A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

One idea we bandied about was that the Red Sox decision on whether to punt 2020 might be based on the report on Sale's health.

 

Sale's report was good, so in theory they should be less likely to punt now.

[notin]

2004 Doug Mientkiewicz taught me that exceptional 1B defense can make a real difference. He only hit .215 for us but was a contributor.

 

So who was the better 1B for the Sox that year? Millar or Mientkiewicz? Bear in mind, Doug only started 26 games or the Red Sox. If his defense was so valuable, not sure why he didn't start more often...

[notin]

People still trying to kick Devers off of 3b for no good reason. Have y'all even watched Dalbec play 3b? He's adequate. His skillset isn't enough to move Devers off of 3b while Devers is still developing. Devers can be moved to 3b 9 years from now. There's no rush.

 

... which is why the Sox might as well move Dalbec, who many scouts describe getting better with a plus plus arm, which does nothing at 1b.

 

I'd try him in RF before 1b. If the Sox don't trade Betts, there will be an opening there next season and the farm's outfield depth is all but non-existant...

[jacksonianmarch]

One idea we bandied about was that the Red Sox decision on whether to punt 2020 might be based on the report on Sale's health.

 

Sale's report was good, so in theory they should be less likely to punt now.

 

Yeah, but people expecting vintage Sale are going to be sorely mistaken. Remember, the elbow issue didn’t creep in until the summer. By that point, he’d already become incredibly homer prone and had a massive drop in velocity. The last two seasons haven’t really given confidence to the idea that he can stay healthy through a whole season either since he essentially finished both seasons diminished and hurt. If Andrews handed out a guarantee that Sale was gonna pitch like 2015, then heck yeah you go for it. But he didn’t and he cannot. He had his elbow “repaired” with PrP. The only people who know the exact injury are either not allowed to talk or have steered the narrative to an unbelievable point. You don’t treat standard inflammation with PRP and essentially have a 3-4 month re evaluation. You treat a partial tear that way. And the PRP repair does lead people to return faster but also leaves guys further diminished than they were going into the procedure if it doesn’t outright fail when throwing is ramped up again. If you get 150IP and near 4ERA from Sale this year, you take it. The days of 200IP and sub 3ERA are gone.

 

With the holes in place and the financial restrictions, a reset and tear down is needed. Bloom wasn’t just brought in to make magic happen, he was brought in to negotiate team friendly deals or make shrewd trades that work best for the Sox in the long run. I think you’ll be surprised at the direction they will go

[mvp 78]

... which is why the Sox might as well move Dalbec, who many scouts describe getting better with a plus plus arm, which does nothing at 1b.

 

I'd try him in RF before 1b. If the Sox don't trade Betts, there will be an opening there next season and the farm's outfield depth is all but non-existant...

 

Ok.

[notin]

Ok.

 

Don't worry. No one will move your man-crush off 3b any time soon...

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, but people expecting vintage Sale are going to be sorely mistaken. Remember, the elbow issue didn’t creep in until the summer. By that point, he’d already become incredibly homer prone and had a massive drop in velocity. The last two seasons haven’t really given confidence to the idea that he can stay healthy through a whole season either since he essentially finished both seasons diminished and hurt. If Andrews handed out a guarantee that Sale was gonna pitch like 2015, then heck yeah you go for it. But he didn’t and he cannot. He had his elbow “repaired” with PrP. The only people who know the exact injury are either not allowed to talk or have steered the narrative to an unbelievable point. You don’t treat standard inflammation with PRP and essentially have a 3-4 month re evaluation. You treat a partial tear that way. And the PRP repair does lead people to return faster but also leaves guys further diminished than they were going into the procedure if it doesn’t outright fail when throwing is ramped up again. If you get 150IP and near 4ERA from Sale this year, you take it. The days of 200IP and sub 3ERA are gone.

 

With the holes in place and the financial restrictions, a reset and tear down is needed. Bloom wasn’t just brought in to make magic happen, he was brought in to negotiate team friendly deals or make shrewd trades that work best for the Sox in the long run. I think you’ll be surprised at the direction they will go

 

We shall see, Swami, we shall see.

[mvp 78]

Don't worry. No one will move your man-crush off 3b any time soon...

 

If the hill I die on is "Devers is a really good player and we shouldn't mess around with him" I'm fine with that.

