A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

If we lose Beni and Chavis in trades and JBJ goes, we still can use Verdugo in center, Munoz in left and Duran in right. That is without a trade return. I still would be looking for pitching returns first.

 

That's potentially a very weak pair of corner outfielders.

 

Not to mention, why the weird alignment of Verdugo in CF and Duran in RF. Both are clearly better suited to be switched back.

 

I like Munoz as a 2B/utility INF candidate, along with Arroyo, assuming the former doesn't have a fit and storm out of camp again. But neither is a guaranteed solution even at 2B as it is. I don't think Munoz' bat will play in LF any better than Benintendi. At this point, you taking a guy who has "disappointed" with a .751 OPS since 2018 and replacing him with a guy whose career OPS is .736 in limited play. You're just replacing a disappointment with a surprise and not taking into account that there, at best, the same hitter, and you're re-arranging the defense to accommodate him.

 

 

If the Sox can trade Benintendi for a pitcher, that's not necessarily the worst idea. I've thrown out Benintendi for Matt Boyd or Benintendi for Reynaldo Lopez as trades that seem fair. Don't expect much more. But if the Sox do that, they have no good internal candidates to play LF. There OF prospect depth begins and ends with Duran, who would be wasted there. And Munoz is only 16 months younger, so there is no argument that he is more likely to get better than Benintendi over time...

[moonslav59]

Yes, the farm is in better shape than it was, and it got to this point relatively quickly. At the same time, the Sox sacrificed in order to get it there, some sacrifices were intentional, others were not.

 

Yes, trading away Betts and others were "sacrifices."

 

Losing to get higher draft picks may not have been intentional, but it was predictable (except for maybe 2019).

[moonslav59]

Vaz is no stud, but he's a pretty good catcher on a reasonable contract. I understand trading him for pitching, but I also think we would either be downgraded at the catching position, or it's going to cost us more.

 

I'm fine with trading Vaz for pitching, but it should not be a demand.

[moonslav59]

But there's no guarantee we'll sign one who does better than Eovaldi the next two years.

 

Just as trading Vaz for a pitcher may produce a dud.

[Bellhorn04]

I think it is bigger than you think.

 

Really, star or not, if you get the minimum wage starter, then it becomes easier to retain your stars. Fr example, if the Sox still had Margot and Allen, sure neither are stars, but also maybe they do not extend Eovaldi and repeated extend Bradley. Now while Allen is hardly stellar, we would say the same thing about any prospect who gave us what we have gotten from Eovaldi, who has given us 105 IP of 5.57 ERA (86 ERA+) since signing that deal after 2018.

 

That representant close to $85mill i right there. Certainly not enough to retain Betts on it's own, but a big chunk of it.

 

And the decisions can be piled on to it. Was the Sale extension done (which it clearly appears to have been) because he was injured and unable to pitch? Should that have been done? That's another $145 mill and we still have to replace him anyway. And how many of those 5 years will he be effective?

 

IMO we should have this discussion on the Mookie thread.

[notin]

IMO we should have this discussion on the Mookie thread.

 

It has impact on 2021, so I don't see it';s inclusion here as wildly inappropriate. Especially if the Sox learned nothing from the history here...

[Bellhorn04]

It has impact on 2021, so I don't see it';s inclusion here as wildly inappropriate. Especially if the Sox learned nothing from the history here...

 

I'm not saying it's inappropriate. But it has a lot to do with the specific matter of losing Mookie, and it could be a long discussion.

[notin]

I'm not saying it's inappropriate. But it has a lot to do with the specific matter of losing Mookie, and it could be a long discussion.

 

We could also move it to the 2020 thread. There isn't much else worth talking about on this team...

[Bellhorn04]

We could also move it to the 2020 thread. There isn't much else worth talking about on this team...

 

Sure, the 2020 thread would be fine.

[notin]

Now name one who's guaranteed to do so.

 

While I cannot guarantee anyone, I can name 30 or 40 more likely to do so.

 

The last time Eovaldi threw that many innings was 2014. Even IL mainstays Alex Wood and Garrett Richards have topped that total more recently...

[Bellhorn04]

While I cannot guarantee anyone, I can name 30 or 40 more likely to do so.

 

The last time Eovaldi threw that many innings was 2014. Even IL mainstays Alex Wood and Garrett Richards have topped that total more recently...

 

30 or 40 good, affordable pitchers who are available this offseason?

[notin]

30 or 40 good, affordable pitchers who are available this offseason?

 

Sure.

 

There are 40 starting pitchers listed as available free agents on MLBTR.

