A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m pretty skeptical on the mlbtr predictions. I know they’re something like 10% correct, but their dollar values are usually close to accurate.

 

I agree that I think the Sox sign one reliever. Strop is a good call as he’s got stuff and intermittent production.

 

There’s zero chance the yanks walk away without a veteran starter. We need an ace, but we might get a guy like Wheeler or Bumgarner just to lead the rotation

[Swiharts Ghost]

In theory if we offload Price and Evo we could be in on Cole or Strass .I don't think that's where the money goes though ...Bloom has alot of work to do and it started tonight .I don't think Bloom can soft shoe this winter he has to be calculated and surgical but he has to be verrrry active .

[moonslav59]

MLBTR projects Porcello getting $11M/1.

 

I was qthinking $12M/2 is the most I'd pay, but I had a feeling he'd get more.

[moonslav59]

In theory if we offload Price and Evo we could be in on Cole or Strass .I don't think that's where the money goes though ...Bloom has alot of work to do and it started tonight .I don't think Bloom can soft shoe this winter he has to be calculated and surgical but he has to be verrrry active .

 

Offloading JBJ gets us to even.

 

Any combination of Betts, JD, Price or Eovaldi could, in theory, give us enough to go large on someone, but I don't think that's what Bllom would do, if he had that much budget space.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Agree Moon .

[vegasbob]

Has there been any news out on Sale's condition, the follow up evaluation ? He's got about 90 days to be ready for ST. Calling Dr. Jackson for an update on Chris's survivability.

[Bellhorn04]

Has there been any news out on Sale's condition, the follow up evaluation ? He's got about 90 days to be ready for ST. Calling Dr. Jackson for an update on Chris's survivability.

 

The latest word is that he goes back to see Dr. Andrews around November 15 for a followup exam.

[kenmeister]

The latest word is that he goes back to see Dr. Andrews around November 15 for a followup exam.

 

I still think the way this plays out is that he doesn't get the TJ surgery until the very end of spring training, just you know to maximize the time he'll miss...

[Nick]

Source: Red Sox did not make any adjustments to J.D. Martinez's contract to help him make him make his decision.

 

The deal remains the same: $23.75M in 2020 (opt-out after year), $19.375M in 2021 (opt-out after year), $19.375M in 2022.

 

This is where DD would have reworked the contract, throw in little more money and maybe extending couple of more years. Again, DD bidding against himself.

 

He did what he had to do with three last place finishes out of 4 years. But, it really was time for him to move on.

[moonslav59]

I still think the way this plays out is that he doesn't get the TJ surgery until the very end of spring training, just you know to maximize the time he'll miss...

 

If he needs it, he should have it on Nov 16th, so maybe he'd help in 2021.

 

I get why they wait and pray, but we have this guy under contract for 5 years, so let's protect as many years as possible.

 

(Not saying he needs it, but by Nov 15th, we should know.)

[moonslav59]

Source: Red Sox did not make any adjustments to J.D. Martinez's contract to help him make him make his decision.

 

The deal remains the same: $23.75M in 2020 (opt-out after year), $19.375M in 2021 (opt-out after year), $19.375M in 2022.

 

This is where DD would have reworked the contract, throw in little more money and maybe extending couple of more years. Again, DD bidding against himself.

 

He did what he had to do with three last place finishes out of 4 years. But, it really was time for him to move on.

 

If DD were still here and had a mandate to get under the tax line, he might not have re-worked the deal, unless it lessened the AVV.

[moonslav59]

A look at our Luxury Tax Budget as of now...

 

$M Player/ Yrs remaining- (+ options+

31.0 Price 3

25.6 Sale 5 (+1)

22.0 JD 1 or 3 (no opt out)

20.0 Bogey 6 (+1)

17.0 Eovaldi 3

13.8 Pedroia 2

4.5 Vazquez (+1)

 

ARB Estimates by MLBTR (Red= possible non tender)

27.7 Betts

11.0 JBJ

9.5 ERod

4.9 Beni

3.4 Workman

3.0 Barnes

2.8 Leon

1.6 Hembree

1.0 Osich

0.7 M Hernandez

199.5 Total

+15 Player Benefits

+ 5 (8 players on ML roster at min salary)

+2.5 40 man roster-minors

 

$222M Estimated Budget

 

(-$15M with no JBJ, Leon & Hembree= $207M)

 

Edited November 5, 2019 by moonslav59

[kenmeister]

If he needs it, he should have it on Nov 16th, so maybe he'd help in 2021.

 

I get why they wait and pray, but we have this guy under contract for 5 years, so let's protect as many years as possible.