[kenmeister]

Yeah, but people expecting vintage Sale are going to be sorely mistaken. Remember, the elbow issue didn’t creep in until the summer. By that point, he’d already become incredibly homer prone and had a massive drop in velocity. The last two seasons haven’t really given confidence to the idea that he can stay healthy through a whole season either since he essentially finished both seasons diminished and hurt. If Andrews handed out a guarantee that Sale was gonna pitch like 2015, then heck yeah you go for it. But he didn’t and he cannot. He had his elbow “repaired” with PrP. The only people who know the exact injury are either not allowed to talk or have steered the narrative to an unbelievable point. You don’t treat standard inflammation with PRP and essentially have a 3-4 month re evaluation. You treat a partial tear that way. And the PRP repair does lead people to return faster but also leaves guys further diminished than they were going into the procedure if it doesn’t outright fail when throwing is ramped up again. If you get 150IP and near 4ERA from Sale this year, you take it. The days of 200IP and sub 3ERA are gone.

 

With the holes in place and the financial restrictions, a reset and tear down is needed. Bloom wasn’t just brought in to make magic happen, he was brought in to negotiate team friendly deals or make shrewd trades that work best for the Sox in the long run. I think you’ll be surprised at the direction they will go

 

I'm still expecting him to have Tommy John surgery at the end of spring training, or after about 3 starts.

[mvp 78]

I'm still expecting him to have Tommy John surgery at the end of spring training, or after about 3 starts.

 

Price trained him in the arts of having a magical healing elbow.

[moonslav59]

People still trying to kick Devers off of 3b for no good reason. Have y'all even watched Dalbec play 3b? He's adequate. His skillset isn't enough to move Devers off of 3b while Devers is still developing. Devers can be moved to 3b 9 years from now. There's no rush.

 

I said "It is not the right thing to do" to move Devers to 1B, even if our defense would be improved.

 

Dalbec is rated much higher than "adequate" at 3B, and while Devers greatly improved his defense, last year, and may continue improving, let's not kid ourselves. He started near the worst in MLB and has moved up to adequate or maybe a little better.

 

Again, I'm NOT for moving Devers to 1B, right now, but I do believe, from what I've heard and read, Dalbec is a better defensive 3Bman at this moment in time.

[moonslav59]

Because some people have had a grudge against Devers since day one because he looks soft and slow (even though he's faster than Beni).

 

I have loved Devers from day 1 in the Gulf league. Yes, I was one who thought he should probably be moved to 1B, but I have always said he should get a chance to prove himself at 3B, first. He is improving a lot, so I am currently not for moving him, and I love the kid.

 

BTW, he's a very good baserunner. He has good instincts on the basepaths, and is twice the runner Beni is- not even counting speed.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, but people expecting vintage Sale are going to be sorely mistaken. Remember, the elbow issue didn’t creep in until the summer. By that point, he’d already become incredibly homer prone and had a massive drop in velocity. The last two seasons haven’t really given confidence to the idea that he can stay healthy through a whole season either since he essentially finished both seasons diminished and hurt. If Andrews handed out a guarantee that Sale was gonna pitch like 2015, then heck yeah you go for it. But he didn’t and he cannot. He had his elbow “repaired” with PrP. The only people who know the exact injury are either not allowed to talk or have steered the narrative to an unbelievable point. You don’t treat standard inflammation with PRP and essentially have a 3-4 month re evaluation. You treat a partial tear that way. And the PRP repair does lead people to return faster but also leaves guys further diminished than they were going into the procedure if it doesn’t outright fail when throwing is ramped up again. If you get 150IP and near 4ERA from Sale this year, you take it. The days of 200IP and sub 3ERA are gone.

 

With the holes in place and the financial restrictions, a reset and tear down is needed. Bloom wasn’t just brought in to make magic happen, he was brought in to negotiate team friendly deals or make shrewd trades that work best for the Sox in the long run. I think you’ll be surprised at the direction they will go

 

You keep tooting this same horn, and I'm not going to say I know more about injuries than you, but I still think Sale is going to surprise you.

 

He may have to re-invent himself a little bit, but he started to last year, and had his highest K rate ever while pitching with this issue. There is reason for hope, but certainly we Sox fans must be ready for disappointment as well.

[moonslav59]

If the hill I die on is "Devers is a really good player and we shouldn't mess around with him" I'm fine with that.

