A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[vegasbob]

... thus answering one question this off-season.

 

A good move by Bloom, but certainly not a needle mover.

 

So who gets the DFA?

 

My first thought is Ryan Weber, with Sam Travis as the DFA understudy ...

 

You hit the understudy on the head as another Sox , relatively young, flames out after multiple opportunities at the MLB level. Like Swihart, I think Sam T. had enugh exposure to see if the upside was there or not.

[moonslav59]

MLB network top ten worst deals of decade

Sox had 3 -Castillo,Sandoval and Crawford

 

Price might make the 2016-2025 decade list, if anyone does one.

[oldtimer]

You hit the understudy on the head as another Sox , relatively young, flames out after multiple opportunities at the MLB level. Like Swihart, I think Sam T. had enugh exposure to see if the upside was there or not.

 

Travis was DFA'd but it was a matter of letting go of someone and his number came up. We have other options at his position (assuming 1st base with some outfield). He as been a marginal player and hasn't shown a great deal of improvement so the choice made s ome sense.

[oldtimer]

Price might make the 2016-2025 decade list, if anyone does one.

 

The talk is rachetting up of a Betts/Price move involving the Dodgers. That would define 2020 as a reset year but make 2021 a year to move forward. Something is likely to happen soon as both clubs have incentives to make it happen soon.

[Larry Cook]

We missed out on Harris for the bullpen.

[moonslav59]

The talk is rachetting up of a Betts/Price move involving the Dodgers. That would define 2020 as a reset year but make 2021 a year to move forward. Something is likely to happen soon as both clubs have incentives to make it happen soon.

 

I've made about 10 deals on the simulator involving Betts & Price or Betts and Eovaldi.

 

This is my favorite:

 

Betts, Price + $3M

 

for

 

Pollock, Kelly & Maeda to balance the money a little + Beaty (1B/OF), Downs minors 2B, Cartaya minors C,

[jacksonianmarch]

The talk is ratcheting up because the Dodgers won’t give Lux for Lindor. They’re shifting focus

[jacksonianmarch]

If Bloom moves Mookie, I’m telling you right now, nobody will be pleased with the return. You’re not getting Lux, May or Ruiz. You’re not prying Smith from them. You may get Seager. You may get Maeda. You may get Chris Taylor and some minor leaguers you never heard of. But it’ll work out if history says anything about Bloom’s teams

[moonslav59]

The talk is ratcheting up because the Dodgers won’t give Lux for Lindor. They’re shifting focus

 

If we get the Dodgers to take Price, I'd not demand Lux.

 

If we take back Pollock to offset some of Price's cost, I still wouldn't demand Lux.

 

If we offer Betts + Price for Pollock, I doubt we can even get May. The simulator shows we'd have to give Chavis or Dalbec to even it up.

 

More likely, maybe this:

 

Betts + Price

 

for

 

Pollock, Urias & Busch

or

Pollock, Gonsolin & Gray

[moonslav59]

Would the Dodger take Betts & Price for May or Urias- straight up?

 

The simulator says we'd need to give this much cash to even up these single player return deals:

 

$56M for May

$45M Verdugo

$39M Ruiz

$24M Urias

$16M Downs

$14M Gonsolin

$13M Gray

$5M Cartaya

$2M Busch

$1 Vargas

$0M Santana, Estevez, Rios or Wong.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Trading Betts would really grind the gears of a lot of fans.

 

It's one of those things that changes history. It means that on the back of his baseball card there will always be another team besides Boston.

 

I'll be very surprised if they do it. Not shocked though, I guess.

[OH FOY]

I'm still interested how this simulator is. I remember using something like this in the NFL Draft, Trade down, Trade up, Trade this guy, for this or that pick, or for another player.

Lot of Fun, even wrote my projections down.

Never hit it once.

