Bloom move your asssssss

[kenmeister]

So, Bloom has basically replaced all the more expensive guys he could spare for cheaper options: Porcello, Holt, and Leon for Perez, Peraza, and Plawecki... Plus, Moreland and Pearce for Chavis and maybe Dalbec.

 

If this was a baseball card trade, it would be commons for commons, all doubles. Don't want to use up any valuable resources while leaving room in your binder for that gem mint Betts autograph (on a contract).

 

So Chavis and maybe Dalbec will be playing first base? Been one of my big questions.

[notin]

Sam Travis DFA'd.

 

And Ryan Weber lives another day...

[moonslav59]

If we assume the Sox pay the rest of the way up to $60mill, Pollock (plus $9mill) works. Sox save about $16mill AAV and get a good, but oft-injured, player back. If LA is interested, so should Bloom be.

 

Herrera would take an addition $40mill, giving the Sox an AAV reduction of about $11mill, barly better than just paying the money. The Phillies would very likely take (alot) less just to be rid of Herrera, but for those same reasons, maybe the Sox should think twice here.

 

A straight up swap for Upton only saved about $10mill, same neighborhood as the suggested $60mill cash payout. But if Upton is on his game, it might be worth it. Although replacing Price might cut into the savings a bit and make the actual reset tough.

 

Belt is flat out not worth it. His $14,6 mil AAV salary plus the additional $26mill ($8.7mill per year) is worse than just paying Price to go away...

 

The advantage of taking Herrera would be to fill an OF/DH slot, so we can trade JBJ and have a replacement- not just the tax savings.

 

Belt fill the 1B opening, but the savings are not much.

 

The Pollock/Maeda for Eovaldi/JBJ deals comes out almost dead even on the trade simulator (no money exchanging hands).

 

Pollock is owed $51M/3. Eovaldi is owed $51M/3.

 

JBJ will likely get $11.5M/1. Maeda is owed $12.5M/4.

 

The total money is about even, but the tax cost savings is about $13M in 2020.

 

I'd do this deal in a heartbeat, but it alone does not get us under the line. That's why trading Price & JBJ makes more sense.

 

Price & JBJ for Pollock & Joe Kelly was accepted, but I doubt the Dodgers agree to it.

 

We'd save $27M on the tax line, so we could afford to pay some of Price's deal, but how much would LA demand?

 

The actual money would be:

 

$96M/3 Price

$11M/1 JBJ

 

$51M/2 Pollock

$23M/2 Kelly

 

$107M to $74M in 2020 but $$96M to $74M in 2021. It's 2022 that would burn LA.

Edited January 2, 2020 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Speier inferred on twitter that while the Sox aren't shopping Betts, they are listening to any offers that come in.

 

Maybe they end up dumping betts instead of Price if they can't move Price for what they want?

 

If they are really that concerned with payroll, they should move Betts and Price and reset.

 

If we trade Betts, we might as well totally rebuild by trading anyone who has 1 year left or is not part of a longer term rebuild:

 

JBJ

JD (will opt out)

Price

Eovaldi

Workman (FA after 2020)

 

Maybe even FAs to be after 2021:

ERod

Barnes

Hembree

[mvp 78]

If we trade Betts, we might as well totally rebuild by trading anyone who has 1 year left or is not part of a longer term rebuild:

 

JBJ

JD (will opt out)

Price

Eovaldi

Workman (FA after 2020)

 

Maybe even FAs to be after 2021:

ERod

Barnes

Hembree

 

In!

[Bellhorn04]

Good one.

[notin]

The White Sox DFAd long time Notin favorite Tayron Guerrero. Make your move, Bloom...

[Monster24]

If we trade Betts, we might as well totally rebuild by trading anyone who has 1 year left or is not part of a longer term rebuild:

 

JBJ

JD (will opt out)

Price

Eovaldi

Workman (FA after 2020)

 

Maybe even FAs to be after 2021:

ERod

Barnes

Hembree

 

Then might as well trade Xander and Devers because if all these guys are unloaded the Sox will be awful for 3-4 years .