 

Now, some of them, notably Brett Anderson, Drew Smyly, Merrill Kelly, Jimmy Nelson, Corey Kluber, Tyson Ross, Rich Hill, and Michael Wacha I will say are less likely to throw 180 IP than Eovaldi. Others (Alex Wood, Garrett Richards, Mike Minor) are close. So that's 29 right there. (28 if you do not want to include Martin Perez, whose already here and likely to be back.) A few others have team options, but none of them look likely to be picked up.

 

But then we could also see a wave of pitchers non-tendered. And another set of pitchers readily available in trade. The number could easily reach 40.

 

As for "good", my premise is based on IP solely. Anything beyond that is debatable, but Eovaldi and his 86 ERA+ since 2018 does lower any bar you want to set...

[mvp 78]

Red Sox manager Ron Roenicke said Thursday that the team is hoping Eduardo Rodriguez (heart) will be cleared for a "normal-ish offseason strength program."

Rodriguez has been out all year after he developed a heart condition called myocarditis following a battle with COVID-19, but he is back in Boston now and undergoing tests to determine the next step in the rehab process. This situation will obviously be slow-played, and there might not be a clear picture about the 27-year-old left-hander's availability for 2021 until we get closer to next spring. Workload could be an issue even if he is determined to be fully healthy, as E-Rod threw zero innings in 2020 after logging 203 1/3 innings in 2019.

 

You and me both, Ronald.

[Bellhorn04]

As for "good", my premise is based on IP solely. Anything beyond that is debatable, but Eovaldi and his 86 ERA+ since 2018 does lower any bar you want to set...

 

Your campaign against Nathan is diabolical.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

To base next year's draft order on two year average makes absolute no sense. Teams with bad record from 2019 ALREADY benefited from having a bad record. Why would you reward them second season in a row by combining team's ineptitude from 2019?

MassLive

 

So Manfred better also make sure that when the Rays win the 2020 World Series, that they split their winners' shares of cake with the 2019 Nationals...

 

Right?

[notin]

Your campaign against Nathan is diabolical.

 

And has been since the end of the 2018 season.

 

Eovaldi should have been treated like a rebound girlfriend...

[oldtimer]

That's potentially a very weak pair of corner outfielders.

 

Not to mention, why the weird alignment of Verdugo in CF and Duran in RF. Both are clearly better suited to be switched back.

 

I like Munoz as a 2B/utility INF candidate, along with Arroyo, assuming the former doesn't have a fit and storm out of camp again. But neither is a guaranteed solution even at 2B as it is. I don't think Munoz' bat will play in LF any better than Benintendi. At this point, you taking a guy who has "disappointed" with a .751 OPS since 2018 and replacing him with a guy whose career OPS is .736 in limited play. You're just replacing a disappointment with a surprise and not taking into account that there, at best, the same hitter, and you're re-arranging the defense to accommodate him.

 

 

If the Sox can trade Benintendi for a pitcher, that's not necessarily the worst idea. I've thrown out Benintendi for Matt Boyd or Benintendi for Reynaldo Lopez as trades that seem fair. Don't expect much more. But if the Sox do that, they have no good internal candidates to play LF. There OF prospect depth begins and ends with Duran, who would be wasted there. And Munoz is only 16 months younger, so there is no argument that he is more likely to get better than Benintendi over time...

 

My response was to a poster who wanted to trade Beni and Chavis and I pointed out we will likely lose JBJ to the FA market. Since i believe our trades should focus on obtaining pitching, either starting or BP help, I identified the most likely outfield help on our roster and in the prospect list. Verdugo has played CF before coming to the Sox and is decent from what I hear. Roenicke put him there last night. Munoz is our best option and is most likely the left field candidate with Beni traded. Duran has been learning CF and was not brought up to date since they said he needed to work on going back on the ball. He does have great speed so right field at Fenway is large and would seem to me under the circumstances to be a fit.

 

If the Sox look for a replacement outfielder instead of pitching I will be surprised, however they could try to do both since Arroyo seems to fit at second and Munoz as you say could be seen as a utility player. Dalbec is by no means a lock at 1st. I hope the kid makes it as we could use his power. Oppsing pitchers will look for weaknesses and lets hope he can make the adjustments on the fly.

 

[notin]

My response was to a poster who wanted to trade Beni and Chavis and I pointed out we will likely lose JBJ to the FA market. Since i believe our trades should focus on obtaining pitching, either starting or BP help, I identified the most likely outfield help on our roster and in the prospect list. Verdugo has played CF before coming to the Sox and is decent from what I hear. Roenicke put him there last night. Munoz is our best option and is most likely the left field candidate with Beni traded. Duran has been learning CF and was not brought up to date since they said he needed to work on going back on the ball. He does have great speed so right field at Fenway is large and would seem to me under the circumstances to be a fit.