[jacksonianmarch]

You’re not getting May, Urias, Ruiz, or Lux. The Dodgers aren’t moving off that stanchion. They’ve got enough talent on the big league or minor league level to make some moves and to take on Betts, Bloom will just have to be creative in who he takes

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You’re not getting May, Urias, Ruiz, or Lux. The Dodgers aren’t moving off that stanchion. They’ve got enough talent on the big league or minor league level to make some moves and to take on Betts, Bloom will just have to be creative in who he takes

 

Then the Dodgers aren't getting Betts. No one -- especially not a first-year Chief Officer -- trades a generational talent for mediocrity or past-their-prime bodies. It'll be depressing enough if Mookie is traded for any team's top prospects, because it will most likely take a lot of time waiting to see if even one is actually a good, much less great, MLBer.

 

The Sox will have to be overwhelmed to move Mookie; laugh all you want, but at least three of those four names would have to be included. And I don't care -- nor, I bet Bloom does, either -- if some data site gives them a value of kajillion dollars because they're only. just. prospects.

 

It actually made me laugh when some posters were adamant that LA would never even deal Seager for Betts straight up; if the Dodgers had Lindor, they'd trade Seager for Betts in a second, because at that point Mookie would become so much more valuable to them.

 

How many GMs trying to win it all in 2020 wouldn't do Lux and Seager for Lindor and Betts? Which pair would make LA the hands-down favorite?

[a700hitter]

Trading Betts would really grind the gears of a lot of fans.

 

It's one of those things that changes history. It means that on the back of his baseball card there will always be another team besides Boston.

 

I'll be very surprised if they do it. Not shocked though, I guess.

Bloom has gone on record numerous times about the intent to keep Mookie long term. I am not against trading him, but that is not his mindset. I take him at his word.

[moonslav59]

Trading Betts would really grind the gears of a lot of fans.

 

It's one of those things that changes history. It means that on the back of his baseball card there will always be another team besides Boston.

 

I'll be very surprised if they do it. Not shocked though, I guess.

 

Does trading him differ much from losing him to free agency and getting just a measly comp pick for him?

 

I'm a huge Betts fan. I'm on record suggesting we pay him around $350M/10. Not many here agree with me on this, but losing him for nothing would hurt more than trading him for something. Plus, trading him would help us reset and better position us to make a bold offer to him after the 2020 season is over.

 

If we can trade JBJ and Price to get under the line and extend Betts, I'd prefer that, but I'm wondering how possible that is, right now.

[kenmeister]

Bloom has gone on record numerous times about the intent to keep Mookie long term. I am not against trading him, but that is not his mindset. I take him at his word.

 

The Angels locked up Mike Trout long-term and it hasn't helped them win. I'm against locking up Mookie long term if the dollars are crazy.

[jacksonianmarch]

Does trading him differ much from losing him to free agency and getting just a measly comp pick for him?

 

I'm a huge Betts fan. I'm on record suggesting we pay him around $350M/10. Not many here agree with me on this, but losing him for nothing would hurt more than trading him for something. Plus, trading him would help us reset and better position us to make a bold offer to him after the 2020 season is over.

 

If we can trade JBJ and Price to get under the line and extend Betts, I'd prefer that, but I'm wondering how possible that is, right now.

 

If Mookie is true to his word and is taking his talents to the market, then allowing him to walk for literally nothing while fielding a clear substandard team is just dumb. If 2020 is a bridge year, then Mookie needs to be moved for the highest bid. It’s that simple. If the market will dictate where Mookie signs and you want him long term, then be the biggest offer

[jacksonianmarch]

Let’s be realistic in this thread, as it is the “realistic view of 2020” thread.

 

Is Bloom playing this offseason like he’s going for it?

 

Clearly not. If he was going for it, he wouldn’t have let Porcello walk and replaced him with a cheaper pile of horseshit that’s less durable. Holt walked and he’s replaced with a versatile but far less offensively gifted pile of s*** in Peraza.

