A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Jax, all that really matters is the 4-1 score in my sig line held this year.

[moonslav59]

Jax, all that really matters is the 4-1 score in my sig line held this year.

 

That's what we all heard from Yankee fans for decades. Now, the script is flipped.

[Nick]

We were 19 games better than you and our team had injuries beyond any level seen before. Think about what would have happened if we were healthy?

 

Also, we have zero injuries outside of Hicks that are expected to linger into 2020. You’ve got your twin ace lefties recovering from arm procedures and both of them showing significant declines in stuff. Your number 4 guy in Eovaldi couldn’t stay healthy once again and while he comes into the year healthy, he essentially had his zipper elbow opened during the year. And you’ve got zero contingencies

 

You're much smarter than that......it's very possible that your replacements actually played better than the 'regulars'. Speaking of injuries, Sox injuries were also significant.

 

I would argue that Price, Sale and Eovaldi being 100% healthy would have impacted Sox wins and losses more than the Yankees and their injuries. I doubt if both teams were at full strength, 19 game deficit would have grown any bigger.

[Bellhorn04]

The Yankees 2019 offensive numbers were like our 2013 offensive numbers - a huge number of guys having career years or close to it.

[jacksonianmarch]

You're much smarter than that......it's very possible that your replacements actually played better than the 'regulars'. Speaking of injuries, Sox injuries were also significant.

 

I would argue that Price, Sale and Eovaldi being 100% healthy would have impacted Sox wins and losses more than the Yankees and their injuries. I doubt if both teams were at full strength, 19 game deficit would have grown any bigger.

 

And having 19 innings of severino means nothing? You got more innings out of your aces than we got out of ours. Also, counting on Eovaldi to be healthy is stupid. He’s never healthy

[Bellhorn04]

And having 19 innings of severino means nothing? You got more innings out of your aces than we got out of ours. Also, counting on Eovaldi to be healthy is stupid. He’s never healthy

 

Maybe Severino is an injury-prone guy too. It's all speculative at this point.

[Nick]

And having 19 innings of severino means nothing? You got more innings out of your aces than we got out of ours. Also, counting on Eovaldi to be healthy is stupid. He’s never healthy

 

All I meant was you can't just 'assume' he would have won 15 games AND THEREFORE the lead would have been 34 games instead of 19.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think we can assume a healthy severino would have won his fair share with our offense. He won 19 last year with a worse offense.

[kenmeister]

I thinks it pre-ordained that the Sox pitching staff will struggle. Now ours isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire at the moment, but our pen is deep and pretty much entirely returning (minus Betances’ 0.2IP). I don’t say that because I think they’re horrible pitchers.

 

I say that because Sale has a shoulder issue that’s clearly chronic and sapped him of his power. This left him almost entirely destroyable against us. As a matter of fact, anytime the Sox could kick us while we were down in a series, Sale’s turn came up and he couldn’t get us out. Now he has an elbow injury that’s clearly more serious than they let on, one that was treated with PRP instead of surgery and one that hasn’t even cleared the healing process. There’s a good chance Sale needs TJS. There’s also a good chance he returns in 2020 with even further diminished velocity due to the PRP repair process. Sale also has missed the final months of the regular season two years in a row. His body type and mechanics scream injury, as many have said on her a lot, and now it’s here, the first year of a brand new contract handed out by DD.

 

Then there’s David “special elbow” Price. David’s special elbow has forced him to the IL three years in a row. His velocity has been falling as expected due to his age and now he’s got this wrist issue in his throwing arm. Price has missed considerable time two of the last three seasons and he enters this one coming off surgery and poor performance. Price has a lot of miles on his treads and his arm is finally showing the wear and tear.

 

In order to keep up with the Yanks and the deep Rays, you need the above two to find their vintage form. Their injuries of late and their sapped arsenal make that impossible. This is why I’m so certain of the outcome this year barring the Sox sneaking Gerrit Cole in under their Christmas tree.

 

I really, really can't believe DD extended Chris Sale. What was he thinking??? Reminds me of when we extended Beckett. At least Pedroia's extension was understandable.

[Slasher9]

Some weaknesses in the Yankees pen were exposed in the postseason. Ottavino and Green were brutal.

 

def. jacksonianmarch thinks all players in pinstripes are the best tho. he doesnt even realize how far they played over their heads this past season with the manfred missile. rude awakenings for 2020.... the list of excuses will be entertaining.....

