A Realistic View at 2020: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe if the 2020 results don't fit the preferred narrative, they are deemed meaningless by some. Most players become less capable as they age. There have been a few exceptions. My view is that the question about JDM's performance is legitimate, even though the size of the 2020 sample is small. fWAR is a historical record and should be looked at in that way.

 

It's too early yet to know if he's in a short term slump or long term decline.

[moonslav59]

I think it's 156 million?

 

2016 31

2017 31

2018 31

2019 31

2020 0

2021 16

2022 16

 

Cots shows $16M for 2020.

 

I figured $217M minus $48M ($16M x 3)

[Bellhorn04]

Cots shows $16M for 2020.

 

That doesn't reflect the COVID-19 adjustments and the fact he opted out of the season.

[harmony]

Maybe if the 2020 results don't fit the preferred narrative, they are deemed meaningless by some. Most players become less capable as they age. There have been a few exceptions. My view is that the question about JDM's performance is legitimate, even though the size of the 2020 sample is small. fWAR is a historical record and should be looked at in that way.

Whose preferered narrative would be supported by the 2020 fWAR of a negative 0.6 by J.D. Martinez and 1.3 by Kyle Seager?

[Bellhorn04]

Whose preferered narrative would be supported by the 2020 fWAR of a negative 0.6 by J.D. Martinez and 1.3 by Kyle Seager?

 

From the sounds of it, the preferred narrative he's referring to is that JDM is only in a temporary slump.

[moonslav59]

That doesn't reflect the COVID-19 adjustments and the fact he opted out of the season.

 

Does that mean we paid nothing, at all?

 

If so, I like the fact we dumped him even more.

[Bellhorn04]

Does that mean we paid nothing, at all?

 

If so, I like the fact we dumped him even more.

 

AFAIK Price is not paid by anyone for 2020.

 

So if he had stayed, the situation would be the same.

[moonslav59]

AFAIK Price is not paid by anyone for 2020.

 

So if he had stayed, the situation would be the same.

 

True, but not paying $16 or $32M due to him opting out makes the deal look better.

 

Do players who opted out really get nothing at all?

[Nick]

True, but not paying $16 or $32M due to him opting out makes the deal look better.

 

Do players who opted out really get nothing at all?

 

If they are considered "at-risk" they can get paid. I don't believe anyone has attempted to use it to get paid.

[moonslav59]

If they are considered "at-risk" they can get paid. I don't believe anyone has attempted to use it to get paid.

 

I read Price gave up the $12M (pre-rated pay) to opt out.

 

He gets nothing, this year.

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS after tonight's game:

 

(1.177 Moreland)

1.118 Dalbec

1.040 Munoz

 

.884 Verdugo

.869 Bogaerts

.864 Devers

.836 Plawecki

 

(.795 Pillar)

.761 JBJ

.717 Vazquez

.672 JD Martinez

 

.622 Chavis

.617 Peraza

.547 Arauz

.546 Arroyo

.478 Lin

.478 Beni

 

[Nick]

I read Price gave up the $12M (pre-rated pay) to opt out.

 

He gets nothing, this year.

 

I think you missed my point about a player opting out while claiming he's at risk may get paid.

 

Flow chart..

 

Opt Out? if Yes then, at risk? Yes (can substantiate), then get paid. No then you don't get paid....

 

David Price Opted out and did not claim at 'risk' so he gets nothing.

[moonslav59]

I think you missed my point about a player opting out while claiming he's at risk may get paid.

 

Flow chart..

 

Opt Out? if Yes then, at risk? Yes (can substantiate), then get paid. No then you don't get paid....

 

David Price Opted out and did not claim at 'risk' so he gets nothing.

 

Yes, I read that in the article I found.

 

He chose to not get paid.

 

I still think it makes the trade look better, along with Verdugo shining brightly.

[Larry Cook]

Are we going to see houck pitch before the season ends?

[notin]

I read Price gave up the $12M (pre-rated pay) to opt out.

 

He gets nothing, this year.

 

In fact, he lost money. Since he paid all those minor leaguers...

[moonslav59]

Are we going to see houck pitch before the season ends?

 

I'm not sure it matters.

[oldtimer]

Yes, I read that in the article I found.

