A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[harmony]

Geez, you should have just called me out by name in your first post, rather than saying "some Red Sox fans".

 

I'm not going to apologize or back down from being optimistic about my team. Missing the playoffs this year does not preclude making the playoffs next year. Don't rain on my parade.

I did not intend to call out the most revered poster on this forum.

 

My apologies.

 

Be well.

[moonslav59]

It's a combination of bias and optimism. We like to think we're trading the right ones and keeping the right ones.

 

I realize this is mostly about DD, of course. So far we haven't been severely burned by anyone he's traded. A few mild and moderate burns, yes.

 

The jury is still out on a few possible "burns," but yes, it looks like no trade was a clear "killer." Even if Moncada and Kopech turn out great, Sale did very well for us. (Note: I don't count the extension as part of the deal.)

 

Yes, bias and optimism play roles, but there seemed to be less optimism on the very highly ranked prospects DD traded than the lesser ranked prospects we have now, maybe even by some of those who were fine with all the trades.

 

I'm sure glad DD chose to hold onto Devers, and I felt that way from the start. Injuries to Espinoza and others have made those deal look better, and flops like Guerra have, too.

 

We certainly could not get the same sorts of returns from our current prospects as we did from the two dozen or so DD traded away, and maybe that plays into the "hold em" mentality that seems to be prevalent, these days.

 

Going by MLB Tradevalues numbers, here is how our prospects are valued:

 

#44 Downs 26.4 (15 prospects have a value 2X or more)

#52 Casas 22.2

#66 Dalbec

#106 Mata

#109 Duran

#152 Jimenez

(No more in top 200)

 

If one figure we should have 1 in the top 30, 2 in the top 60, 3 in 90 and so on, it appears like we have more than average in the top 60, 90, 120, but less than average in the top 30. (Exactly average in top 150.)

 

Maybe once the PTBNL'ers are known, and maybe guys like Potts or others get more of a chance, these numbers may improve, but when you look at some of these other team's rookies they are calling up, my jaw drops, and I can't help thinking, "Where's our can't miss guy like that?"

[moonslav59]

Oh, it's decimated. We went from a top 3 (#1 at one point) to a bottom 3 in an extremely short period of time.

 

Yes, when we said it was decimated, it was, but we have gotten a little better.

 

It wasn't easy with all the restrictions on big spending and big winning teams to add great prospects, but our farm improved a bit faster than I had expected. Losing helped some. Re-setting will help further. The Betts and summer traded helped a lot- something some of the cliff naysayers would have never expected happening when they said, "Don't worry. We'll rebuild the farm quickly."

[moonslav59]

Not all at once.

 

I hated that Cherington never traded any. Dombrowski traded them all. We need a happy medium. Trading all the prospects left the Sox with no minimum wage replacements, and that was likely a factor in not signing Betts...

 

None but Devers.

[moonslav59]

How's this for a possible winter deal?

 

Eovaldi, Vazquez, Chavis, Duran & Walden

For

Yastremski, Belt & Santana ©

 

(The trade simulator accepted it.)

[jacksonianmarch]

If you deal Vaz, you’re getting pitching. I think you could see a Vaz to the Rays for a package of pitchers including Baz and or McLanahan

[moonslav59]

If you deal Vaz, you’re getting pitching. I think you could see a Vaz to the Rays for a package of pitchers including Baz and or McLanahan

 

Vaz is no stud.

 

We dump Eovaldi's contract and can sign a SP'er.

[notin]

If you deal Vaz, you’re getting pitching. I think you could see a Vaz to the Rays for a package of pitchers including Baz and or McLanahan

 

 

The Shane’s.

 

The Sox could increase the return by taking back the contract of Kevin Kiermaier, which helps clear up the CF logjam for Tampa and clears a path for Margot or Arozarena.

 

Vazquez to Tampa for Kiermaier, McClanahan and Trevor Richards. Boom. Done...

[notin]

How's this for a possible winter deal?

