A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[dgalehouse]

Mookie is on a different level than the good to very good players . Devers included.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Mookie is on a different level than the good to very good players . Devers included.

 

Let's just hope Devers is pretty good but not too great, or we might not be able to sign him.

[moonslav59]

From what I can see -- and remember seeing -- there are huge differences between Betts and Devers that go beyond Mookie's superior stats, elite defense and baserunning. Both have great hand-eye skills but Betts -- who has already starred in over twice as many games -- has always had a better approach to hitting, with a more contained line drive swing. Devers can be a borderline hack, trying to kill way too many pitches above and below the strike zone.

 

Maybe Rafie matures into a lefthanded Miggie Cabrera, but right now there is already some skepticism about inconsistent focus and conditioning. For those who think Devers may turn out to be a better longterm investment, it's worth noting that Mookie Betts has never given anyone in baseball one single pause that he won't sustain his Hall of Fame career for the next decade.

 

I don't disagree, but for a "hack," a .282 BA and .335 OBP is pretty damn decent.

 

Here's a narrower look: ages 22-23 only:

 

Betts: .306/.353/.508/.861

Devers: .304/.355/.550/.905

 

The BA and OBP are nearly equal!

[moonslav59]

Let's just hope Devers is pretty good but not too great, or we might not be able to sign him.

 

Then, right after we sign him, he becomes the best ever!

[Kimmi]

B-R is better for a lot of things, but when it comes to comparing advanced stats, it fails in comparison to Fangraphs. Badly...

 

Yes, B-R has some good features.

[Kimmi]

Since the hope is that Downs will fill the 2nd base position in the not to distant future, ala July of 2021, why not fill with Chavis, Chatham or Lin? I have yet to see any other, including Munoz as better option.

 

As far as outfield, it would be a reasonable approach to sign JBJ on a team friendly contract, but that is a iffy proposition. I by no means am convinced that Beni is our outfielder of the future so I would look to fill at least one outfield slot. If Jarren is ready then he would be a good fit. Either use him or lose him. I think the Sox have seen enough to do the former and in 2021.

 

My approach would preserve the majority of money for Pitching. At least one quality starter, a closer and several relievers.[/size][/b]

 

If Chavis, Chatham, or Lin can provide more production, than I'm all for it. Munoz would work very well in a utility role if that's the case.

 

Christian Arroyo has now worked his name into the mix for 2B. Apparently, his is "Bloom guy".

 

I have no idea what the offseason plans are for the Beni and JBJ. As I said, I'd like to see them both return in their starting roles.

[Kimmi]

Maybe we give .Devers an extension now, if he will accept it, and not let FA creep up on us

 

That would be my approach. Devers has to be open to the idea as well.

[oldtimer]

If Chavis, Chatham, or Lin can provide more production, than I'm all for it. Munoz would work very well in a utility role if that's the case.

 

Christian Arroyo has now worked his name into the mix for 2B. Apparently, his is "Bloom guy".

 

I have no idea what the offseason plans are for the Beni and JBJ. As I said, I'd like to see them both return in their starting roles.

 

I just read that about Arroyo. If he gets enough AB's to form an impression by the end of the season then we may be happily surprised. He has been injured during the last 2 years and is now healthy. I would imagine it will take time for him to get back. He was a high draft choice so there was some talent there.

 

I would like JBJ back for a club favorable contract of 2 years. It may not work out but it should be attempted. I would give Beni a chance to prove that he can be a meaningful player but his trend line is down and Duran is knocking on the door.

[Kimmi]

Our pen is pretty close to needing a total re-haul. It looks like only D Hern, Barnes and Valdez have much hope.

 

Our rotation hope lies mainly on health. If Sale, ERod and Eovaldi don't gives us much, next year, all we have is Perez, who may have just seen a somewhat outlier half season.

 

In reality, to be a very competitive team, we might get by with just 2 meaningful SP'er additions, but we likely will need 3-4 new and good pen arms to make a difference.