[Slasher9]

I really, really can't believe DD extended Chris Sale. What was he thinking??? Reminds me of when we extended Beckett. At least Pedroia's extension was understandable.

 

honestly i am just shocked he didnt trade duran on his way out the door.....

[Bellhorn04]

I really, really can't believe DD extended Chris Sale. What was he thinking??? Reminds me of when we extended Beckett. At least Pedroia's extension was understandable.

 

We've been over this a bunch of times.

 

If Sale had a great season this year he would have been a free agent looking for $200 million plus.

 

The extension has a present value of $128 million.

 

So in a perfect world, the extension was fantastic.

 

But it ain't a perfect world, and Dr. Andrews will soon tell us how screwed we are.

[jacksonianmarch]

def. jacksonianmarch thinks all players in pinstripes are the best tho. he doesnt even realize how far they played over their heads this past season with the manfred missile. rude awakenings for 2020.... the list of excuses will be entertaining.....

 

Has nothing to do with rose colored glasses. Has everything to do with reality. We had the deepest team in baseball last year. We weren't the best team in baseball, but definitely the deepest. Even losing Didi, Gardner, and Maybin, we still have multiple contingencies at every spot and at least 6 starting pitchers who are set to be healthy for spring training, all with varying degrees of success at the big league level (Severino, Paxton, Tanaka, Montgomery, Happ, German). I would venture to say losing 190 innings from Severino is exactly the reason why our pen was worked as hard as it was, especially in a year where Montgomery was down with TJS. Having stability and getting length from the rotation will help. None of the pitchers returning have an active injury. They all finished the year healthy (except Paxton with sciatica, but that shouldn't be a long lasting issue). They all showed good stuff through September, even Happ who was throwing smoke in the POs. Provided good fortune in ST (never guaranteed) the returning rotation should alleviate some of the strain that the pen games put on our relievers. I am not naïve to the possibility that Tanaka or Paxton spend time on the IL next year, as a matter of fact, I expect it. But I also don't expect this rotation to be the one that enters ST. I anticipate a pitching addition of some degree. Maybe it is via trade and we package some of our depth together and snag a guy like Minor? Maybe we shoot higher and snag Bauer or Castillo from Cincy. Maybe we dip into the FA market and get Stras, Cole, Wheeler, Odorizzi or MadBum. We have options. And we really only have one unmoveable contract in Ellsbury. Even Stanton's is moveable in the right deal. So everything can be on the table for us. We also don't have a mandate to stay below anything. Maybe the Yanks blow past all levels in 2020 and go for broke? Who the heck knows.

 

What I do know is the sox have already sent out a guideline to get under the LT. This means jettisoning more talent from an 84 win team. This means leaving a hole in your rotation, more holes in your pen, and a hole at 2B. If JBJ goes, then a hole in CF. Lots of holes with no money to patch it up and no prospects or dealable depth of circumstance to make a splash. You've reached the hope and the prayer stage of the offseason. It worked in 2013, so there is a precedent for it, but you're stuck right now. And you're stuck because Dealin Dave saddled your squad with $77 mil AAV for at least the next 3 seasons in arms that aren't healthy and aren't producing like their prime days. You are paying for the past. Those arms are almost entirely unmoveable without some kicker and right now their stock is as low as it can go. So yes, I am fairly confident in the pinstripers. I am confident that our rotation will be better. I am confident that our pen will be better with less of a workload. I am confident that our position players wont see the same level of injuries that they did last year.

[notin]

All I meant was you can't just 'assume' he would have won 15 games AND THEREFORE the lead would have been 34 games instead of 19.

 

Even if you also assume his replacement(s) won 0 games

[jacksonianmarch]

Even if you also assume his replacement(s) won 0 games

 

I don't assume the lead would have been 34 games at all. Maybe it would have been 23 or 24? Who knows. Maybe we would have clinched ever earlier and coasted. Who knows. What I do know is that our backups essentially ended your AL East hopes in early August

[notin]

I don't assume the lead would have been 34 games at all. Maybe it would have been 23 or 24? Who knows. Maybe we would have clinched ever earlier and coasted. Who knows. What I do know is that our backups essentially ended your AL East hopes in early August

 

There was definitely some luck involved. Just like how you pointed out the 2018 Red Sox had too many players having career years, so did the 2019 Yankees. Do you expect repeat performances from Urshela, LaMahieu, Tauchman, and Gardner (who will be back in NY)?