 

Eovaldi, Vazquez, Chavis, Duran & Walden

For

Yastremski, Belt & Santana ©

 

(The trade simulator accepted it.)

 

No pitching?

 

The Sox did draft Brandon Belt as a pitcher a while back, but I think that ship has sailed...

[moonslav59]

No pitching?

 

The Sox did draft Brandon Belt as a pitcher a while back, but I think that ship has sailed...

 

He's only added to partially offset Eovaldi's contract.

[moonslav59]

Here's another "accepted" deal:

 

Beni & Chavis

 

For

 

Boyd

Goodrum

Meadows

[Kimmi]

I think when we have a player that is doing well at the position, others who normally fill that position become more expendable and on a shorter leash. It might come to that in a year or two with Dalbec and Casas as 1st basemen. It may come to that with 2nd base where Downs, Arroyo both could be good players but can you keep both? In the outfield we have Verdugo who has shown he is a keeper. With two positions left we have Beni, Chavis, Duran, Munoz and possibly a late Bloom adder or JBJ. One would think the leash would be shortened for guys who once given a reasonable chance, don't produce.

 

Age, contractual cost, years of control and position flexibility might also be part of the decision. Bloom is here to improve the team and the farm. To do that he has to get rid of under-performing players and replace them with better. His main challenge will be the large number of pitching assets to sort through.

 

I don't really disagree with any of this. I am pulling for Beni and JD to rebound, though I am aware that it might not happen. I'm just saying it's a tough decision on when to let someone go. I'm glad I'm not the one who has to make the call.

[Kimmi]

Not all at once.

 

I hated that Cherington never traded any. Dombrowski traded them all. We need a happy medium. Trading all the prospects left the Sox with no minimum wage replacements, and that was likely a factor in not signing Betts...

 

Both Theo and Ben were tight with their prospects. I do think that Ben would have made some trades in 2016 if he had stayed on. The team was at that point. He certainly wouldn't have traded to the extent that Dombrowski did. As you said, happy medium.

[Kimmi]

I did not intend to call out the most revered poster on this forum.

 

My apologies.

 

Be well.

 

No apologies needed Harmony, but thank you. It's all good. I really don't mind being called out, as much as my previous post might suggest otherwise. I'm just defending my team.

[Kimmi]

Yes, when we said it was decimated, it was, but we have gotten a little better.

 

It wasn't easy with all the restrictions on big spending and big winning teams to add great prospects, but our farm improved a bit faster than I had expected. Losing helped some. Re-setting will help further. The Betts and summer traded helped a lot- something some of the cliff naysayers would have never expected happening when they said, "Don't worry. We'll rebuild the farm quickly."

 

Yes, the farm is in better shape than it was, and it got to this point relatively quickly. At the same time, the Sox sacrificed in order to get it there, some sacrifices were intentional, others were not.

[oldtimer]

If we lose Beni and Chavis in trades and JBJ goes, we still can use Verdugo in center, Munoz in left and Duran in right. That is without a trade return. I still would be looking for pitching returns first.

[Kimmi]

Vaz is no stud.

 

We dump Eovaldi's contract and can sign a SP'er.

 

Vaz is no stud, but he's a pretty good catcher on a reasonable contract. I understand trading him for pitching, but I also think we would either be downgraded at the catching position, or it's going to cost us more.

[Bellhorn04]

Not all at once.

 

I hated that Cherington never traded any. Dombrowski traded them all. We need a happy medium. Trading all the prospects left the Sox with no minimum wage replacements, and that was likely a factor in not signing Betts...

 

Not much of one. I can see you and I will be going back and forth on this one a while.

[notin]

Both Theo and Ben were tight with their prospects. I do think that Ben would have made some trades in 2016 if he had stayed on. The team was at that point. He certainly wouldn't have traded to the extent that Dombrowski did. As you said, happy medium.

 

Maybe, but Ben had to get the team out of “sell mode” before I can accept that...

[Bellhorn04]

Vaz is no stud.

 

We dump Eovaldi's contract and can sign a SP'er.

