A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[cp176]

So true. So much of what the public sees or hears is political posturing. And the bored (or paid off, in scoops) media runs with it. The poor Red Sox can't afford the tax and oh no, they'll lose a draft pick? Ok, better trade our future Hall of Famer who is just about to enter his prime because he wants a top-of-the-market salary that he's earned. If we spin it just right, even the discerning public will accept it...

 

Thanks for posting this. If JH was holding the line on ticket costs or possibly even lowering them, it would be a lemon that could be swallowed I guess. If things proceed as the media spins it or how some on here think that it might turn out, personally i will continue to watch but there is no way I would go near that ballpark for the "experience". Doesn't go along with my philosophy of getting what you pay for. I don't mind and overpay if the product is solid. We all know right that the Sox have a budget. We just have to trade that once in a generation talent likely because of that damned budget! lol Plain speak and plain logic works for quite a few folks.

[Jack Flap]

The Red Sox: We plan to reset the luxury tax next season, just FYI.

Fans: Huh, okay...let's talk about some ways the Red Sox might do this.

Inevitably Some Other Fan: Why do you care so much about John Henry's money?

[cp176]

Okay, I guess I should never say everyone, but very close to everyone did say they were overpays to some extent. "Necessary," "Worth it," or "Maybe could have done it without adding Allen" were common opinions, at the time.

 

 

Hey - are you calling me uncommon? LOL Allen who? I'm just kidding. I really do not mind supporting an opinion that is not common to this forum since i consider myself rather common.

[cp176]

The Red Sox: We plan to reset the luxury tax next season, just FYI.

Fans: Huh, okay...let's talk about some ways the Red Sox might do this.

Inevitably Some Other Fan: Why do you care so much about John Henry's money?

 

 

Isn't that just the way.

[Jack Flap]

I mean, multiple high-ranking team officials (Henry, Werner, Kennedy) have made statements since September indicating that getting under the $208M line is something they would really, really like to do. That isn't media spin or idle fan chatter...that is coming from the team itself.

 

Does that mean they'll definitely end up getting under? Of course not...but for now, it's all we really have to go on, so it only makes sense to take them at their word. It's not like our opinions or input are being considered here, anyway.

[moonslav59]

Hey - are you calling me uncommon? LOL Allen who? I'm just kidding. I really do not mind supporting an opinion that is not common to this forum since i consider myself rather common.

 

I guess I must be uncommon, then.

 

(BTW, the "overpay" was not just about giving 4 prospects for a RP'er. It was also about him being paid like a FA closer, at the time.)

[cp176]

I guess I must be uncommon, then.

 

(BTW, the "overpay" was not just about giving 4 prospects for a RP'er. It was also about him being paid like a FA closer, at the time.)

 

I understand and when you are the very best at something I guess that you should be paid.

[notin]

I mean, multiple high-ranking team officials (Henry, Werner, Kennedy) have made statements since September indicating that getting under the $208M line is something they would really, really like to do. That isn't media spin or idle fan chatter...that is coming from the team itself.

 

Does that mean they'll definitely end up getting under? Of course not...but for now, it's all we really have to go on, so it only makes sense to take them at their word. It's not like our opinions or input are being considered here, anyway.

 

Not to mention, it's not like they are coming here looking for input. They are already operating wit waaaay more information than us as it is and a much better knowledge of how to run a team.

 

I mean, I've repeatedly thorwon out there a David Price-Wil Myers swap as an idea, and even joked I need to call Bloom about it. I'm pretty sure Bloom knows who Wil Myers is (despite the lack of overlap in their respective times in Tampa) and has thoughts about this kind of trade using information I would have no access to. If he read my posts on this one out of 1000 Red Sox forums on the internet, he'd probably say "Is this guy high? Wil Myers? The guy isn't a good ballplayer, plus he is a complete a-hole and has atrocious personal hygiene habits and is NOT a guy I want on my team. Not to mention, Price might be overpaid, but he's still pretty good, and if I moved him I would still need ANOTHER starting pitcher, and I'd have too much money tied up in that new slug of a RF/1B Myers. Gawd some fans are soooo stupid"

 

(This is a purely fictional response. I have no inside knowledge about the personal hygiene habits of Wil Myers and their effectiveness, and no idea if Bloom does, either.)