 

(Not saying he needs it, but by Nov 15th, we should know.)

 

Of course he should, but I've got a bad feeling this doesn't get resolved until Sale actually starts trying to pitch in Spring Training games.

[notin]

A look at our Luxury Tax Budget as of now...

 

$M Player/ Yrs remaining- (+ options+

31.0 Price 3

25.6 Sale 5 (+1)

22.0 JD 1 or 3 (no opt out)

20.0 Bogey 6 (+1)

17.0 Eovaldi 3

13.8 Pedroia 2

4.5 Vazquez (+1)

 

ARB Estimates by MLBTR (Red= possible non tender)

27.7 Betts

11.0 JBJ

9.5 ERod

4.9 Beni

3.4 Workman

3.0 Barnes

2.8 Leon

1.6 Hembree

1.0 Osich

0.7 M Hernandez

199.5 Total

+15 Player Benefits

+ 5 (8 players on ML roster at min salary)

+2.5 40 man roster-minors

 

$222M Estimated Budget

 

(-$15M with no JBJ, Leon & Hembree= $207M)

 

 

The Sox do need to move one of the SP's. I think Eovaldi is the asiest to move. Plenty of teams were in on him a year ago, and while he spend most of 2019 injured and recovering, that was not anything new and they were all aware of his history before last year. But that didn't dissuade them.

 

I'm not wild about Choo and Odor, but I would deal Eovaldi for both and take the $3mill savings to start with...

[moonslav59]

The Sox do need to move one of the SP's. I think Eovaldi is the asiest to move. Plenty of teams were in on him a year ago, and while he spend most of 2019 injured and recovering, that was not anything new and they were all aware of his history before last year. But that didn't dissuade them.

 

I'm not wild about Choo and Odor, but I would deal Eovaldi for both and take the $3mill savings to start with...

 

I agree, but first I'd see about Price. I might even try to move both.

 

Part of me is leaning towards trading Price, Eovaldi, Betts, JD, Hembree and JBJ.

 

Use the savings to sign moderate FA to shorter term deals (let Bloom be Bloom) with an eye towards making us serious contenders as early as 2021. Reset the tax and then look to fill the biggest gaps with a stud or two in 2021 or 2022.

 

I know many Sox fans will hate this idea, but playing it halfway makes little sense, to me. (BTW, I said the same thing about the 2013 season, where I thought we had played it "halfway" and look what that team brought us.)

[moonslav59]

Here are a few FAs and their projected by MLTR contracts that may interest the Sox-some positions based on the idea that JBJ & Leon may be gone and JD, Betts, Price and/or Eovaldi may be traded.

 

MLBTR Projected $/yrs

 

SP

$17M x 3 J Odorizzi

$13M x 3 D Keuchel

$15M x 2 C Hamels

$11M x 2 M Pineda

$9M x 2 Kyle Gibson

$9M x 2 Tanner Roark

$9M x 2 Julio Teheran (4th in GS since 2013)

$8M x 2 Wade Miley

$8M x 2 Pomeranz (say it ain't so!)

$11M x 1 Porcello

$8M x 1 Alex Wood

$8M x 1 A Wainwright

$4M x 2 Josh Lindblom

$6M x 1 Rich Hill

$6M x 1 Michael Wacha

$6M x 1 Ivan Nova

$3M x 1 Drew Smyly

 

RP

$14M x 3 Will Smith

$9M x 2 Will Harris

$7M x 2 Chris Martin

$6M x 2 Daniel Hudson

$5M x 2 Craig Stammen

$5M x 2 Steve Cishek

$7M x 1 D Betances

$5M x 1 Pedro Strop

 

1B

$14M x 2 J Abreu

$10M x 2 M Moustakas (3B/2B)

$8M x 1 Encarnacion (DH)

 

OF

$14.5M x 4 N. Castellanos

$15M x 3 M Ozuna

$7.5M x 2 Corey Dickerson

$6M x 2 Avisail Garcia

$6M x 2 H Kendrick (2B/1B)

$10M x 1 B Gardner

$8M x 1 Y Puig

$6M Kole Calhoun

$3M x 2 Shogo Akiyama

 

C

$7M x 2 Travis d'Arnaud

$5M x 2 R Chirinos

$5M x 2 J Castro

 

Utility

$4M x 2 Brock Holt (2B, 3B, SS, OF, 1B)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Thanks for the menu... assuming impending payroll cuts free up some funds, I chose four guys at 6 mil apiece: Hill, Hudson, Kendrick and Calhoun. Just to make sure I'd be getting what I paid for, I looked up their individual WAR from last season: 1.4 + 2 + 2.6 + 2.3 = 8.3 cumulative WAR (I know, pitching WAR slightly differs in value, but these are ballpark numbers, since WAR is all about approximations).

