A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

And guys who are able to replicate their regular season career numbers vs elite competition are more clutch than you give them credit for.

 

Not necessarily.

 

Those "elite" pitchers in the post-season are very often on the tail end of seasons where they have already pitched 180 to 220 IP (counting previous post-season appearances in some cases). That can be a huge factor, and probably one of the biggest reasons a lot of great pitchers don't have great post-season numbers, as we all saw when David Price had a good post-season in 2018 after finally pitching in the post-season after his lowest regular season IP total in his career (not couting the injury-plagued 2016). Prior to last season, Price was labeled a post-season choker, but a definite possibility was always that he was simply worn out at the tail end of all those 200+ IP seasons...

[jacksonianmarch]

And position players just played 162. So it goes all around

[kenmeister]

Not necessarily.

 

Those "elite" pitchers in the post-season are very often on the tail end of seasons where they have already pitched 180 to 220 IP (counting previous post-season appearances in some cases). That can be a huge factor, and probably one of the biggest reasons a lot of great pitchers don't have great post-season numbers, as we all saw when David Price had a good post-season in 2018 after finally pitching in the post-season after his lowest regular season IP total in his career (not couting the injury-plagued 2016). Prior to last season, Price was labeled a post-season choker, but a definite possibility was always that he was simply worn out at the tail end of all those 200+ IP seasons...

 

1997

 

Randy Johnson regular season: 213 IP, 20-4 record, 2.28 ERA

Randy Johnson postseason: 13 IP, 0-2 record, 5.54 ERA

 

I think Randy was just tired from a long season.

 

Of course, on the flipside opposing him

 

Mike Mussina regular season: 224.2 IP, 15-8 record, 3.20 ERA

Mike Mussina postseason: 29 IP, 2-0 record, 1.24 ERA

 

He peaked in the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

1997

 

Randy Johnson regular season: 213 IP, 20-4 record, 2.28 ERA

Randy Johnson postseason: 13 IP, 0-2 record, 5.54 ERA

 

I think Randy was just tired from a long season.

 

Of course, on the flipside opposing him

 

Mike Mussina regular season: 224.2 IP, 15-8 record, 3.20 ERA

Mike Mussina postseason: 29 IP, 2-0 record, 1.24 ERA

 

He peaked in the playoffs.

 

I'd say the 13 IP (and 22 as well) is way too small to make any definitive judgement about. It could be just one bad pitch over 13 innings.

[mvp 78]

Things like WAR are useless for small sample sizes.

[moonslav59]

Things like WAR are useless for small sample sizes.

 

Every stat is, really.

 

No player in MLB history has ever player more than 158 games in the playoffs, total. Only 5 players have over 100 games played in the PO's.

 

Only 3 pitchers have over 200 IP.

[notin]

I'd say the 13 IP (and 22 as well) is way too small to make any definitive judgement about. It could be just one bad pitch over 13 innings.

 

Not to mention, Randy Johnson started games 1 and 4 of that series. He did give up 5 ER in game 1, but 4 of them came in the fifth inning (his last) and he was done in by walks and singles and some shoddy attempts to catch base stealers.

 

He then came back on short rest and started game 4, in which he went 8 innings (for a CG) and gave up 3 ER, but lost...

[notin]

Things like WAR are useless for small sample sizes.

 

Exactly. They're barely differentiated over a full season, let alone a post-season that can be as short as 3 games. A player with 4.5 fWAR does rank ahead of a player with 4.3 fWAR when sorted on Fangraphs, but that level of contribution is negligible.

 

If we started using WAR in the post-season, it would have to be carried out to 3 decimal places just to see differences, and at that point, it's just getting stupid...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think Moon sums it up with "Every stat is useless" -- esp. in small sample sizes... That's how I felt last winter when Felger and Mazz were ignorantly torching Mookie's postseason "averages". Betts had leadoff hits (plus one HBP) and scored the first run in four of five postseason wins -- three straight in the ALCS, and Game One of the World Series (see my post #2504).

 

Such First Strike tallies carry more weight in the postseason, and can be much more valuable than just a higher overall batting average. Just ask any ballplayer how much more stressful and dire playoff games become when their opponents score first.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Another factor that can negate stats in the short postseason is how teams strategize their game plans. Alex Bregman's seeming struggles in the past two postseasons can't just be attributed to choking under pressure, because both Boston in '18 and New York in '19 decided beforehand that he was the one Astro they wouldn't let beat them.

