The GM thread

[moonslav59]

S5, I loved your response.

 

I do think we reset after 2021 not 2020, but it may be very hard to keep Betts, if we do.

 

I also think the longer we wait to reset, the worse our extended future looks, and the harder and farther away it will be to rebuild the farm.

 

I'm also thinking about the team's play this year. They piss me off, and I'm not having a rosy outlook for 2020, unless we spend big, and I don't like that idea. Much of the spending and the "win now" philosophy has gotten us into this mess. To keep up with that philosophy just gets us further and further into a deeper and deeper hole to have to climb out of at some point.

 

If we reset after 2021, instead of 2020, we might still be okay, but I think the rebuild will take longer and the down time might be worse. At least we'll get better draft picks by sucking more.

[moonslav59]

I don't know what kind of a salary Smith would command, or if we could even afford him. I try to defer to Mr.Moon on topics of salary since he's the one here who has his finger on the payroll.

I'm now conflicted on the topic of having a lights-out closer. Remember, if we had Kimbrel this year (and his salary) he'd have spent far too much time on the bench wishing we had a lead going into the 9th. Our problem hasn't been that we don't have a closer. Our problem is that those guys in the bullpen have blown too many games before the 9th inning. And yes, Kimmie, I also think that much of that MIGHT be due to the fact that our starters can only go five innings. Or maybe it is that those guys in the pen just plain suck.

Based on what I've seen this year I'd rather have Brandon Workman and his salary as the closer as opposed to Craig Kimbrel and his salary.

 

I'm not much of an expert on the value of non Sox players.

 

I did want Ottavino last winter, but I also talked up Cody Allen, so there's that.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Available or possible available OF'ers this coming winter (from Cots):

(Red = higher UZR/150 from 2017-2019 with 400+ innings in CF)

Outfielders

Kole Calhoun *

Nicholas Castellanos

Lonnie Chisenhall

Nelson Cruz

Khris Davis

Corey Dickerson

Jarrod Dyson

Adam Eaton

Avisail Garcia

Brett Gardner

Alex Gordon *

Billy Hamilton *

Jason Heyward *

Austin Jackson

Jon Jay

Matt Kemp

Juan Lagares

Nick Markakis *

Starling Marte

Leonys Martin

J.D. Martinez *

Marcel Ozuna

Yasiel Puig

Eric Thames*

Mark Trumbo

 

They don't list Maybin who has a +0.2 UZR/150 since 2017. (JBJ is 3.0.) They don't have Perer Bourjos (13.7) listed either, and he'll be a FA.

 

Maybe we could trade for Margot (5.4) or Brett Phillips, who was just traded by the Brewers to KC.

 

Wasn't Hamilton cut or demoted? His bat sucks, but how much worse can it be than JBJ's?

 

[S5Dewey]

 

I'm also thinking about the team's play this year. They piss me off, and I'm not having a rosy outlook for 2020, unless we spend big, and I don't like that idea. Much of the spending and the "win now" philosophy has gotten us into this mess. To keep up with that philosophy just gets us further and further into a deeper and deeper hole to have to climb out of at some point.

 

If we reset after 2021, instead of 2020, we might still be okay, but I think the rebuild will take longer and the down time might be worse. At least we'll get better draft picks by sucking more.

 

Thanks for taking the time to respond, and for doing it in a way that isn't trying to make you sound like you're "right".

 

The thing I find frustrating about this team is that I have no quibble with those guys who play in back of that bump in the middle of the infield, or the catcher for that matter. In fact, I'd try to bring all the 'starters' back for another year. Their defense is better than "good enough" and they're scoring enough runs to win games. How much more can we expect from those guys? There's only one glaring weakness. it's in the position that it'll take the most resources to solve, and barring a completely open checkbook we don't have the resources to solve them. That's frustrating.

 

I keep asking myself how can the #1, #2, & #3 pitchers all fall apart at the same time. I certainly don't have an answer to that but if I were Dana LeVangie I wouldn't be buying a house in Boston right now.

[Bellhorn04]

I believe people sorely underrate the defensive importance of those two guys who run around in CF and RF. I also think the pitching staff would agree with that. While it may be inevitable that we lose one of them, losing both of them would be a comparative disaster. That's why I think he's going to hold on to JBJ until the question of Mookie is settled. I don't look for JBJ to go to arbitration. I believe they'll settle with him before that, if only to see where they stand.