 

Then I thought about Mookie and what he's liable to accomplish on his own in his salary-drive walk year... He's averaged 7 WAR for six seasons and already has two years at around 10 WAR. Would it surprise anyone if -- at the prime age of 27 -- he earns another 8.3 in 2020?

Unless Bloom can find some team that will overpay with multiple MLB-ready prospects for Betts for one year (like I suggested when I first began posting), then I'd just as soon keep Mookie in Boston. Ride his multi-talented contributions to contention and give him all the love, attention and respect he craves and deserves in one final all-out effort to re-sign him.

 

I know not getting below the magic reset number will cost taxes and draft picks, but those penalties shouldn't be part of the Mookie Betts situation. No amount of money and draft picks combined can guarantee the Red Sox of ever finding another generational talent as good as the one they already have right now.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for the menu... assuming impending payroll cuts free up some funds, I chose four guys at 6 mil apiece: Hill, Hudson, Kendrick and Calhoun. Just to make sure I'd be getting what I paid for, I looked up their individual WAR from last season: 1.4 + 2 + 2.6 + 2.3 = 8.3 cumulative WAR (I know, pitching WAR slightly differs in value, but these are ballpark numbers, since WAR is all about approximations).

[/b]

 

If I had just $24M to spend and not knowing who we got rid of to make that space(assume no JBJ and either Betts or JD gone), here's how I would spend it:

 

$6M x 1 Calhoun RF

$5M x 1 Strop RP

$4M x 2 Lindblom SP

$3M x 1 Akiyama RP

$6M on Billy Hamilton, Keon Broxton, Juan Lagaress or Jarrod Dyson and a cheap 1Bman (Adams or Thames, if possible)

[Kimmi]

I thought it was silly. Wakefield’s issues were related to run support. Doug Mirabelli is not the solution for poor run support...

 

I think it was a little more than that, but it was still a panic move, IMO.

 

Theo agreed that he jumped the gun on that one.

[moonslav59]

I think it was a little more than that, but it was still a panic move, IMO.

 

Theo agreed that he jumped the gun on that one.

 

It was a panic, but sometimes a panic is needed.

[Bellhorn04]

It was a panic, but sometimes a panic is needed.

 

It was also a relatively insignificant transaction in terms of the talent changing hands.

[moonslav59]

It was also a relatively insignificant transaction in terms of the talent changing hands.

 

Meredith did well, but he wasn't really a game changer.

[Bellhorn04]

A really strange series of transactions was when we traded for Adam LaRoche in 2009, and then traded him away 9 days later.

[vegasbob]

Here are a few FAs and their projected by MLTR contracts that may interest the Sox-some positions based on the idea that JBJ & Leon may be gone and JD, Betts, Price and/or Eovaldi may be traded.

 

MLBTR Projected $/yrs

 

SP

$17M x 3 J Odorizzi

$13M x 3 D Keuchel

$15M x 2 C Hamels

$11M x 2 M Pineda

$9M x 2 Kyle Gibson

$9M x 2 Tanner Roark

$9M x 2 Julio Teheran (4th in GS since 2013)

$8M x 2 Wade Miley

$8M x 2 Pomeranz (say it ain't so!)

$11M x 1 Porcello

$8M x 1 Alex Wood

$8M x 1 A Wainwright

$4M x 2 Josh Lindblom

$6M x 1 Rich Hill

$6M x 1 Michael Wacha

$6M x 1 Ivan Nova

$3M x 1 Drew Smyly

 

RP

$14M x 3 Will Smith

$9M x 2 Will Harris

$7M x 2 Chris Martin

$6M x 2 Daniel Hudson

$5M x 2 Craig Stammen

$5M x 2 Steve Cishek

$7M x 1 D Betances

$5M x 1 Pedro Strop

 

1B

$14M x 2 J Abreu

$10M x 2 M Moustakas (3B/2B)

$8M x 1 Encarnacion (DH)

 

OF

$14.5M x 4 N. Castellanos

$15M x 3 M Ozuna

$7.5M x 2 Corey Dickerson

$6M x 2 Avisail Garcia

$6M x 2 H Kendrick (2B/1B)

$10M x 1 B Gardner

$8M x 1 Y Puig

$6M Kole Calhoun

$3M x 2 Shogo Akiyama

 

C

$7M x 2 Travis d'Arnaud

$5M x 2 R Chirinos

$5M x 2 J Castro

 

Utility

$4M x 2 Brock Holt (2B, 3B, SS, OF, 1B)

 

 

Brett Gardner at any cost and any luxury tax just so he could benched (0 appearnces in a game), then DFA'ed on September 29

[moonslav59]

brett gardner at any cost and any luxury tax just so he could benched (0 appearnces in a game), then dfa'ed on september 29

 

lol...