 

Bregman got basically pitched around for two years, as both the Sox and Yanks walked him seven times each. Bregman's batting averages were way down, but he had the Astros highest combined On Base Percentage... and the AL East powers were just fine with that.

 

You know he wanted to swing... but you also know that Cora and Boone are buds and talk often.

[Kimmi]

And guys who are able to replicate their regular season career numbers vs elite competition are more clutch than you give them credit for.

 

No, they aren't clutch. They are just good players.

[Kimmi]

Things like WAR are useless for small sample sizes.

 

Pretty much every stat is useless for small sample sizes.

[moonslav59]

Another factor that can negate stats in the short postseason is how teams strategize their game plans. Alex Bregman's seeming struggles in the past two postseasons can't just be attributed to choking under pressure, because both Boston in '18 and New York in '19 decided beforehand that he was the one Astro they wouldn't let beat them.

 

Bregman got basically pitched around for two years, as both the Sox and Yanks walked him seven times each. Bregman's batting averages were way down, but he had the Astros highest combined On Base Percentage... and the AL East powers were just fine with that.

 

You know he wanted to swing... but you also know that Cora and Boone are buds and talk often.

 

That's a great example or what can happen in small sample sizes. On the flip side, maybe some other players "looked clutch" because pitchers chose to not "pitch around" them, instead.

 

Also, so much of this game is about millimeters, so when we are looking at a short period of time, it's hard to definitively call anyone a choke or clutch because one or two plays might have been decided by 1 millimeter one way or another.

 

BTW, I told my wife before the series, that it would be won by Bregman. I was wrong, but possibly because the managers felt the same way, and made sure he didn't (or couldn't) beat them.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That's a great example or what can happen in small sample sizes. On the flip side, maybe some other players "looked clutch" because pitchers chose to not "pitch around" them, instead.

 

Also, so much of this game is about millimeters, so when we are looking at a short period of time, it's hard to definitively call anyone a choke or clutch because one or two plays might have been decided by 1 millimeter one way or another.

 

You're right on, again. That's why virtually every postseason features unsung heroes like Steve Pearce going off... not even great pitchers can make great pitches to all batters in a line-up -- especially the best batting orders in the game. Human shoulders, elbows and legs get tired.

[moonslav59]

You're right on, again. That's why virtually every postseason features unsung heroes like Steve Pearce going off... not even great pitchers can make great pitches to all batters in a line-up -- especially the best batting orders in the game. Human shoulders, elbows and legs get tired.

 

...and if they groove one to Pearce, because they rather he beat them than Betts, then maybe it wasn't so much Pearce was "clutch" but rather he was the beneficiary of being in the right place at the right time with the best strategy against him in place.

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly. They're barely differentiated over a full season, let alone a post-season that can be as short as 3 games. A player with 4.5 fWAR does rank ahead of a player with 4.3 fWAR when sorted on Fangraphs, but that level of contribution is negligible.

 

If we started using WAR in the post-season, it would have to be carried out to 3 decimal places just to see differences, and at that point, it's just getting stupid...

 

Use RAR per game, and multiply by 100 to get rid of the decimal points.

 

Just have to think outside the box a little.

[notin]

...and if they groove one to Pearce, because they rather he beat them than Betts, then maybe it wasn't so much Pearce was "clutch" but rather he was the beneficiary of being in the right place at the right time with the best strategy against him in place.

 

Well, it’s not that they would rather Pearce beat them than Betts. In either case, they get beat. They just figure Pearce is less likely to make a pitcher pay for a mistake...

[notin]

Use RAR per game, and multiply by 100 to get rid of the decimal points.

 

Just have to think outside the box a little.

 

Get back in the box!!!!!

[moonslav59]

Well, it’s not that they would rather Pearce beat them than Betts. In either case, they get beat. They just figure Pearce is less likely to make a pitcher pay for a mistake...

 

Yes, from their side, that's what it looks like, and from our side, Pearce is labelled "clutch."

[moonslav59]

Betts & the Mets?