 

He chose to not get paid.

 

I still think it makes the trade look better, along with Verdugo shining brightly.

 

Let alone the two not yet into the majors. If Downs makes the jump in 2021 the trade will look even better.

[Kimmi]

While I can certainly understand the point about preferring to see the Sox win when it’s more dependent on the baseball acumen of the front office as opposed to the wallet of the owner, we have reached a point (some time ago, actually) where if the Sox were NOT amongst the highest spending teams, it would be a statement to the fans that they were simply no longer worth it.

 

But it should never come to the point where the team with the third highest payroll in MLB is nightly trotting our starting pitchers with the pedigree of the current Sox staff....

 

I do not disagree with this.

 

I appreciate Henry's willingness to spend. What I don't like is the sense of entitlement from the fans when it comes to Henry's money.

[Kimmi]

The Sox could absolutely afford Mookie. They just didn't want to pay him $30 million a year till he's 40.

 

And I knew the cliff was a real possibility. My avatar was just trying to be funny about it.

 

Any team could afford Mookie. I know you understand the point, but you're overlooking or underplaying the point significantly by making that statement.

[Kimmi]

It's too early yet to know if he's in a short term slump or long term decline.

 

JD's expected stats versus his actual stats give us some reason to be optimistic. His numbers should not be as bad as they are.

 

BA: .211, xBA: .234

 

SLG: .375, xSLG: .472

 

OBA: .287, xOBA: .333

 

Those expected numbers are still not up to par with JD's typical season numbers, but better than his actual performance numbers.

[Kimmi]

Yes, I read that in the article I found.

 

He chose to not get paid.

 

I still think it makes the trade look better, along with Verdugo shining brightly.

 

The unfortunate circumstances of this year have fortunately made that entire deal look better, not that I thought it was bad to begin with.

[dgalehouse]

Fourteen games left . The Sox have to run the table just to finish at .500 . What are the odds of doing that ? But " the future looks bright . " The farm is growing .

[notin]

Fourteen games left . The Sox have to run the table just to finish at .500 . What are the odds of doing that ? But " the future looks bright . " The farm is growing .

 

 

What other option did the team have but to white flag the present and invest in the future? Take one last shot at a pennant with Betts in RF and Ryan Weber as the #3 starter? That feels counterintuitive...

[moonslav59]

Let alone the two not yet into the majors. If Downs makes the jump in 2021 the trade will look even better.

 

I'm not sure it matters when he makes the jump. It matters how well he does, if and when he arrives.

[moonslav59]

The unfortunate circumstances of this year have fortunately made that entire deal look better, not that I thought it was bad to begin with.

 

I thought the deal was the best we could expect, despite not prying a prized pitcher from the pitcher-stocked Dodgers.

 

Unlike many here, I think dumping $16M a year from Price's salary made an already good deal even better.

[notin]

I'm not sure it matters when he makes the jump. It matters how well he does, if and when he arrives.

 

Downs will be dealt for pitching. Hudson Potts is the future...

[dgalehouse]

To Chaim , Ronnie and all the boys in analytics : Thank you for participating in the 2020 MLB season. We do have a nice , little trophy for you . You deserve it . We suggest that you take the players out for pizza after the final game . They deserve it too . They tried their best.

[notin]

To Chaim , Ronnie and all the boys in analytics : Thank you for participating in the 2020 MLB season. We do have a nice , little trophy for you . You deserve it . We suggest that you take the players out for pizza after the final game . They deserve it too . They tried their best.

 

Dombrowski should be paying. He built this team, after all...

[moonslav59]

Downs will be dealt for pitching. Hudson Potts is the future...

 

With a gaping hole at 2B, maybe Casas or Mata/Ward will be traded.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Dombrowski should be paying. He built this team, after all...

 

Not quite this team. Here's a fun hy-pathetical game: if Dombro was ordered to trade Betts to get rid of Price, who would he have accepted from LA in return? I'd say -- in the very best interests of attempting to field a major league club in 2020 -- Dave would've started with Kenta Maeda (who the Dodgers were obviously ok with moving) instead of Downs and/or Wong. But that would also mean he'd take Joc Pederson or AJ Pollock instead of insisting on Verdugo.