[Bellhorn04]

Okay, I guess I should never say everyone, but very close to everyone did say they were overpays to some extent. "Necessary," "Worth it," or "Maybe could have done it without adding Allen" were common opinions, at the time.

 

Just about everyone said it was an overpay for Kimbrel.

 

I don't think it was said very much about Sale.

[Bellhorn04]

I mean, multiple high-ranking team officials (Henry, Werner, Kennedy) have made statements since September indicating that getting under the $208M line is something they would really, really like to do. That isn't media spin or idle fan chatter...that is coming from the team itself.

 

They walked it back pretty quickly, though, saying it was a 'goal, but not a mandate'.

[notin]

They walked it back pretty quickly, though, saying it was a 'goal, but not a mandate'.

 

True, but they also let a free-wheeling, farm-killing, big spender go despite that he has been at the helm of seven division title teams, four league champions, and two World Series champions, and replaced him with a frugal sabermetric team builder with a very brief history of success that consists of one wild card team.

[Bellhorn04]

To get under the 208 million mark it appears they have to do at least one of the following:

 

1) Trade Betts.

2) Trade JD Martinez.

3) Trade Price.

 

The first two are certain to piss off a fair number of fans and signal that the team is not fully committed to contending in 2020.

 

The third will not piss off very many.

[Jack Flap]

They walked it back pretty quickly, though, saying it was a 'goal, but not a mandate'.

 

Right, and it doesn't have to be a "mandate" per se for my post to be true. I suspect Kennedy was sent out to walk it back after it was realized that publicly announcing your need to shed a large amount of payroll might not be the wisest idea from either a PR or a business standpoint, but even in that appearance, he said it would be difficult (though not impossible) to retain both Mookie and JDM next year.

 

Of course, I should also note that I've previously expressed my skepticism that they'll actually follow through with getting under $208M this year, but for now, they've given us just about every indication possible that this is something they're taking seriously.

[notin]

Right, and it doesn't have to be a "mandate" per se for my post to be true. I suspect Kennedy was sent out to walk it back after it was realized that publicly announcing your need to shed a large amount of payroll might not be the wisest idea from either a PR or a business standpoint, but even in that appearance, he said it would be difficult (though not impossible) to retain both Mookie and JDM next year.

 

Of course, I should also note that I've previously expressed my skepticism that they'll actually follow through with getting under $208M this year, but for now, they've given us just about every indication possible that this is something they're taking seriously.

 

It's possible to get under, and it's possible to field a competitive team in doing so. But it's just not as easy...

[Bellhorn04]

Right, and it doesn't have to be a "mandate" per se for my post to be true. I suspect Kennedy was sent out to walk it back after it was realized that publicly announcing your need to shed a large amount of payroll might not be the wisest idea from either a PR or a business standpoint, but even in that appearance, he said it would be difficult (though not impossible) to retain both Mookie and JDM next year.

 

Of course, I should also note that I've previously expressed my skepticism that they'll actually follow through with getting under $208M this year, but for now, they've given us just about every indication possible that this is something they're taking seriously.

 

It's going to be extremely interesting to see what they do, that's for sure.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

"The third will not piss off very many."

 

...unless he's still here. Ha!

[notin]

To get under the 208 million mark it appears they have to do at least one of the following:

 

1) Trade Betts.

2) Trade JD Martinez.

3) Trade Price.

 

The first two are certain to piss off a fair number of fans and signal that the team is not fully committed to contending in 2020.

 

The third will not piss off very many.

 

I would think what they get in return for Betts or Martinez would be a big factor in how competitive the team can be in 2020. Having big stars does't guarantee anything. The Sox put Hall of Famers in left field for a half a century straight and wound up with zero titles in that stretch...