 

But there's no guarantee we'll sign one who does better than Eovaldi the next two years.

[notin]

Not much of one. I can see you and I will be going back and forth on this one a while.

 

If you like, I can play it forward a bit, to when we trade Devers so we can hold onto so mid-30’s overpaid hype like Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman.

 

But you’re going to have to accept that the “we didn’t give away any exceptional players” crap is actually not the point...

[Bellhorn04]

If you like, I can play it forward a bit, to when we trade Devers so we can hold onto so mid-30’s overpaid hype like Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman.

 

But you’re going to have to accept that the “we didn’t give away any exceptional players” crap is actually not the point...

 

I think I know what your point is, I just don't think it's nearly as big as you're making it out to be.

[notin]

But there's no guarantee we'll sign one who does better than Eovaldi the next two years.

 

If he throws 180 innings, he’s better...

[Bellhorn04]

If he throws 180 innings, he’s better...

 

Now name one who's guaranteed to do so.

[jacksonianmarch]

I would not be surprised if Bloom really bucked a trend here and dealt Verdugo for pitching. Hear me out. The rumors last year were that Beni was heading to Cleveland, but his horror show of a season has wrecked that idea. So now you have Verdugo, the unquestioned long term offensive piece that Bloom will want to hold on tightly to. But, the sox have zero pitching. Sale will return at some point in the first half, but nobody knows who he will be going forward since his shoulder was an issue before the elbow was. Nobody has any clue if or when ERod would come back. The rest of the rotation is a bucket of gasoline. It would behoove Bloom (and be pretty typical) to prioritize pitching over offense. I do wonder if the sox do a 1 for 1 with Verdugo and Plesac. Last year, the kid was really good as a 24 yr old rookie. This year, albeit in 6 starts, he has been lights out. His indiscretion aside, he is trending upwards, especially with his K rate rising. He also has 5 years of control left.

[Nick]

I would not be surprised if Bloom really bucked a trend here and dealt Verdugo for pitching. Hear me out. The rumors last year were that Beni was heading to Cleveland, but his horror show of a season has wrecked that idea. So now you have Verdugo, the unquestioned long term offensive piece that Bloom will want to hold on tightly to. But, the sox have zero pitching. Sale will return at some point in the first half, but nobody knows who he will be going forward since his shoulder was an issue before the elbow was. Nobody has any clue if or when ERod would come back. The rest of the rotation is a bucket of gasoline. It would behoove Bloom (and be pretty typical) to prioritize pitching over offense. I do wonder if the sox do a 1 for 1 with Verdugo and Plesac. Last year, the kid was really good as a 24 yr old rookie. This year, albeit in 6 starts, he has been lights out. His indiscretion aside, he is trending upwards, especially with his K rate rising. He also has 5 years of control left.

 

You trade a player when his value can't get much higher, that's Verdugo and Devers. If you can get two ace potential pitchers with team control, then you have to consider it.

 

Fastest way to rebuild is through pitching. Just don't sign some 33 year has been to a 7 year deal. That will kill this team again. Learn from mistakes. Pay little more if you have to but limit the length of contracts. You can and should walk away from any deal you're uncomfortable with. Best deal sometime is the one you don't make.

 

But right now, we need more major league talent than anything else. Not sure getting an ace for next year at a significant loss at another position is a good thing at this point. We need to solidify the 40 man roster through small deals and small free agent signings.

 

We're nowhere close to being a playoff contender.

 

I don't expect Chris Sale to return to100% health until 2022.

Edited September 17, 2020 by Nick

[Nick]

Any thoughts on where the CBA Agreement will land after the 2021 season? Both sides claiming COVID of 2020 has put their side on lower financial spectrum.

 

Who'll have better arguement?

[Nick]

To base next year's draft order on two year average makes absolute no sense. Teams with bad record from 2019 ALREADY benefited from having a bad record. Why would you reward them second season in a row by combining team's ineptitude from 2019?

