A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

gun to my head: the JBj arb deal was 100% part of the "walkback" from the JH mandate.

"see, we are going to spend $$"

 

I could see that logic.

 

I always felt a big part of the reason for free agency was the PR in telling the fanbase "See? We're not letting money be a reason we are not competitive."

[mvp 78]

gun to my head: the JBj arb deal was 100% part of the "walkback" from the JH mandate.

"see, we are going to spend $$"

 

Sounds about right too.

[moonslav59]

I'm not buying it. Losing JBJ was not going to lose any viewership of fan excitement, especially, if they followed it up with a signing of another great defensive CF'er.

[Slasher9]

I'm not buying it. Losing JBJ was not going to lose any viewership of fan excitement, especially, if they followed it up with a signing of another great defensive CF'er.

 

JBj is (and has been for years) a big (see: yuuuuge) part of Red Sox/NESN marketing machine.....

[S5Dewey]

Here's my theory on JBJ:

 

Henry went to Bloom and told him to make sure he kept him, because he was having a recurring nightmare of how bad our outfield looked with neither Mookie or JBJ out there.

 

IMO that may not be far from the truth. We get spoiled watching some of those players out there and begin to think that anyone can do what they do. Well, they can't. And yes, they could have non-tendered him, offered him half what he was going to get in arbitration, have him sign with another team for more and then having what is obviously a fire sale. That should sell tickets... right?

 

His offense is the Clay Buchholz of hitting. Feast or famine. The difference is that JBJ stays on the field and his defense alone makes him worth more than half what he's getting.

[notin]

IMO that may not be far from the truth. We get spoiled watching some of those players out there and begin to think that anyone can do what they do. Well, they can't. And yes, they could have non-tendered him, offered him half what he was going to get in arbitration, have him sign with another team for more and then having what is obviously a fire sale. That should sell tickets... right?

 

His offense is the Clay Buchholz of hitting. Feast or famine. The difference is that JBJ stays on the field and his defense alone makes him worth more than half what he's getting.

 

I can agree with that. But his offense rarely makes up for the other half. And outfielders with close or equal defense are getting a lot less than Bradley. JuanLagares just signed a contract that might pay him $1.4mill. Billy Hamilton, another elite defender, just signed a minor league deal. Kevin Pillar was non-tendered over an estimated arbitration cost for less than JBJ received.

 

I even said it before - a non-tender and re-sign was the best plan here. It does happen all the time...

[jung]

JBj is (and has been for years) a big (see: yuuuuge) part of Red Sox/NESN marketing machine.....

 

Young players as they come up in the Sox organization are the ONLY players that are a big part of Sox Marketing. The Sox don't market any players no matter how great they might be long term which is in part why 10-11-12 years for Mookie is not that appealing to the Sox.

 

The Sox market:

1.Fenway Park in all its historical glory plus its newfound family friendliness (which did not exist when I was a season ticket holder)

2.Speculation over how potentially great a particular edition of the Sox might be in a given year

3.Their charitable work

4.Their minor league organization

5.NESN

6.Fenway Group's other sports enterprises

 

Thats it. They don't seriously market ANY individual player long term.

 

I am surprised that they have virtually given up on item 2 of my list at least for 2020. But they think they can survive it in the short run and they are probably right.

[S5Dewey]

I'm not buying it. Losing JBJ was not going to lose any viewership of fan excitement, especially, if they followed it up with a signing of another great defensive CF'er.

 

With all due respect, that's a rather specious argument. When is the last time you heard someone say, "They traded so-and-so and I'm NEVER going to watch that team again!!" - and made it stick?

 

JBJ may not be the second coming of Mike Trout but he's not the second coming of Billy Hamilton with his career .623 OPS either.

[notin]

With all due respect, that's a rather specious argument. When is the last time you heard someone say, "They traded so-and-so and I'm NEVER going to watch that team again!!" - and made it stick?

 

JBJ may not be the second coming of Mike Trout but he's not the second coming of Billy Hamilton with his career .605 OPS either.

 

true, but he is a lot closer to being Hamilton than Trout. B-R.com lists his most similar hitter by age as Drew Stubbs, a guy whose career flamed out at age 32...

[S5Dewey]

true, but he is a lot closer to being Hamilton than Trout. B-R.com lists his most similar hitter by age as Drew Stubbs, a guy whose career flamed out at age 32...

 

That was pretty obvious. Nobody is Mike Trout... but are you predicting that JBJ is going to flame out in just over 2 years?

[mvp 78]

Young players as they come up in the Sox organization are the ONLY players that are a big part of Sox Marketing. The Sox don't market any players no matter how great they might be long term which is in part why 10-11-12 years for Mookie is not that appealing to the Sox.

.

 

David Ortiz

[jung]

David Ortiz

 

Not heavily marketed by the Sox. David marketed himself and very successfully.

[a700hitter]

JBj is (and has been for years) a big (see: yuuuuge) part of Red Sox/NESN marketing machine.....

I haven't noticed that.

[mvp 78]

Not heavily marketed by the Sox. David marketed himself and very successfully.

 

hahahahahahahahahahaha............ Good one.

