A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[vegasbob]

Here's a good idea, take a still young guy, Rafael Devers, who found his stroke this last season and should only do better as a hitter, and confuse him with a new position (1B) . Plus he did show improvement at 3rd, after a weak start. He also benefits from having Xander beside him to give him on field corrections when needed. Let the kid mature another year while finding another cheap answer at 1B.

[mvp 78]

@Buster_ESPN

 

Yankees' return for a 7-year, $153 million deal with Jacoby Ellsbury: 520 games, 273 runs, Adjusted OPS+ of 95. baseball-reference.com/players/e/ells… Goes down in history as one of the worst signings ever.

[moonslav59]

Here's a good idea, take a still young guy, Rafael Devers, who found his stroke this last season and should only do better as a hitter, and confuse him with a new position (1B) . Plus he did show improvement at 3rd, after a weak start. He also benefits from having Xander beside him to give him on field corrections when needed. Let the kid mature another year while finding another cheap answer at 1B.

 

I'm fine keeping Devers at 3B, but if we are going to use Dalbec next year, and they think he's much better on defense at 3B, the move makes sense.

 

I'm not sure anything can confuse with Devers, but there is a risk, agreed.

[moonslav59]

@Buster_ESPN

 

Yankees' return for a 7-year, $153 million deal with Jacoby Ellsbury: 520 games, 273 runs, Adjusted OPS+ of 95. baseball-reference.com/players/e/ells… Goes down in history as one of the worst signings ever.

 

I cheered when the Yanks overpaid Jacoby by what I felt was by at least double his worth.

[kenmeister]

I don't think anyone was serious about an Ellsbury reunion...

 

The only ex-Sox players I wouldn't mind are Rich Hill and Wade Miley.

[kenmeister]

I cheered when the Yanks overpaid Jacoby by what I felt was by at least double his worth.

 

I thought they were clearly nuts at the time, and that opinion hasn't changed.

[moonslav59]

CWS sign Grandal to $18.25M x 4 years!

 

It does not appear like salaries are going down or leveling off.

 

[Bellhorn04]

CWS sign Grandal to $18.25M x 4 years!

 

It does not appear like salaries are going down or leveling off.

 

 

MLBTR predicted 4/68, so they were pretty close.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR predicted 4/68, so they were pretty close.

 

Yes, but it is $5M more. Makes me think the $11M/1 projected value for Porcello might be close, too.

[moonslav59]

MLB.com suggests this trade:

 

Betts to LAD for Joc Pederson, Dustin May (RHP and their 2nd ranked prospect on the MLB Pipeline) & Keibert Ruiz (C and 3rd ranked)

[harmony]

MLB.com suggests this trade:

 

Betts to LAD for Joc Pederson, Dustin May (RHP and their 2nd ranked prospect on the MLB Pipeline) & Keibert Ruiz (C and 3rd ranked)

MLB trade ideas that just might work

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Last week’s General Managers Meetings presented an opportunity for executives around the league to lay the groundwork for potential trades this offseason. That got us thinking. Where might Mookie Betts or Kris Bryant wind up? Will the Yankees opt to deal for a starter rather than signing a prominent free

 

According to one website, Mookie Betts has a surplus value of $50 million while Joc Pederson, Dustin May and Keibert Ruiz have a combined surplus value of $124.7 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

May or Ruiz alone match or exceed the surplus value of Betts, according to that website.

[Larry Cook]

MLB.com suggests this trade:

 

Betts to LAD for Joc Pederson, Dustin May (RHP and their 2nd ranked prospect on the MLB Pipeline) & Keibert Ruiz (C and 3rd ranked)

 

I saw may pitch and loved his stuff. Better than just about anything in our desolate farm system. That would be a great trade.

 

Ps: We may need to throw in a decent prospect or two to make this trade work.

[notin]

That’d be great if the Dodgers were that generous. But I expect something more along the lines of Tony Gonsolin, Josiah Gray (or Jeter Downs) and Pederson...