MassLive

 

The Boston Red Sox dropped to 18-32 (.360 winning percentage) with an 8-4 loss to the Marlins on Wednesday. Only 10 games remain in this shortened 60-game season. The Sox are on pace to finish with 21.6 wins, which would put them near the bottom of the MLB standings.

 

 

The Pittsburgh Pirates at 14-34 (.292 winning percentage) are the frontrunners to finish with MLB’s worst record.

 

Boston has played better baseball recently. It is 6-5 in its past 11 games, and 12-14 in its past 26 games.

 

But the Red Sox still have the second worst winning percentage in the majors, which is a positive looking ahead to the 2021 MLB Draft.

 

Two potential frontline starters sit at the top of the draft board. Vanderbilt righty Kumar Rocker is projected to go No. 1 overall. Jack Leiter, another righty from Vanderbilt and the son of former major league pitcher Al Leiter, is projected to go No. 2 overall.

 

The order of the MLB Draft in a normal year is determined by reverse standings. The team with the worst record the previous season receives the No. 1 pick. The team with the second worst record receives the No. 2 pick. But commissioner Rob Manfred has the ability to modify the 2021 MLB Draft order because the 2020 season is fewer than 81 games.

 

As readers have pointed out to me on Twitter recently, if a 60-game season is enough to crown a World Series champion, then it should be enough to determine draft order. That’s a good point.

 

Best-case scenario for the Red Sox is to lose as many of their final 10 games as possible, finish with a bottom two record and hope Manfred decides to use the 2020 reverse standings to determine draft order.

 

 

Baseball America reported Aug. 31, “Sources believe nothing will change in terms of how the draft order is determined."

 

But MLB Pipeline’s Jonathan Mayo wrote Wednesday, “We don’t really know what the 2021 Draft order is going to look like, but we expect it to be some kind of combination/hybrid of the 2019 and 2020 season records.”

 

Mayo speculated MLB either combining each team’s record from 2019-20 or giving “equal weight to both seasons in a 50-50 split.” Mayo further explained, “Teams who have surprisingly done well or poorly this year move down or up more in the 50-50 system, pushing a team like the Padres down seven spots or a team like the Red Sox up five.”

 

The Red Sox were in position as of Wednesday to draft 14th by combining the 2019-20 records or ninth in a 50-50 system, Mayo pointed out.

 

Worst winning percentages in MLB this season:

 

Pirates: 14-34 (.292 winning percentage)

 

Red Sox 18-32 (.360 winning percentage)

 

Rangers 18-31 (.367 winning percentage)

 

Diamondbacks 19-31 (.380 winning percentage)

 

Nationals 18-29 (.383 winning percentage)

 

Angels 20-30 (.400 winning percentage)

 

Royals 21-29 (.420 winning percentage)

[notin]

I think I know what your point is, I just don't think it's nearly as big as you're making it out to be.

 

I think it is bigger than you think.

 

Really, star or not, if you get the minimum wage starter, then it becomes easier to retain your stars. Fr example, if the Sox still had Margot and Allen, sure neither are stars, but also maybe they do not extend Eovaldi and repeated extend Bradley. Now while Allen is hardly stellar, we would say the same thing about any prospect who gave us what we have gotten from Eovaldi, who has given us 105 IP of 5.57 ERA (86 ERA+) since signing that deal after 2018.

 

That representant close to $85mill i right there. Certainly not enough to retain Betts on it's own, but a big chunk of it.

 

And the decisions can be piled on to it. Was the Sale extension done (which it clearly appears to have been) because he was injured and unable to pitch? Should that have been done? That's another $145 mill and we still have to replace him anyway. And how many of those 5 years will he be effective?

Edited September 17, 2020 by notin

[mvp 78]

To base next year's draft order on two year average makes absolute no sense. Teams with bad record from 2019 ALREADY benefited from having a bad record. Why would you reward them second season in a row by combining team's ineptitude from 2019?

 

Manfred originally said this in case the season was cancelled at some point or as a punishment if some teams were intentionally tanking. If he decides to just go forward with it anyway, it'd be pretty s*****.