantial power in AAA.

[notin]

Okay. AAA, he had 37 Hrs in just over 1200 PAs. That's about 20 per 650, and when you figure he walks a lot. His HRs per AB showed power in AAA. (22 per 650 ABs) Not great power, but decent.

 

He also had 79 2B+3B in AAA, so 116 XBHs and a .442 SLG%- pretty close to Dalbec's .478- someone known for his "power."

 

A .442 SLG% with a .251 BA shows substantial power in AAA.

 

That RF in San Fran is pretty immense, too. Have to wonder if it suppresses his home run power much like it does to Brandon Belt. (Belt has hit 274 of hi 502 career HRs on the road.)

 

Mike Yaz has 17 of his 31 HRs on the road. Not a ridiculous split, but we are talking about only one full season worth of data.

 

If the Sox are taking a bad contract from the Giants, I would prefer Belt (1 yr / $17.2mill) over Longoria. There are legitimate durability concerns with Belt and his propensity for concussions, but it's only for one year...

[moonslav59]

That RF in San Fran is pretty immense, too. Have to wonder if it suppresses his home run power much like it does to Brandon Belt. (Belt has hit 274 of hi 502 career HRs on the road.)

 

Mike Yaz has 17 of his 31 HRs on the road. Not a ridiculous split, but we are talking about only one full season worth of data.

 

If the Sox are taking a bad contract from the Giants, I would prefer Belt (1 yr / $17.2mill) over Longoria. There are legitimate durability concerns with Belt and his propensity for concussions, but it's only for one year...

 

Like I said, I don't want Longoria. Getting him over Belt increases the return, and Longoria's small lux tax hit is a big plus for the Sox, and means nothing to SF.

[notin]

Like I said, I don't want Longoria. Getting him over Belt increases the return, and Longoria's small lux tax hit is a big plus for the Sox, and means nothing to SF.

 

Belt's hit is negligible, since they just reset and he is gone after one year...

[moonslav59]

Belt's hit is negligible, since they just reset and he is gone after one year...

 

I get that, but SF would give more to us, if we took Longoria over Belt. (Of course, I would prefer Belt, if the return was the same.)

[mvp 78]

I get that, but SF would give more to us, if we took Longoria over Belt. (Of course, I would prefer Belt, if the return was the same.)

 

Why do you guys keep wanting Henry to write big checks to bad players?

[notin]

Why do you guys keep wanting Henry to write big checks to bad players?

 

Only if they are used to offset what it takes to bring the good players that accompany them...

[moonslav59]

Why do you guys keep wanting Henry to write big checks to bad players?

 

Why do you keep forgetting we're giving a bad contract back?

 

I don't want Longoria, or Belt, just like I didn't want Myers, last year, but hey, getting Myers would have been better than getting nothing for the $16M we paid LA in the Betts trade.

 

I don't want Henry paying Eovaldi $17M to sit on the IL half or all of 2021, either.

 

If trading Eovaldi for another bad deal actually adds lux tax space to our budget, I'm listening.

 

I'm not saying I'd do any deal like this, and a lot depends on the guy we get back with the salary dump.

 

Take the Yaz deal: we save $6M on the lux tax budget and fill our OF need with a player way better than Pillar or JBJ, who would cost us $4-9M a year depending on who you are talking to. We also get a player in Longoria who may surprise. If he doesn't it's no different than just paying money to SF like we are with the Dodgers.

 

A deal like Belt plus for Eovaldi makes more sense, but we don't get Yaz.

 

[moonslav59]

Only if they are used to offset what it takes to bring the good players that accompany them...

 

My balance sheet looks like this:

 

Minus:

1. bad contract taken

 

Plus:

1. fill a slot that is open with the added on good player in the deal

2. have a shot that the bad contract player can do better and fills a second slot we have open. (2 slots filled- one opened)

3. add luxury tax spending space to add to what we were going to spend on pitching to start with. (either get a better SP'er than we could w/o the money or sign an extra RP'er)

 

It could be 3 pluses to 1 minus. If the bad contract we get flops, it's still 2 to 1.

 

If Eovaldi stays healthy and does great, we could still break even.

[Thunder]

I don't think we should go after Yaz just because of his last name. I don't know if he's a fit for us

[notin]

I don't think we should go after Yaz just because of his last name. I don't know if he's a fit for us

 

His lineage is always worth a place on the team, IMO.

 

But Longoria? Not so much. Eva? Sure. But not Evan...

[mvp 78]

Why do you keep forgetting we're giving a bad contract back?

 

Eovaldi isn't a bad contract IMO.

[moonslav59]

His lineage is always worth a place on the team, IMO.

 

But Longoria? Not so much. Eva? Sure. But not Evan...

 

It's just adding an "N!"

 

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi isn't a bad contract IMO.

 

That explains not understanding these suggestions.

 

I don't think I'm alone in thinking Eovaldi would not get a $34M/2 offer this winter.

[mvp 78]

That explains not understanding these suggestions.

 

I don't think I'm alone in thinking Eovaldi would not get a $34M/2 offer this winter.

 

Even if his contract is too high, it's a better value to keep him on staff (where you have a HUGE need) than to dump his contract for a poor performing offensive player and some lottery tickets. You only trade Eovaldi if you don't want to contend next year.

[harmony]

Even if his contract is too high, it's a better value to keep him on staff (where you have a HUGE need) than to dump his contract for a poor performing offensive player and some lottery tickets. You only trade Eovaldi if you don't want to contend next year.

Regardless of whether the Red Sox hope to contend in 2021, the pitching-thin Sox need to keep Nathan Eovaldi instead of trading the righthander when his contract is under water.

[Bellhorn04]

Even if his contract is too high, it's a better value to keep him on staff (where you have a HUGE need) than to dump his contract for a poor performing offensive player and some lottery tickets. You only trade Eovaldi if you don't want to contend next year.

 

My man!