 

Are the Sox a championship caliber squad?

 

The Sox were an 84 win team. They got smoked by two teams in the division and the top team just added the best pitcher in baseball. They’re paring payroll while the AL is getting far tougher. So no, barring a fountain of youth appearing in Fenway, this team is not championship caliber

 

Do the Sox think Mookie will give them a discount?

 

He has said many, many times that he wants to hit the open market. He’s done nothing to come off that mountain. So my bet is Mookie signs with the highest bidder after 2020

 

So if the Sox aren’t actively upgrading their roster and they aren’t already championship caliber then why the hell would you hang onto Mookie, especially when he’s given every indication that he’s going to sign with the highest bidder in FA?

 

Deal him for the best return and if you want him back, don’t be outbid after 2020

[notin]

Then the Dodgers aren't getting Betts. No one -- especially not a first-year Chief Officer -- trades a generational talent for mediocrity or past-their-prime bodies. It'll be depressing enough if Mookie is traded for any team's top prospects, because it will most likely take a lot of time waiting to see if even one is actually a good, much less great, MLBer.

 

The Sox will have to be overwhelmed to move Mookie; laugh all you want, but at least three of those four names would have to be included. And I don't care -- nor, I bet Bloom does, either -- if some data site gives them a value of kajillion dollars because they're only. just. prospects.

 

It actually made me laugh when some posters were adamant that LA would never even deal Seager for Betts straight up; if the Dodgers had Lindor, they'd trade Seager for Betts in a second, because at that point Mookie would become so much more valuable to them.

 

How many GMs trying to win it all in 2020 wouldn't do Lux and Seager for Lindor and Betts? Which pair would make LA the hands-down favorite?

 

 

I don’t think Bloom should even be thinking about Seager in any Betts trade.

 

If Betts had more than a year of control or the Sox were willing to pay some salary, they’d get a better package. But one year of a rental player really isn’t worth that level of prospect package to any team. Manny Machado was a superstar talent when LA acquired him and he didn’t come close to getting 3 top 50 prospects. (They did get one good prospect.). And while they only acquired him for half a season, he was also making much, much less than $30mill.

 

Of course some of the rumors have the Sox dealing both Price and Betts, in which case the return for Betts will be even less...

[mvp 78]

The Angels locked up Mike Trout long-term and it hasn't helped them win. I'm against locking up Mookie long term if the dollars are crazy.

 

The Red Sox are known for winning multiple World Series titles without ever committing to long term high dollar contracts!

[moonslav59]

You’re not getting May, Urias, Ruiz, or Lux. The Dodgers aren’t moving off that stanchion. They’ve got enough talent on the big league or minor league level to make some moves and to take on Betts, Bloom will just have to be creative in who he takes

 

I tend to agree, but if I think we take some salary back- hopefully not Pederson, maybe Urias or Ruiz could come back.

 

Pollock- owed $51M/3 but just $12M on Lux Tax line.

Kelly- owed $16.7M/2 ($8.33M for each of the next 2 seasons).

 

That allows for a better return but still without one of their best prospects.

 

While the trade simulator is far from perfect, it might offer some ballpark options on what the Sox could expect in return for Betts (+50) & Price (-55.3) for Pollock (-39.3) & ________. If you add Joe Kelly (-12.7)to soften the financial blow to LA by a little more, the remaining differential is such:

 

Pollock without Kelly: 34.0

 

Pollock with Kelly: 46.7

 

Here are some players that, in theory, could be mixed and matched to come close to those numbers:

 

(These guys are too highly rated: Lux 85.1, May 61.4, Seager 57.4 & probably Verdugo 50.1.)