 

6 pitchers out of 13 is not "from scratch," but it's a major overhaul.

 

Absolutely, the health of our top 3 starters is the key.

 

In the pen, Weber and Brewer should definitely be in the mix. Some of those other guys will be too. There's just too small a sample on them this season to make that judgment. Josh Taylor comes to mind.

 

I completely agree that we need pitching help. If our current pitchers return healthy, then I don't think things are as bad as they currently look.

[Kimmi]

His defense and base-running will never match Mookie, but the bat could.

 

Here's a simplified look at the two at certain ages:

 

OPS/Level

Age Devers

20-21 1.006 AAA/.944 AA

20 .819 MLB (started MLB a year earlier than Betts)

21 .731 MLB

22 .916 MLB

23 .864 MLB

 

Age Betts

20 .923 A and A+ (lower level than Devers at age 20)

21 .920 AAA/.994 AA

21 .812 MLB

22 .820 MLB

23 .897 MLB

24 .803 MLB

 

Total Ages 20-23 (Mookie 21-23)

 

Devers: (1616 PAs) .282/.335/.505/.840

Betts: (1597 PAs) .304/.355/.500/.855

 

(Betts had an .803 season at age 24, so Devers could easily pass him, next year by putting up a .880+ season.)

 

Let's see if Devers explodes on offense as he enters prime.

 

His defense has shown signs of becoming plus, but he's has seen too many backslides, mostly with throwing, to show GG hopes. His base running instincts do not look promising.

 

It's hard to compare the two, and one could argue they shouldn't be compared, but Devers may end up the better hitter of the two, when all is said and done.

 

 

I don't disagree with what you're saying. Devers could very well end up being a better hitter, possibly even a better player overall, than Mookie. He's still very young.

 

He seems to me to be the type of player that responds very well to a close mentor/friend. Hopefully he will have that leadership and guidance going forward to continue pushing him to become better and better.

[Kimmi]

Let's just hope Devers is pretty good but not too great, or we might not be able to sign him.

 

Stop.

[Kimmi]

I just read that about Arroyo. If he gets enough AB's to form an impression by the end of the season then we may be happily surprised. He has been injured during the last 2 years and is now healthy. I would imagine it will take time for him to get back. He was a high draft choice so there was some talent there.

 

I would like JBJ back for a club favorable contract of 2 years. It may not work out but it should be attempted. I would give Beni a chance to prove that he can be a meaningful player but his trend line is down and Duran is knocking on the door.

 

We need depth. As long as we have solid depth players who are ready to step in should one of the starters not work out, then we will be fine. Getting to the playoffs is often not about who your starters are, but who can fill in for the starters in case of injury or underperformance. Easier said than done.

[a700hitter]

We need depth. As long as we have solid depth players who are ready to step in should one of the starters not work out, then we will be fine. Getting to the playoffs is often not about who your starters are, but who can fill in for the starters in case of injury or underperformance. Easier said than done.

A pile of s*** is still a pile of s***, no matter how high you pile it.

[moonslav59]

Absolutely, the health of our top 3 starters is the key.

 

In the pen, Weber and Brewer should definitely be in the mix. Some of those other guys will be too. There's just too small a sample on them this season to make that judgment. Josh Taylor comes to mind.

 

I completely agree that we need pitching help. If our current pitchers return healthy, then I don't think things are as bad as they currently look.

 

It's not unreasonable to think we need to add 6-7 pitchers to our top 13-14 staff. While it might be hyperbole to call that a complete overhaul, it is, in fact, a major overhaul that is needed.

 

Sure, guys like Weber, Brewer, Mazza, Taylor and others can be counted "in the mix," but those are the kinds of pitchers you want slotted 15-20 not 11-14.