 

If the Sox look for a replacement outfielder instead of pitching I will be surprised, however they could try to do both since Arroyo seems to fit at second and Munoz as you say could be seen as a utility player. Dalbec is by no means a lock at 1st. I hope the kid makes it as we could use his power. Oppsing pitchers will look for weaknesses and lets hope he can make the adjustments on the fly.

 

 

I think if the Sox trade Benintendi or Vazquez (or both) to get pitching, they will still acquire other players from outside the organization to fill both/either role(s). Chavis is really a bench player anyway, and is best used in the roles he excels at (such s hitting LHP). He's the new Steve Pearce, and if his career plays out like Pearce's, he'll be fine.

 

Now, will the Sox fill C and/or LF wth expensive players? Like Realmuto or Ozuna? Probably not. But just because pitching is the primary need does not make it the only need, and if the Sox deal one or both players for pitching, they very likely lessen the need to spend as much money on arms. As it stands now, they might only acquire one MLB starting pitcher, since they should have 4 returning if you count Pivetta (which we probably should, since Bloom clearly wanted him).

 

As for contributions from below, Dalbec is clearly in play and Duran might be. Beyond maybe a bullpen arm or two, I don't think the farm can supply enough players to turn this into a competitive team. As it stands, even relying on both Dalbec and Duran might be too much already.

 

But if the idea is to bulk up the pitching and depend on getting 600 PA's each from Dalbec, Munoz, Arroyo and Duran, there is no real point in improving all the pitching...

[moonslav59]

I think if the Sox trade Benintendi or Vazquez (or both) to get pitching, they will still acquire other players from outside the organization to fill both/either role(s). Chavis is really a bench player anyway, and is best used in the roles he excels at (such s hitting LHP). He's the new Steve Pearce, and if his career plays out like Pearce's, he'll be fine.

 

Now, will the Sox fill C and/or LF wth expensive players? Like Realmuto or Ozuna? Probably not. But just because pitching is the primary need does not make it the only need, and if the Sox deal one or both players for pitching, they very likely lessen the need to spend as much money on arms. As it stands now, they might only acquire one MLB starting pitcher, since they should have 4 returning if you count Pivetta (which we probably should, since Bloom clearly wanted him).

 

As for contributions from below, Dalbec is clearly in play and Duran might be. Beyond maybe a bullpen arm or two, I don't think the farm can supply enough players to turn this into a competitive team. As it stands, even relying on both Dalbec and Duran might be too much already.

 

But if the idea is to bulk up the pitching and depend on getting 600 PA's each from Dalbec, Munoz, Arroyo and Duran, there is no real point in improving all the pitching...

 

We could begin rebuilding the staff, but more for beyond 2021, but also to make us more respectable for 2021 as we work towards filling other holes and determining which of our up and coming farm hands look to be worth giving a shot.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We could begin rebuilding the staff, but more for beyond 2021, but also to make us more respectable for 2021 as we work towards filling other holes and determining which of our up and coming farm hands look to be worth giving a shot.

 

We're golden -- 18 year-old Nick Yorke has already been promoted to Pawtucket today.

[notin]

We could begin rebuilding the staff, but more for beyond 2021, but also to make us more respectable for 2021 as we work towards filling other holes and determining which of our up and coming farm hands look to be worth giving a shot.

 

I think an attempt will be made to be competitive in 2021. It's not unheard of. The Sox have finished in last place 3 times in the last 8 years, and then finished in first place the next year after two of them, with one World Series title in one of those season to boot...

[Bellhorn04]

And has been since the end of the 2018 season.

 

Eovaldi should have been treated like a rebound girlfriend...

 

@TomCaron

Eovaldi put men on the corners with no outs in the fifth but escapes with a pair of K's and a ground out. Scoreless in the 6th. Eovaldi has been outstanding, with 7 K's and no walks. He's averaged 97.6 mph w/ his fastball, touching a max of 100 mph. #RedSox

[notin]

@TomCaron

Eovaldi put men on the corners with no outs in the fifth but escapes with a pair of K's and a ground out. Scoreless in the 6th. Eovaldi has been outstanding, with 7 K's and no walks. He's averaged 97.6 mph w/ his fastball, touching a max of 100 mph. #RedSox

 

It’s nice that you found a great inning out of the 105 he has pitched since 2018. But it doesn’t change that he’s only pitched 105 innings...