[moonslav59]

With all due respect, that's a rather specious argument. When is the last time you heard someone say, "They traded so-and-so and I'm NEVER going to watch that team again!!" - and made it stick?

 

JBJ may not be the second coming of Mike Trout but he's not the second coming of Billy Hamilton with his career .623 OPS either.

 

There were better offensive CF'ers who play great D than Hamilton, but I doubt anyone would feel like we were packing it in by trading JBJ, especially, if they followed it quickly with a CF'er signing.

 

Look, JBJ has been my favorite player since even before he was a rookie, but $11M is too much.

[notin]

There were better offensive CF'ers who play great D than Hamilton, but I doubt anyone would feel like we were packing it in by trading JBJ, especially, if they followed it quickly with a CF'er signing.

 

Look, JBJ has been my favorite player since even before he was a rookie, but $11M is too much.

 

But you have to admit there was some enjoyment in watching softlaw heavily overhype JBJ and then disappear after the early struggles

[moonslav59]

But you have to admit there was some enjoyment in watching softlaw heavily overhype JBJ and then disappear after the early struggles

 

That and his Theo apologist rants were classic.

 

His Crisp was a God and Jake sucked rants were annoying.

 

I did agree with him on Manny, but that was about it.

[Kimmi]

Sounds like a man with a plan(s).

 

[Kimmi]

Sounds like a man with a plan(s).

 

He has a plan. Henry needs to have the patience to let Bloom see his plan through.

[Kimmi]

I'm telling ya, they're not going to dump JBJ. They held onto him until the situation with Mookie got settled knowing that they'd part with one of them and keep the other. Now that Mookie is gone they're not going to completely decimate that outfield with nobody in the minors to fill his spot.

 

Nor should they. I don't get all the eagerness to trade JBJ.

[moonslav59]

Nor should they. I don't get all the eagerness to trade JBJ.

 

It’s not about trading him for the sake of just doing something. It would be to improve the team beyond 2020 and or to free up more budget space for acquiring pitching. We have a huge whole in our staff. If trading JBJ allows to get a better pitcher than the step down value between JBJ and Pillar, then we can be better in 2020, too.

If that can not be done, then we keep Jackie.

Edited February 12, 2020 by moonslav59

[notin]

Nor should they. I don't get all the eagerness to trade JBJ.

 

To make room for Puig. Just some board fodder. In reality, I knew it was about as likely as the Sox signing me to be the closer...

[Nick]

He has a plan. Henry needs to have the patience to let Bloom see his plan through.

 

Yep.....Yep.....

[SCM33]

I doubt trading JBJ loses one fan or NESN viewer.

 

If you read over the JBJ threads of years past, you'd think most would be thankful (not me).

 

It would be like Thanksgiving day for me. Nothing is more thankful than Thanksgiving. He gets 11M, Eovaldi gets 17M.......Betts gets the door.

[oldtimer]

It would be like Thanksgiving day for me. Nothing is more thankful than Thanksgiving. He gets 11M, Eovaldi gets 17M.......Betts gets the door.

 

Betts gets the door because he would push us over the competitive balance tax threshold foor 2020 when we don't have the pitching to be fully competitive. Betts also refused $30 mil for 10 years and the indications are he is looking for $35 mil for 12 or 13 years. I think that would be another albatross contract that would further limit our chances of becoming competitive next year and the many following years of that contract. It was a difficult decision but Bloom did the right thing.

 

Letting go of JBJ is also smart if someone will trade some pitcching for him. Pillar is a place holder and his right hand bat is needed with our lefty outfield. I said it elsewhere, but we have a couple of up and coming outfield prospects, either of which may emerge in late 2020 or 2021. I believe the Pillar move takes that into consideration.

[mvp 78]

300/10 - not an albatross

 

420/12 - albatross

 

Really?

Edited February 12, 2020 by mvp 78

[moonslav59]

300/10 - not an albatross

 

420/10 - albatross

 

Really?

 

I'm thinking $400/12 or 420/13 with an AVV of $30.3 or $30.2M.

 

It might suck years 11 to 12 or 13, but if we front end load the deal, we could probably trade him those years, if the lux tax is still around and a serious issue.

 

He's not taking $300M/10. I think the minimum he gets, barring an injury or serious 2020 decline is $350M/10.

[Bellhorn04]

300/10 - not an albatross

 

420/10 - albatross

 

Really?

 

300/10 could be an albatross too, obviously.

 

It's about drawing the line somewhere, isn't it?

 

It's a difference of 12 million a year.

 

It's not much different from you, moon and notin pointing out that 11 million is too much for JBJ, but 6 or 7 million would be OK.

[moonslav59]

300/10 could be an albatross too, obviously.

 

It's about drawing the line somewhere, isn't it?

 

It's a difference of 12 million a year.

 

It's not much different from you, moon and notin pointing out that 11 million is too much for JBJ, but 6 or 7 million would be OK.

 

$11-12M is very significant, even as prices and tax lines keep going up.

[Bellhorn04]

$11-12M is very significant, even as prices and tax lines keep going up.

 

Of course it is.