I don’t have the answers but for the Sox to reset and be competitive in the near future they need whatever fragile pitchers they keep to suddenly become injury free and for someone like Dalbec or Casas to develop into a star in addition to some Mil

Pitchers to hit it big

[vegasbob]

The clock is now post holiday ticking with only 41 days to P& C report date, followed by position players a week later. The disposition of JBJr still in the wind, and no significant additions on the public horizon. There is a thought that despite the nosedive in 2019 thata team similar to the 2018 crew could win 90+ games if the 3 starters besides Erod can go a near full season. But that doesn't address nor solve the lux tax consideration. Likely that some potential acquirers of JBJr want the certainty of the arb process completed first.

[moonslav59]

Then might as well trade Xander and Devers because if all these guys are unloaded the Sox will be awful for 3-4 years .

I don’t have the answers but for the Sox to reset and be competitive in the near future they need whatever fragile pitchers they keep to suddenly become injury free and for someone like Dalbec or Casas to develop into a star in addition to some Mil

Pitchers to hit it big

 

Not necessarily. We could resign Betts and maybe even JD. We'd have reset the tax.

 

If we miss out on Betts and & JD, in theory, we could spend up to $39.99M over the lux line for 2021.

[kenmeister]

... if the 3 starters besides Erod can go a near full season ...

 

Can someone remind me who the 5th starter is again now?

 

Odds are that one of the oft-injured 3 (Sale, Price, Eovaldi) will make most of their starts, one will make about half their starts, and one will miss most of the season due to injury. Having all 3 healthy for 2020 seems unlikely. But even if they are, will they all be effective?

[oldtimer]

Not necessarily. We could resign Betts and maybe even JD. We'd have reset the tax.

 

If we miss out on Betts and & JD, in theory, we could spend up to $39.99M over the lux line for 2021.

 

That is very likely one of the scenarios being discussed in the Sox front office. Reset, hold onto the best young core players and make a major effort starting in 2021. One very lean year might also get us a very good draft position.

[moonslav59]

Can someone remind me who the 5th starter is again now?

 

Odds are that one of the oft-injured 3 (Sale, Price, Eovaldi) will make most of their starts, one will make about half their starts, and one will miss most of the season due to injury. Having all 3 healthy for 2020 seems unlikely. But even if they are, will they all be effective?

 

If healthy...

 

1) Sale

2) ERod

3) Price

4) Eovaldi

5) Perez

6) Velazquez

7) Shawaryn

8) R Weber

9) K Hart

10) D Reyes

Not on 40 man: Houck/Johnson/McGrath/Kent/Mata/Wade

 

[moonslav59]

That is very likely one of the scenarios being discussed in the Sox front office. Reset, hold onto the best young core players and make a major effort starting in 2021. One very lean year might also get us a very good draft position.

 

Trading Betts and then resigning him makes a lot of sense for 2021 and beyond, but it all but ends any hopes for 2020 while hurting ticket sales and viewership, this year. If we deal Betts, why hang onto JD? He's opting out, regardless. (Again, we could bring him back, too.)

 

Dump Price and/or Eovaldi to open up some spending room for 2021 and 2022.

 

I'm not saying I want to trade Betts, but if we do, then just go for it.

[a700hitter]

Scoops has the goods:

 

@ChrisCotillo

Red Sox traded Sandy Leon to the Guardians, who then non-tendered Kevin Plawecki. Sox then scooped up Plawecki, who will be cheaper than Leon in 2020.

 

Chess, not checkers.

It's an exchange of dollar store garbage.

[moonslav59]

It's an exchange of dollar store garbage.

 

Do they sell chess sets at Dollar General?

[a700hitter]

Do they sell chess sets at Dollar General?

Yes, with cardboard boards.

[moonslav59]

Yes, with cardboard boards.

 

Maybe even with checker, included!