[jacksonianmarch]

There was definitely some luck involved. Just like how you pointed out the 2018 Red Sox had too many players having career years, so did the 2019 Yankees. Do you expect repeat performances from Urshela, LaMahieu, Tauchman, and Gardner (who will be back in NY)?

 

I don't think Urshela turns out to be a .300+ hitter. Maybe he found his HR stroke and ends up a .270 20 guy, maybe he ends up a total flop. But Andujar is there too if Urshela falls off the map and Miggy is a real hitter capable of hitting .300 and driving 30 bombs out of the park.

 

I like Tauchman a lot. Remember, he was an exit velocity find with a good eye. His defense is great. His baserunning is great. I actually wonder if he only scratched the surface with us. Lefties in YS tend to find their ceilings as long as they can stay healthy

 

Lemahieu actually isn't very far off his baseline at all, outside of power. Switching to YS and the short porch for a guy who goes oppo is only guaranteed to increase HR totals. His career BABIP is .344 and in 2019 it was .349. He's hit .300+ 4 of the last 5 seasons. He just hasn't hit this many homers, which is likely a combo of home field and the Manfred Missile. That being said, yes, I think Lemahieu can repeat 2019.

 

Who knows with Gardner. I have written him off before only to have him return with authority. I do not think he smokes 28 HRs again. I am not keen on signing him to be a starter. I am entirely fine with Tauchman, Frazier and Judge in the OF with Stanton at DH until Hicks returns. I think we can better allocate our funds.

 

I think the questions you should also be asking include the following

 

Will Judge miss 2 months?

Will Sanchez miss a month or more?

Will Stanton miss an entire season?

Will Andujar miss an entire season?

Will Voit have effectively a season ending injury at mid season again?

 

You're talking about our 2-6 batters in the lineup from our 2018 run. Our 2-6 hitters on opening day. Those 5 guys missed 18 months of baseball. That isn't going to happen again, so the guys who were pressed into regular duty in their stead aren't going to be needed as much

[kenmeister]

We've been over this a bunch of times.

 

If Sale had a great season this year he would have been a free agent looking for $200 million plus.

 

The extension has a present value of $128 million.

 

So in a perfect world, the extension was fantastic.

 

But it ain't a perfect world, and Dr. Andrews will soon tell us how screwed we are.

 

Sure we have, but I'm still in the camp that says when your starter can't pitch most of August & September and is ineffective in the post-season except for one bullpen appearance, and you have another year to evaluate him, you take the year to evaluate him. I thought the extension was a poor idea from the start. Bogaerts, on the other hand, was a fantastic extension.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sure we have, but I'm still in the camp that says when your starter can't pitch most of August & September and is ineffective in the post-season except for one bullpen appearance, and you have another year to evaluate him, you take the year to evaluate him. I thought the extension was a poor idea from the start. Bogaerts, on the other hand, was a fantastic extension.

 

I agree with you. Had Sale finished 2018 healthy, then yeah, you do it. But he had a mystery shoulder injury that sapped his velocity and he never recovered going into the offseason. That's an enormous red flag, enough to not sign him to an extension. You play out the year and if he plays well, then reward him. You don't take a risk when it's a pitcher's shoulder and when he returns, he looks like a shell of himself

[Bellhorn04]

I agree with you. Had Sale finished 2018 healthy, then yeah, you do it. But he had a mystery shoulder injury that sapped his velocity and he never recovered going into the offseason. That's an enormous red flag, enough to not sign him to an extension. You play out the year and if he plays well, then reward him.

 

But if he plays well the price tag might go up $80 million. That's the rub.

[jacksonianmarch]

But if he plays well the price tag might go up $80 million. That's the rub.

 

Yeah, and if the elbow was the issue, I would probably do it. Shoulder's are tricky. A shoulder injury that then robs a player of their velocity is an enormous red flag.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There was definitely some luck involved. Just like how you pointed out the 2018 Red Sox had too many players having career years, so did the 2019 Yankees. Do you expect repeat performances from Urshela, LaMahieu, Tauchman, and Gardner (who will be back in NY)?

 

I think chemistry is underrated when considering whether a team can repeat with back-to-back World Series titles, pennant flags (or in the Yankees' case), division crowns. All those benchwarmers comprised an unexpected force to achieve a unified purpose. Suddenly, come playoff time, that winning combo was broken up a bit by returning regulars, who understandably wanted to participate... and it had to be an awkward situation for the guys that got them there. Uneasy Yankee fans knew -- how many really wanted to see Stanton replace Tauchman on the roster? Ford, Voit, Maybin, thanks for coming. The 2020 Yanks may well win the AL East again, but it's unlikely that so many different players will ever contribute as much in one year again.