 

Mets should trade for Mookie Betts or Francisco Lindor

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Nothing gets the rumor mill churning like talk of a superstar on the trade block -- and that's what's happening with Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts and Guardians shortstop Francisco Lindor. Both players are approaching free agency -- Betts is one season away, Lindor two -- and they're only going

[notin]

Betts & the Mets?

 

Mets should trade for Mookie Betts or Francisco Lindor

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Nothing gets the rumor mill churning like talk of a superstar on the trade block -- and that's what's happening with Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts and Guardians shortstop Francisco Lindor. Both players are approaching free agency -- Betts is one season away, Lindor two -- and they're only going

 

Too bad they have diddly to send back.

 

Hoping for Padres or Braves here, if they deal him at all...

[Swiharts Ghost]

Not a chance we trade Mookie for a shortstop that’s 2 years away .I want the Dodgers and Padres involved also the Braves .

[moonslav59]

Too bad they have diddly to send back.

 

Hoping for Padres or Braves here, if they deal him at all...

 

You're forcing me to say it: how about a 3-way deal?

[notin]

You're forcing me to say it: how about a 3-way deal?

 

I actually expect one.

 

The only three people who deeply love 3 way deals are AJ Preller, Chaim Bloom and you...

[jacksonianmarch]

You’re not gonna get the value you want for one year of Betts at $30 mil. The Sox should look for an immediate replacement in a deal and one other either big league player or high end prospect. The Mets meet that if it’s Nimmo plus

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You’re not gonna get the value you want for one year of Betts at $30 mil. The Sox should look for an immediate replacement in a deal and one other either big league player or high end prospect. The Mets meet that if it’s Nimmo plus

 

No way Bloom settles for anything less than high end MLB ready prospects -- plural. Sox Nation would run him out of town if he took back a .221-hitting outfielder. And if a Betts deal does ever materialize, I'd be surprised if any MLB outfielder is part of the package, because the Red Sox are smart enough to know that no one labeled as Mookie's replacement will ever be able to fill his shoes... at least not in the eyes of fandom, who will be constantly reminded of the guy's status by the meddling mass media.

[jacksonianmarch]

Then you’re gonna get one more year and risk losing him for a draft pick or signing him long term. Both are risky propositions

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Then you’re gonna get one more year and risk losing him for a draft pick or signing him long term. Both are risky propositions

 

I really think that's what they'll do because it will be best for the team in 2020 and hopefully beyond... all the while keeping open the option of finding one would-be contender willing to meet their price.

[harmony]

No way Bloom settles for anything less than high end MLB ready prospects -- plural. Sox Nation would run him out of town if he took back a .221-hitting outfielder. And if a Betts deal does ever materialize, I'd be surprised if any MLB outfielder is part of the package, because the Red Sox are smart enough to know that no one labeled as Mookie's replacement will ever be able to fill his shoes... at least not in the eyes of fandom, who will be constantly reminded of the guy's status by the meddling mass media.

As Boston Globe columnist Alex Speier wrote on Friday:

Most of the speculation has focused on whether the Sox will deal Mookie Betts. Some officials remain skeptical, feeling that the return for a superstar whose market would be limited by his anticipated $28 million-$30 million salary would be too modest to justify moving him. Whereas the Diamondbacks dealt Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis last year with one year remaining on his contract, he was due “just” $14.5 million.

 

Moreover, there was a general understanding that, unlike Betts, Goldschmidt was open-minded about an extension. Would the Cardinals have made a deal if Goldschmidt had made clear an unwillingness to consider an extension before he hit free agency?

 

“That,” said Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, “would have been a problem.”

 

In other words, there’s a chance that teams will steer clear of Betts as a trade target given both his salary and the unlikelihood of extending him before he explores the open market next winter.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/11/15/takeaway-from-meetings-red-sox-are-open-anything/l6guLESkDmy5ZA0vIENt3K/story.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

[jacksonianmarch]

I really think that's what they'll do because it will be best for the team in 2020 and hopefully beyond... all the while keeping open the option of finding one would-be contender willing to meet their price.

 

Knowing who your GM is, I honestly think Betts is moved. You’ll probably be underwhelmed by the returning package but be pleasantly surprised by the production. None of Bloom’s deals have looked like wins at the start, but they almost always turn into a win