 

44.7 Ruiz C

29.1 Urias SP- majors

21.9 Downs 2B

19.9 Gonsolin P

18.3 Gray P

12.2 Maeda SP-majors

10.3 Cartaya C

7.6 Busch 2B

5.4 Vargas 1B/3B

4.7 Santana 1B/3B

4.5 Estevez 2B

4.5 Rios 1B

4.3 Wong C

3.3 Beaty 1B/OF majors (nice platoon with Chavis at 1B?)

 

I admit, I don't know jack about Dodger prospects, but in terms of what we need, I'm thinking something like this looks best, in theory:

 

Just Pollock (34 total in return):

19.9 Gonsolin P

7.6 Busch 2B

4.3 Wong C

3.3 Beaty 1B

 

Pollock & Kelly (46.7)

21.9 Downs

19.9 Gonsolin

4.3 Wong

 

or

19.9 Gonsolin P

12.2 Maeda P

10.3 Cartaya C

3.3 Beaty 1B

 

These deals assume no money added to the deal. If we add money, we can sweeten the return.

Add about $10M and maybe...

21.9 Downs 2B

19.9 Gonsolin P

10.3 Cartaya C

3.3 Beaty 1B/OF majors

 

[mvp 78]

If Mookie is true to his word and is taking his talents to the market, then allowing him to walk for literally nothing while fielding a clear substandard team is just dumb. If 2020 is a bridge year, then Mookie needs to be moved for the highest bid. It’s that simple. If the market will dictate where Mookie signs and you want him long term, then be the biggest offer

 

Yup.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox are known for winning multiple World Series titles without ever committing to long term high dollar contracts!

 

Sarcasm?

[moonslav59]

I don’t think Bloom should even be thinking about Seager in any Betts trade.

 

If Betts had more than a year of control or the Sox were willing to pay some salary, they’d get a better package. But one year of a rental player really isn’t worth that level of prospect package to any team. Manny Machado was a superstar talent when LA acquired him and he didn’t come close to getting 3 top 50 prospects. (They did get one good prospect.). And while they only acquired him for half a season, he was also making much, much less than $30mill.

 

Of course some of the rumors have the Sox dealing both Price and Betts, in which case the return for Betts will be even less...

 

No Seager or Pederson in return.

 

We'd need players that might help for 4-5 years- at a low cost.

 

If we take salary back to lessen the Price salary hit to the Dodgers, then Pollock is the man.

[mvp 78]

Sarcasm?

 

Hell no! That's not sarcasm! When have the Sox ever signed a big money guy long term and won a World Series?!? It's just not happened! They are definitely nothing like that Evil Empire down in the Bronx! All the FA's we have signed were cheap and manageable! The contracts we won multiple World Series never put us in a position where we had to slash payroll!

[notin]

Hell no! That's not sarcasm! When have the Sox ever signed a big money guy long term and won a World Series?!? It's just not happened! They are definitely nothing like that Evil Empire down in the Bronx! All the FA's we have signed were cheap and manageable! The contracts we won multiple World Series never put us in a position where we had to slash payroll!

 

Double sarcasm?

[moonslav59]

Hell no! That's not sarcasm! When have the Sox ever signed a big money guy long term and won a World Series?!? It's just not happened! They are definitely nothing like that Evil Empire down in the Bronx! All the FA's we have signed were cheap and manageable! The contracts we won multiple World Series never put us in a position where we had to slash payroll!

 

So, 8 years to Manny and Pedey (not big money to Pedey, though) plus 7 years to Price and Crawford (no ring for CC) don't count?

[mvp 78]

Double sarcasm?

 

You guys just don't know how to read my true feelings over the internet. I clearly believe that the Sox have never won a World Series when signing high priced FA's!

[notin]

No Seager or Pederson in return.

 

We'd need players that might help for 4-5 years- at a low cost.

 

If we take salary back to lessen the Price salary hit to the Dodgers, then Pollock is the man.

 

To me, Pederson vs Pollock depends on how much the latter sweetens the pot.

 

Personally, I’m on board with dealing Price plus $21 mill to Texas for Rougned Odor and keeping Betts in RF...