[OH FOY]

Dalbec hasn't played 1 Major League Game at 3rd. Devers not 1 Major League Game at 1st. Complicating things not smart. OK to throw anything out there, as just Fans I guess.

At the Major League level who has played who has played 320 games at 3rd, vs. a Player that has played 0 there.

Rather have one player start, at a new Position at the Majors. Easier.

Edited November 22, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

The Red Sox reached out to free-agent utilityman Brock Holt about a new deal after the season, but there haven’t been discussions since they hired Chaim Bloom as their chief baseball officer Oct. 28, Holt told Barstool Sports’ Section 10 podcast (hat tip to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com). Although other teams have contacted Holt, he revealed there’s “nothing serious” brewing between him and any clubs. MLBTR predicts a two-year, $8MM contract for the versatile Holt, who’s coming off back-to-back solid seasons at the plate. The 31-year-old batted .297/.369/.402 in 295 PA in 2019, which is looking more and more like his last season as a member of the Red Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec hasn't played 1 Major League Game at 3rd. Devers not 1 Major League Game at 1st. Complicating things not smart.

 

Devers isn't going anywhere.

[moonslav59]

MLB trade ideas that just might work

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Last week’s General Managers Meetings presented an opportunity for executives around the league to lay the groundwork for potential trades this offseason. That got us thinking. Where might Mookie Betts or Kris Bryant wind up? Will the Yankees opt to deal for a starter rather than signing a prominent free

 

According to one website, Mookie Betts has a surplus value of $50 million while Joc Pederson, Dustin May and Keibert Ruiz have a combined surplus value of $124.7 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

May or Ruiz alone match or exceed the surplus value of Betts, according to that website.

 

I doubt we could get both of these guys with Peerson...maybe one is asking too much.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec hasn't played 1 Major League Game at 3rd. Devers not 1 Major League Game at 1st. Complicating things not smart.

 

Is 3B different in the minors?

 

It's not complicated to keep Dalbec at 3B, if he is the real deal and is viewed as a much better defender.

 

I'm not saying I'm for the move, and I'd like Dalbec to show he can hit ML pitching before I move Devers anywhere.

[OH FOY]

With Ockimey, it would be all about a platoon, so showing his overall numbers matters little.

 

Players not protected at the Minors 2 years in a row that pretty young, its absolutely about the numbers and talent.

They don't feel he will help this club, at the Major League level.

[Nick]

CWS sign Grandal to $18.25M x 4 years!

 

It does not appear like salaries are going down or leveling off.

 

 

What MLB needs in next CBA is Frugal Tax....Tax any club who has say a payroll of $100M or less. Tax rate can be 50% of delta between $100M and actual CBA Payroll.

 

That will help the players.

[Bellhorn04]

What MLB needs in next CBA is Frugal Tax....Tax any club who has say a payroll of $100M or less. Tax rate can be 50% of delta between $100M and actual CBA Payroll.

 

That will help the players.

 

Taxing profits might be one way to do it.

[OH FOY]

What's more telling is if 29 other Major League teams don't take a chance on Ockimey.

[moonslav59]

Players not protected at the Minors 2 years in a row that pretty young, its absolutely about the numbers and talent.

They don't feel he will help this club, at the Major League level.

 

Or, they know he will not be selected, and they took the risk of losing him.

 

I'm sure he's not someone they have big plans for, but I still think he may end up being a decent ML platoon player someday. He does very well vs RHPs, and that's the bigger part of any platoon.

 

Splits vs RHPs

2019 AAA:

.898 (21 HRs in 287 ABs)

2018

AAA

.793 (5 Hrs in 70 ABs)

AA

.968 (13 HRs in 205 ABs)

 

That's an OPS over .900 with 39 HRs in 562 ABs.

 

He may very well get a look at some point.

[moonslav59]

What MLB needs in next CBA is Frugal Tax....Tax any club who has say a payroll of $100M or less. Tax rate can be 50% of delta between $100M and actual CBA Payroll.

 

That will help the players.