[kenmeister]

Here are a few FAs and their projected by MLTR contracts that may interest the Sox-some positions based on the idea that JBJ & Leon may be gone and JD, Betts, Price and/or Eovaldi may be traded.

 

MLBTR Projected $/yrs

 

SP

$17M x 3 J Odorizzi

$13M x 3 D Keuchel

$15M x 2 C Hamels

$11M x 2 M Pineda

$9M x 2 Kyle Gibson

$9M x 2 Tanner Roark

$9M x 2 Julio Teheran (4th in GS since 2013)

$8M x 2 Wade Miley

$8M x 2 Pomeranz (say it ain't so!)

$11M x 1 Porcello

$8M x 1 Alex Wood

$8M x 1 A Wainwright

$4M x 2 Josh Lindblom

$6M x 1 Rich Hill

$6M x 1 Michael Wacha

$6M x 1 Ivan Nova

$3M x 1 Drew Smyly

 

RP

$14M x 3 Will Smith

$9M x 2 Will Harris

$7M x 2 Chris Martin

$6M x 2 Daniel Hudson

$5M x 2 Craig Stammen

$5M x 2 Steve Cishek

$7M x 1 D Betances

$5M x 1 Pedro Strop

 

1B

$14M x 2 J Abreu

$10M x 2 M Moustakas (3B/2B)

$8M x 1 Encarnacion (DH)

 

OF

$14.5M x 4 N. Castellanos

$15M x 3 M Ozuna

$7.5M x 2 Corey Dickerson

$6M x 2 Avisail Garcia

$6M x 2 H Kendrick (2B/1B)

$10M x 1 B Gardner

$8M x 1 Y Puig

$6M Kole Calhoun

$3M x 2 Shogo Akiyama

 

C

$7M x 2 Travis d'Arnaud

$5M x 2 R Chirinos

$5M x 2 J Castro

 

Utility

$4M x 2 Brock Holt (2B, 3B, SS, OF, 1B)

 

 

I think a Wade Miley reprise is in order.

[moonslav59]

I think a Wade Miley reprise is in order.

 

I look at the numbers and think this...

 

I doubt Moose gets $10M x 2. I think he gets $8M/1 or $14M/2.

 

I think Ozuna's $15M x 3 looks like the best in terms of quality vs price. (If we trade JD or Betts, maybe he might be an option. If we lose JBJ and can trade Price or Eovaldi, maybe he can be squeezed in, somehow.)

 

Sleeper pick: Lindblom

 

Most likely signings by the Sox: Strop & Calhoun

[harmony]

I look at the numbers and think this...

 

I doubt Moose gets $10M x 2. I think he gets $8M/1 or $14M/2.

 

I think Ozuna's $15M x 3 looks like the best in terms of quality vs price. (If we trade JD or Betts, maybe he might be an option. If we lose JBJ and can trade Price or Eovaldi, maybe he can be squeezed in, somehow.)

 

Sleeper pick: Lindblom

 

Most likely signings by the Sox: Strop & Calhoun

After smashing 35 home runs this year (and 101 over three years), 31-year-old Mike Moustakas has posted 7.2 fWAR, valued at $57.9 million, over the past three seasons, trending upward from 2.0 fWAR to 2.4 fWAR to 2.8 fWAR.

Edited November 6, 2019 by harmony

[Bellhorn04]

After smashing 35 home runs this year (and 101 over three years), 31-year-old Mike Moustakas has posted 7.2 fWAR, valued at $57.9 million, over the past three seasons, trending upward from 2.0 fWAR to 2.4 fWAR to 2.8 fWAR.

 

And he's itching to finally get paid.

[Jack Flap]

After smashing 35 home runs this year (and 101 over three years), 31-year-old Mike Moustakas has posted 7.2 fWAR, valued at $57.9 million, over the past three seasons, trending upward from 2.0 fWAR to 2.4 fWAR to 2.8 fWAR.

 

All this proves is that he's been getting screwed by the free agent market. The last two seasons, he's had to settle for one-year deals in the $5-10 million range. Do you expect him to do dramatically better this offseason, when he's the same player but another year older?