 

I don't see a reset during the winter of 2019-2020. IMO there are only three pieces of the puzzle who are having down years and that's not enough to reset this upcoming winter. Let's not lose sight of the fact that this team is among the leaders in runs scored, we may have the best defensive outfield in baseball, and the left side of the infield is solid both offensively and defensively, as is catching. That's not a team you trash.

 

The problem is the top three in our pitching staff, all of whom are having unexpected down years. A Perfect Storm of pitching, if you will. And yes, we need a closer. Enough of this hogwash of closer by committee and enough of having our best closer pitch earlier in the game (although I was an advocate of it earlier). Brandon Workman is looking pretty darn good to me right now.

 

In assessing this team the first thing I look at is what we've got. IMHO the core of this team is solid enough to give them another shot at a ring and it's not unreasonable to think that our top three pitchers can come back stronger. Going with what we've got makes more sense to me than selling off key players thereby making holes at their current position.

 

Regardless of what he chooses to do, DD is gambling. He's either going to gamble that he can adequately fill the positions of the players he trades for pitchers (with no guarantee that the pitchers he gets are going to be a lot better than the ones he's replacing) or he gambles that our Top Three can come back in 2020.

 

To answer your question, I can see the Sox going over the second line and not the max line in 2020. What happens after that will depend on what happens during the 2020 season.

 

Excellent post Dewey.

[notin]

Available or possible available OF'ers this coming winter (from Cots):

(Red = higher UZR/150 from 2017-2019 with 400+ innings in CF)

Outfielders

Kole Calhoun *

Nicholas Castellanos

Lonnie Chisenhall

Nelson Cruz

Khris Davis

Corey Dickerson

Jarrod Dyson

Adam Eaton

Avisail Garcia

Brett Gardner

Alex Gordon *

Billy Hamilton *

Jason Heyward *

Austin Jackson

Jon Jay

Matt Kemp

Juan Lagares

Nick Markakis *

Starling Marte

Leonys Martin

J.D. Martinez *

Marcel Ozuna

Yasiel Puig

Eric Thames*

Mark Trumbo

 

They don't list Maybin who has a +0.2 UZR/150 since 2017. (JBJ is 3.0.) They don't have Perer Bourjos (13.7) listed either, and he'll be a FA.

 

Maybe we could trade for Margot (5.4) or Brett Phillips, who was just traded by the Brewers to KC.

 

Wasn't Hamilton cut or demoted? His bat sucks, but how much worse can it be than JBJ's?

 

 

Maybin would have been ok, but he’s hardly on anyone’s wishlist. Carpin brought him up at one point as a free agent.

 

If the Sox are in the market for an outfielder, they might not even get a CF. They could move Betts or Benintendi to CF. If I’m looking at that list for potential bargains, somehow I seem to think Corey Dickerson. Not sure why, but probably because he was once non-tendered after a season in which he played in the All Star game, so I guess I think he’s disrespected. Kole Calhoun might be a good option as well...

[OH FOY]

Saw Kiermaier make a unreal catch last night, saved 2 runs. Rays won by 1.

[OH FOY]

Blair saved so many runs during the season, not only because of his Defense, but he played so shallow, it was tough to score from 2nd on a hit, even with 2 Outs, you took your chances, trying to score.

[notin]

S5, I loved your response.

 

I do think we reset after 2021 not 2020, but it may be very hard to keep Betts, if we do.

 

I also think the longer we wait to reset, the worse our extended future looks, and the harder and farther away it will be to rebuild the farm.

 

I'm also thinking about the team's play this year. They piss me off, and I'm not having a rosy outlook for 2020, unless we spend big, and I don't like that idea. Much of the spending and the "win now" philosophy has gotten us into this mess. To keep up with that philosophy just gets us further and further into a deeper and deeper hole to have to climb out of at some point.

 

If we reset after 2021, instead of 2020, we might still be okay, but I think the rebuild will take longer and the down time might be worse. At least we'll get better draft picks by sucking more.

 

Calling it now. No reset.

 

Resetting makes a 2020 title more difficult. And then Sale and Price are two years older in 2021. That doesn’t bode well. If the 2020 fails, then perhaps a major restructuring happens coinciding with Betts departure...

[OH FOY]

Calling it now. No reset.

 

Resetting makes a 2020 title more difficult. And then Sale and Price are two years older in 2021. That doesn’t bode well. If the 2020 fails, then perhaps a major restructuring happens coinciding with Betts departure...

 

Agree, we should be at least in the WC hunt.

[harmony]

Saw Kiermaier make a unreal catch last night, saved 2 runs. Rays won by 1.