 

Something like this should be part of the next deal.

[Slasher9]

Taxing profits might be one way to do it.

 

way too easy to show zero profits tho. or losses. billionaires have the best CPA's money can buy.

[jacksonianmarch]

I saw may pitch and loved his stuff. Better than just about anything in our desolate farm system. That would be a great trade.

 

Ps: We may need to throw in a decent prospect or two to make this trade work.

 

May isn’t going anywhere. He’s pretty much locked into their rotation. You’re not getting Smith either, he’s gonna be their opening day catcher. Joc is on the block, but he’s another one year rental, so it wouldn’t make much sense unless you’re trying to build a Delmon Young tree (possible).

[notin]

Dalbec hasn't played 1 Major League Game at 3rd. Devers not 1 Major League Game at 1st. Complicating things not smart. OK to throw anything out there, as just Fans I guess.

At the Major League level who has played who has played 320 games at 3rd, vs. a Player that has played 0 there.

Rather have one player start, at a new Position at the Majors. Easier.

 

For starters, that exact plan failed with Xander Bogaerts.

 

I’m all for aligning the best defense. If someone can’t learn a new position or sucks at it or it throws them off their game, that’s one thing. But otherwise, if there is a chance for improvement, I’d be all for it.

 

Not sure why Devers not playing 1b is a factor, but Dalbec never playing the position is discounted.

 

It will be interesting to see what the Sox do, if anything, with Dalbec. Certainly he could handle 1b, but if he cannot hit, all he represents is a cash savings. His arm might also make him a candidate for RF, assuming someone is needed there. Or he might be traded. Or simply start the season in Pawtucket (possibly in RF)...

[jacksonianmarch]

I am surprised at the glacial pace of the sox' offseason, to be totally honest. Bloom is the kind of guy who thinks outside the box, but in this case the box is pretty clear. You gotta shed payroll. He hasn't done any payroll shedding to this point and has filled none of his openings on the market. The sox tendered Bradley, so they are stuck with him for now unless someone thinks he is a bargain as a rental at around $11-$13 mil, hint he is not. Based on the numbers, the sox are a JBJ over the first line, meaning they need to shed about $11 mil to get under the LT. If the plan is to get under by moving Bradley, then they need to get a prospect and not an MLBer in return or they will jump over the mark again. If the plan is to move Betts, then they're gonna be able to take big leaguers on, but they will also need to lower the asking price

[Bellhorn04]

way too easy to show zero profits tho. or losses. billionaires have the best CPA's money can buy.

 

True. Some of the key numbers are verifiable though, right? Payroll obviously is. Gate revenue must be. Is TV revenue verifiable?

[jacksonianmarch]

For starters, that exact plan failed with Xander Bogaerts.

 

I’m all for aligning the best defense. If someone can’t learn a new position or sucks at it or it throws them off their game, that’s one thing. But otherwise, if there is a chance for improvement, I’d be all for it.

 

Not sure why Devers not playing 1b is a factor, but Dalbec never playing the position is discounted.

 

It will be interesting to see what the Sox do, if anything, with Dalbec. Certainly he could handle 1b, but if he cannot hit, all he represents is a cash savings. His arm might also make him a candidate for RF, assuming someone is needed there. Or he might be traded. Or simply start the season in Pawtucket (possibly in RF)...

 

For a team like the sox entering a down phase and now shedding payroll, it makes little sense for them to devalue their most precious asset. Devers' proving able to play 3b is just as big as his bat coming of age. He has become a player capable of handling a premium position while also providing premium offensive capability. Also, don't discount the idea of a Devers deal after this season. Devers' 2019 was so good that a repeat performance in 2020 will put him in rarified air in terms of first arb total. He may end up in the Betts category around $10 mil. As he gets more expensive, he will be worth less. My guess is that Bloom is trying to sign him to a deal now and, if unsuccessful, will have his finger on the trigger for a deal. 3 years of arb control of an early 20s superstar 3b will be pretty valuable. With your GM being Bloom, everyone is in play to deal