[jacksonianmarch]

I never understood the man love for Leon. DD paid him $2.2 mil last year. Plawecki is a fine backup. Saving $1.3 mil was a smart move

[moonslav59]

I never understood the man love for Leon. DD paid him $2.2 mil last year. Plawecki is a fine backup. Saving $1.3 mil was a smart move

 

It was more Sale & Price love:

 

Sale ERA with these catchers (300+ ABs)

2.51 Pierzynski

2.79 Leon

2.98 Navarro

3.02 Flowers

3.36 Phegley

4.61 Vazquez

 

Price: (600+ ABs)

2.85 Molina

2.96 Leon

3.06 Jaso

3.61 Shoppach

4.27 Vaz

 

Maybe Porcello, to a lesser extent (300+ PAs)

4.17 Avila

4.19 Leon

4.32 Laird

4.93 Swihart

4.96 Vaz

5.38 Holaday

 

 

 

 

[harmony]

Because of fewer months of team control, Mookie Betts' trade value may go down as the Red Sox approach midseason.

 

On a more positive note, the underwater contracts of David Price and Nathan Eovaldi should become more valuable because the trading partner would assume less of each player's negative value.

 

Of course health and 2020 performance may have a greater impact on trade value.

[moonslav59]

Because of fewer months of team control, Mookie Betts' trade value may go down as the Red Sox approach midseason.

 

On a more positive note, the underwater contracts of David Price and Nathan Eovaldi should become more valuable because the trading partner would assume less of each player's negative value.

 

Of course health and 2020 performance may have a greater impact on trade value.

 

You never know. Some teams that can't afford to pay Betts $27M for 6 months but find themselves in the playoff hunt in July, might be able to muster up $9M for 2 months of Betts and a post season scenario.

 

Price and Eovaldi's value could rise or fall greatly based on their first 3-4 months of 2020. I'd try to trade one before ST'ing.

[mvp 78]

Boston can't and won't move Betts unless it gets an overpay, a haul of MLB-ready prospects. Otherwise, the Sox would be telling fans they're giving up on 2020. And Red Sox fans won't accept -- or support -- a bridge year.

 

Why not? It's not like we haven't had bridge years before.

[Bellhorn04]

Why not? It's not like we haven't had bridge years before.

 

This isn't a bridge year, it's a chess year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Why not? It's not like we haven't had bridge years before.

 

Sox haven’t punted a season before a season in recent memory. This is the first year where after an underachieving season, the Sox did nothing that I can remember

[Bellhorn04]

Sox haven’t punted a season before a season in recent memory. This is the first year where after an underachieving season, the Sox did nothing that I can remember

 

And the front office has been insistent that they're not punting this season.

[kenmeister]

If healthy...

 

1) Sale

2) ERod

3) Price

4) Eovaldi

5) Perez

6) Velazquez

7) Shawaryn

8) R Weber

9) K Hart

10) D Reyes

Not on 40 man: Houck/Johnson/McGrath/Kent/Mata/Wade

 

 

Perez, I must have missed that.

[kenmeister]

Trading Betts and then resigning him makes a lot of sense for 2021 and beyond, but it all but ends any hopes for 2020 while hurting ticket sales and viewership, this year. If we deal Betts, why hang onto JD? He's opting out, regardless. (Again, we could bring him back, too.)

 

Dump Price and/or Eovaldi to open up some spending room for 2021 and 2022.

 

I'm not saying I want to trade Betts, but if we do, then just go for it.

 

Yeah there's definitely an argument to be made for trading Betts, Price, Eovaldi, JD, E-Rod, Sale, Workman and restock the farm system.

[notin]

Sox haven’t punted a season before a season in recent memory. This is the first year where after an underachieving season, the Sox did nothing that I can remember

 

 

I didn’t know not signing any free agents by January 3rd was punting a season.

 

Dopey me. I did think trading Lester and Lackey that July was a better example...

[mvp 78]

This isn't a bridge year, it's a chess year.

 

I thought it was Connect 4? Connect Price's contract to Betts' expiring deal to JBJ's contract to a luxury tax that ownership doesn't want to pay.