Kevin Kiermaier had two defensive gems and a homer in Saturday night's win:

 

MLB Gameday: Rays 5, Mariners 4 Final Score (08/10/2019) | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

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Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Rays vs. Mariners at T-Mobile Park

[S5Dewey]

Calling it now. No reset.

 

Resetting makes a 2020 title more difficult. And then Sale and Price are two years older in 2021. That doesn’t bode well. If the 2020 fails, then perhaps a major restructuring happens coinciding with Betts departure...

 

It's nice to see that you've left the dark side and come over to the side of the enlightened. Welcome!

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Dalbec now with 2 HR in AAA. Dalbec has 70 power (at least) and I'm starting to think he could be an impact player together with his above average defense. If the Red Sox trade Dalbec, they better get a really good cost controlled SP for him--above average defenders at 3b with 70-75 power don't grow on trees.

 

Let's say the Red Sox keep Dalbec and instead trade Chavis for a starting pitcher.

 

Betts RF

Benintendi LF

Bogaerts SS

Devers 3b

Martinez DH

Dalbec 1b

Hernandez 2b

Vazquez C

Duran CF

 

If the Red Sox trade Chavis, they become a little exposed at 2b with the injury prone M.Hernandez, but keeping Dalbec might be the best long term move.

 

Sign closer W.Smith

Trade Chavis in a package for a SP

Trade Bradley for a RP

[moonslav59]

Thanks for taking the time to respond, and for doing it in a way that isn't trying to make you sound like you're "right".

 

The thing I find frustrating about this team is that I have no quibble with those guys who play in back of that bump in the middle of the infield, or the catcher for that matter. In fact, I'd try to bring all the 'starters' back for another year. Their defense is better than "good enough" and they're scoring enough runs to win games. How much more can we expect from those guys? There's only one glaring weakness. it's in the position that it'll take the most resources to solve, and barring a completely open checkbook we don't have the resources to solve them. That's frustrating.

 

I keep asking myself how can the #1, #2, & #3 pitchers all fall apart at the same time. I certainly don't have an answer to that but if I were Dana LeVangie I wouldn't be buying a house in Boston right now.

 

I guess this crap happens sometimes, and maybe I'm reading too much into this lousy season to the point that I've lost hope for a rebound next year.

 

Look at 2012's rotation:

5.23 Beckett

4.82 Lester

4.86 Doubront

4.56 Buchholz

5.65 Cook/8.28 Dice-K/6.22 DBard

We did win the next year, so maybe there is hope.

 

I do think Sale will bounce back, but he is still a big concern. Maybe, I'll feel better, if he finishes this season strong.

I do not expect Price to be better than 2019, which isn't all that great to begin with.

Porcello's departure should be easy to absorb when looking at what he gave us this year, but the fact is, we still need another solid SP'er. How do we get that? If we spend large on a SP'er, what's left over for the pen, 1B & 2B? (Can we count on Chavis to fill 2B or 1B? His OPS is about .700 since his first 14 games.)

ERod is the only guy I have a lot of confidence about. He could get even better by maybe putting up 2018 numbers in 2019 innings or more.

Eovaldi is a bigger question mark than any of the rest.

I have very little confidence in Johnson, Velazquez, D Hernandez or Houck for the 5th starter slot opened by Porcello's likely departure.

 

Yes, our offense should be fine. It could get even better. Our defense is better than "good enough." I still think Cora is an excellent manager.

 

I'm okay with trying to win it all again in 2020 by spending to just below the max cap, but I think doing so will hurt our extended future, unless we only sign one year contracts with the help we add or add low cost player via trades. I do not want to empty the farm any more than it already is. I'm okay with the Andrew Cashner type prospect deals, but we can't be trading any decent prospect who looks to have a chance to make the bigs in the next 2-3 years.

 

I just don't see how we can do it, unless we go over the max line- triggering another draft penalty or emptying the farm- triggering a longer down period when we finally do decide to rebuild and reset the tax. Going for it all in 2020, to me, seems like it will keep us from getting back to the top in near future years. I'm not sure adding a good starter and acouple good pen arms would be enough to make us a top 4-5 contender next year, and I guess that's what tips the balance, for me.

 

Add to that, trying to reset after 2021, when Betts' deal is up,scares the hell out of me.

Edited August 11, 2019 by moonslav59

[notin]

It's nice to see that you've left the dark side and come over to the side of the enlightened. Welcome!

 

Well I still think dealing Betts can be the right move, I just don’t think it will happen.