 

I'm not saying we will add 6-7 pitchers expected to be on the opening day roster, but IMO, that's what we need to be competitive in 2021. Yes, if everyone is healthy, maybe we could get by with 4-6 additions, but we know better, and we know Sale won't be ready opening day.

[moonslav59]

I don't disagree with what you're saying. Devers could very well end up being a better hitter, possibly even a better player overall, than Mookie. He's still very young.

 

He seems to me to be the type of player that responds very well to a close mentor/friend. Hopefully he will have that leadership and guidance going forward to continue pushing him to become better and better.

 

Well said. I will add that it seems like nothing adversely affects Devers' mental state.

 

He reminds me a little of Manny- not the clownishness, but the calmness, determination and ability to blur out distractions and not let a few failures affect your next AB.

[moonslav59]

A pile of s*** is still a pile of s***, no matter how high you pile it.

 

I agree.

 

Our pitching staff is a huge "pile,"especially down roster.

 

The few young, bright hopes we have in the system are farther away than 2021. DHern is about the only real hope for anything great from our youth in 2021.

 

Assuming we get anything approaching solid seasons from Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Perez and Barnes is a stretch, for sure, but even that is only 5 guys. Add DHern & Valdez, certainly both not being sure bets and we might, if super lucky have a staff foundation of 6-7 pitchers for 2021. That leaves 6-7 gaping holes with this "pile" as the only current in-system hopes and prayers:

 

Pivetta

Taylor

Brewer

Weber

Seabold

Brasier

Walden

Mazza

Brice

Covey

Hall

Kickham

Stock

Springs

Triggs

McGrath

Poyner

Shawaryn

 

Youthful prayers:

Houck

Mata

Ward

Feltman

 

Sure, one or two may earn a slot in the top 14-15, but realistically, none should be counted on to be anything but AAA depth.

 

 

[oldtimer]

I agree.

 

Our pitching staff is a huge "pile,"especially down roster.

 

The few young, bright hopes we have in the system are farther away than 2021. DHern is about the only real hope for anything great from our youth in 2021.

 

Assuming we get anything approaching solid seasons from Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Perez and Barnes is a stretch, for sure, but even that is only 5 guys. Add DHern & Valdez, certainly both not being sure bets and we might, if super lucky have a staff foundation of 6-7 pitchers for 2021. That leaves 6-7 gaping holes with this "pile" as the only current in-system hopes and prayers:

 

Pivetta

Taylor

Brewer

Weber

Seabold

Brasier

Walden

Mazza

Brice

Covey

Hall

Kickham

Stock

Springs

Triggs

McGrath

Poyner

Shawaryn

 

Youthful prayers:

Houck

Mata

Ward

Feltman

 

Sure, one or two may earn a slot in the top 14-15, but realistically, none should be counted on to be anything but AAA depth.

 

 

 

Just highlighting in red a few that may be in the 2021, But I do thing we go after at least one quality stater, convert Eovaldi to a closer and a couple of relievers and pickem from the highlighted list.

 

With position players like Dalbec, Duran, Downs, Arroyo and Chatham possible additions to the roster in 2021 we can be a competitive team. We do need to get JDM and Beni going. A repeat of this years performance would really damage the teams chances.

 

[moonslav59]

Just highlighting in red a few that may be in the 2021, But I do thing we go after at least one quality stater, convert Eovaldi to a closer and a couple of relievers and pickem from the highlighted list.

 

With position players like Dalbec, Duran, Downs, Arroyo and Chatham possible additions to the roster in 2021 we can be a competitive team. We do need to get JDM and Beni going. A repeat of this years performance would really damage the teams chances.

 

 

Yes, and of those highlighted in red "may" be part of the 2021 team, but not likely as a significant net plus. More likely, they would just be innings eaters with net negative input.

 

These guys would look fine in AAA, with the best ones being called up when needed, but we need better to be considered "competitive" on paper, and this is while assuming pretty good health from our top 6-7 pitchers- something I find hard to imagine.