[kenmeister]

Yeah, and if the elbow was the issue, I would probably do it. Shoulder's are tricky. A shoulder injury that then robs a player of their velocity is an enormous red flag.

 

Exactly my thoughts now and at the time. Wasn't the Sale extension a contributing factor to getting DD fired?

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly my thoughts now and at the time. Wasn't the Sale extension a contributing factor to getting DD fired?

 

No one knows. Henry seemed to be 100% in favor of it and made comments about not wanting to make the same mistake they made with Lester.

 

To me if anyone should be blamed for Sale it's whoever examined his left arm before the deal was signed.

[mvp 78]

honestly i am just shocked he didnt trade duran on his way out the door.....

 

Duran isn’t untouchable.

[notin]

Duran isn’t untouchable.

 

And maybe he did try to deal him on his way out...

[moonslav59]

Duran isn’t untouchable.

 

Duran is over-rated.

 

The only thing keeping him from being traded is our complete lack of OF depth.

[moonslav59]

Should we sign Betts to over $300M/10 years?

 

History will be against us, but...

 

Here are the highest contracts of all time (some were not FA signings):

(Not Longterm)

7+ Years

$35.5 x 12 Trout (to 2030- renogotiated)

$33.0 x 2 Verlander (to 2021)

$32.5 x 6 Greinke (to 2021) Renegotiated

$32.5 x 8 Arenado (to 2026)

$31.0 x 8 Miggy (to 2023)

$31.0 x 7 Price (to 2022)

$31.0 x 3 Kershaw (to 2021- renegotiate)

$30.7 x 7 Kershaw (to 2020)

$30.0 x 7 Scherzer ('21)

$30.0 x 10 Machado ('28)

$28.0 x 1 Clemens '07

$27.5 x 10 ARod '17 (renegotiated)

$27.5 x 4 Cespedes '20

$27.5 x 4 deGrom '20

$26.0 x 5 Goldschmidt '24

$25.8 x 6 Lester '20

$25.7 x 7 Verlander '19

$25.6 x 5 Chris Sale '24

$25.4 x 13 Harper'31

$25.2M x 10 ARod '10

 

$25.0 x 5 Howard '16

$25.0 x 13 Stanton '27

$25.0 x 3 Cespedes '18

$25.0 x 7 Strasburg '23

$25.0 x 3 Arrieta '20

$24.5 x 6 Greinke '18

$24.4 x 5 Sabathia '16 (renegotiated)

$24.1 x 6 Trout '20

$24.0 x 5 Cliff Lee '15

$24.0 x 10 Pujols '21

$24.0 x 6 Hamels '18

$24.0 x 10 R Cano '23

$23.8 x 9 Fielder '20

$23.4 x 7 Altuve '24

$23.3 x 6 Corbin '24

$23.0 x 7 Sabathia '15

$23.0 x 8 Mauer '18

$23.0 x 7 Chris Davis '22 (Only 4+ yr deals listed below)

$22.9 x 6 J Santana '13

$22.5 x 8 Teixeira '16

$22.5 x 10 Votto '23

$22.1 x 7 Tanaka '20

$22.1 x 6 J Upton '21

$22.0 x 7 A Gon '18

$22.0 x 4 H Ram '18

$22.0 x 5 J Zimmerman '20

$22.0 x 5 JD Martinez '22 (opt outs)

$21.9 x 7 Ellsbury '20

$21.7 x 6 Cueto '21

$21.3 x 6 M Cain '17

$21.2 x 5 J Upton '22 (renogiated)

$21.0 x 5 R Braun '20

$21.0 x 6 Darvish '23

$20.6 x 4 Porcello '19

$20.3 x 7 C Crawford '17

$20.0 x 8 M Ramirez '08

$20.0 x 8 M Kemp '19

$20.0 x 5 Bregman '24

$20.0 x 6 Bogaerts '25

 

Edited November 8, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

MLBTRs breaks down the Sox (their budget numbers seem off):

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/offseason-outlook-boston-red-sox-10.html

[Bellhorn04]

MLBTRs breaks down the Sox (their budget numbers seem off):

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/offseason-outlook-boston-red-sox-10.html

 

Erroneous numbers again. Drives me nuts. Just for one quick example, they've got Sale's 2020 AAV at 29 mill when it should be 25.6 mill.

 

Why they don't use the far superior Cot's Contracts I don't know.