 

I also think no way Bradley gets offered arbitration unless one of two things happens. 1) JD Martinez opts out. This isn’t so likely because his pay doesn’t drop until 2021 and he can opt out prior to them. And, his 2019 is not quite his 2018. But even if he does, there’s still a chance the Sox re-up Martinez over tendering Bradley. 2) The other chance for Bradley tone tendered would be if Dombrowski isn’t paying attention to the Sox and making every decision blindly. I mention this because it seems like what he’s been doing since last October anyway...

[moonslav59]

Calling it now. No reset.

 

Resetting makes a 2020 title more difficult. And then Sale and Price are two years older in 2021. That doesn’t bode well. If the 2020 fails, then perhaps a major restructuring happens coinciding with Betts departure...

 

I've already said I DO NOT think we will reset in 2020.

 

I think we should. Big difference.

 

Maybe, I'm just to down about 2019 to think the same team with a couple additions can have a decent chance at 2020. The Astros, Dodgers and Yanks will not be getting any worse, and for them, "getting older" means getting closer to peak prime, unlike most of our players.

 

I've lost faith. That is what is mainly driving my opinion to reset in 2020. There are other reasons.

 

1) We can get decent draft picks next year and 2021 by not finishing in the top 10-15 for those 2 years. WE HAVE TO START BUILDING UP OUR FARM! We can no longer spend our way to build the farm. The system does not allow it anymore.

 

2) Resetting the tax after 2019 allows us to spend big in 2021 and the following year or two as well. I know Sale & Price will be a year older, but I'm not counting on Price to give much in 2020, anyways, and Sale is still a big concern. I'm not willing to gamble the extended future on the hopes of Price & Sale leading us to a ring in 2020. (Sure, it could happen, but they could both pitch great, and we'd likely still be the underdogs.)

 

3) Resetting in 2020 vs 2021 makes it easier to keep Betts, and he and Devers are my main "keepers" out of the core we have now. If we try to reset in 2021 and keep Betts, it's a nightmare trying to get under the tax line.

 

Those are my main reasons for wanting the 2020 reset.

 

I do NOT expect Henry & DD to do what I want. I think they both think we can win it all next year with a couple minor tweaks. I do not.

 

[moonslav59]

Well I still think dealing Betts can be the right move, I just don’t think it will happen.

 

I also think no way Bradley gets offered arbitration unless one of two things happens. 1) JD Martinez opts out. This isn’t so likely because his pay doesn’t drop until 2021 and he can opt out prior to them. And, his 2019 is not quite his 2018. But even if he does, there’s still a chance the Sox re-up Martinez over tendering Bradley. 2) The other chance for Bradley tone tendered would be if Dombrowski isn’t paying attention to the Sox and making every decision blindly. I mention this because it seems like what he’s been doing since last October anyway...

 

Calling it now. Betts will never be traded.

 

(See how I did that?)

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Dalbec now with 2 HR in AAA. Dalbec has 70 power (at least) and I'm starting to think he could be an impact player together with his above average defense. If the Red Sox trade Dalbec, they better get a really good cost controlled SP for him--above average defenders at 3b with 70-75 power don't grow on trees.

 

Let's say the Red Sox keep Dalbec and instead trade Chavis for a starting pitcher.

 

Betts RF

Benintendi LF

Bogaerts SS

Devers 3b

Martinez DH

Dalbec 1b

Hernandez 2b

Vazquez C

Duran CF

 

If the Red Sox trade Chavis, they become a little exposed at 2b with the injury prone M.Hernandez, but keeping Dalbec might be the best long term move.

 

Sign closer W.Smith

Trade Chavis in a package for a SP

Trade Bradley for a RP

 

You legitimately don’t understand the 20-80 power ratings. Judge has 70 power. Dalbec does not

[notin]

Calling it now. Betts will never be traded.

 

(See how I did that?)

 

 

 

I don’t think he will be. But I do think he should be. Heck I think the Sox should have already dealt him...

[moonslav59]

I don’t think he will be. But I do think he should be. Heck I think the Sox should have already dealt him...

 

I know. It was the same as me saying we won't reset but I think we should.

[notin]

You legitimately don’t understand the 20-80 power ratings. Judge has 70 power. Dalbec does not

 

Actually....

 

 

https://2080baseball.com/reports/bobby-dalbec/

[moonslav59]

You legitimately don’t understand the 20-80 power ratings. Judge has 70 power. Dalbec does not

 

Maybe he'll have 70 HRs over his 4-5 year utility player career.

[notin]

I know. It was the same as me saying we won't reset but I think we should.

 

The plan should be as easy as the directions on a shampoo bottle.

 

1. Deal Betts

2. Reset

3. Sign Betts...

[moonslav59]

Actually....