[Bellhorn04]

Brasier is pitching pretty well lately.

[moonslav59]

Brasier is pitching pretty well lately.

 

Yes, he has, but we've seen this before.

 

He'll likely keep his roster spot for 2021, but in no way does this lessen our need to make some serious pen additions this winter.

[moonslav59]

Brasier is pitching pretty well lately.

 

So is Barnes.

[notin]

I agree.

 

Our pitching staff is a huge "pile,"especially down roster.

 

The few young, bright hopes we have in the system are farther away than 2021. DHern is about the only real hope for anything great from our youth in 2021.

 

Assuming we get anything approaching solid seasons from Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Perez and Barnes is a stretch, for sure, but even that is only 5 guys. Add DHern & Valdez, certainly both not being sure bets and we might, if super lucky have a staff foundation of 6-7 pitchers for 2021. That leaves 6-7 gaping holes with this "pile" as the only current in-system hopes and prayers:

 

Pivetta

Taylor

Brewer

Weber

Seabold

Brasier

Walden

Mazza

Brice

Covey

Hall

Kickham

Stock

Springs

Triggs

McGrath

Poyner

Shawaryn

 

Youthful prayers:

Houck

Mata

Ward

Feltman

 

Sure, one or two may earn a slot in the top 14-15, but realistically, none should be counted on to be anything but AAA depth.

 

 

 

I think you will see Pivetta, Brasier and Taylor in MLB. Hopefully we have seen the last of Weber, Mazza, Kickham, Covey, Spings, Hall, Triggs, Leyer and Brice as Red Sox at any level after this season. I’d add Hart, but he does have options...

[Monster24]

Bad as Weber has been at times he can give a team innings and might have a chance to be #26 on the roster

[moonslav59]

I think you will see Pivetta, Brasier and Taylor in MLB. Hopefully we have seen the last of Weber, Mazza, Kickham, Covey, Spings, Hall, Triggs, Leyer and Brice as Red Sox at any level after this season. I’d add Hart, but he does have options...

 

Some will make it, and the 3 you listed seem more likely than others, but we still need 6-7 new arms.

 

Assume 14-15 arms get significant innings.

 

Those 3 plus maybe 5-6 out of Perez, Barnes, Eovaldi, ERod, Sale, DHern & Valdez and the number is 6-7, and that's with good luck on health and figuring only 15 arms are needed for significant innings.

[Kimmi]

A pile of s*** is still a pile of s***, no matter how high you pile it.

 

Not necessarily. It's when the bullpen is counted on to pitch more than their rightful share that they turn to crap. It's what happened last year. If the starters are healthy and do their jobs, the pen will be much more effective.

[moonslav59]

Not necessarily. It's when the bullpen is counted on to pitch more than their rightful share that they turn to crap. It's what happened last year. If the starters are healthy and do their jobs, the pen will be much more effective.

 

I feel the pen has over achieved the last 2 years before this one.

[notin]

Bad as Weber has been at times he can give a team innings and might have a chance to be #26 on the roster

 

Fair...

[moonslav59]

Not that #26 usually wins a team a ring, but we can do better.

[a700hitter]

Not necessarily. It's when the bullpen is counted on to pitch more than their rightful share that they turn to crap. It's what happened last year. If the starters are healthy and do their jobs, the pen will be much more effective.

A thin rotation can certainly wear out a good bullpen and turn it to crap, but I am not seeing many quality arms in the pen that would be useful behind a decent MLB starting rotation.

[Kimmi]

A thin rotation can certainly wear out a good bullpen and turn it to crap, but I am not seeing many quality arms in the pen that would be useful behind a decent MLB starting rotation.

 

I think having Hernandez and Taylor healthy could help a lot. Brasier seems to have gotten his velocity back. There are others that have already been mentioned that should be effective next year. The bullpen needs some help, I don't deny that. I just don't think it's in as dire shape as most other people do.