[Bellhorn04]

It's possible to get under, and it's possible to field a competitive team in doing so. But it's just not as easy...

 

What sort of win range do you consider 'competitive'?

[notin]

What sort of win range do you consider 'competitive'?

 

90+

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

"it was realized that publicly announcing your need to shed a large amount of payroll might not be the wisest idea from either a PR or a business standpoint"

 

... like, right before announcing a hike in ticket prices...

[Bellhorn04]

I would think what they get in return for Betts or Martinez would be a big factor in how competitive the team can be in 2020. Having big stars does't guarantee anything.

 

No, it doesn't guarantee anything. Nothing guarantees anything in this game.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

90+

 

For me, it's that they have to stay in contention for a playoff spot through the final week of the regular season (which 90+ usually did in the old days, before we had such a disparity between the haves and the tankers).

[notin]

For me, it's that they have to stay in contention for a playoff spot through the final week of the regular season (which 90+ usually did in the old days, before we had such a disparity between the haves and the tankers).

 

Well, I was asked for a range. But if they are in the post-season hunt with 87 wins, that works for me, too.

 

And even nowadays, every team that won 90 games made the post-season except for Cleveland. Milwaukee got in with 89 wins...

[harmony]

At Baseball Trade Values, notin and moonslav receive feedback on their Red Sox trade proposals:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/?team_filter=604

[Jack Flap]

If Noah Song actually has the real-world trade value that site believes he has (I suspect he does not), then the Red Sox should probably trade him yesterday, given that he's about to report for military service next month with no word on an exemption being granted, and may not pitch for 2 years after that.

[moonslav59]

At Baseball Trade Values, notin and moonslav receive feedback on their Red Sox trade proposals:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/?team_filter=604

 

Just a note, I was just trying to come up with an even trade that allowed us to dump Price and get a decent defensive CFer.

[notin]

Just a note, I was just trying to come up with an even trade that allowed us to dump Price and get a decent defensive CFer.

 

Seeing what Betts is worth using their methods is interesting.

 

You come on here, and fans expect absolute top tier prospects for the right to pay Betts $30mill for one year. I keep seeing Gavin Lux, Dustin May and Alex Verdugo tossed about.

 

But if I proposed the Red Sox trade Tristan Casas, Bryan Mata and Jarren Duran for Trevor Bauer, I am pretty sure I’d here “Three of our best prospects for a rental???!? That’s just stupid!!”

 

I like that 1) it has no personal team biases, and 2) I can get feedback from a range of people, especially since it can handle how individual GMs plan to build teams and evaluate players.

[moonslav59]

Seeing what Betts is worth using their methods is interesting.

 

You come on here, and fans expect absolute top tier prospects for the right to pay Betts $30mill for one year. I keep seeing Gavin Lux, Dustin May and Alex Verdugo tossed about.

 

But if I proposed the Red Sox trade Tristan Casas, Bryan Mata and Jarren Duran for Trevor Bauer, I am pretty sure I’d here “Three of our best prospects for a rental???!? That’s just stupid!!”

 

I like that 1) it has no personal team biases, and 2) I can get feedback from a range of people, especially since it can handle how individual GMs plan to build teams and evaluate players.

 

The thumbs up or down feature is hard to value. Does a Sox fan give a thumbs up because it's good for them, or is thumbs up for thinking both sides do well.

[notin]

The thumbs up or down feature is hard to value. Does a Sox fan give a thumbs up because it's good for them, or is thumbs up for thinking both sides do well.

 

Yeah commentary is better, but only a few people offer it up. I’m assuming a thumbs up/down relates to it being good for both sides, but who knows? Probably varies from person to person...

[notin]

If Noah Song actually has the real-world trade value that site believes he has (I suspect he does not), then the Red Sox should probably trade him yesterday, given that he's about to report for military service next month with no word on an exemption being granted, and may not pitch for 2 years after that.

 

I would imagine Song has trade value. Despite his potential military service, he’s still probably closer to the majors than most of this year’s crop of 16 year old Dominicans, who certainly have some trade value...