[oldtimer]

I think if the Sox trade Benintendi or Vazquez (or both) to get pitching, they will still acquire other players from outside the organization to fill both/either role(s). Chavis is really a bench player anyway, and is best used in the roles he excels at (such s hitting LHP). He's the new Steve Pearce, and if his career plays out like Pearce's, he'll be fine.

 

Now, will the Sox fill C and/or LF wth expensive players? Like Realmuto or Ozuna? Probably not. But just because pitching is the primary need does not make it the only need, and if the Sox deal one or both players for pitching, they very likely lessen the need to spend as much money on arms. As it stands now, they might only acquire one MLB starting pitcher, since they should have 4 returning if you count Pivetta (which we probably should, since Bloom clearly wanted him).

 

As for contributions from below, Dalbec is clearly in play and Duran might be. Beyond maybe a bullpen arm or two, I don't think the farm can supply enough players to turn this into a competitive team. As it stands, even relying on both Dalbec and Duran might be too much already.

 

But if the idea is to bulk up the pitching and depend on getting 600 PA's each from Dalbec, Munoz, Arroyo and Duran, there is no real point in improving all the pitching...

 

Neither Dalbec or Duran are sure MLs at this point. I would like to think we will work with Dalbec because his power would be an important asset. Today, he struck out 4 times swinging and I don't remember him making contact, so he has a long ways to go. Casas is probably a year away so maybe we can get Dalbec to make adjustments and become an asset in 2021. All I have heard about Duran has been positive but we have to wait and see. His exceptional speed is also an asset so he is worth a look. I see Munoz as a place holder and not a great asset for the team. If the Sox can get someone like Springer for a reasonable contract, that would be a great improvement. I really don't expect that to happen but a third outfielder would have to come after filling pitching needs. I trust that Bloom has the right ideas for the club ad that he will look to secure deals that move us forward.

[Bellhorn04]

It’s nice that you found a great inning out of the 105 he has pitched since 2018. But it doesn’t change that he’s only pitched 105 innings...

 

It was 5 dominant shutout innings today, actually.

[Kimmi]

Maybe, but Ben had to get the team out of “sell mode” before I can accept that...

 

???

[moonslav59]

I think an attempt will be made to be competitive in 2021. It's not unheard of. The Sox have finished in last place 3 times in the last 8 years, and then finished in first place the next year after two of them, with one World Series title in one of those season to boot...

 

I agree.

 

I think we'll look to sign 2-3 players for 2 or more years- maybe 1 or 2 of them being 4+ years.

 

The rest may be 1 year "bridge" signings that will allow us time to better evaluate how our farm hands might position themselves for meaningful roles for 2022 and beyond.

 

Push to compete for the playoffs in 2021 and more for 2022.

 

It won't be easy, but we should get some in-system help by 2022, and hopefully spending will not be an issue for a while.

[notin]

It was 5 dominant shutout innings today, actually.

 

Again, not the biggest sample size.

 

With the benefit of hindsight, has signing Eovaldi been a good move or a bad one?

 

Now, granted, he does have 2 years left to go all Lackey on us and make it look like a good deal...

[harmony]

Again, not the biggest sample size.

 

With the benefit of hindsight, has signing Eovaldi been a good move or a bad one?

Now, granted, he does have 2 years left to go all Lackey on us and make it look like a good deal...

One Nathan Eovaldi comp might be Seattle lefthander Yusei Kikuchi.

 

Or not.

 

Kikuchi signed a multiyear free agent contract less than one month after Eovaldi signed his multiyear free agent contract in the 2018-19 offseason. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, Kikuchi signed for four years and $56 million with complicated options through 2025. Eovaldi's contract is for four years and $68 million.

 

Kikuchi, who is 16 months younger than Eovaldi, has posted 1.4 fWAR in 39 starts and 198.2 innings since joining the Mariners. Entering Thursday's solid start, Eovaldi had posted 0.1 fWAR in 30 appearances, including 19 starts, in 105 innings.

 

This season Kikuchi has posted 1.1 fWAR over 37 innings in seven starts while, entering Thursday's game, Eovaldi had posted 0.3 fWAR over 37.1 innings in seven starts.

 

Each pitcher has generally disappointed since signing a free agent contract.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yusei-kikuchi/20633/stats?position=P

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nathan-eovaldi/9132/stats?position=P

[moonslav59]

Again, not the biggest sample size.

 

With the benefit of hindsight, has signing Eovaldi been a good move or a bad one?

 

Now, granted, he does have 2 years left to go all Lackey on us and make it look like a good deal...

 

I'd say bad, so far, despite the playoff heroics.

 

There's time to turn it around, and I'll always be grateful for his inspiration and performance in 2018.