 

 

https://2080baseball.com/reports/bobby-dalbec/

 

...and...

 

He has 54 HRs and 110 XBHs in his last 841 ABs in the minors.

 

That's about 36 HRs and 74 XBHs per 630 ABs.

[moonslav59]

The plan should be as easy as the directions on a shampoo bottle.

 

1. Deal Betts

2. Reset

3. Sign Betts...

 

Perfect for my 2020 reset plan.

 

Dealing Betts (and other lame duck players) would help rebuild the farm, lower our tax budget and allow us to spend large again in 2021.

 

Sale may have reinvented himself by then.

[oldtimer]

I guess this crap happens sometimes, and maybe I'm reading too much into this lousy season to the point that I've lost hope for a rebound next year.

 

Look at 2012's rotation:

5.23 Beckett

4.82 Lester

4.86 Doubront

4.56 Buchholz

5.65 Cook/8.28 Dice-K/6.22 DBard

We did win the next year, so maybe there is hope.

 

I do think Sale will bounce back, but he is still a big concern. Maybe, I'll feel better, if he finishes this season strong.

I do not expect Price to be better than 2019, which isn't all that great to begin with.

Porcello's departure should be easy to absorb when looking at what he gave us this year, but the fact is, we still need another solid SP'er. How do we get that? If we spend large on a SP'er, what's left over for the pen, 1B & 2B? (Can we count on Chavis to fill 2B or 1B? His OPS is about .700 since his first 14 games.)

ERod is the only guy I have a lot of confidence about. He could get even better by maybe putting up 2018 numbers in 2019 innings or more.

Eovaldi is a bigger question mark than any of the rest.

I have very little confidence in Johnson, Velazquez, D Hernandez or Houck for the 5th starter slot opened by Porcello's likely departure.

 

Yes, our offense should be fine. It could get even better. Our defense is better than "good enough." I still think Cora is an excellent manager.

 

I'm okay with trying to win it all again in 2020 by spending to just below the max cap, but I think doing so will hurt our extended future, unless we only sign one year contracts with the help we add or add low cost player via trades. I do not want to empty the farm any more than it already is. I'm okay with the Andrew Cashner type prospect deals, but we can't be trading any decent prospect who looks to have a chance to make the bigs in the next 2-3 years.

 

I just don't see how we can do it, unless we go over the max line- triggering another draft penalty or emptying the farm- triggering a longer down period when we finally do decide to rebuild and reset the tax. Going for it all in 2020, to me, seems like it will keep us from getting back to the top in near future years. I'm not sure adding a good starter and acouple good pen arms would be enough to make us a top 4-5 contender next year, and I guess that's what tips the balance, for me.

 

Add to that, trying to reset after 2021, when Betts' deal is up,scares the hell out of me.

 

I am beginning to wonder if Cora is a good manager. His spring training approach laid an egg and his concept of resting players has left our lineup weak at times. I am for giving him more time but perhaps he has some flaws which need to be addressed.

[a700hitter]

I am beginning to wonder if Cora is a good manager. His spring training approach laid an egg and his concept of resting players has left our lineup weak at times. I am for giving him more time but perhaps he has some flaws which need to be addressed.

Last season everything worked perfectly. This season has been challenging, and Cora has not met the challenge. This team has too much talent to be this far out of a playoff spot playing so poorly at home.

 

The Mets' manager Callaway was exposed as a buffoon last season, but this latest winning streak of 15 of 16 has some people thinking that he knows what he is doing. He does not. He is still a buffoon like he was last season. Maybe Cora has been a buffoon all along too.

[moonslav59]

I am beginning to wonder if Cora is a good manager. His spring training approach laid an egg and his concept of resting players has left our lineup weak at times. I am for giving him more time but perhaps he has some flaws which need to be addressed.

 

I still really like Cora, but I've always hated the scheduled rest days no matter how hot or needy the player is.

[jacksonianmarch]

There are 7.5 weeks left in the season. Scheduled off days at this point are only for teams out of it or with a big lead. If the Sox are serious about getting into the POs, then it’s all hands on deck until the season ends. With TB winning, the Sox are now 8 out in the L column. It’s s*** or get off the pot time

[notin]

There are 7.5 weeks left in the season. Scheduled off days at this point are only for teams out of it or with a big lead. If the Sox are serious about getting into the POs, then it’s all hands on deck until the season ends. With TB winning, the Sox are now 8 out in the L column. It’s s*** or get off the pot time

 

I think the Sox have already quit. They’re not hitting Chris Owings in leadoff because it’s a proven path to success...