 

I'm not for moving Devers, but I will say this- nothing seems to faze this kid. High pressure situations, going through some bad slumps and having some very difficult stretches in the field- he's bounced back from all of them with an air of superior confidence in himself. I'm not expert on psychology, but if I had to pick one guy on the Sox (other than Betts) who could handle a major position change without it creating issues, it would be Devers.

 

For one who seems to love Devers more than anyone here, you seem to have little faith in his ability to adjust.

 

Maybe I love him more! Lol!

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

If the Hamels and Wheeler signings spark a run on free agent starters, #RedSox could be well positioned to trade a starter at the Winter Meetings.

[notin]

@PeteAbe

If the Hamels and Wheeler signings spark a run on free agent starters, #RedSox could be well positioned to trade a starter at the Winter Meetings.

 

After looking at Wheelr's contract, maybe I have been too critical of Eovaldi's. Possibly even Price's.

 

It just proves the old adage that I just made up right now. "It's better to be the guy who drives up the market price than the guy who has to pay it later."

[moonslav59]

@PeteAbe

If the Hamels and Wheeler signings spark a run on free agent starters, #RedSox could be well positioned to trade a starter at the Winter Meetings.

 

Yes, teams in great need of a SP'er might "overpay" for one of our oft-injured starters in hopes of guessing right.

[Bellhorn04]

After looking at Wheelr's contract, maybe I have been too critical of Eovaldi's. Possibly even Price's.

 

It just proves the old adage that I just made up right now. "It's better to be the guy who drives up the market price than the guy who has to pay it later."

 

Don't forget Kimbrel.

[notin]

Don't forget Kimbrel.

 

Dombrowski was the Uber of trade market pricing...

[d-money]

What a ridiculous contract for wheeler but it’s baseball and you see a lot of horrible contracts.

[mvp 78]

After looking at Wheelr's contract, maybe I have been too critical of Eovaldi's. Possibly even Price's.

 

It just proves the old adage that I just made up right now. "It's better to be the guy who drives up the market price than the guy who has to pay it later."

 

Is this a comment on the Pedey contract?

[d-money]

If i am cole i want 30 million per year.

[notin]

Is this a comment on the Pedey contract?

 

No. Everything Dombrowski did...

[mvp 78]

Yes, teams in great need of a SP'er might "overpay" for one of our oft-injured starters in hopes of guessing right.

 

Sale/Price/ERod aren't going anywhere for various reasons. I guess he's assuming Eovaldi could be moved?

[notin]

Yes, teams in great need of a SP'er might "overpay" for one of our oft-injured starters in hopes of guessing right.

 

Maybe we can get Christian Pache for Price despite not being able to get him for Betts

[moonslav59]

Sale/Price/ERod aren't going anywhere for various reasons. I guess he's assuming Eovaldi could be moved?

 

Nobody thought we could ever dump Crawford.

 

We could trade Price by paying part of his deal or taking back a lesser salary dump-type player (Price for Myers suggestion).

 

I wouldn't trade Sale.

 

Eovaldi's injury history has not changed much since when we signed him last year, so I think there is a market for him, even if we have to pay some of his contract or take some salary back.

 

Maybe Eovaldi and $2M a year for Reddick and Marisnik, then we trade JBJ & Betts for pitching.

[Bellhorn04]

Wheeler's 5/118 is only slightly less than Sale's extension, which is 5/128 in present value dollars.

[moonslav59]

Wheeler's 5/118 is only slightly less than Sale's extension, which is 5/128 in present value dollars.

 

And, Wheeler has a longer and more severe injury history- just not recently. Sale's contract starts in 2020 at age 30. Wheeler will be 29.

[moonslav59]

Here's a doozy 3-way I just posted on TS:

 

Sox: Pressly, Margot, Marisnik & Myers

HOU: JBJ & Walden

SDP: Chavis, price, Reddick & $3M (from BOS)

 

We'd then have 4 OF'er, not counting Myers (1B for us) and could trade Betts, if we wanted.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports....

 

Giants To Hire Brian Bannister

By Steve Adams | December 4, 2019 at 8:49pm CDT

 

The Giants are set to hire Red Sox vice president of pitching development away to join their own front office, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). Bannister’s title with his new organization will be director of pitching, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets. As Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe points out (via Twitter), the new position allows Bannister to live closer to his Bay Area home and spend additional time with his wife and two children.